Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor

Evidence that late deciders are breaking to the Coalition, but Labor maintains a solid lead in the final Ipsos poll.

The final Ipsos poll of the campaign has dropped courtesy of the Financial Review, showing Labor leading 53-47 on its most straightforward measure of two-party preferred, applying 2019 preference flows and excluding all the undecided. The Coalition is up a solid four points on the primary vote since the weekend before last to 33%, but this partly reflects a two-point drop in undecided from 7% to 5%. Labor is down a point to 34%, the Greens are steady on 12% and others are down one to 15%.

Without excluding the undecided, Labor is down a point on the previous-election two-candidate preferred measure to 51% while the Coalition is up four to 44%. A further measure with respondent-allocated preferences has a higher undecided result of 11% (down four) which further includes those who were decided on the primary vote but not on preferences, on which Labor is down a point to 49% and the Coalition is up five to 40%.

Scott Morrison’s approval rating is up two to 34% with disapproval steady on 51%, while Anthony Albanese is up three to 33% and down one to 37%. Albanese maintains a 42-39 lead as preferred prime minister, in from 41-36 last time.

UPDATE: Labor’s lead on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate is now at 53.5-46.5, a narrowing that partly reflects the Ipsos result but has also been affected by a change I’ve made to the allocation of preferences, which continues to be based on flows at the 2019 election but now breaks out the United Australia Party from “others”. The measure is still more favourable to Labor than the account of internal party polling provided by Phillip Coorey in the Financial Review, which says Labor’s has it at about 52-48 while a Coalition source believes it “could be as close as 51-49”. Time will tell, but based on no end of historic precedent, such numbers seem more plausible to me than BludgerTrack’s, which exceed Labor’s performance at any election since 1943. A Newspoll that should be with us this evening will be the campaign’s last national poll, and perhaps its last poll full-stop.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,831 comments on “Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Boerwar: “There is NO WAY that Australia could persuade India and China to stop increasing their CO2 emissions in good faith or in bad faith. ”

    There’s no way if we’re emitting more carbon per capita than they are. Which. We. Are.

    The point.

  2. Arky @ #47 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 5:04 pm

    “34 and 33 for primaries is so low…”

    That’s with don’t knows. Ipsos have always given noticeably high 3rd party and others readings. It is going to be interesting to see how that pans out. The Teals mean there SHOULD be elevated IND votes this time you’d think.

    Presence of Teals should probably also whack a little bit off the primaries of Labor and Greens, what with tactical voting for them where they’re running – would expect Labor and Greens votes to be slightly above the national primary trend in seats without Teal candidates.

  3. Confessions at 6.44 re Rudd on Project…

    I watched the clip and was reminded why I remain a Rudd fan. Brilliant communicator.

    If only I could go back to 2010 and do a number on Bittar, Howes et al…

  4. What has happened with the polling is what we all expected to happen to the polling.

    Back when the polling was 56/44 or there abouts, we all said that would be great but that wont and cant be the election figure and that it would come back somewhere toward Rudd or Hawkes wins in 2007 and 1983….and, well….here we are. enjoy the moment.

    Predict 53/47 Newspoll, and because the pendulum is out of whack because of such a bad loss in Qld last time, Albo wont get Rudds score of 83….but my prediction of 80 now looking pretty good to get the biscuit

  5. May as well use Antony Greens’s election calculator. I go for ALP at 52.0% 2PP, which comes out at 77 seats.

    But it would be long night, even a few days until a result is certain enough for Albanese to be sworn in!

  6. pukka: “Production starts 2026.”

    For the record, I knew this. I think it is a fantastic development that is going to revolutionalize our world. But… you know… 2026 ain’t 2022.

    It’s going to take a long time to build out that capacity. Decades. I’m an optimist. I think it’s just going to continue accelerating and accelerating until 15 years from now energy will be a fraction of the cost it is today, and it will be almost entirely renewable. But that steel infrastructure isn’t going to just magically appear, and a lot of steel is going to need to get made to make all of that happen. That’s a reality. And if you stand in the way of that by stopping coking coal, you’re a climate vandal. And stupid.

  7. Snappy Tom @ #944 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 6:11 pm

    GlenO at 4.51 re replacement Senators…

    It is only a ‘convention’ for State Premiers to replace resigned/deceased Senators with one a) from the previous Senator’s party; and/or b) recommended by that party.

    Askin and Bjelke-Petersen were legally entitled to ignore this convention in their participation in the Tory conspiracy against Whitlam.

    It actually isn’t just a convention. It was, until 1977, when there was a referendum on the issue.

