The final Ipsos poll of the campaign has dropped courtesy of the Financial Review, showing Labor leading 53-47 on its most straightforward measure of two-party preferred, applying 2019 preference flows and excluding all the undecided. The Coalition is up a solid four points on the primary vote since the weekend before last to 33%, but this partly reflects a two-point drop in undecided from 7% to 5%. Labor is down a point to 34%, the Greens are steady on 12% and others are down one to 15%.
Without excluding the undecided, Labor is down a point on the previous-election two-candidate preferred measure to 51% while the Coalition is up four to 44%. A further measure with respondent-allocated preferences has a higher undecided result of 11% (down four) which further includes those who were decided on the primary vote but not on preferences, on which Labor is down a point to 49% and the Coalition is up five to 40%.
Scott Morrison’s approval rating is up two to 34% with disapproval steady on 51%, while Anthony Albanese is up three to 33% and down one to 37%. Albanese maintains a 42-39 lead as preferred prime minister, in from 41-36 last time.
UPDATE: Labor’s lead on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate is now at 53.5-46.5, a narrowing that partly reflects the Ipsos result but has also been affected by a change I’ve made to the allocation of preferences, which continues to be based on flows at the 2019 election but now breaks out the United Australia Party from “others”. The measure is still more favourable to Labor than the account of internal party polling provided by Phillip Coorey in the Financial Review, which says Labor’s has it at about 52-48 while a Coalition source believes it “could be as close as 51-49”. Time will tell, but based on no end of historic precedent, such numbers seem more plausible to me than BludgerTrack’s, which exceed Labor’s performance at any election since 1943. A Newspoll that should be with us this evening will be the campaign’s last national poll, and perhaps its last poll full-stop.
Best wishes all round for some happily shared democracy sausages for the election tomorrow. The ability to peacefully transfer power from corrupt to non-corrupt governments is still one of the best things about Australia. Lets hope it stays that way tomorrow.
Anyone looking for some interesting videos to listen to, I found these interesting on the national security question.
This is Kevin Rudd talking about how to deal with China. Rudd knows his stuff. The threat of China is ral, but there are smarter ways to go about countering it than shouting at Xi while mucking up defence contract management.
https://www.aspi.org.au/video/conversation-hon-mr-kevin-rudd
This second one is a video about a high level wargame (played in the USA) of a potential China – USA conflict over Taiwan. Sobering how quickly Australia gets drawn into it, and how casually they discuss bombing US bases in Darwin.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qYfvm-JLhPQ
And no, there is nothing about submarines 🙂
So Ipsos and now Morgan are both 53-47.
Dare to dream people.
https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/8981-federal-voting-election-summary-may-20-2022-202205200633
Bystander @ #1446 Friday, May 20th, 2022 – 5:14 pm
The trouble is that it is doomed to be repeated by the Greens.
Bw
Yes, I expect huge issues with the phone voting. However, I would imagine the number will be as high as 200,000 voters. Some I imagine will have applied for and received postal votes. Of course, this should have been planned for, as this situation was entirely foreseeable.
Albo today in Sturt and Boothby, then down to Bass in Tasmania, in Victoria now(not sure which seats he’s visiting).
I’d assume it’s back to Sydney tonight, actually a morning tour of marginal seats in Sydney after he’s voted in Grayndler would be a good idea(Reid, Bennelong, Parramatta etc).
`from Josh Butler, Guardian
Bass MP Bridget Archer asked about Scott Morrison:
Q: is he the right person to lead Liberals?
Archer: “those will be decisions that will be had into the future as they always are”
Q: your view on him remaining leader?
Archer: “I don’t have a view at the moment”
Post featuring YouGov for Pearce. Perhaps consistent with ALP leaking they believe they have a 53-47 split in marginals?
https://twitter.com/kevinbonham/status/1527538424525099009?cxt=HHwWgsCg6dKG9LIqAAAA
If Newspoll was good for the Coalition surely The Australian would have published by now?
It looks to me like the LNP decided to put Scomo where he was least hated. Focus groups probably said he could do the least damage in WA. Can only really impair one at-risk seat in WA – Hasluck. NSW, Vic or Qld, could have flipped a lot more close ones to the ALP if his boof head showed up there.
‘WeWantPaul says:
Friday, May 20, 2022 at 5:00 pm
Funny there was a couple of coal loving muppets here yesterday, …’
===========================
There were a couple of posters who seemed to believe that Australia controls the future global temperature and that different parties would generate outcomes in the range of 1.5 degrees to 3 degrees. When they were informed that this is simply not possible – either scientifically or politically – they got busy being condescending, shifting the goal posts, engaging in deflections, verballing and that hardy standby, they got stuck into the personal abuse.
Typical cult behaviours now that I come to think about it.
