The final Ipsos poll for the Financial Review will apparently be along later today, which so far as national polling is concerned will just leave Newspoll, to be published in The Australian on Friday evening if 2019 is any guide. No doubt though there will be other polling of one kind or another coming down the chute over the next few days. For now:
• Tom Burton of the Financial Review offers reports a Redbridge poll of Goldstein conducted for Climate 200 has Liberal member Tim Wilson on 36.0% and teal independent Zoe Daniel on 26.9% with 8.4% undecided, and that 52.7% of voters for all other candidates would put Daniel ahead on preferences compared with 12.8% for Wilson and 34.5% undecided. Removing the undecided at both ends of the equation, this produces a final winning margin for Daniel of 4.6%.
• In an article that otherwise talks up the threat facing Kristina Keneally in Fowler, The Australian reports that “senior Coalition sources said they expected Ms Keneally to hold the seat”. The report also identifies seats being targeted by the major parties over the coming days, none of which should come as too much of a surprise, and talks of “confidence increasing in Coalition ranks that Scott Morrison is making inroads in outer-suburban seats”.
• The Australian National University’s Centre for Social Research and Methods have published results of a survey of 3587 respondents conducted from April 11 to 26 in a report entitled “Australians’ views on gender equity and the political parties”. Among many others things, this includes a result on voting intention showing the Coalition on 29.2% among women and 34.5% among men; Labor on 33.4% among women and 36.5% among men; the Greens on 19.8% among women and 12.2% among men; others on 9.2% among women and 14.0% among men; and 8.4% of women undecided compared with 2.8% of men.
• I had an article in Crikey yesterday considering the role of tactical voting in the campaign, which among other things notes the incentive for Labor supporters to back teal independents to ensure they come second and potentially defeat Liberals on preferences, and the conundrum they face in the Australian Capital Territory Senate race, where just enough defections will help independent David Pocock defeat Liberal incumbent Zed Seselja, but too many will result in him winning a seat at the expense of Labor’s Katy Gallagher instead.
Ipsos has always had a tendency to overestimate the Green vote have they not? I’m not sure how much their methodology has been updated in that regard since last time, admittedly.
Having said that, I think Queensland will be a place to watch for Green votes. There are no Teal style independents here – although strong independent campaigns in Groom and Hinkler. Will ex-LNP voters who would otherwise vote Teal, vote Green?
#Ipsos Poll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 35 ALP 36 GRN 13 ON 5 UAP 3 Others 8 #ausvotes
Those are devestating numbers for the LNP. At least 2 points, maybe more, of that 8 for ‘Others’ is because of ALP voters strategically voting for Teals in Teals contested seats. Every seat of which is LNP, and the ALP had no chance of winning. Outside of those teals seats, the ALP will have a 38 PV or higher.
If the opinion polls are near accurate the Lib/nats combined primary is indeed stuck at 35/36%
5.5-6.5% swing against the Lib/nats
4%+ swing to Labor in the primary vote
Labor getting into the mid to high 80’s isn’t too far fetch
On every metric in Ipsos Labor is in front
GlenO at 4.51 re replacement Senators…
It is only a ‘convention’ for State Premiers to replace resigned/deceased Senators with one a) from the previous Senator’s party; and/or b) recommended by that party.
Askin and Bjelke-Petersen were legally entitled to ignore this convention in their participation in the Tory conspiracy against Whitlam.
“Maybe. Usually that’s making sure only voters who don’t vote for you are unable to vote.
Here, it seems it’s just people with Covid. Which will include a load of LNPers.
Unless they have targetted those who are ALP and with Covid…”
Given the honour system element to Covid testing at the moment, they’re targeting people who want to do the right thing and follow the stated rules, as well as the demographics of Covid cases.
That does have a partisan bent although I think the AEC are simply under resourced in this instance.
I do worry that if the Coalition win we’re going to see voter ID laws and other such shenanigans (wouldn’t be surprised if they end compulsory voting) so they can counter demographic shifts in the electorate. I also worry that Labor wouldn’t fight this but would actively welcome it.
Ipsos 53/47 means Newspoll 54/46 – game over
citizen @ #894 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 5:51 pm
After giving everyone else the shits for years that’s karma.
“ It is only a ‘convention’ for State Premiers to replace resigned/deceased Senators with one a) from the previous Senator’s party; and/or b) recommended by that party.”
This isn’t true. The constitution was amended in the 70s and the replacement must now come from the party that the former senator was elected as, and must be a member at the time they’re chosen.
