The final Ipsos poll for the Financial Review will apparently be along later today, which so far as national polling is concerned will just leave Newspoll, to be published in The Australian on Friday evening if 2019 is any guide. No doubt though there will be other polling of one kind or another coming down the chute over the next few days. For now:
• Tom Burton of the Financial Review offers reports a Redbridge poll of Goldstein conducted for Climate 200 has Liberal member Tim Wilson on 36.0% and teal independent Zoe Daniel on 26.9% with 8.4% undecided, and that 52.7% of voters for all other candidates would put Daniel ahead on preferences compared with 12.8% for Wilson and 34.5% undecided. Removing the undecided at both ends of the equation, this produces a final winning margin for Daniel of 4.6%.
• In an article that otherwise talks up the threat facing Kristina Keneally in Fowler, The Australian reports that “senior Coalition sources said they expected Ms Keneally to hold the seat”. The report also identifies seats being targeted by the major parties over the coming days, none of which should come as too much of a surprise, and talks of “confidence increasing in Coalition ranks that Scott Morrison is making inroads in outer-suburban seats”.
• The Australian National University’s Centre for Social Research and Methods have published results of a survey of 3587 respondents conducted from April 11 to 26 in a report entitled “Australians’ views on gender equity and the political parties”. Among many others things, this includes a result on voting intention showing the Coalition on 29.2% among women and 34.5% among men; Labor on 33.4% among women and 36.5% among men; the Greens on 19.8% among women and 12.2% among men; others on 9.2% among women and 14.0% among men; and 8.4% of women undecided compared with 2.8% of men.
• I had an article in Crikey yesterday considering the role of tactical voting in the campaign, which among other things notes the incentive for Labor supporters to back teal independents to ensure they come second and potentially defeat Liberals on preferences, and the conundrum they face in the Australian Capital Territory Senate race, where just enough defections will help independent David Pocock defeat Liberal incumbent Zed Seselja, but too many will result in him winning a seat at the expense of Labor’s Katy Gallagher instead.
Alpha Zerosays:
Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 10:28 am
If the result is looking good – surely we would all be wanting to watch SKY…
——————————————————————————-
Yes absolutely I watched the ABC in 2019 and it was wonderful. Not so much the Labor politicians reactions but the ABC journalist’s now that was wonderful viewing. They could not help showing how hurt they were, having a nice cold beer watching them blinking back the tears….it was gorgeous.
If you are seeing this message it because the worm treatment hasn’t worked. But don’t be fooled by vaccine chicanery.
Pauline.
Holdenhillbilly @ #331 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 10:30 am
There’s definitely a certain schadenfreude at that news.
I hope her experience with covid is an educational one for her.
(A late good morning from me.)
The word “corrupt” appears a few times this morning. I think that’s not unsurprising, given our current politics. Whatever your political ideology, trust in government is vital. Trust in institutions is a close second. A federal ICAC provides the mechanism to create and support that trust. Getting that legislated should be a priority for an incoming Labor government.
(I still need to scan for any new guesses. And I hope to try some reporting formats later today so we can all review those guesses.)
Steelydan @ #234 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 7:28 am
😆 😆 😆
Yes, there is no concept of team with the Liberals.
Ministers in hiding.
Candidates hoping Morrison doesn’t visit their electorate.
On the other hand Labor have strong visible and vocal shadow Ministers and when Albanese went into isolation the campaign didn’t miss a beat.
Griff says:
Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 10:36 am
Nath, it looks like we both find such a situation absurd, but for very different reasons.
FICAC now.
_______
It took Bill Shorten 8 years to declare a 40k donation from a Labor hire company. Under the current system he just has to update his Interests at any time. I think he might have been in some trouble if a FICAC had got on to this beforehand.
Do you think he should have been charged with something?
https://twitter.com/PRGuy17/status/1527086502424875008
PRGuy @PRGuy17
PRESSURE SHOWS: A short-tempered Scott Morrison has become snippy and aggressive towards reporters this morning as the pressure of the campaign takes its toll. 6 weeks of daily campaigning is said to be the “first time he’s faced a daily workload in his life.” #auspol
10:39 AM · May 19, 2022·Twitter Web App
Smirko has to work for the first time in his life and the pressure is getting to him.
