The final Ipsos poll of the campaign has dropped courtesy of the Financial Review, showing Labor leading 53-47 on its most straightforward measure of two-party preferred, applying 2019 preference flows and excluding all the undecided. The Coalition is up a solid four points on the primary vote since the weekend before last to 33%, but this partly reflects a two-point drop in undecided from 7% to 5%. Labor is down a point to 34%, the Greens are steady on 12% and others are down one to 15%.
Without excluding the undecided, Labor is down a point on the previous-election two-candidate preferred measure to 51% while the Coalition is up four to 44%. A further measure with respondent-allocated preferences has a higher undecided result of 11% (down four) which further includes those who were decided on the primary vote but not on preferences, on which Labor is down a point to 49% and the Coalition is up five to 40%.
Scott Morrison’s approval rating is up two to 34% with disapproval steady on 51%, while Anthony Albanese is up three to 33% and down one to 37%. Albanese maintains a 42-39 lead as preferred prime minister, in from 41-36 last time.
UPDATE: Labor’s lead on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate is now at 53.5-46.5, a narrowing that partly reflects the Ipsos result but has also been affected by a change I’ve made to the allocation of preferences, which continues to be based on flows at the 2019 election but now breaks out the United Australia Party from “others”. The measure is still more favourable to Labor than the account of internal party polling provided by Phillip Coorey in the Financial Review, which says Labor’s has it at about 52-48 while a Coalition source believes it “could be as close as 51-49”. Time will tell, but based on no end of historic precedent, such numbers seem more plausible to me than BludgerTrack’s, which exceed Labor’s performance at any election since 1943. A Newspoll that should be with us this evening will be the campaign’s last national poll, and perhaps its last poll full-stop.
It looks like ScoMo is going to do it – waste an entire day in WA. Dumbfounded. Has he given up on the East Coast?
Prime minister Scott Morrison has arrived at the Sikh Gurdwara Perth, a temple in Hasluck.
Morrison is here with both the Indigenous affairs minister, Ken Wyatt, and the MP for abolished electorate Stirling, Vince Connelly, who is vying to replace Anne Aly in neighbouring Cowan. The prime minister will announce an election commitment of $1.3m for a sporting complex.
Meanwhile Albo is hitting multiple States… local coverage in each one.
Lynchpin @ #1347 Friday, May 20th, 2022 – 4:01 pm
Rural voters are pretty rusted on – even though lismore has flooded twice, they will still probably re-elect the member, even after they have done nothing for them.
SfM just trying to get an extra 2 hours as Prime Minister, thinking that’s how it works.
He’ll fly out for Hawaii tonight. He doesn’t hold a HTV anyway, not his job.
@Firefox
“Labor won’t have a majority in the Senate, regardless of what happens in the House, so I wouldn’t count on it.”
And this is the exact reason why, after 2007, I stopped voting for the Greens and I now preference them lower than the centre/centre right independents on the ballot.
This attitude that a party (the greens) that averages around 10% of the vote should have their policies pushed by the party that is in government is just dumbfounding.
They joined with Tony fucking Abbott for christssake! to destroy Rudd Labors climate change policies because they selfishly wanted their own policy instead..
That one moment in time gave Abbott and the hard right fringe of the coalition all the oxygen it needed to take control of the liberal party from the moderates.
The result?…. Nearly 15 years of climate inaction..
They couldve allowed the labor policy through the senate and then spent the following years working with labor to inprove it.. but no… they chose to destroy it instead and it openned the door to Abbott and resulted in 15 years of little to no climate change action at all..
Way to cut off your nose to spite your face you stupid fuckin morons..
Now we have Bandt on radio all this week crapping on about what greens policies/ideologies he is going to try and force the, hopefully, new labor government to implement in the next parliament..
Its deja vu all over again.
everytime I hear him on radio up here I cringe as I can literally feel 1000’s of QLDers that were thinking of voting labor change their minds and move back into the liberal column..
