The final Ipsos poll of the campaign has dropped courtesy of the Financial Review, showing Labor leading 53-47 on its most straightforward measure of two-party preferred, applying 2019 preference flows and excluding all the undecided. The Coalition is up a solid four points on the primary vote since the weekend before last to 33%, but this partly reflects a two-point drop in undecided from 7% to 5%. Labor is down a point to 34%, the Greens are steady on 12% and others are down one to 15%.
Without excluding the undecided, Labor is down a point on the previous-election two-candidate preferred measure to 51% while the Coalition is up four to 44%. A further measure with respondent-allocated preferences has a higher undecided result of 11% (down four) which further includes those who were decided on the primary vote but not on preferences, on which Labor is down a point to 49% and the Coalition is up five to 40%.
Scott Morrison’s approval rating is up two to 34% with disapproval steady on 51%, while Anthony Albanese is up three to 33% and down one to 37%. Albanese maintains a 42-39 lead as preferred prime minister, in from 41-36 last time.
UPDATE: Labor’s lead on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate is now at 53.5-46.5, a narrowing that partly reflects the Ipsos result but has also been affected by a change I’ve made to the allocation of preferences, which continues to be based on flows at the 2019 election but now breaks out the United Australia Party from “others”. The measure is still more favourable to Labor than the account of internal party polling provided by Phillip Coorey in the Financial Review, which says Labor’s has it at about 52-48 while a Coalition source believes it “could be as close as 51-49”. Time will tell, but based on no end of historic precedent, such numbers seem more plausible to me than BludgerTrack’s, which exceed Labor’s performance at any election since 1943. A Newspoll that should be with us this evening will be the campaign’s last national poll, and perhaps its last poll full-stop.
Anne Ruston is not a good person.
Am I the only one wondering whether the Greens will demand free dental or a billionaires tax to pass the ALP’s FICAC legislation through the senate? After they discover some tiny element of it that they think isn’t as perfect as their plan.
“People like you are the exact reason the Greens still wallow around on a 10% Primary vote and 1 HoR seat after 30 years.”
***
In the space of that 30 years, we’ve gone from having literally 0 voters at the start to having 1,482,923 as of 2019. Truly phenomenal growth.
6 minutes ago.
The ALP has retained its lead over the L-NP in the final week of the election campaign and is set to win tomorrow’s Federal Election with a two-party preferred vote of ALP 53% cf. L-NP 47% – a swing of 4.5% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.
Bluey is doing some fine adjustments to his final numbers as we post. Bluey works in octal numbers so the first he has to do is to rework the data so that it makes sense to an occie.
Anne Ruston is not a good person.
_____
Complete with resting sourpuss face.
‘Firefox says:
Friday, May 20, 2022 at 4:51 pm
“People like you are the exact reason the Greens still wallow around on a 10% Primary vote and 1 HoR seat after 30 years.”
***
In the space of that 30 years, we’ve gone from having literally 0 voters at the start to having 1,482,923 as of 2019. Truly phenomenal growth.’
======================================
Spot the cult response!
BK
Who tweeted that ?
Loose unit
I hope Albo, if he is PM, will reorganise pressers.
I seem to remember when they sat in a room, orderly, but still asking hard questions on policy, not gotchas.
“Firefox, I rarely engage but how can you possibly say
“considering how much damage they are doing to the climate” when ALP are not in govt?”
***
Because Labor don’t have to be in government to damage the climate.
Here’s a perfect example of what I’m talking about from the most recent parliamentary sitting period (the Budget week)…
Unleaded 95 Petrol is now 231.9 c / litre near a service station near my home. It was 219.9 the day 20c excise Rebate was announced in budget.
ShaneB
http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/8981-federal-voting-election-summary-may-20-2022-202205200633
ALP retains lead over the L-NP in the final week and set to win the Federal Election
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May 20 2022 Finding No. 8981 Country:
The ALP has retained its lead over the L-NP in the final week of the election campaign and is set to win tomorrow’s Federal Election with a two-party preferred vote of ALP 53% cf. L-NP 47% – a swing of 4.5% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.
Roy Morgan continued interviewing throughout this week but there has been no evidence of a swing to the L-NP seen in previous weeks continuing during the final week of the campaign. In addition, of the 17.2 million Australians on the electoral roll, the AEC figures show that there are already over 7.3 million (42.7%) who have voted at a pre-poll location or who have requested or returned a postal vote.
Looks new.