Bludging @ #309 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 10:20 am
It’s not just possible, it’s highly probable.
ItzaDream at 10:32 am
But wait there’s more. An exquisite hair of the dog awaits you after your big night.
Foxtel’s Sunday morning freak show on politics ,’The Outsiders’. Regular panel is Rowan Dean, James Morrow and Rita Panahi. A connoisseurs delight.
It should have been a penalty,” Luca told Nine’s Today show earlier this morning.
————
Luca has his first lesson in Liberal Male Privilege.
They never get a “red card”.
A Liberal party ad on Medicare funding has been referred to the electoral commission, after Labor claimed the government had tried to trick people into thinking the health department had endorsed the Coalition.
There was a furious response from the outgoing health minister, Greg Hunt, who called the complaint from his Labor counterpart, Mark Butler, an attempt to “disparage the good work of the Department of Health”, and accused Labor of “blatant lies” about medical funding.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/19/liberal-medicare-ad-referred-to-aec-after-labor-complaint-over-health-department-link
“To lose a Prime Minister over a bottle of wine will be absurd”
O’Farrell chose to go, like Berejiklian chose to go. I never sensed O’Farrell would have been in political trouble had he stayed unless there was something larger that would have come out had he stayed. Berejiklian’s pretence of no conflict of interest was so nakedly crap that even the more honest Liberals admitted it, but hey if she believed voters would agree with her she could have fought.
Andrews has not gone anywhere despite IBAC questioning.
Frankly it would not be a bad thing if standards of probity in government strayed to “too tight” again for a bit as they’ve been obviously too loose ever since Howard got sick of losing ministers and these politicians all need prodding to pull their heads in and stop playing fast and loose with the conflict of interest rules.
“The One Nation founder and senator is not vaccinated.”
She believed her own low-information moron-targeted strategy. I thought the whole point was to give them idiocy, while you sit in your enclosure talking strategy and power games. But like the Russian generals, she went out into the field like her soldiers.
Now he’s talking about how “the times” will allow how “we” behave in the future, “we can be more engaging”.
He’s not talking about how *he* will change, though he formerly acknowledged he needs to.
It’s all a group exercise, apparently, not a personal, introspective process.
Unless he’s taken to talking of himself in the third person, of course, which would be about right.
laughtong @ #301 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 10:13 am
If it looks bad for Labor switch off.
If it looks good flip through the channels and enjoy as many Liberals sulking as possible then later watch Sky for the full hit of schadenfreude.
happyez says:
Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 10:46 am
“The One Nation founder and senator is not vaccinated.”
She believed her own low-information moron-targeted strategy. I thought the whole point was to give them idiocy, while you sit in your enclosure talking strategy and power games. And like the Russian generals, they went out into the field like their cannon fodder. So did she.
中华人民共和国
Charles Darwin Theory at play in front of us troops.
Loose Unit: chinese voters in:
Bennelong, Reid, Parramatta
Arky says:
Frankly it would not be a bad thing if standards of probity in government strayed to “too tight” again for a bit as they’ve been obviously too loose ever since Howard got sick of losing ministers and these politicians all need prodding to pull their heads in and stop playing fast and loose with the conflict of interest rules.
________________
Yes I suppose that would be a good thing. But I’d like FICAC to really concentrate on serious issues rather than be a punitive machine for infractions.
Was the poll failure in 2019 caused by Pauline Hanson?
In the lead-up to the 2019 election, the polling figures showed One Nation&UAP with a combined7% of the vote. At the election their vote dropped to 3%. They lost 56% of their voters! Where did they go? The polls were Australia wide, but One Nation ran in only 59 seats. This meant that, when those 7% of Hanson/UAP voters rocked up to a polling booth, two-thirds of them didn’t find Pauline on the ballot paper. They mostly appear to have decided to vote for the Coalition instead.
@nath – I dare say it’s imperative …
Isn’t pH already dead? Oh only brain dead
Upnorth
Charles Darwin Theory at play in front of us troops.
====
At least, if she became PM, she’d make the Flat Earth belief official government policy.
