Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor

Evidence that late deciders are breaking to the Coalition, but Labor maintains a solid lead in the final Ipsos poll.

The final Ipsos poll of the campaign has dropped courtesy of the Financial Review, showing Labor leading 53-47 on its most straightforward measure of two-party preferred, applying 2019 preference flows and excluding all the undecided. The Coalition is up a solid four points on the primary vote since the weekend before last to 33%, but this partly reflects a two-point drop in undecided from 7% to 5%. Labor is down a point to 34%, the Greens are steady on 12% and others are down one to 15%.

Without excluding the undecided, Labor is down a point on the previous-election two-candidate preferred measure to 51% while the Coalition is up four to 44%. A further measure with respondent-allocated preferences has a higher undecided result of 11% (down four) which further includes those who were decided on the primary vote but not on preferences, on which Labor is down a point to 49% and the Coalition is up five to 40%.

Scott Morrison’s approval rating is up two to 34% with disapproval steady on 51%, while Anthony Albanese is up three to 33% and down one to 37%. Albanese maintains a 42-39 lead as preferred prime minister, in from 41-36 last time.

UPDATE: Labor’s lead on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate is now at 53.5-46.5, a narrowing that partly reflects the Ipsos result but has also been affected by a change I’ve made to the allocation of preferences, which continues to be based on flows at the 2019 election but now breaks out the United Australia Party from “others”. The measure is still more favourable to Labor than the account of internal party polling provided by Phillip Coorey in the Financial Review, which says Labor’s has it at about 52-48 while a Coalition source believes it “could be as close as 51-49”. Time will tell, but based on no end of historic precedent, such numbers seem more plausible to me than BludgerTrack’s, which exceed Labor’s performance at any election since 1943. A Newspoll that should be with us this evening will be the campaign’s last national poll, and perhaps its last poll full-stop.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,831 comments on “Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Taylormade @ #1574 Friday, May 20th, 2022 – 6:15 pm

    sprocket_says:
    Friday, May 20, 2022 at 6:05 pm
    PVO saying it’s a majority or minority Labor government.
    _____________________
    The morning after the knifing PVO said Gillard would increase the ALP majority at the next election.

    PvO also said Morrison would not win the 2019 election, words that apparently SfM has taken great delight in replaying at every MP-journalist event since in order to give him shit.

  2. Election 2022: Greens leader reveals plan to ‘kick Liberals out’ and save the planet

    Greens leader Adam Bandt has revealed in the event of a hung parliament his party’s “number one issue” when it comes to climate change will be to stop the opening of new coal and gas mines.

    “Angry” is how he would feel if Australia’s next government adopts a business as usual approach to fossil fuels use.

    In a candid interview with Yahoo News Australia about the climate crisis, Mr Bandt said he hopes the Federal Election will put an “end to this terrible government”.

    “We’ll kick the Liberals out, but will push Labor to listen to the climate science and stop opening new coal and gas mines,” he said.

    https://au.news.yahoo.com/election-greens-plan-kick-liberals-out-save-the-planet-054441440.html

  3. Roy Morgan Poll 20/05/2022
    ALP 53% cf. L-NP 47%

    Roy Morgan continued interviewing throughout this week but there has been no evidence of a swing to the L-NP seen in previous weeks continuing during the final week of the campaign.

  4. The loose unit @ #1403 Friday, May 20th, 2022 – 6:20 pm

    https://www.crikey.com.au/2022/05/20/guy-rundle-2022-election-prediction/

    Labor wins: Bass, Boothby, Chisholm, Braddon, Pearce, Higgins, Casey, Hasluck, Sturt.
    Coalition wins: Macquarie, Corangamite, Hughes
    Greens win: Griffith
    Teals win: Goldstein, Curtin, Kooyong, North Sydney
    Rusts win: Nicholls (probably not; sentimental hope)
    And with that you end up with:
    Labor: 75 seats
    Greens: 2 seats
    Coalition: 65 seats
    Teals: 4 seats
    Rusts: 2 seats (Haines in Indi, Priestly in Nicholls)
    Right independents: 2 seats (Katter in Kennedy, Sharkey in Mayo)
    Left independents: 1 seat (Wilkie in Clark)

    Just checking.
    ALP | LNP | KAP | GRN | CA | Teal|other
    75 | 65 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 3 Guy Rundle (May-20 18:20)

    ?

  5. @Tom
    “Does anyone know what the polls said leading into the WA bloodbath?”