That ridiculously dumb greens anti adani convoy in 2019 basically handed QLD to the LNP on a platter. Possibly the worst “reading of the room” from a political party in recent history.
@Late Riser: That’s the one, thanks.
Mr L. Riser; could you put me down 77 ALP and 3 Ind
Cheers
pattern against user.
Please, go on, tell us how a party that got 28.79% of the vote deserves sole control over the upper house, and how it’s unfair that they need to work with others.
Who will he crash tackle this time? A 90yo lawn bowls player?
Hugoaugogo – I think we are largely on the same page. I’m just offering a different point of view on the discussion leading up to the SSM vote. For many of us, it did not feel like the debate was conducted respectfully.
@ Late Riser
Hey mate,
Could you please add my final numbers as below when you get a chance, much appreciated.
ALP 74-
Pearce
Boothby
Chisholm
Reid
Bradden
Swan
LIBNAT 68
GRN 1
UAP 0
PHON 0
KAT 1
IND 6
CA 1
Crikey Moses!! Is Jonathan Lea, just on Sky, genuinely respecting Albo or being smarmy?
He’s been monstering Albo all campaign but 2 reports I’ve seen today are a complete turn around.
BH @ #1360 Friday, May 20th, 2022 – 4:14 pm
the media have started being nice to albo – it makes me think they may realise labor may win this.
The loose unit says:
Friday, May 20, 2022 at 4:06 pm
Lynchpin @ #1347 Friday, May 20th, 2022 – 4:01 pm
Sportsbet odds for Hogan (Nationals) in Page have some into $1.25 and gone out for the Teal and the ALP candidate.
Disappointing if no inroads made in this seat.
Rural voters are pretty rusted on – even though lismore has flooded twice, they will still probably re-elect the member, even after they have done nothing for them.
中华人民共和国
Harry Woods “The Punters Pal” was the best MP Page ever had.
He always wants the last word; may it be so.
Greg Rudd @ #1251 Friday, May 20th, 2022 – 2:41 pm
Sarah Richards’ base is in the Hawkesbury end of the electorate. There are a lot of people there who were terribly disappointed with the government response to the floods.
No sign of any pork barreling here even though it’s the most marginal electorate in the country. I suspect the Libs wrote it off very early.
autocrat, didn’t you get a giant tunnel? Or is that too far west? or a NSW Gov thing?
“So about the last six weeks of hyper-partisan media coverage… kids these days.
We were always behind you… No need for a Royal Commission, eh?”
Betfair ALP 1.54 Coalition 2.88
$6.88m bets.
North Korea said Friday that nearly 10% of its 26 million people have fallen ill and 65 people have died amid its first COVID-19 outbreak, as outside experts question the validity of its reported fatalities and worry about a possible humanitarian crisis.
Voice Endeavour @ #1365 Friday, May 20th, 2022 – 4:21 pm
State government, waste of money IMO. All the feds are giving us is an airport with 24/7 low-flying aircraft.
“Please, go on, tell us how a party that got 28.79% of the vote deserves sole control over the upper house, and how it’s unfair that they need to work with others.”
***
Exactly.
Rudd’s failed CPRS, which Labor tried to negotiate and pass with the help of the Coalition, would have left us in a worse position than we are right now under Morrison! That’s how useless it would have been. To increase it’s effectiveness further would have required the payment of billions and billions in compensation to all the big polluters. It was both an environmental and economic disaster in one. It really is such a good thing that it never happened.
When the Greens gained the balance of power in the Senate after the 2010 Election, we used that combined with also being in the balance of power in the House to get our policy of the ETS/Carbon Price implemented as a result of being part of the Gillard/Bandt/Ind minority government. The Greens are directly responsible for the only really serious attempt the Australian Parliament has made to tackle the climate emergency.
Fast-forward to 2022 and we find Labor still trying to have a bet each way on climate and sit on the fence. They’ve learned nothing from their mistakes of 2019 and are still backing in coal and gas.