The loose unitsays:
Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 10:42 am
https://twitter.com/PRGuy17/status/1527086502424875008
PRGuy @PRGuy17
PRESSURE SHOWS: A short-tempered Scott Morrison has become snippy and aggressive towards reporters this morning as the pressure of the campaign takes its toll. 6 weeks of daily campaigning is said to be the “first time he’s faced a daily workload in his life.” #auspol
10:39 AM · May 19, 2022·Twitter Web App
Smirko has to work for the first time in his life and the pressure is getting to him.
____________________________________________________________
This is the type of thinking is why Labor continue to lose.
Morrisons work ethic has been described by the media that know him as being herculean, it is stated by many that one of the main reasons he beat Shorten was his incredible work ethic, the shear amount of ground he covered during the 2019 compared to Shorten was noted by all.
Despise all you want but don’t allow that to blind you from understanding your opponents strengths. But please go on thinking he is a lazy fool, for your sake you better Labor brains trust is not doing the same.
”
”
UK inflation going gangbusters.
Yesterday I read a report where Head of UK Central Bank said that it is metaphorically “Apologise Now”.
Baby formula food is not available in US with Biden invoking “Defence Production act”
It AUKUS now.
Upnorth
https://www.sorryantivaxxer.com/
Fuck me, that’s an awful read.
Whens the press conference for the costings?
About to go to pre-poll – ACT. Mrs Big A is voting for the first time, and a little bit miffed as to why candidates who she knows nothing about must get her preference. Since she favours labor, I said to just follow the labor htv card. Unfortunately for the senate, this means giving Animal Justice a preference, which she doesn’t want to. So I asked her to look up David Pocock and emphasised that the most important decision she makes for the senate, is whether to put Pocock above or below the liberals – as I assume the race for the second seat will between Pocock and Seselja. I hope she preferences Pocock.
As for Pocock, I’ll certainly preference him purely as the best way of kicking out Seselja. However I am slightly annoyed that he is popular solely on being a famous sports player. His expertise and knowledge obviously pales compared to the eminently more qualified Kim Rubinstein, who at last check was polling around 6%. And you go to his facebook page, and its just bullshit generic motherhood statements like “listen to the people”, “give Canberra a voice”, “restore integrity” blah blah blah – the same crap everyone says. Still, I’ll vote for him because it increases the chances of kicking out the libs.
I want to believe.
Asha says:
Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 10:59 am
Roy Morgan says Dutton will lose Dickson on a 6% 2PP ALP lead.
I want to believe.
________
Imagine if they lost Dutton and Frydenberg? It would really be last man standing. Simon Birmingham?
Nath: Birmingham is a Senator and cannot become leader.
The proliferation of 3rd-voice candidates, other pop-ups, the persistence of the apostates, their all-in total vote share and longevity really are saying something about the Australian political order and the dismantling of the serious compromises and forms that were established in this country during the 20th century.
I think political expression is becoming atomised and disrupted in the same way that other forms of expression/participation/consumption have been disrupted. To a very large extent this has been enabled by the extraordinary ubiquity of both broadcast and narrowcast (social) media and the application of deep data-mining to political “production”.
Very clearly, the power to determine the content and the style of politics is in the hands of the media. That is to say, political discourse and popular expression is – more than ever – in the hands of the Goliaths.
Arguably, we no longer live in a socially-formed and populated democracy. We live in an info-oligarchy owned and operated by reactionaries….in an escapist amusement park, a political kindergarten, where the titular leaders play dress-ups, fabricate stories and fables, play mimes, organise athletic spectacles, stir up fears, seduce us with escapist dreams and bathe us with pretend magic and sing song.
Politics is a form of reality tv these days. Really, it is screenplay.
Losing Dutton would probably be a blessing in disguise as he could not be a bad leader for the Liberals, but still it would be good to see him lose.
Scott from Adelaide
Mr Shouty/Bulldozer was in full force at Morrison’s presser in Tassie this morning.
@Holden – they made it work for Gorton…
BK at 11:02 am
Somewhere up in Scotty’s brain there’s a panic ……………….
