The final Ipsos poll of the campaign has dropped courtesy of the Financial Review, showing Labor leading 53-47 on its most straightforward measure of two-party preferred, applying 2019 preference flows and excluding all the undecided. The Coalition is up a solid four points on the primary vote since the weekend before last to 33%, but this partly reflects a two-point drop in undecided from 7% to 5%. Labor is down a point to 34%, the Greens are steady on 12% and others are down one to 15%.
Without excluding the undecided, Labor is down a point on the previous-election two-candidate preferred measure to 51% while the Coalition is up four to 44%. A further measure with respondent-allocated preferences has a higher undecided result of 11% (down four) which further includes those who were decided on the primary vote but not on preferences, on which Labor is down a point to 49% and the Coalition is up five to 40%.
Scott Morrison’s approval rating is up two to 34% with disapproval steady on 51%, while Anthony Albanese is up three to 33% and down one to 37%. Albanese maintains a 42-39 lead as preferred prime minister, in from 41-36 last time.
UPDATE: Labor’s lead on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate is now at 53.5-46.5, a narrowing that partly reflects the Ipsos result but has also been affected by a change I’ve made to the allocation of preferences, which continues to be based on flows at the 2019 election but now breaks out the United Australia Party from “others”. The measure is still more favourable to Labor than the account of internal party polling provided by Phillip Coorey in the Financial Review, which says Labor’s has it at about 52-48 while a Coalition source believes it “could be as close as 51-49”. Time will tell, but based on no end of historic precedent, such numbers seem more plausible to me than BludgerTrack’s, which exceed Labor’s performance at any election since 1943. A Newspoll that should be with us this evening will be the campaign’s last national poll, and perhaps its last poll full-stop.
BTRProducer says:
Friday, May 20, 2022 at 7:27 pm
Good evening PB cobblers. Feels good tonight, doesn’t it? To know the campaign is done, and it’s just time for the great unwashed to vote, eat a snag, and then sit back and wait for the numbers to roll in.
It’s been a heck of a ride, these last 6 weeks (let alone the last 3 years). Whatever happens tomorrow, I have no regrets about Albo’s campaign. It’s been virtually flawless. This time 3 years ago, I couldn’t say the same thing about the Shorten campaign. So if he doesn’t win tomorrow night, it wasn’t for want of trying. Can’t see there being a scathing post-election review coming out.
Albo deserves to win. I’ve done my bit to help. Volunteered for the Reds. Donated a decent chunk of change. Bought some merch. Now it’s over to the Australian people.
Ready with my fellow PB Piss heads to crack open some frothy cold ones at 6pm tomorrow night. ABC on the telly, PB on the laptop. Going to be a big night.
For tonight, however, it’s the 7:30 Albo interview then I am cracking a bottle of red and watching Keating The Musical. I always tear up when they get to the Light on the Hill song.
Keep on believing in the Light, True Believers. It’s gonna get brighter tomorrow.
中华人民共和国
Good on ya cobber. Let’s bring Aussie home to Mother Labor so that we may heal
When will the first exit poll be released?
By memory last election even the exit poll had Labor in front on 2pp.
NewsPoll incoming – SmearStralian spinning it for the LNP
Player Onesays:
Friday, May 20, 2022 at 3:22 pm
This seems to highlight how little thought and attention you give to those you respond to.
If you hadn’t picked that up after years of interacting with him on related issue, it doesn’t say much for your comprehension skills.
But we already knew that.
Sceptic,
I bet her model doesn’t account for the diminishing amount of voters who have still to vote, two weeks ago labor launched and locked in votes at polling levels of the days forward.
I expect the narrowing to have less effect because people can’t change their vote. So everyone who is yet to vote makes up a different type of sample that regular polls.
Sentiment analysis is important and the main point. Sfm is doomed.
Newspoll: Labor lead over Coalition narrows
Support for Labor has fallen sharply in the final week of the campaign amid a rejection of both major parties as Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese are neck-to-neck as the better PM, Newspoll finds.
Popular support for Labor has fallen sharply in the final week of the campaign amid a rejection of both major parties as Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese head to the polls with voters unable to decide who would make the better prime minister.