It is not possible scientifically because Australia emits 1.8% of the world’s CO2. Even if Australia cut all its emissions tomorrow the world will still reach 1.5 by around 2033.
It is not possible politically because the 98% of global emissions are beyond the control of Australia.
Australia’s coal exports, if banned, would be substituted. China, previously our largest coal market, has already done so.
I support Australia reaching zero net by 2050.
Hearing Deakin is getting a late push by Labor tipping some money in – Sukkar closely aligned with the Toxic One…
Simmo – it’s pretty early.
…”Please, everyone just STFU about the damned CPRS. It is ancient history. Abbott’s actions were rank vandalism and required a coup, Greens should, in retrospect, have voted with the government and Rudd should have gone to a DD election when they didn’t.
Everyone fucked up, and everyone should have gotten over it long a go.”
Seconded.
Thirded
Fourthed. The wars that they are fighting were over long ago, or at least they should have been.
Matt31 says:
Friday, May 20, 2022 at 5:19 pm
Bw
Yes, I expect huge issues with the phone voting. However, I would imagine the number will be as high as 200,000 voters. Some I imagine will have applied for and received postal votes. Of course, this should have been planned for, as this situation was entirely foreseeable.’
====================
True. We are not sure of the actual numbers involved. I believe they probably did a bit of a fiddle using known numbers of postal vote applications, known number of positive infections and done some guesses around that.
Roy Morgan didn’t even do a new poll. Just re-released the old figures and said our interviewing this week saw no change, trust us. Even more bullshit than usual!
BTW, why do people keep saying Newspoll could have come out during the afternoon today? They have never done this before AFAIK.
[simm0888 says: Friday, May 20, 2022 at 5:23 pm
If Newspoll was good for the Coalition surely The Australian would have published by now?]
10pm tonight?
David Speers just said “…that will tell whether Labor gets to the 76 it needs for a majority, or a minority”
He didn’t even mention the LNP having a chance of forming govt
Very telling when you think about all the internal party polls he sees?
somethinglikethat
“So Ipsos and now Morgan are both 53-47. ”
How good is democracy?
There has never been a better time to start a franchise for Jim’s Paper Shredding.
sprocket_ says:
Friday, May 20, 2022 at 5:24 pm
Hearing Deakin is getting a late push by Labor tipping some money in – Sukkar closely aligned with the Toxic One…
___________________
I saw Googie Withers (sprocket) with the devil….
Late Riser:
Is it cheating if I wait until Newspoll before giving my seat guesses?
The fact that the greens fan club in here are quite obviously happy we’ve had 15 years of climate policy stalemate tells you all you need to know about the stubbornness on both end of the political spectrum where its their way or the highway.. ultimately, they are not really any better than the Nats.
Back in 2006-2009 we had 100’ of thousands of Australians turning out to rally in support of climate change policies..
Climate change was almost bipartisan with Howard even spruiking it as something that needs to be addressed.
The majority of the country wanted our politicians and political party’s to start doing something to reduce our emissions..
The Rudd Labor party came to power and had a policy that, whilst some wanted more, was a good solid place to start..
And what happened?.. the fringes (the greens with the help of Abbott and the Nats) destroyed it.
What did that do?… it gave oxygen to the CC denialists and allowed them to devise a plan and built massive scare campaigns that terrified the general populace into thinking the economy was going to collapse if action was taken on this “harmless gas that plants need to live”!..
The rest is history.. 15 years of the hard right controlling the narrative, stalling action and stiffleing debate.
All achieved because the greens (the 10 percenters) spat the dummy because they didnt get exactly what they wanted..
Hilarious they try and claim they give more of a fuck about climate change than anyone else.
They have played a massive part in this country being 15 years behind on climate change action.
Noseless freaks the lot of them.. and they’ve lost my vote ever since..
Asha
Of course not. It is wise. Fools rush in. That sort of thing.
https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-air/mike-hosking-breakfast/audio/alan-jones-veteran-australian-broadcaster-says-morrison-is-a-handbrake-and-has-no-hope/
Alan jones is tipping albo
‘Leroy says:
Friday, May 20, 2022 at 5:25 pm
Roy Morgan didn’t even do a new poll. Just re-released the old figures and said our interviewing this week saw no change, trust us. Even more bullshit than usual!
….’
================
It is a strange thing. We don’t know the MOE, for example.
tlu
He has been doing so for weeks.
BW
Having done the phone polling once in 2019, helping my blind mother – and I think I’m a quite knowledgeable on matters voting. Plus I was following my mothers wishes to follow the Liberal HTV which we had in front of us.. and could speak English.
Took 30 minutes.
I wish the AEC well.
The loose unit
“David Speers just said “…that will tell whether Labor gets to the 76 it needs for a majority, or a minority”
He didn’t even mention the LNP having a chance of forming govt
Very telling when you think about all the internal party polls he sees?”