In addition, if someone is chosen by a Parliament and ceases to be a member of the party before they take their seat, the choosing of that person is deemed to not have taken place, and the state parliament must again choose someone. This is to prevent state parliaments appointing a member of the party other than the person selected by the party for the nomination. The parties invariably have rules that instantly expel someone if they are chosen by a state parliament without being the nominated candidate.
Excluding undecided voters, Labor’s primary vote has fallen 2 points to 36 per cent, while the Coalition’s first preferences have jumped 3 points from 32 per cent to 35 per cent.
The Greens are on 13 per cent, One Nation 5 per cent, the United Australia Party 3 per cent and others and independents are on 8 per cent.
On a two-party preferred basis – when the 5 per cent of undecided voters are allocated according to how they voted last time – Labor leads the Coalition by 53 per cent to 47 per cent, enough to deliver a comfortable victory if replicated on election day.
The Ipsos poll also showed Mr Morrison was still relatively unpopular but had made up some ground on his rival. His rating as preferred prime minster rose 3 points to 39 per cent and Mr Albanese’s rating was up 1 point to 42 per cent.
Mr Morrison’s approval rating rose 2 points to 34 and his disapproval rating was unchanged at 51 per cent, giving him a net negative of 17. Mr Albanese’s approval rating rose 3 points to 33 per cent and his disapproval rating rose a point to 37 per cent, giving him a net negative of 4 points.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/coalition-closing-the-gap-on-labor-in-final-days-20220519-p5amlj
53.5-46.5 using 2019 preferences
Ipsos tables..
snappy Tom – there was a constitutional change in 1977 to prevent further occurances of the examples you mention
‘Pi says:
Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 6:03 pm
Boerwar: “When do we invade the rest of the world which is delivering 98% of CO2 emissions to force this sort of outcome.”
Australia is the largest emitter of carbon per-capita in the world. We won’t be able to force anything until we reduce our carbon output. Then, and only then, can we lecture others about being good global citizens’
============================
I see that you do not understand my point. It would not matter if Australians emitted DOUBLE per capita that we do now.
Liberals could not get the temperature to 3 degrees; Labor could not get the temperature to 2 degrees and the odds and sods could not get the temperature to 1.5 degrees.
The thing that is driving global temperature increases is 98% beyond our control.
Those are just scientific lies. Claims to the contrary are political lies. They are morally bankrupt lies, beyond a shadow of a doubt.
Am I arguing against Australia doing its bit? OFF COURSE NOT.
But I am not getting sucked in by the ‘anything but Labor’ bullshit or the totally unscientific and outlandish claims by the Greens about what the Greens would do if granted a their much desired Dictatorship of the Proletariat and Inner Urban Elites.
All this nonsense of hung parliament is basically media-driven. They want to keep people interested. The level of frenzy from some r-w outlets has been ridiculous.
And that is what drives betting folks. The constant ‘tipping’ by media that it is much closer than it is, makes the average punter who relies on the ‘expertise’ of others for their info, bet accordingly.
They don’t call them mug punters for nothing.
In any other election, 53/47 would be landslide territory.
2pp calculated off primaries – 0 + 35 + 11 + 1.5 + 1 + 4 ~ 52.5
But a Labor leaning poll…. be very worried but there’s only Newspoll left
I will predict that the Coalition will not win the final Newspoll (50-50 is remotely possible). But I am sticking with a final result of a Coalition majority 79 seats.
Jim Chalmers gave a weak response to the employment figures today. He focused on the lack of wages growth. The larger point is that we are still a long way from full employment. That’s why real wages are stagnating.
Underemployment is at 6 percent. It needs to be zero.
Hidden unemployment is at 2 or 3 percent. It needs to be zero.
Unemployment is 3.9 percent. It needs to be less than 2 percent. Frictional (very short-term) unemployment only.
Precarious employment abounds in our society. That needs to be replaced by employment that is stable and secure.
Workers’ rights are weak in Australia. Very weak indeed. The rot began when the Hawke and Keating governments dismantled centralised wage determination. Labor really screwed the pooch there. They undermined their own electoral base.
Howard took those regressive changes a lot further, of course, but Labor paved the way for him. A stupid own goal by Labor.
LNP primary at 33.
The money number.
Interesting, the greens are still at record highs in IPSOS and labor up on 2019, bugger all movement for the LNP, they are indeed stuck in the mid 30s, have to see the tables but a 53/47 to the good guys, even if it translates to a 52/48 on Sat is good enough.
