Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

Newspoll finds the advantage remaining with Labor on the eve of the federal election campaign, albeit by a narrow margin that they’ve been used to this year.

As related in The Australian, the Coalition opens its campaign for the May 21 election with its least bad Newspoll headline since December, with Labor’s two-party lead at 53-47, in from 54-46 at the last poll a week ago and 55-45 at the previous poll a fortnight earlier. The primary votes are Labor 37% (down one), Coalition 36% (steady), Greens 10% (steady), United Australia Party 4% (up one) and One Nation 3% (steady).

Scott Morrison’s personal ratings are unchanged at 42% approval and 54% disapproval, but his lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 43-42 to 44-39. Albanese is down one on approval to 42% and up one on disapproval to 45%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1506.

Note also the post immediately below from Adrian Beaumont on the French presidential election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,035 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Jaeger

    Sensible people will be sick of the gotcha questions but I’ll wager we’ll have a lot more of them.
    The liberal media cheersquad will smell blood and will be working overnight on some trivia to try and trap Albanese tomorrow.
    It’s kindergarten stuff and a sad reflection of the standard of political debate and reporting in Australia.
    I despair at times.

  2. Lars:

    What’s happened to briefly? Has he been kidnapped by the LRP?

    Unfortunately briefly encountered the Flying Purple People Eater; he is fighting strongly, but it’s touch and go. Please pray (or otherwise) for briefly

    (it’s a joke – hopefully briefly is just taking some time far from the madding crowd)

  3. The only thing worse than people overplaying the Albo gaffe is people who think they’re too cool for school by saying no worries.

  4. Oakeshott Country at 1.25pm re ‘In the name of God, go’ (which quote you correctly observe I didn’t use)…

    Yes, it was used by a butcher in the context of a coup, but, hey – Parliament won!

    Actually, Cromwell won – almost absolute power.

    Still, nothing like a jolly good white-washing of history, what?

    Mind you, 17th monarchy wasn’t close to lily-white: when Charles II was restored, he had his henchmen track down those involved in executing his father and had them executed. Those who weren’t nobles were hung, drawn and quartered.

    Not even the Coalition will reintroduce such measures!

  5. Is this a own goal by the Lib/nats propaganda media unit

    ‘So what?’ Anthony Albanese finds unlikely ally in John Howard after blunder

    How can Morrison and his cronies have Howard on the campaign , claiming Labor/Albanese cannot be trusted on economy

    When Howard as prime minister didn’t know the interest rates, and today doesnt know the unemployment rate

  6. Confessions….As I pointed out earlier, the “mistake” Albo made was also made by the journo asking the question.
    Have a look at ABC on-line and while Albo “Didn’t know the answer” he didn’t know the answer to the wrong question asked by the Murdoch journo….
    As the ABC pointed puts it…………”They were both wrong”….Albo through not having an answer on board, and the journo stuffing up the technically correct question….
    And, as the ABC item goes on to say……..”Does it really matter?” and the answer in the item suggests… “No, not really…” Adding, gotcha questions only have a short shelf life……..
    Labor’s opponents, and some of their false friends here, have been a mixture of glee and censorious all day on this item…..

  7. The Morrison Government is buying and sending Whitehaven Coal to Ukraine. It’s Chaired by one Honourable Mark Vaile

  8. Ok, I just watched news for the first time today.
    The Albo gaffe reporting is devastating.
    The way it’s been reported is devastating.
    The fact that the killers have released an ad rubbishing Albanese’s gaffe is devastating.
    The ABC news coverage of the incident is devastating.
    It’s much worse than I imagined it could be.

    I can’t fucking believe it.
    .
    .
    .
    .
    .
    .
    .But then in a some way, I can.

  9. Perhaps the esteemed journalistic crowd could ask Morrison if he intends establishing a federal ICAC if re-elected !
    Does Morrison still get to say what is investigated by the ICAC ?

  10. Rossmg….Essentially what I have saying for the last little while…..I can’t believe the false gravitas some are piling on here on this one interaction this morning…..

  11. mundo

    The lib/nats propaganda media has just won Labor the election

    Bringing in John Howard who didn’t know the interest rates as prime minister and didn’t know the unemployment rate today

    How can the public now trust Morrison and the lib/nats to manage the economy

  12. The Coalition has dodged questions about a $500,000 payout made to Alan Tudge’s former staffer Rachelle Miller, with senior ministers and the finance department refusing to comment amid controversy over the education minister’s ongoing role in federal cabinet.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/apr/11/government-wont-comment-on-500000-payout-to-rachelle-miller

    And nobody in the govt knows about this. Who is paying this half million dollar payout? I assume it’s we the taxpayers, in which case the govt should be answering questions about what it’s for instead of running away from scrutiny.

  13. Oh, for goodness sake Mondo, go and put your feet in a bucket of cold water………or maybe your brain……What do you make of the Russian attack on Ukraine……….? “Devastating” but kind of more so?

  14. Kate @ #606 Monday, April 11th, 2022 – 7:06 pm

    Mundo is such a valuable poster perhaps Mr Bowe could consider giving him a thread of his own ….

    What planet are you living on?
    Have you ever followed a federal election campaign in this country before?
    Do you not understand what today means to Labor’s chances?
    Do you know what the coalition is capable of?
    Do you know the coalition has ALREADY RELEASED AN AD FEATURING ALBO’S BLUNDER today?
    FORTY
    DAYS
    TO
    GO.
    Good luck petal.
    Talk about dejavu.
    F
    M
    D.

  15. Asha says:
    Monday, April 11, 2022 at 7:13 pm
    The lib/nats propaganda media has just won Labor the election
    I don’t even….