But without a late swing to the Coalition, Labor remains on track to win the election with a two-party-preferred lead of 53-47.
According to an election-eve Newspoll, commissioned by The Weekend Australian, Labor would be positioned to form majority government if the results are replicated at the polling booths on Saturday.
It would confirm Mr Albanese as the first modern day leader from the Labor Left to win office from Opposition.
https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/newspoll-labor-lead-over-coalition-narrows/news-story/937dbfe8479e9380d93da4121f63c09d
Support for Labor has fallen sharply in the final week of the campaign amid a rejection of both major parties as Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese are neck-to-neck as the better PM, Newspoll finds.
53/47
Final Newspoll – 53-47
hla says:
Friday, May 20, 2022 at 7:24 pm
’10’ is actually the way you write 8 in octal.
BTW, there are 10 types of people in the world.
Those who understand binary, and those who don’t.
Err. If was only binary you would only need 0 and 1
The final Newspoll of the campaign shows Labor ’s primary vote falling two points over the past week to 36 per cent confirming a tightening in the electoral race in the final days of the campaign.
However, the Coalition’s primary vote has failed to lift in response, remaining stuck on 35 per cent. If replicated today it would mark the worst result at an election for the Liberal and Nationals parties since Newspoll began in the mid-1980s.
https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/newspoll-labor-lead-over-coalition-narrows/news-story/937dbfe8479e9380d93da4121f63c09d
‘Sharply’ for the Murdoch shills is 1 point
53-47
Mmmmm
Morrison open to minority government
the prime minister indicated he was prepared to lead a minority government, although there would be no horse-trading on policy.
he said the polls were wrong. “And they were wrong last time too, remember,” he said.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/liberals-economic-credentials-take-a-hit-on-eve-of-poll-20220520-p5amza
The leakage from Labor’s base of support has primarily gone to the Greens, which has increased its primary vote from 11 per cent to 12 per cent. This is almost a point higher than its last election result.
The Newspoll shows the Coalition has failed to engineer any lift in support from the record low unemployment numbers released on Thursday and its housing policy offering young home buyers access to their superannuation.
The Newpoll results show a primary vote swing of 6.4 per cent against the government since the last election and a 4.5 per cent swing on a two party preferred vote.
A 53/47 result in Labor’s favour would represent a greater two party preferred result than the Rudd-slide of 2007 but result in potentially less seats due to the rise in support for independents and minor parties.
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation will go to the polls with a primary vote of five per cent, a fall of one point on last week’s Newspoll, while Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party also fell a point to three per cent.
https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/newspoll-labor-lead-over-coalition-narrows/news-story/937dbfe8479e9380d93da4121f63c09d
LNP 35
ALP 36
Good night nurse
That’s a happy newspoll.
Annnnnd exhale
I take it it must be a PV drop because 53/47 is not a sharp fall.
53-47, I’m quietly hopeful but still shit nervous. Hopefully the last sleep as Morrison as prime minister
ALP 36
LNP 35
Has there been a more exhilarating election for us political junkies ever?
Newspoll53 Labor 47 coalition
PM Albanese by Monday.
Morrison from bulldozer to lawn mower.
Newspoll 53-47
L-NP 35 ALP 36 Green 12 ON 5 UAP 3 other 9
Via Kevin Bonham
Edit to add: I got to say that looks like a high 53 from those primaries but I await William or Kevin confirming.
Gee, beyond most of our hopes ….If Newspoll is in fact right this time…..53 -47…If the LNP get up from here a swab test will be needed……
Laura Tingle seemed to say just now that Newspoll is expected to be 53 ALP to 47 LNP.. if I heard her correctly.
(edit) Ah, I see that some posts above confirm that this is indeed the case.
The primaries
#Newspoll L-NP 35 ALP 36 Green 12 ON 5 UAP 3 other 9
@BTRProducer – I will be doing the same as you. I recently visited Campbells Winery in Rutherglen. They suggested I try their Fortified Wine (apparently you can’t call it port). I’ve taken a shine to it. I’ll be dining on a nice steak and sipping some port. If things turn out the way I hope I think I’ll switch to Captain Morgan. 🙂
Simmo – 2010 was more exhilarating
That’s the death knell for the Liberals.