I get pretty much bang on 53.5-46.5 using Ipsos’ primaries. The estimable Mr Bonham says he gets 53.6-46.4.
@Freya Stark, your calculation is useless horseshit.
OH said the booth was not too bad today.
Started saying vote for a FICAC let’s clean up corruption.
Couldn’t believe the impact on the voters.
Another booth worker arrived & OH told him this was getting a favourable response.
By knock off the chap said he couldn’t believe the difference.
.
”
Just Quietlysays:
Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 5:42 pm
Glad to hear that Blowhard will be coming to Perth tomorrow. Should increase the chances of a couple of WA seats flipping to Labor. Probably worth a % or two to ALP in Hasluck and Tangney (don’t mention Curtin).
What happened to Briefly? He was a stalwart last election. is he still with us or too scarred from 2019?
I am wondering how morale is in WA Labor circles.
And what is with all this greens advertising material on here??
”
Briefly is posting as Bludging. 🙂
12 point lead to Labor with females. They can smell the true colours of The Liar
Tpof / ITs Time
“ Dead right. I believe it goes back to the first passover where the angel of death took the Egyptian first born, but spared the Hebrews. Even though Mengele was nicknamed ‘the Angel of Death’ this is hugely meaningless to most Australians, many of whom are ignorant of the Holocaust (such as Catherine Deves, who made far more direct Nazi references in her vicious attacks on young trans people).”
I agree there are definitely Angel of Death references at least back to Exodus in the Judeo Christian tradition. But that is by no means all of them.
The idea of an “angel of death” is common to many, if not most semitic and mid-eastern religions. There is one in the Islamic, Yezidi and Zoarastrian religions that I am aware of. There is even an equivalent figure – Yama – in the Hindu tradition.
There are also many cultural references, including quite a few serial killers.
So the suggestion that anyone using the term “angel of death” must be referring to an event in Judaic history, specifically the holocaust, is false. It is a statement of ignorance.
For reference, the 1977 amendment to s.15 (casual Senate vacancies) provides: “Where a vacancy has at any time occurred in the place of a senator chosen by the people of a State and, at the time when he was so chosen, he was publicly recognized by a particular political party as being an endorsed candidate of that party and publicly represented himself to be such a candidate, a person chosen or appointed under this section in consequence of that vacancy, or in consequence of that vacancy and a subsequent vacancy or vacancies, shall, unless there is no member of that party available to be chosen or appointed, be a member of that party.”
If this is represented on Saturday the lnp are toast.
OH said the booth was not too bad today.
Started saying vote for a FICAC let’s clean up corruption.
Couldn’t believe the impact on the voters.
Another booth worker arrived & OH told him this was getting a favourable response.
By knock off the chap said he couldn’t believe the difference.
Fuck me, Coorey is spinning as a loss for Labor.
Check preferred PM
Albo 42
ScoMo 39
Boewar
Apparently we can do ‘nothing’ about the 98%, more garbage from the armchair general.
We’re the second highest exporter of coal https://www.iea.org/reports/coal-2020/trade
So of course we can ‘do something’
The only reason we don’t do something is because people prefer the comfort of the big lie.
Sure, we can take their money but it’s not our fault…
Your claims are dishonest.
Boerwar: “I see that you do not understand my point. It would not matter if Australians emitted DOUBLE per capita that we do now.”
In order to reduce emissions, the reduction must be coordinated. Starting with the fuckers, us, that pump more carbon into the atmosphere per capita than anyone else. You’re like mister Creosote at an all-you-can-eat buffet telling everyone they need to go on a diet.
One thing looks odd in those IPSOS tables – the breakdown of “Other” votes by gender. More males than females intend to vote Other? When “Other” presumably includes the Teals?
Possible, I guess – and it may be explained by the large gender difference in “Don’t Know”. But it stands out as a bit odd.
Looking good for ALP. Just Newspoll now and then the final poll on Saturday!
Interesting, the undecided are breaking slightly to the LNP according to the poll
IPSOS number have been very stable over the couse, not like that other poll with absurd variations
Player One @ #979 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 4:21 pm
Other also includes One Nation and UAP, which would presumably have voting bases skewing toward male.
Player One
“More males than females intend to vote Other? When “Other” presumably includes the Teals?”
It also presumably includes the UAP clone parties and misc independent nutters.
So despite these figures – the AFR is still talking hung parliament or an “unlikely” LNP win…
I suppose the “narrowing” might have continued today and will tomorrow, but as far as Ipsos is concerned this is their last throw of the dice…..The poll stands or falls on the figures it has come up with…….