A vote for Labor or the Coalition is a vote to keep making the climate crisis worse – it is a vote for more coal and gas.
Voice endevour
“Please, go on, tell us how a party that got 28.79% of the vote deserves sole control over the upper house, and how it’s unfair that they need to work with others.”
Please, go on, tell us all where I said they deserved sole control over the upper house..
What I said was the greens shouldve worked constructively with labor, got a policy to tackle up and running, regardless of whether they thought it went far enough or not, and then worked with labor in the next few years to improve on it..
Instead, the dumbfucks, chose the nuclear option and sided with Abbott of all people.
And the result is, due in large part to the greens stamping their feet and squealing our way or the highway, the last 15 years of climate change policy inaction.
What a fucking brilliant outcome. Such an amazing achievement. They should be so proud of themselves.
scomo did a seat run in 2019 like albo is doing this time around.
pattern against user
You’re saying the greens should have voted for Labor’s proposal, without any requirement by Labor to modify their proposal to compromise and deliver some portion of the policy direction and ambition the greens wanted.
And then the greens should have, after rolling over and giving Labor everything they wanted, then asked Labor really nicely to improve the policy, after the greens through all their leverage away?
No. No thanks.
For all the latent appliance fetishists that have been posting here today – maybe time to join the First Church of Appliantology:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gUqEj2xZFw8&list=PLPSqbHbxawbyTwtIzYZ-g6CbPEBJOyjTr&index=10
Firefox says:
Friday, May 20, 2022 at 2:35 pm
“After Labor get a majority, hopefully he will go PFFF!.”
***
“Labor won’t have a majority in the Senate, regardless of what happens in the House, so I wouldn’t count on it.”
Reaches for scissors. Goes for a run.
DB Cooper says:
Friday, May 20, 2022 at 4:35 pm
For all the latent appliance fetishists that have been posting here today – maybe time to join the First Church of Appliantology:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gUqEj2xZFw8&list=PLPSqbHbxawbyTwtIzYZ-g6CbPEBJOyjTr&index=10
_______________________
Not for me, I believe in Silicon Heaven
“What I said was the greens shouldve worked constructively with labor”
***
The Greens repeatedly offered to work with Rudd on the CPRS but Labor refused and insisted on trying to negotiate it with the Coalition instead. It’s not their fault that the duopoly came up with something designed so poorly that no party that took the climate crisis seriously could ever support.
Those arguing in favour of the CPRS are actually arguing in favour of taking less action than Morrison is right now. Nobody who takes the climate emergency seriously could ever support such a position.
‘Silicon Heaven’ sounds like the title of a porn film
If Labor get a majority just wait for the greens in the senate to get over having to run back to the green chamber to discuss things
They’ll drop bandt in a heartbeat to put their leader where the action will be.
FWIW and a sample of one. On vote compass I align pretty very closely to Green values and voted Green a number of times. Since the CPRS I have voted Labor. As I age I have learnt sometimes you have to concede that the best result isn’t possible and compromise is the only option.
Of course I will never know if the CPRS would have been modified over time to be more effective. I am confident it would have been better than what unfolded.
I admire the unbridled enthusiasm to pursue the best solution but I no longer feel it is the best way forward.
We all know how the Greens ‘offer to work with Labor’:
Seven Demands. $173 billion.
Mind you that is only half the demands of Xi who has 14 Demands on the table and who is ONLY doing $20 billion worth of trade damage.
Fire-Fox at 4.27
No, it wouldn’t have.
Asha says:
Friday, May 20, 2022 at 3:34 pm
—————————–
Nice handle, ‘Asha’. Do you take it to mean ‘truth’, as it is in Mithraism?
Dr X says:
Friday, May 20, 2022 at 4:40 pm
‘Silicon Heaven’ sounds like the title of a porn film
中华人民共和国
https://www.siliconheaven.com.au/
that remark about the CPRS is based on the assumption it would not have been beefed up in any way.