I don’t think it’s actually possible to predict the number of independents that will get elected this time around on the basis of past performance. There simply isn’t a precedent to a national independents movements. I don’t think it’ll look much like the summation of separate independent campaigns, but I don’t think that means they’ll make a better-than-clean-sweep type result either (which I guess is what a crossbench of 17 really means).
Ah I see, nice result for Labor. I can’t see them losing unless the polls are completely wrong. I’m thinking low 80s hopefully.
Laura just leaked Newspoll! 53:47. primaries 36:35
The final Newspoll of the campaign shows Labor ’s primary vote falling two points over the past week to 36 per cent confirming a tightening in the electoral race in the final days of the campaign.
However, the Coalition’s primary vote has failed to lift in response, remaining stuck on 35 per cent. If replicated today it would mark the worst result at an election for the Liberal and Nationals parties since Newspoll began in the mid-1980s.
Combined, the level of support for both major parties would mark a record low heading into an election.
The slide in support for Labor in the final days of the campaign follows another significant campaign gaffe for Mr Albanese after he wrongly claimed in an interview that Australia’s borders were still closed.
The leakage from Labor’s base of support has primarily gone to the Greens, which has increased its primary vote from 11 per cent to 12 per cent. This is almost a point higher than its last election result.
https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/newspoll-labor-lead-over-coalition-narrows/news-story/937dbfe8479e9380d93da4121f63c09d
Where is mundo?
Tricot says:
Friday, May 20, 2022 at 7:36 pm
Gee, beyond most of our hopes ….If Newspoll is in fact right this time…..53 -47…If the LNP get up from here a swab test will be needed……
_________________________
Lol – good line.
LNP on 35 is the Morrison albatross around the Coalition’s neck
35 – they one by 1 seat with 41.2 in 2019
6 points have gone a wandering…
Upnorth at 7.33
“Popular support for Labor has fallen sharply…”
BY 1 FUCKING % on 2PP and 2 on PV! (Both well within MOE and, if realised at the election, a thumping of the Coalition!)
These journos will spin themselves into the ground soon – if they haven’t already!
FFFFFFFFFFS!!!
See, I’m cool, calm and collected…
And the Libs PV has stayed stuck down on 35.. So, even the most supposedly trusted poll is giving Labor a TPP at its highest level since WW or similar?
sprocket_ says:
Friday, May 20, 2022 at 7:36 pm
The primaries
#Newspoll L-NP 35 ALP 36 Green 12 ON 5 UAP 3 other 9
——————-
If repeated tomorrow , the early result of the election will be known
The lib/nats are facing their lowest combined primary vote in over 20 years
Newspol 53 ALP 47LNP. ALP 36 LNP35 Greens 12
It is hilarious (and entirely predictable) that The Australian which always spun the ‘huge’ preferred PM lead for Morrison in the face of bad actual polls, now finds solace in 47/53 poll and shoves the (improved for Albanese) ‘neck-and-neck for PM’ somewhere lower.
I stand by my theory that the newscorp papers tomorrow will say “Labor on track to win … but YOU have the power to stop them”
Morrison net approval-13 (41-54)
Albanese net approval -5 (41-46)
Better PM 42-42
2pp 0+36+10+1.5+1+4.5 = 53.0
Did not expect that. Maybe Coalition won’t win after all.
Upnorth,
That tropical heat doesn’t slow you down a bit .. quick off the mark getting that uplifting Newspoll posted.
Albo has caught up on PPM too.
This isn’t over but that’s a good poll.
ON 5 UAP 3 other 9
alias says:
Friday, May 20, 2022 at 7:39 pm
Upnorth,
That tropical heat doesn’t slow you down a bit .. quick off the mark getting that uplifting Newspoll posted.
中华人民共和国
Cause I love youse all! I’m going to have a practice couple of sherbets for tomorrow.
It is not over until it is over, but I have a better feeling than I did on the night that Resolve thing came out. Could not sleep. Realised that I would be 67 years old before another chance to turf these fuckwits out.