If, and it is if, Newspoll comes in at 52-48 – and I might add, even 51-49….it means 6 polls have all calculated a winning lead for Labor…If Labor does not win now, some very serious questions will have to be posed to the whole polling industry…for, if a poll such as Ipsos comes out with these figures but still wants to have the saving grace of what might happen in the last two days of the campaign is just not good enough………….
So after this election, we’ll get to look at all 50+ LNP seats left and consider the impact of the teals. It may just be that a soft liberal / center not crazy vote is a nice place for people to park their vote.
It’s going to be fun watching them try and recover. Hopefully they don’t go full crazy.
‘Astrobleme says:
Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 6:20 pm
Boewar
Apparently we can do ‘nothing’ about the 98%, more garbage from the armchair general.’
——————–
Personal abuse.
Not that Greens furphy again! 86% of the world’s coal reserves are somewhere else.
https://twitter.com/theage/status/1527198318262353921
Back in ye olde days, this would probably have been considered treason.
If 200,000 have Covid and can’t vote, won’t that have an enormous effect on seats where only a few votes make a difference?
How can you factor that in.
Yes, the “Others” category is probably too wide to be a useful indicator.
Kevin Rudd claimed it the morning of the 2007 election as he did yesterday campaigning in Melbourne during a sky news interview where he gave it to them and their Murdoch puppeteer:
“There is a feeling of change in the air”
I can also feel a whiff of this in the air- an informal, colloquial yet fairly accurate way of reading the electorate.
Ipsos has just confirmed this and I think we can breathe easy.
Colloquial indicators are everywhere- for instance have a look at all the comments in Andrew Constance’s face book posts- a historically conservative rolled gold Liberal seat of Gilmore and the comments are running 9/1 pro Labor and highly critical of the BS LNP claims.
Then you’ve got rumours of the RAAF VIP squadron having a business jet on standby at Mascot so Albenese and Wong can be flown to Yarralumbla in the early hours of Sunday morning to be sworn in so they can attend the security conferences. It invokes the spirit of the last two man government to be speedily sworn in to get down to business- the great, tall man himself.
Boerwar
You said there was nothing we can do. We export fully one quarter of world exports.
Of course there is something we can do.
“86% of the world’s coal reserves are somewhere else.” Oh look a squirrel
Dr Fumbles – not really … given the VERY low primary for the Libs with undecideds excluded … you’d have to think the Libs vote was being artificially held down.
So I reckon the AFR held back Ipsos so the results wouldn’t make the 6 o’clock news on the penultimate day – if the results were a greater tightening, it would have been released much earlier
Holdenhillbilly why are the PV numbers in your post different to the Ipsos table?
Astrobleme @ #991 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 6:25 pm
Nah! It’s a rabbit. And it has just run down a rabbit hole. I suggest you don’t follow it.
Just catching up with the Ipsos 53/47 poll for Labor – marvelous news. Its the widening 😀
Apart from being good news for this country, I am also pleased for Albo’s sake. he has campaigned hard in an authentic and constructive fashion. His speeches at the debates, campaign launch and NPC were excellent, and he has coped some appalling treatment from the Murdoch press-lice and simply kept going. He has been up against a master-liar and a biased media, and not buckled. Great.
Listening to a lecture about economic management today from a government that has let debt triple without passing a single economic reform besides tax cuts, borders on insulting.
‘Pi says:
Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 6:20 pm
Boerwar: “I see that you do not understand my point. It would not matter if Australians emitted DOUBLE per capita that we do now.”
In order to reduce emissions, the reduction must be coordinated. Starting with the fuckers, us, that pump more carbon into the atmosphere per capita than anyone else. You’re like mister Creosote at an all-you-can-eat buffet telling everyone they need to go on a diet.’
==============================
You are STILL ignoring my point.
The original contention was the vote Liberal to get to 3 degrees, vote Labor to get to 2 degrees and vote Greens and Teals to get to 1.5 degrees.
No Party in Australia can get the global temperature to 3 degrees, 2 degrees or 1.5 degrees.
To state that the Liberals, Labor or odds and sods can do this is a complete an utter scientific lie. It is also a political lie being put about by the Greens and their hacks.
JUST.NOT.POSSIBLE. As you would no doubt readily admit.
And do stop verballing me. Australia must do its bit.
How are Labor going to drop 4 in 1 week on newspoll ?…