    Sadly there wasn’t many overall polls for WA leading into the election, it was mostly seat polls or “vibes ” journalists got. But for what it’s worth these are the three closest to polling date.
    5–11/3/21 Newspoll ALP 57% LIB 23% NAT 3% GRN 9% ONP 2% OTH 6% ALP 66% LNP 34%
    18/2/21 Newspoll ALP 59% LIB 23% NAT 2% GRN 8% ONP 3% OTH 5% ALP68% LNP 32%
    16/2/21 uComms ALP 46.8% LIB 27.5% NAT 5.1% GRN 8.3% ONP 6.9% ONP 5.3% ALP 61% LNP 39%

    Actual result was ALP 59.9% LIB 21.3% NAT4.0% GRN6.9% ONP1.3% OTH6.6% ALP 69.7% LNP 30.3%
    It was a wonderful election night I will not forget

  6. ‘Firefox says:
    Friday, May 20, 2022 at 6:28 pm

    Election 2022: Greens leader reveals plan to ‘kick Liberals out’ and save the planet
    ….’
    =================
    Little Bandt is quite the deranged megalomaniac.
    12% does not kick Liberals out.
    There is no way any Australian government can possibly save the planet.
    Let alone one that has the Senate being obstructed by the Greens.
    Cultish stuff, I am afraid.

  7. ‘Rewi says:
    Friday, May 20, 2022 at 6:31 pm

    Boerwar

    Good name for an award, just quietly.’
    —————
    True. Haha.

  8. Dog’s Brunch @ #1438 Friday, May 20th, 2022 – 5:07 pm

    Currently sitting with HI in a suite at The Hydro-Majestic overlooking the Gross Valley ( bit foggy/misty atm) and enjoying a bottle of bubbles, looking forward to a nice dinner in The Wintergarden restaurant tonight.
    .

    Hi, Doggie’s Meal. That is the Megalong Valley you can’t see just now. The Grose Valley is on the other side of the highway, and somewhat to your north. Perry’s Lookdown is the best place to observe it, out from Blackheath. You could do a bracing walk down to Blue Gum Forest from there. Wonderful.

  9. Chinese and Indian voters are now solid Liberal voters, this is why the Coalition will retain Chisholm and Reid and gain Parramatta. Labor could lose Fowler too. The Coalition will be re-elected.

  10. C@tmomma @ #1613 Friday, May 20th, 2022 – 6:34 pm

    Isn’t this election basically a contest between a good man and a bad man?

    No, it seems to be a contest between a hopeless party and an even more hopeless party. Let’s just hope enough independents and minors get elected to add some backbone to both.

  11. Osmond Chiu (赵明佑)@redrabbleroz
    · May 19
    A poll-shaped object from online Chinese-language media outlet Sydney Today. The poll w/ 6093 Chinese participants in Australia had ALP at almost 75% & under 18% for L/NP. This compares to 2019 #ausvotes poll they did where it was L/NP 61%, ALP 28% https://theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/election-2022-silent-uprising-at-coalitions-beijing-bombast/news-story/5e50c3694525eb795e0677732ad0c7c6 #auspol

  12. So I gave a brief history lesson to my offspring tonight on what happened with the CPRS politics; the disaster that was. Yes, I was there too. Still no interest in recriminations; I mean for most of my kids lives we have gone nowhere on climate change – yes, mainly through Abbott’s exploitation of the situation, but there’s nothing to be proud of here in how we all stuffed it for future generations. For the love of whatever or lack of God, move on.

    I will be on a polling booth tomorrow for the full yards, like I presume many here. Good on you all.

    I think if Newspoll was great news for the Coalition we would have heard it by now. Makes me more lean towards the 53/47 of the “between 53/47 and 52/48” I had a pick at earlier. I’m still running with my estimates from the other night right now and hoping I am not dreaming.

    Poll Bogan says:
    Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 5:53 pm
    Seats
    ALP/LNP/KAP/GRN/CA/Teal/other
    83/58/1/1/1/5/2

    TPP
    ALP / LNP
    52.2 / 47.8

    DECLARED, CONCEDES
    Saturday night 21:10; Saturday night 22:00

    Ugh, the kids are fighting. Don’t they know there are more important things here; my membership of the Poll Bludger Pissheads AND an election!

  13. Whoever said Roy Morgan’s poll was not new appears to be incorrect. I’m watching Afternoon Briefing and some lady from the Roy Morgan Institute said they polled up until last night and the numbers are the same (53-47 ALP). So, I think it’s safe to assume that this poll is indeed new.

  14. Bree is completely wrong. Chinese voters are swinging voters. Last time around they preferred Liberals by almost 50%, this time around it’s in the 20s (and a similar figure for the ALP). One of the major issues affecting Chinese voters in 2019 was taxation. One of the major issues affecting Chinese voters in this election is cost of living. There’s simply no good research out there that suggests there’s such a thing as a “Chinese vote”. The Australian electoral system is doing to Chinese Australians the same thing it’s always done to every group of immigrants: dividing them, attracting them, repelling them. Better off just thinking of them as Australians, because that’s the only that matters in the polling booth.

    In any case, being the preferred party of about 50%, which is the Liberals best effort, is hardly “solid”. It still left substantial voters preferring Labor, Greens and other parties.

  15. “Isn’t this election basically a contest between a good man and a bad man?”

    I mean, I see it that way but I am mindful that Marcus from Hillsong also sees it that way too only in his view Morrison is the righteous good man and Albanese is a heathen Catholic devil worshipper.