    It’s now stated in the constitution that if the party still exists, then the replacement must come from that party. I don’t know what happens if they’re an independent, etc.

  8. Pi says:
    Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 7:05 pm

    Boerwar: “There is NO WAY that Australia could persuade India and China to stop increasing their CO2 emissions in good faith or in bad faith. ”

    There’s no way if we’re emitting more carbon per capita than they are. Which. We. Are.

    The point.
    =================
    Even if we had zero tomorrow there is NO WAY that China and India would change their trajectories a jot or a tittle. Our 1.8% is irrelevant to the big boys in town.

    The point.

    The claim that the Liberals would get the world temperature to 3 degrees, Labor would get the world temperature to 2 degrees and the Greens and Teals would hold the world to 1.5 degrees is both a scientific and a political lie.

    I fully support that Australia must stop emitting 1.8% of the world’s CO2

  9. And very predictably Sportsbet odds have started moving since that Ipsos Poll

    Before

    Labor 1.53, Coalition 2.65
    (Implies chance of Labor Govt = 63.4%)

    After

    Labor 1.50, Coalition2.70 : Labor = 64.3%
    Labor 1.48, Coalition 2.80 : Labor = 65.4%

  10. Boerwar: “Even if we had zero tomorrow there is NO WAY that China and India would change their trajectories a jot or a tittle. Our 1.8% is irrelevant to the big boys in town.”

    China has done more to address their carbon emissions than we have. It is pretty much a certainty that China and India will NEVER emit as much carbon per capita as we have in Australia, and have done for a century or more. There will be NO yearly comparison that will EVER exist that shows ANY year of Australia’s carbon emissions per capita, is better than China’s worst.

    And you’re still here like the little trumpkins saying it’s all China’s fault.

    Boerwar: “I fully support that Australia must stop emitting 1.8% of the world’s CO2”

    Then stick to that sentence, because you don’t really have a grasp on any other part of this discussion.

  11. William, any word on whether Newspoll will publish a state breakdown along with the final Newspoll?

    The story of this election is pretty different based on WHERE the swing is or isn’t and the lack of Queensland data remains a bit of a puzzler.

  12. Late Riser

    By the way I saw on your table you had a prediction from me at 80 seats and election to be called by January!

    This is surely an error – I’m pretty sure I have made no prediction. I may have put an 80 or 81 last time in 2019 but I am loath to do any now. I will be happy with 73 or more but don’t like to think too hard about what it will actually be.

  13. Betting is not predictive, it’s reactive.

    Also glad I put $100 at 2.50 on an ALP majority yesterday. In to $2.05 now.

  14. ANTARCTIC LUNAR ECLIPSE: Around the world, millions of people saw this week’s lunar eclipse. Only a handful saw it from Antarctica. Thomas Leps sends this picture from the geographic South Pole:

    Leps operates the international BICEP array at the Amundsen–Scott South Pole Station. “We examine the polarization of the cosmic microwave background to look for evidence of gravity waves and primordial black holes in the early universe,” he explains.

    On May 15th he took a break to go outside and photograph the lunar eclipse.

    “I was taking a time-lapse of the eclipse, but my camera shut off in the cold–the temperature was about -80F with 15 knots of wind,” says Leps. “When I got it running again, a very bright aurora appeared in a single band across the entire sky, intersecting the Milky Way and passing over the eclipsed moon. I set up my camera as quickly as I could. Setting the camera can be tricky at these temperatures because the rear screen tends to freeze up after a little over a minute outside. In this case it all came together to make a great picture to remember the day by when I’m up North again.”

    https://spaceweathergallery.com/indiv_upload.php?upload_id=184947

  15. Boerwar:
    “I fully support that Australia must stop emitting 1.8% of the world’s CO2”

    And you obviously also support Australia stop being the second largest exporter of coal in the world, and the 11th largest emitter of CO2 per capita, do you?

  16. Freya Stark says:
    Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 6:46 pm
    Malcolm Mackerras predicting a bare Labor majority of 76 seats, 1 Green gain and no Teal gains. One term Albo?

    _______________________________
    Freya!
    – I’ll take one term if we see an ICAC before Christmas!
    (Albo will be in forever because once the Federal ICAC is set up the entire LNP front bench will all suddenly feel the need to spend a lot more time with their families….)

  17. Lynchpin

    Yes but i’m trying to remember the last + or – 3 on 2pp that newspoll has had.

    Would have to have been something pretty drastic that happened ( even factoring in undecideds coming home )

  18. Pi says:
    Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 7:15 pm

    The claim that the Liberals would get the world temperature to 3 degrees, Labor would get the world temperature to 2 degrees and the Greens and Teals would hold the world to 1.5 degrees is both a scientific and a political lie.

