Federal election minus two days

Intelligence from Goldstein and Fowler, plus a detailed survey on the gender electoral gap and related political attitudes.

The final Ipsos poll for the Financial Review will apparently be along later today, which so far as national polling is concerned will just leave Newspoll, to be published in The Australian on Friday evening if 2019 is any guide. No doubt though there will be other polling of one kind or another coming down the chute over the next few days. For now:

Tom Burton of the Financial Review offers reports a Redbridge poll of Goldstein conducted for Climate 200 has Liberal member Tim Wilson on 36.0% and teal independent Zoe Daniel on 26.9% with 8.4% undecided, and that 52.7% of voters for all other candidates would put Daniel ahead on preferences compared with 12.8% for Wilson and 34.5% undecided. Removing the undecided at both ends of the equation, this produces a final winning margin for Daniel of 4.6%.

• In an article that otherwise talks up the threat facing Kristina Keneally in Fowler, The Australian reports that “senior Coalition sources said they expected Ms Keneally to hold the seat”. The report also identifies seats being targeted by the major parties over the coming days, none of which should come as too much of a surprise, and talks of “confidence increasing in Coalition ranks that Scott Morrison is making inroads in outer-suburban seats”.

• The Australian National University’s Centre for Social Research and Methods have published results of a survey of 3587 respondents conducted from April 11 to 26 in a report entitled “Australians’ views on gender equity and the political parties”. Among many others things, this includes a result on voting intention showing the Coalition on 29.2% among women and 34.5% among men; Labor on 33.4% among women and 36.5% among men; the Greens on 19.8% among women and 12.2% among men; others on 9.2% among women and 14.0% among men; and 8.4% of women undecided compared with 2.8% of men.

• I had an article in Crikey yesterday considering the role of tactical voting in the campaign, which among other things notes the incentive for Labor supporters to back teal independents to ensure they come second and potentially defeat Liberals on preferences, and the conundrum they face in the Australian Capital Territory Senate race, where just enough defections will help independent David Pocock defeat Liberal incumbent Zed Seselja, but too many will result in him winning a seat at the expense of Labor’s Katy Gallagher instead.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,043 comments on “Federal election minus two days”

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  1. Tricot: one of the 6PR shockjocks regularly appeared on 2GB in Sydney last year to regularly bag out Mark McGowan over the border closures, it wasn’t Liam Barlett, trying to remember who it was instead.

  2. P1:
    One of those options is incapable of actually getting elected.

    I also think the Greens massively underrate the point that one of the biggest impacts Australia can have is as a voice encouraging change from others (rather than a voice encouraging the opposite as it is now with Morrison), since cutting our emissions is nothing if the world is not with us, which against underlines the importance of GETTING INTO OFFICE rather than being the complaining voice on the hill demanding perfection or nothing.

  3. Pauline Gets Covid:
    I don’t know if PHON has degrees of antithesis towards Asian Australians but wouldn’t it be interesting if Pauline’s Covid was so severe that she was unable to resume her seat in the Senate and was replaced by an Asian Australian. I presume by his name that he is of Indian or Sri Lankan descent.

  4. “WWP: “Blather. Deflect. Obfuscate.”

    It’s a simple question WWP. Let me give you a hint to the answer. The number starts with a zero.”

    It was the wrong question sweetie, it is a question that looks at the past, it is a question to help climate criminals, it is dishonest and misleading. The dumbness of a political gotcha with the nastiness of someone happy to drown a school of kids so long as they can make a buck.

    Absolutely dishonest, disingenuous absolutely disgusting. Shame on you.

  5. WWP: “Secondly in economies that are ‘smarter than fucking stupid’ they are transitioning to low carbon and green steel production. ”

    Me: “What countries, and what percentage of the steel that they produce is from green energy?”

    WWP: “Blather. Deflect. Obfuscate.”

    Me: “It’s a simple question WWP. Let me give you a hint to the answer. The number starts with a zero.”

    WWP: “Blather. Deflect. Obfuscate [snip] it is a question that looks at the past [snip] Blather. Deflect. Obfuscate”

    It’s a statement of the present. You know what they also call that? Reality.