Boinzo,
It’s grim but those people chose selfishness right up to the last moment. I actually am interested to know if swing districts in the us will be affected by the covid cull of voter who didn’t get vaccinated
With Labor’s costing being much higher than than the liberals and an unemployment rate with a 3 in front of it may sway enough, not sure if there is enough time though.
Took my nephew ( first time voter ) to a pre-poll in St Marys ( NSW ) as he was a bit uncertain of the procedures. He only took a ALP how to vote as he went in. Voted and did his bit came out and said ” how easy is that ” then phoned his mom to say ” I gave Scomo a knee in the nuts”……lol
Ditto, Poroti
If Labor is anywhere near winning Credlin will be worse than her nasty childishness during the South Aussie count, so SAD late in the count is the go.
We’ll be channel hopping a lot.
This is our 2nd Fed election of not doing HTVs or scrutineering. It doesn’t feel the same.
Good luck to all those doing their bit. You make a difference.
If the electorate cannot find enough reason to get rid of the current inept Federal government, after three terms in office and changing leaders like socks, when would they?
As some have said, the LNP is even in with a chance, if all the cards fall right for them, which is puzzling.
Couple of things though, if the LNP does get back in this will all but insure McGowan (huge majority not withstanding) will get another four years. Morrison is particularly disliked in WA.
Secondly, the Liberals vote has been declining over several elections now and the “soft” Liberals are not going to go away….It may well mean a further splintering for the right side of politics…….Whether this is of much use to Labor is anyone’s guess…
Having lived some of my life when Menzies was in power for 23 years there is no reason why Morrison could not replicate this if the mood of the electorate does not change.
Big difference of course, was that Menzies did have pretentions to leadership which is more than can be said for the advertising man who currently holds the Liberal job and his pathetic Deputy from the Nationals….
Frankly the best results coverage on Saturday night will be from Liverpool v Wolverhampton and Manchester City v Aston Villa.
Steelydan @ #387 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 11:06 am
the LNP hasn’t costed 100’s of the 30+ billion in election promises – if this effects labor winning people weren’t voting for them anyway.
I’ll remain sceptical about Pauleeen contracting COVID, predicting it’s a PR stunt & she will make a miraculous recovery on Friday.. “see I told youuz so.. it’s harmless & Ivermectin works”
Steely, do you honestly think that swinging voters, after seeing 3 years of carnage, ineptitude, lying, incompetence, and mysogeny, are going to vote for Morrison’s mob just because a concocted unemployment number might have a 3 in front of it?
Reid and Chisolm have high Chinese pops
Morrisons work ethic, secret holdiays while the nation literally burned, he gets more holidays each year than I’ve had in the last five, and that is just the ones we know about, the one secret holiday we were lied to about, by the media, surely wasn’t the only one. And if I were trying to make that alternative case relying on the Australian media, little more than cheerleaders for him, would be my last straw desperate effort I know noone would believe.
As for Shorten there was a massive taxpayer funded star chamber focused solely on the idea he should be charged with crimes and even as partisan amd throughly dodgy as it was it came up empty. You’d have to be intellectually a pot plant that watches sky news after dark to even suggest something was missed in that partisan abuse of process.
Boinzo says:
Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 10:57 am
Upnorth
https://www.sorryantivaxxer.com/
Fuck me, that’s an awful read.
中华人民共和国
It’s what happens when people listen to the likes of Hanson and Palmer et al. Needless suffering and misery. Hell awaits these grubs.
“and an unemployment rate with a 3 in front of it may sway enough”.
The latest Morgan survey shows that the unemployment rate has increased to 9%, and under-employment steady on 8 something.
Gorton was able to move to the House by winning the by-election in Holt’s very safe seat of Higgins, which was conveniently in the same state that Gorton represented as a Senator. I can’t envision there being a similar vacancy anywhere in South Australia immediately after the election. Now, if Birmingham lived in NSW, on the other hand, he could potentially switch houses by running in the Cook by-election that would inevitably come about after losing government.
If Frydenberg and Dutton both lose their seats, I reckon the next leader will be Fletcher, Taylor, or Tehan.
Oh, on another bright note, that ear-worm bucket ad, has ceased……..The laugh was here in Hermitville, some thought it was a Labor ad…You have to wonder at it all sometimes….