    China, India and the rest of the world, the ones who emit 98 % of the world’s emissions will do what they want to do. You can wriggle as much as you like but there is nothing any or all of the Australian political parties can do about that.

  19. Jaeger

    Thanks for that spectacular picture.

    Antarctic bases use diesel generators for electricity for heating don’t they? Does anyone know what failsafe mechanisms they have for emergency heating if their primary method fails?

    I’ve known a few people in the past who worked there and meant to ask them this.

  20. Two things… for the lnp to win they need to outpoll Labor on primary votes by more than 5% and the low primary votes for both parties make the chance of independent wins in total much higher

  21. Starting to feel a little more confident. Will hold my breath until Newspoll drops though, and then again until Saturday night. As others have said, I remember the commentary around the SA election was how it was going to be tight, with a group of the top journos in an ABC segment all predicting a hung parliament. Looking at the polls I found that hard to believe, and placed a not insignificant amount of money on seats and results reflecting as such. Cleaned up.

  22. Snappy Tom: I agree , Bitar, Arbib and Paul Howe’s ended Labor’s last chance at a long stint of government. Where are these turkeys now? If I was into conspiracy theory I’d reckon they pulled a job on the ALPs most popular leader in a generation. Anyway here’s to Albo the guy who stuck by Rudd and Rudd is returning the favour, he might just make us forget about that heartbreaking period.

  23. Snappy Tom, i am with you all the way. Rudd would have been in government for three terms if not for the factions and the rotten SDA and Bill Shorten. He would have also done something about Murdoch as well. He cut through and people loved him. Bitar and Arbib where did they end up? Working for Packer.

  24. Primaries of 33 and 34.

    Preferences are going to be extraordinary on Saturday night. I still think Labor wins but its a heroic assumption to take 2019 preference flow with primary votes this low.

    Maybe its going to be a 3 party parliament:

    Labor
    Libs/Nats
    Simon Holmes A Court Teals
    Independents/Green

    ScoMo going to Werriwa 2 days before the election / Albo in North Sydney.

    Its the end days!!!

  25. Prince planet says:
    Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 7:34 pm

    Snappy Tom: I agree , Bitar, Arbib and Paul Howe’s ended Labor’s last chance at a long stint of government.
    ________
    A lot more people were involved than that lot. It was a conspiracy of Dunces.

  26. mark 22 says:
    Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 7:34 pm

    Snappy Tom, i am with you all the way. Rudd would have been in government for three terms if not for the factions and the rotten SDA and Bill Shorten.
    ______
    Mark I could kiss you.

  27. Boerwar, Australia at least must do their part on emissions. It is not up to us to lecture China and India whom want to be like us in regards to having everything unless we make changes as well. We should also stop selling coal to both of them. We need to sell lithium and nickel to them instead.

  28. mark 22 @ #85 Thursday, May 19th, 2022 – 5:34 pm

    Snappy Tom, i am with you all the way. Rudd would have been in government for three terms if not for the factions and the rotten SDA and Bill Shorten. He would have also done something about Murdoch as well. He cut through and people loved him. Bitar and Arbib where did they end up? Working for Packer.

    The sooner the ALP jettisons the SDA, the better. Irrecoverably social-conservative white-anters.

  29. mark 22: “We should also stop selling coal to both of them.”

    You realize that China is the largest manufacturer of solar infrastructure in the world, right? So you reckon we should kill that industry? So that they’re forced to use more coal?

    What we should do is focus on fixing our own back yard. When we fix our back yard, we can teach other people how to fix theirs.

  30. Just think of the poor voters in Bragg. Had to endure the state election where Chapman somehow was reelected, then the federal election where my guess is they will take out their anger and give Labor another seat because they now have a third election to vote for a replacement for Chapman (probably Dr Swift who is going to lose Boothby).

  31. ‘mark 22 says:
    Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 7:38 pm

    Boerwar, Australia at least must do their part on emissions. It is not up to us to lecture China and India whom want to be like us in regards to having everything unless we make changes as well. We should also stop selling coal to both of them. We need to sell lithium and nickel to them instead.’
    ==================================
    The claim that the Liberals would get the world temperature to 3 degrees, Labor would get the world temperature to 2 degrees and the Greens and Teals would hold the world to 1.5 degrees is both a scientific and a political lie.

    China, India and the rest of the world, the ones who emit 98 % of the world’s emissions will do what they want to do. That is not lecturing them. It is an observation of how sovereignty works.

    There is nothing any or all of the Australian political parties can do about that. That is the truth.

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