The SmearStralian is leading with ‘Albo is exhausted ..’ – which is horseshit, he is just warming up
Sturt and Boothby earlier, mobbed…
https://twitter.com/7newsaustralia/status/1527471140146655234?s=21&t=w09d9zshzV-dOypwKqPrBw
Now hopping over to Bass, before up to Melbourne…
And 7.30Report tonight – hope he’s on before the footy
Where’d you see that BK – it isn’t on their website that I could see
There is a new Morgan out today.
53-47 the same as the last one
Scott from Adelaide
‘Firefox says:
In the space of that 30 years, we’ve gone from having literally 0 voters at the start to having 1,482,923 as of 2019. Truly phenomenal growth.’
__________
Absolutely. Most successful new party since the Liberals in 1944.
https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/8981-federal-voting-election-summary-may-20-2022-202205200633
The ALP has retained its lead over the L-NP in the final week of the election campaign and is set to win tomorrow’s Federal Election with a two-party preferred vote of ALP 53% cf. L-NP 47% – a swing of 4.5% points to the ALP since the 2019
At what time is Newspoll expected?
Please, everyone just STFU about the damned CPRS. It is ancient history. Abbott’s actions were rank vandalism and required a coup, Greens should, in retrospect, have voted with the government and Rudd should have gone to a DD election when they didn’t.
Everyone fucked up, and everyone should have gotten over it long a go.
New Morgan.. issued 20 May
L-NP’s primary vote is too low to win this year’s Federal Election
This week’s final Roy Morgan Poll showed support for the L-NP Coalition at only 34% of the primary vote – far too low for the party to have a chance of forming Government after the Federal Election.
At the 2019 Federal Election the Coalition received 41.4% of the primary vote to win a narrow majority. In the lead-up to the 2019 Federal Election the Roy Morgan Poll showed the Coalition with 39% of the primary vote – a full 5% points higher than now.
ALP primary support is also low at only 34%, however the ALP can rely on a strong preference flow from the Greens, primary support of 13%, to win enough seats to either form Government with a small majority, or to do a deal in a hung parliament to gain the extra 1-2 seats needed for a majority.
At the 2019 Federal Election Greens preferences flowed 82% ALP cf. 18% L-NP which with a Greens primary vote of 13% splits: ALP 10.5% cf. L-NP 2.5% – an 8% points advantage for the ALP.
……….
High support for minor parties and independents makes preference flow uncertain
The high support for the minor parties and independents makes predicting the preference flows of these voters and forecasting a national two-party preferred result even harder than usual. The final Roy Morgan Poll illustrates this difficulty.
Directing preferences from minor party and independent voters by how people voted at the 2019 Federal Election produces a two-party preferred vote of ALP 53% cf. L-NP 47%; however, directing preferences by respondent answers produces a far more favourable result for the ALP with a two-party preferred result of ALP 56.5% cf. L-NP 43.5%.
This difference of over 3% points could well be the difference between an ALP government with a hung parliament or a clear ALP majority in parliament.
Roy Morgan has analysed how voters behave on opinion poll surveys and when there is a clear belief one party is going to win – people are more likely to say they will also vote for that party. We saw this clearly in 2019 when a special Roy Morgan SMS Poll in the week of the election showed 66% of electors predicted the ALP would win the 2019 Federal Election compared to only 34% who said the Coalition would win.
There were even larger majorities of ALP supporters (81%) and Greens supporters (84%) who thought the ALP would win compared to only 47% of L-NP supporters. A slim majority of 53% of L-NP supporters said the Coalition would win – and they did.
https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/8981-federal-voting-election-summary-may-20-2022-202205200633
Tom @ #62 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 7:10 pm
Liberals first. Then Labor 🙂
Only Newspoll to go. If it is 53 or 52 ALP I’ll be happy. Waiting for newspoll before I post my prediction
ALP retains lead over the L-NP in the final week and set to win the Federal Election
May 20 2022 Topic: Federal Poll Press Release Public Opinion
The ALP has retained its lead over the L-NP in the final week of the election campaign and is set to win tomorrow’s Federal Election with a two-party preferred vote of ALP 53% cf. L-NP 47% – a swing of 4.5% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.
L-NP’s primary vote is too low to win this year’s Federal Election
This week’s final Roy Morgan Poll showed support for the L-NP Coalition at only 34% of the primary vote – far too low for the party to have a chance of forming Government after the Federal Election.
At the 2019 Federal Election the Coalition received 41.4% of the primary vote to win a narrow majority. In the lead-up to the 2019 Federal Election the Roy Morgan Poll showed the Coalition with 39% of the primary vote – a full 5% points higher than now.