Silly point of argument.
Silicon != silicone.
Dr X says:
Friday, May 20, 2022 at 4:40 pm
‘Silicon Heaven’ sounds like the title of a porn film
_____________________
Oh no far more serious, the electronic afterlife, its where all the calculators, photocopiers and appliance go at the end of their lives after serving their human masters-it gives them a purpose.
Ruston basically says that voters at Melbourne prepoll aren’t talking to the Libs.
“Since the CPRS I have voted Labor.”
***
2007 was the last time I voted Labor. Not just because of the CPRS but it was one of the big reasons why I’ve been a Green ever since. Would never vote for Labor now considering how much damage they are doing to the climate, among many other reasons.
Its all right here
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lm6YnAqPv4w
Voice endevour
So your saying you’ve happy that the greens went the nuclear option, sided with Tony Abbott instead and the outcome, 15 years of climate change policy inaction, has been the best result?.. really?.
Surely you cannot be that stubborn as to think this was, and has been, a great outcome..
Is your face happy without its nose?…
First Dog:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/may/20/what-will-it-be-like-or-what-would-it-have-been-like-under-an-albo-government
“that remark about the CPRS is based on the assumption it would not have been beefed up in any way.”
***
To beef it up would have required the payment of billions and billions in compensation to all the big polluters. That’s how it was designed to work. Without paying zillions in compo to make it even slightly more effective, it would have left us in a worse position than we are now under Morrison.
@autocrat & @Greg Rudd re Macquarie
I’m a Macquarie resident, know Susan quite well and have had some exposure to the campaign.
Autocrat is correct, there has been quite a bit of anger from the Hawkesbury end of the electorate (Lib heartland) over the floods and the tardy follow up on providing assistance. Up the other end where I live in the Blue Mountains we were hit by bushfires in 2019/20 and many people up here were underwhelmed by Scotty’s Hawaiin sojourn whilst the country burned (it’s why I’ve got a don’t hold a hose placard displayed on our bushy block).
There has only been minor pork rolled out here by the Libs. Plus candidate Sarah Richards hit some hurdles early by falsely claiming she was a practicing solicitor on her CV when she wasn’t and an argument over the status of her husband’s occupation, who appears to be a real estate agent that also offers property development services (Sarah is a Hawkesbury Councillor that votes on DAs).
Susan has been effectively campaigning on the ground here non-stop for 3 years. She is a genuinely warm person who easily makes connections with local residents regardless of their political colour. She puts in a lot of work around the Hawkesbury and despite being a Labor member in a pro-Liberal area down there, has the respect of locals for her campaigning work on local issues there.
I would say once it became clear some time ago that the LNP were not going to get a swing in NSW, the Libs put Macquarie in the too hard basket and focussed on more winnable seats like Parramatta and Gilmore.
Firefox at 4:27. People like you are the exact reason the Greens still wallow around on a 10% Primary vote and 1 HoR seat after 30 years. You have no idea whatsoever about how to Govern and Legislate and be part of an effective Progressive Government. And your beloved Senate can do NOTHING except obstruct. I can’t believe the Greens are so utterly ineffective and have learnt exactly zero after all these years, it’s shameful, it’s a disgrace. And don’t respond with your coulda’, woulda’, shoulda’s – it means nothing.
Firefox, I rarely engage but how can you possibly say
“considering how much damage they are doing to the climate” when ALP are not in govt? The last time they “did something” they lost power and it was unwound.
So you are seriously saying that?
Yes Ann Ruston very downbeat indeed. She looks utterly defeated.
I find this very interesting. Leading into the last election 3aw afternoon host Tom Elliott spoke to a data analyst, a woman, who correctly predicted that despite what all the polls were saying, the Liberals would get up and win it.
Today he spoke to her again and asked what her data was telling her this time. She said it is showing that Labor will either have a small majority or more likely be leading a minority government. She gave the Liberals very little chance.
Roy Morgan 53-47… is this a new poll or old