  16. Morgan is almost always in the field, it is just not always solely focused on politics. They do a lot of market research as well. They to gather political voting patterns for that work, but it is not a poll as such. So they ask who you vote for when they are asking about shopping or employment or media impact. They are probably reluctant to call it a poll as the sampling might not be quite as random as they would like.

  17. The 2019 result is distorting everything. It’s not my thing but betting odds at $1.50 for Labor seems like a decent investment if you’re inclined to take a punt.

  18. @Bree
    Wow, that’s a very interesting perspective!! I absolutely recommend you jump on Sportsbet as they have all but conceded Chisholm and Reid- you could make a killing!!

  19. Question: the Labor candidate for Deakin, Matt Gregg got the top spot on the ballot paper. His HTV simply runs the numbers (1 to 10) straight down the paper with no apparent regard to the relative merits of the other candidates. The Lib, Michael Sukkar was in sixth spot, so Gregg has him as No 6 above the other four below Sukkar.

    Is that usual if Labor happens to snag the top spot?

  20. I’ve had two of those health takeover whackjob texts from Clive tonight. I’ve blocked both numbers.

  21. Bodgie (Silver):

    Feyi Akindoyeni on the Drum seems to be a very intelligent person.

    I met Feyi when was with Apple in ’95 or ’96; interesting to see what she’s been doing since.

  22. Alex Dyson (Teal) in Wannon has had the best campaign ive seen down here, he is just one of those great talkers, has a presence etc.

    I think it might come down to him vs Tehan rather than ALP vs Tehan

  23. An interesting passage from the Roy Morgan website: http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/8981-federal-voting-election-summary-may-20-2022-202205200633

    ‘Shy Tories’ can cause the vote of right-wing parties and unpopular leaders to be under-estimated

    The so-called ‘Shy Tory’ effect is where people being interviewed (phone or face-to-face) don’t want to admit they are voting for the party that is ‘on the nose’ – usually the right-wing party such as the Conservatives in the UK, Republicans in the USA or the Coalition in Australia.

    Although this will only have a small impact on the overall picture, when the result is close a variation of 1-2% points on voting intention can make all the difference in whether a party can win a majority of seats or has to govern in a hung parliament with a minority.

    In this year’s Federal Election the unpopularity of Prime Minister Scott Morrison is widely known – particularly for women. Roy Morgan’s polling on ‘Trust’ and ‘Distrust’ in politicians shows PM Morrison is by far Australia’s most distrusted politician. The other most ‘distrusted’ politicians are senior cabinet colleagues Defence Minister Peter Dutton and Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce.

    In contrast, the politicians with the highest ‘net trust’ are ALP Senate Leader Labor Penny Wong and Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese.

    The high distrust of Morrison, Joyce and Dutton is a big negative for the Coalition, but it can also cause some voters who do plan to vote for the Liberal or National parties to ‘shy away’ from admitting that during a telephone interview.

    For many years during the 1950s and 1960s the Roy Morgan Gallup Poll encountered this issue when interviewing electors in relation to the DLP – Democratic Labor Party. The eventual solution, suggested by Professor Colin Hughes (who became the first Australian Electoral Commissioner in 1984), was to provide people being interviewed with a ‘secret ballot’.

    After Roy Morgan allowed people being interviewed to ‘cast their ballot’ during the interview in the same way as they did at the ballot box on election day – the estimated support for the DLP doubled immediately, and the Roy Morgan Gallup Poll correctly predicted their support at subsequent elections.

  24. @alias
    Yeah, pretty standard with so many candidates- if there’s only 4-5 in the race they may be more selective, but otherwise it’s keep it simple for the voters.

  25. No text messages from politicians or parties, but getting a few telling me that parcels I didn’t order have arrived …

  26. Bree says:
    Friday, May 20, 2022 at 6:39 pm
    “Chinese and Indian voters are now solid Liberal voters, this is why the Coalition will retain Chisholm and Reid and gain Parramatta. Labor could lose Fowler too. The Coalition will be re-elected.”

    Don’t be racist. Chinese and Indian voters are (generally) quite rational.
    Many run small businesses (true), but those small businesses were there last time too.

  27. I got a text from a Nigerian prince asking for my bank details because I won money.

    I trust him more than John Howard.

  28. alias

    That is not uncommon for the major parties to do that – especially when like in Deakin they know not one preference will be distributed past a Labor ‘1’. Similarly they sometimes do the reverse up the card from last place or ‘wrap around’ down from the middle and then start again from the top.

    Generally Labor wouldn’t do it if it out say One Nation at 2 or something like that even though that will make no difference. Obviously they are more careful in seats like Kooyong where their preferences will likely be distributed.

  29. Rewi @ #1558 Friday, May 20th, 2022 – 6:24 pm

    Tom

    Both the polls and then Leader of the Opposition ZRFK said Labor were going to win but no one was anywhere near the margin.

    Thanks Rewi, I thought that that might have been the case. So I’ll dare to dream this election then. I wasn’t all that surprided about 2019. Disappointed yes, but surprised, no. So many people that I spoke to, many ALP voters, hated Shorten. Albo has no such problem.

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