ALP primary support is also low at only 34%, however the ALP can rely on a strong preference flow from the Greens, primary support of 13%, to win enough seats to either form Government with a small majority, or to do a deal in a hung parliament to gain the extra 1-2 seats needed for a majority.
At the 2019 Federal Election Greens preferences flowed 82% ALP cf. 18% L-NP which with a Greens primary vote of 13% splits: ALP 10.5% cf. L-NP 2.5% – an 8% points advantage for the ALP.
https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/8981-federal-voting-election-summary-may-20-2022-202205200633
Adam is on the news now. Looking like a man about to face a Marxist coup.
Already prefacing his obstructionism.
Funny there was a couple of coal loving muppets here yesterday, propagating anti-science climate catastrophe denial propaganda rubbish.
I noted at one point the non denialist question was how much steel could be green by 2030. Well it happens on Wednesday the EU answered this question, and the percentage is 30%.
Given the renewable generation, the green ammonia production and distribution all need to built from very little this is just amazing.
Europe is well over the idiotic coal thing, their plan is to reduce natural gas usage by 35 bcm beyond the existing fit for 55 target.
Roy Morgan continued interviewing throughout this week but there has been no evidence of a swing to the L-NP
Morgan primaries 34 ALP 34 LNP GRN 13
Thanks BK — Morgan dated today. So no change on 2019 prefs. Self-allocated prefs MUCH worse for LNP.
Shame no state breakdown.
BK
Thankyou sir !
Not much has changed. This is from PB on the 18th April:
The Australian brings us what is apparently the first ever Newspoll conducted over the Easter break, presumably portending weekly polling throughout the campaign. In what can only be a morale-booster for Labor after the troubled first week of its campaign, it records no change on two-party preferred, with Labor maintaining a lead of 53-47. Both major parties are down a point on the primary vote, Labor to 36% and the Coalition to 35%. The Greens are up two points to 12%, their best result since May last year, with One Nation and the United Australia Party both on 4%, respectively up one and steady.
nath @ #1417 Friday, May 20th, 2022 – 4:56 pm
Australian Democrats grew faster then imploded.
Warning – long post ahead…
Re ‘the perfect being the enemy of the good’ (at the heart of several Greens/Labor wars)…
Robert Watson-Watt led a team that pioneered radar in Britain (a team in Germany was developing the technology at about the same time.)
Watson-Watt adopted a philosophy of ‘third best first’, on the basis that ‘best never happens and second best never happens in time.’
The early British radar was technically inferior to the German technology, using metre-length wavebands and requiring enormous masts (looked a bit like electricity transmission towers, only bigger.)
The triumph? British radar was developed early enough for Air Chief Marshall Hugh Dowding, head of Fighter Command (who had encouraged technological development) to appreciate radar’s value and, most importantly, how it could be integrated into Britain’s air defence command and control system. Dowding’s system enabled results from radar stations to be logically passed along a clear chain of command, resulting in fighter squadrons being directed to the right part of the sky at the right time.
With the system and the third-best radar technology, Britain would have lost, with catastrophic consequences for history.
So, yes, Rudd negotiated an imperfect CPRS with Turnbull. But the Liberals’ rolling of Turnbull was a moment of opportunity: a couple of Libs crossed the Senate floor. Greens support for the CPRS would have been a major blow to Abbott – the ultimate wrecker of climate policy in this country.
Rudd canning climate action led directly to his reduced personal ratings, giving factional hacks the opportunity to knife him, putting us on the path to climate change oblivion.
A functioning CPRS would, like Medicare, be more accepted as NOT ending the world, hence defusing the climate war.
Not all of the disasters of the past 12 years are the Greens’ fault – I’m not arguing that they are. I am arguing that supporting the CPRS was an opportunity to take an imperfect step forward in climate action that would also clearly have politically wounded Abbott.
The Greens could’ve made a different choice and would’ve known the political environment in which they were making that choice.
autocratsays: Friday, May 20, 2022 at 4:58 pm
…”Please, everyone just STFU about the damned CPRS. It is ancient history. Abbott’s actions were rank vandalism and required a coup, Greens should, in retrospect, have voted with the government and Rudd should have gone to a DD election when they didn’t.
Everyone fucked up, and everyone should have gotten over it long a go.”
Seconded.
The Morgan didn’t have a swing to the limo at all, and David Speers just said “…that will tell whether Labor gets to the 76 it needs for a majority, or a minority”
He didn’t even mention the LNP having a chance of forming govt
Wishing all Bludgers a good Election Day tomorrow. Voted myself last week and hoping Kristy McBain gets to continue her good work for another term at least in EM.