  6. Just Quietly –
    Can’t speak for 2 million people in Hermit Kingdom, but I suspect we are much the same here as in the rest of urban Australia….
    Purely from my perspective in the seat of Perth, it is barely noticeable there is an election on…….
    There is not a lot of visual stuff around for any of the majors and the local wisdom is that two seats – namely Swan and Peace – should be heading to the Red side of the ledger…..Hopefully, this is the case.
    The seat of Hasluck has been touted as a possible but that will depend upon if there is some kind of swing on….
    Beyond this seats of Tangney and Moore have never been on the radar at any time other than in the West’s newspaper panic mode a few months ago.
    There is not much talk of Labor losses here though Cowan is on a very skinny margin. The Labor member is a good one
    That leaves us with Curtin……
    This is the interesting as Julie Bishop’s old seat has not encourage Julie Bishop to do anything to help save it for the Liberals. She was attacked in the local West because she had not rallied to the flag.
    The fact that a Liberal Blue Blood in Chaney is standing and seems to be doing well, might be one more seat which does not go to Labor but is lost to the Liberals….
    The current member for Curtin has been all but invisible for the last three years and I am not sure this had gone down too well in Liberal heartland….I will believe it when I see it, such is the inroads being made by Teal type candidates, who knows?

  7. “I get it – you think if people don’t instantly support 100% perfect action on climate they’re evil and wrong and you just need to keep yelling at them until they 100% agree with you.”


    No, I think people who willfully ignore the science of climate change are quite simply climate deniers. What other way is there to describe them?

    We either take enough action to avert more catastrophic climate change or we don’t – there is no middle ground. It’s either good enough or it’s not good enough. Labor are nowhere near good enough and neither is the Coalition.

  8. citizen @ #899 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 5:51 pm

    poroti says:
    Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 5:38 pm
    happyezs at 5:32 pm

    How does Pauline survive a hoax?
    Easy peasy, Invermectin ,a dose of hoax cure clears up hoax diseases in no time.

    Gosh, if she has taken Invermectin she should be aware of the article someone posted a few days ago that around two thirds of users were suffering long term incontinence.

    What a pisser!

  9. How many Indis will win in addition to current 3 + 2 KAP/Centre Alliance (Katter/Sharkie, Haines, Wiklie and Steggall)?

    5 + how many extra. Go!

  10. “I also think the Greens massively underrate the point that one of the biggest impacts Australia can have is as a voice encouraging change from others”


    Once we actually change ourselves, that is. Until then we’d just look like massive hypocrites, well Labor and the Coalition would anyway.

  11. Evan…Ollie Petersen? Afternoon shift…3-6pm…….His wisdom was such that when the NSW former premier quit, he openly touted her to become PM……Mind you, he is from NSW originally.

  12. It’s Time says:
    Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 5:48 pm

    I think the phrase “Angel of Death” predates Mengele by a couple of thousand years. Should anything which was appropriated by the Nazis 80+ years ago or attributed to them now be forbidden? A’Court may be too young to even know the Nazi connection.


    Dead right. I believe it goes back to the first passover where the angel of death took the Egyptian first born, but spared the Hebrews. Even though Mengele was nicknamed ‘the Angel of Death’ this is hugely meaningless to most Australians, many of whom are ignorant of the Holocaust (such as Catherine Deves, who made far more direct Nazi references in her vicious attacks on young trans people).

    Personally, I am sick to death of Liberal party people in desperation misappropriating the Holocaust in some kind of faux outrage in order to steer Jewish people in inner city Liberal held seats away from the Teals (and that includes Jewish people like Frydenberg). If there is anyone who is being utterly disgusting and contemptible in the misuse of Holocaust references, it is the Liberal Party, not people like Holmes a Court.

  13. “It’s a statement of the present. You know what they also call that? Reality.”

    It is asking what per centage of transit is by horse as the first model t ford rolls off the assembly line, and thinking that is smart.

    Go talk to someone else you lack the honesty and intelligence for this.

  14. It is a bare-faced scientific lie to state that Liberals would deliver a global 3 degrees, Labor will deliver a global 2 degrees and the Teals would deliver a global 1.5 degrees.

    When do we invade the rest of the world which is delivering 98% of CO2 emissions to force this sort of outcome.

    Of course if you goal is anything but Labor at any cost, go ahead and lie. Morrison does the same. All the time.

  15. I still think it will be a hung parliament. ScoMo has alienated enough city moderates to cost him his majority. People unfortunately aren’t sold on the Labor alternative though. Labor may well pick up to 8 seats but then lose a few marginals so therefore no majority is forthcoming. Even on 74 seats it makes no sense for Albo to deals as it will come back and bite them like the Gillard years did. Let ScoMo stay in power propped up by the crossbench and then next time around you can do what Tony Abbott did in 2013. It also neutralises the Greens and their nutty demands.

  16. Boerwar: “When do we invade the rest of the world which is delivering 98% of CO2 emissions to force this sort of outcome.”

    Australia is the largest emitter of carbon per-capita in the world. We won’t be able to force anything until we reduce our carbon output. Then, and only then, can we lecture others about being good global citizens.