Exactly. The governmetn is goign to change. The question is how big a margin, or if Greens and Teals are needed. I made a comment on this yesterday when people were panicking before the final IPSOS came out.
Morrison only has a two seat majority. There is no sign of him picking up more than maybe 1-2 seats. Whereas Labor can pick up at least 6, and the Teals are in the running for four, and the Greens for two. How can Morrison carve even a minority government out of that?
I am not sure it is a full morgan poll but they say they have been continuing their regular polling and have detected no swing from the previous result. From the sounds of it, they might not have enough to put out a full report.
Newspoll will most likely come in roughly in line with the pollsters. After all, they are surveying the same population, use similar techniques, and there has been little motion in measured opinions over the course of the campaign.
What is a handbrake? Is this another old timey reference?
Seconded.
Thirded
Fourthed
If your new around here then be warned that these Green/labor wars go on day and night endlessly….Nobodies minds are changed….the score after everyday is always 0-0 with no shots on target by either side
It is funny to be getting Dan Illic ads on Youtube against the coalition at same time as he is appearing in the Anthena home loan ads on the TV.
No comment from Morgan on polling period, total respondents, MOE.
Looks like they didn’t even do a poll.
sprocket_ says:
Friday, May 20, 2022 at 5:29 pm
BW
Having done the phone polling once in 2019, helping my blind mother – and I think I’m a quite knowledgeable on matters voting. Plus I was following my mothers wishes to follow the Liberal HTV which we had in front of us.. and could speak English.
Took 30 minutes.
I wish the AEC well.’
==================
Thanks. My workflow guess was actually 20 minutes but I am certain some of the votes will take more than 30min.
This is on top of their other little problem 15,000 out of the 105,000 they had engaged and trained are off with Covid.
Just back from dressing up the booth for the big day tomorrow! Phew! Liberal placards at our booth are promoting how they have done a, b and c, for the electorate over the last 3 years (some of which they haven’t actually), plus their bunting is all ‘It won’t be easy under Albanese” (which is kind of an admission of defeat isn’t it? Hmm, maybe they’re getting in early for the next election? 😉 ) and ‘Strong Economy Stronger Future’ (questionable about whether it’s actually strong or built on a house of cards). The Liberals have also got new types of placards that are triangles that wrap around the parking signs on the street.
Labor, the Unions and Aged Care Nurses have also placed signs up and our bunting is around the No More Morrison message. 🙂
Scotty from Marketing isn’t going out with any grace.. he takes everyone for a fool ( like himself), he blew any chance he might have had by going for a long campaign… in the hope the punters would forget what a shambles his government is.. it’s the VIBE.. I think voters have had more than enough ( tired resignation).. it will be the biggest loss in Australian political history & the end of the Liberal Party.
‘SA Bludger says:
Friday, May 20, 2022 at 5:32 pm
No comment from Morgan on polling period, total respondents, MOE.
They didn’t even do a poll.
…..’
================
A new poll methodology: The Dribbler.
The Silver Bodgie
It’s amazing how sure you are that the Greens are ‘doomed’ to repeat their 2009 opposition to the CPRS given their complete support for Labor’s 2010 version.
Re Morgan ’53/47’…
Very roughly, giving Labor 80% of Greens prefs and 50% of the rest, gets to 53.6 – similar to Morgan’s previous ’53/47′.
In other words, should’ve been headlined ’54/46′ or ‘53.5/46.5’, but I’m just inherently picky…
Another thing, if Morgan’s mid-campaign change of method brings their approach more in line with Newspoll (the numbers certainly are)…maybe a bad weekend for the Coalition.
Another other thing: reporting a 53/47 poll as suggesting a small Labor win – or hung parliament? Seriously? 53/47 would be a smacking!
C@t
Thank you.
I hope potatoe mort loses in Dickson
C@t
Thanks. Good luck tomorrow. Hope you don’t get too much rain!
No time in Queensland from Albanese or Morrison today? Interesting.
C@t:
Did Morrison visit your electorate in the past week or so?
So is the Morgan a new poll or not?
It appears not Confessions.
You might like this story. But a language warning.
My son just told me about a mate of his who voted this arvo.
His mate is big. Played in the front row in rugby. Not blond haired and blue eyed but not dark skinned either.
He was offered a One Nation HTV . The ON worker thought he was on safe ground and was all matey and chuckling.
My sons mate answered..” F…off. I’m black and you’re a pack of c…ts”
The mate has got more degrees than a thermometer, works for NITV and is very active in Aboriginal affairs.
Crickets from ON and all around
Confessions – I think no. They just claim interviewing this week saw no change, but give no new figures and stand by the last one.
Itep
whoosh
(I wasn’t seriously suggesting national treasure Clive Palmer sought an effective FICAC)
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-19/nt-psychic-crocodile/101082524
Speckles the croc chose albo