Currently sitting with HI in a suite at The Hydro-Majestic overlooking the Gross Valley ( bit foggy/misty atm) and enjoying a bottle of bubbles, looking forward to a nice dinner in The Wintergarden restaurant tonight.
As an older white male I’m hoping that what has been a travesty of governance in the last 9 years comes to a crushing end tomorrow night and that we get to see SfM making a concession speech that includes his blaming of everyone but himself although I’m sure Jenny didn’t pull her weight so maybe she will ‘carry the can’, who knows?
Regardless, life will go on, and at best we can we just be good to people and carry on as best we can?
And look, if you are a Greens voter, just do it, preference Labor and then go off and have a drink of whatever ‘tickles your fancy’ but in the end realise that until your party leadership realise that they need to offer something that resonates with at least another 20% or the electorate, you are no better than the Nats; and they are just a nuisance .
Is Fran Kelly moving ever so slightly from her apparent love of the LNP?! – on the Guardian site just now –
Nationals senator Bridget McKenzie is up now. The ABC’s Greg Jennett asks her if it will “take a miracle” for the Coalition to win from here.
She smartly sidesteps that one to have a good old whack at the Greens, and calls for Labor to commit to regional funding programs that Fran Kelly quickly points out were part of the sports rorts saga.
Kelly asks:
Is it a bit rich and risky for you, particularly you, to be campaigning against Labor scrapping this fund, the fund the shadow finance minister Katy Gallagher calls a dodgy slush fund when you would be the minister in charge of this regionalisation fund, and you as minister were involved in the sports rorts community grants scandal that was condemned by the auditor-general, you are in the heart of that, and you would be in charge of this one?
All the rules were followed, McKenzie says.
So they get on the phone, establish ID, establish the electorate and then the AEC person reads every name on the ballot and the person chooses the number.
Imagine that with the senate ballots!
The inefficiencies in this are going to be massive.
There is zero prospect the AEC will be able to handle 200,000 voters over the phone between now and 6pm tomorrow.
Just for the record, my guess >>>
ALP 78 (+9)
Tories 65 (-11)
Others 8 (+2)
pattern against user – a lot of us have had the same argument with Firefox and Rex (and with Greens in real life) and it just seems like one of those intractable things that they can’t accept they made a strategic booboo to the point where they are acting like Morrison’s fake promise to abide by net zero by 2050 is worth more than locking in Rudd’s CPRS as a starting point- and a starting point broadly accepted by Australians- prior to 2010. Like Labor is responsible for what the Coalition has done since.
They also won’t accept that the Adani campaign in 2019 “was an error in judgment and climate change should have been campaigned about as a big issue, not a purity test of approving or rejecting one single mine, although you can see that Greens leadership DID take that lesson on board as they haven’t repeated the idiocy.
Just got to let them be in their delusion unfortunately.
Late Riser,
Please put me down for ALP 91 and LNP 52.
‘DPRee says:
Friday, May 20, 2022 at 5:08 pm
Is Fran Kelly moving ever so slightly from her apparent love of the LNP?! …’
===================
Her interview of Plibersek the other day was, IMO, rank.
Greens do cult magic thinking. They never make a mistake. It is always someone else’s fault. Just like Morrison. Same same.
Also they need to completely remove coal from Australian electricity generation asap, the coal generation capacity is unreliable the key contribution to really high prices. Needs to be made redundant with bucket loads of firmed new renewables.
Thirded
The Roy Morgan still has a 56.5 to 43.5 2PP based on respondent answers of where they’ll preference.
Well, it seems that Morrison is still here in the West (in Perth).
His track apparently has been – Hasluck – Pearce – Cowan and it looks like, Curtin at the end of the day…So, it seems a mixture of defence and hope…..
His first cab off the rank was Hasluck which suggests the Libs are worried about this – so sandbag……Pearce – even money bet but really one for Labor. Cowan – fair enough as the margin is very skinny for Labor….But the real worry it seems is Curtin….fancy having to defend such a former blue ribbon Liberal seat…
However, no Swan….That is a surprise to me………………………………….
Swan might be gone?
“Am I the only one wondering whether the Greens will demand free dental or a billionaires tax to pass the ALP’s FICAC legislation through the senate? After they discover some tiny element of it that they think isn’t as perfect as their plan.”
If they hold the FICAC to ransom they will get Democrat’d. I can see the Greens trying to hold other bills for ransom if they are needed to pass legislation in the Senate, but not FICAC.