  17. Getting away from the Green-ALP argy bargy, there’s been big moves in the betting markets, with some real surprises;

    WERRIWA: ALP $1.33 (was $1.05)
    BRISBANE: ALP now favourites to win
    BASS: ALP: $1.75 (was $2)
    BOOTHBY: ALP $1.20 (was $1.28)
    BANKS, LA TROBE, DEAKIN, FLYNN – LNP now hot favs to win these seats

  18. I knew we could rely on someone to chime in with the usual morally bankrupt argument against taking any action 🙁

  19. Evan – again – Perhaps Gareth Parker?
    He turns up every now and then in Eastern States. He has a breakfast program that nobody much wants to listen to as he confuses the time period 5 am to 9 am as morning radio….I think his ratings have slipped at the same speed as Bartlett’s…Got to remember that 6PR is Sydney’s 2GB and the audience profile is much the same…mainly older/conservative/Liberal voting males but with their female counterparts chipping in for good measure….. I listen to it purely to hear what the Blue side of town is whinging about currently…..

  20. I’m not anti green but the ALP is about winning elections and you can’t do that with 10% of the vote. The ALP maybe won’t have the perfect policy on climate but it will be implemented and improved incrementally. The greens know this but profit off this rubbish about both of the old parties being the same. Our only hope of getting some action is the ALP otherwise let’s just give up and watch Barnaby Joyce steer the debate. As Gough said only the impotent are pure.

  21. blockquote>GhostWhoVotes@GhostWhoVotes
    #Ipsos Poll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 35 ALP 36 GRN 13 ON 5 UAP 3 Others 8 #ausvotes

  22. Poor approval ratings for Mr Morrison.

    Albanese with positive approval and ahead on PPM. Interesting, but it seems a Labor skewing pollster…

  23. And the Liberal Primary vote has barely moved and is still below that of Labor…
    Gee the leakage to the Teals must be something…

  24. 2 sleeps to go

    Bluey reckons that most of the MSM front pages were reasonably good for Labor on this day.

    Holmes a Court may sue over what he regards as fake claims of anti-semitism. Frydenberg has named himself as a Jew and his seat has a high proportion of jewish voters. ‘The Age’ reports Frydenberg as having made the claims.

    After having been the target of name mispronunciations and the usual gnawing at the edges that non-anglophone politicians get from the Democracy Murdercrats, Albanese has reversed the ferret with a rousing reception from Australian Italians. Bluey hears Joyce routinely and deliberately mispronouncing Albanese’s name.

    The AEC has only one job and three years to do it in. Saturday is not looking 100%, ATM.

    BOM reckons it is going to piss down in Brissie on polling day. Bluey is wet all the time so he doesn’t have a clue whether this might affect human voting patterns.

    Bluey heard a flock of Black Cockatoos flying overhead. These are traditional harbingers of political death. Bluey reckons that Morrison is goooooooooooooooooooorn.

    Bluey notes that a lot of political cartooning is lazy. It is doing same same for the majors but it rarely tackles the odds and sods with any rigour.

    Bluey notes that some no-name croc is trying to do a cross-species ring in. Forget it. crocs are crocks.

    Blluey reckons that the Albanese-Wong government announcement is an easy target for Right ratbags and is an own goal.

    What happens on the paddock stays on the paddock. But…. Bluey reckons that if Albo had tackled the kid, the kid would have stayed down.

    Falinski is the latest Liberal to be forced to ditch sneaky co-opted and compromised third parties in his advertising. If you have no shame it is easy. You run the stuff until you are forced to take it down. Then you take it down. No further action required. Scum tactics, of course but then what would any reasonable person expect from a Corruption of Thieves.

    Not at all shamed by being told by the AEC to pull down its fake news ‘Pocock is a Greens’ schtick, Advance Australia is now doing grubby phone calls.

    Amanda Stoker is actively courting religious extremist vote in Queensland – with some of the latter having some distinctly vicious tendencies.

    Bluey reckons this a first: a federal department referring the Government of he day to the AEC!

    Score for the day. Economy on the agenda. Deficits! The Albanese-Wong duo exhumes the Whitlam Cairns duo. The Costings! Zero to the rest except for -.5 to Albanese.

    Cumulative score: Morrison 3; Albanese 4; Joyce .5; Bandt 0; Palmer +.5; Teals +.5.

    Bluey continues to predict a majority Labor Government with a small number of seats to the good.

  25. Ch9 news showed the closed borders thing. Ch10 news didn’t.

    Once again, that Monthly article rings true about sections of the media focusing on issues that don’t matter to voters.

  26. One good poll does not a summer make, but added to the other three already out, maybe, just maybe the writing is literally on the wall for the Blue side…..

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