    ———————–

    Sounds silly doesnt it

    Same as people thinking what Albanese said today, is going to be the reason in deciding the election

  16. Tricot @ #618 Monday, April 11th, 2022 – 7:13 pm

    Oh, for goodness sake Mondo, go and put your feet in a bucket of cold water………or maybe your brain……What do you make of the Russian attack on Ukraine……….? “Devastating” but kind of more so?

    What has Ukraine got to do with the Australian federal election campaign?

  17. Geez Mundo, five weeks of your shit as above and I’ll end up necking myself.

    You are just REALLY bad news mate.

    Get your own blog, and take Briefly with you. You can self-flagellate all you like then.

  18. My name is corruption and I’m the Morrison Liberal Government attempting to be re-elected with the help of deception from the Fourth estate.

  19. Tricot:

    It was a mistake by Albanese not to be prepared for these questions. At the end of the day it probably won’t matter, but it signals what the coalition are punting on: that the sustained scrutiny of an election campaign will wind back Labor’s polling lead, and possibly unravel Albanese and Labor.

  20. Scott @ #613 Monday, April 11th, 2022 – 7:11 pm

    mundo

    The lib/nats propaganda media has just won Labor the election

    Bringing in John Howard who didn’t know the interest rates prime minister and didn’t know the unemployment rate today

    ‘Bringing in John Howard who didn’t know the interest rates prime minister and didn’t know the unemployment rate today’ Mr Albanese said.

    Now that works better.

  21. Confessions

    Close to majority of the public themselves do not believe the unemployment figures or even ever thought about what is the cashrate today

  22. south @ #872 Monday, April 11th, 2022 – 7:12 pm

    Confessions ,
    It’s the real reason the election was called, so they didn’t have to do estimates this week.

    Sounds like exactly the sort of thing Morrison would do.

    And now we’ll never know what really happened to the woman. Morrison’s do-nothing ‘inquiry’ into the matter that cleared Tudge means Miller gets no justice, no apology for what happened to her, but gets a lump sum payout for unknown reasons.

  23. I was reading the results of a vox pop earlier today in the seat of Gilmore, the respondents evenly divided. What struck me was that none of them seemed particularly concerned with the reasons why this sham of a government should be turfed – graft & corruption.

    On the question of Albanese’s failure to recall two important indicia,
    it’s highly doubtful that it’ll have an effect on the election outcome
    after he took sole responsibility for them. I think the election will start proper in the week commencing April, 24.

  24. The Liberals were so proud of this ABC breakfast interview they put it on their website.

    ROWLAND: You’re campaigning alongside the liberal candidate in the seat of Gilmore there in the south coast, Andrew Constance. As our viewers would recall, he had some pretty bracing words for you at the height of Black Summer regarding your you being shunned by those locals in Cobargo, a town particularly hard hit and Andrew Constance’s “You got the welcome you deserve”. Emotions still run fairly deep in that electorate about the bushfires. Are you worried about that’s repeating itself today?

    PRIME MINISTER: Well, I think as you can see with Andrew Constance being part of my team and choosing to be part of my team, I think that addresses that issue very well. I mean, Andrew and I, I spoke not long after those terrible experiences that particularly he and others, so many went through and we worked the issue. We ensured we addressed things like small business payments and we got the money on the ground and supported people in the areas that the federal government were responsible for.

    ROWLAND: Local business owner Vicki Pamount-Reid is in Mogo in Gilmore. She’s quoted in The Guardian today about you. This is a quote “he could have stayed here instead of going away when the bushfires were on. That was a dire emergency”[. What do you say to voters in Gilmore like Vicki?

    PRIME MINISTER: Well, we’ve said many times, Jenny and I, that when we went took a week’s leave after what had been a very harrowing year that, we could change that decision. We would. That was two and a half years ago. And ever since that time, as we returned, we’ve applied ourselves. I’ve applied myself every single day and we’ve seen that during the pandemic. As we’ve come through the pandemic, we’ve saved tens of thousands of lives…waffle, waffle, waffle for another five minutes unrelated at all to the question.

    https://www.liberal.org.au/latest-news/2022/04/11/prime-minister-transcript-interview-michael-rowland-abc-news-breakfast

    They just don’t get it , do they ? Id say they have buckley’s chance of regaining Gilmore now and they could lose Page over the flood response debacle too.

  25. Bushfire Bill @ #623 Monday, April 11th, 2022 – 7:15 pm

    Geez Mundo, five weeks of your shit as above and I’ll end up necking myself.

    You are just REALLY bad news mate.

    Get your own blog, and take Briefly with you. You can self-flagellate all you like then.

    Don’t fret. I’ll take a week off. I don’t think I can take the pressure.
    This time next week we’ll see where things are.
    Hopefully Albo with have Scotty on the ropes.
    Lurking for a week.
    Promise.

  26. Ulhmann mentioned that in Gilmore people were wearing hawaiian shirts as a reminder to Morrison taking off during the bushfires.
    He said that the people have not forgotten.
    And Ulhmann thinks its very hard for Morrison to win from here.

  27. If you go into a bank or any other financial institution and ask the person at the counter ,

    Top of your head can you tell the cashrate , not many would give the same answer, they would likely be different

  28. Victoria:

    Constance did SFA as a cabinet minister in NSW when he represented that electorate. It beats me why people would think he’ll be able to fix things as a backbencher in federal parliament. He’ll be even less effective as an opposition backbencher!

  29. Someone should be making a note of the questions that the PM and Ministers are dodging. This information should be given some prominence. If a question isn’t answered the Minister is hiding something and hoping that no one will notice. We should be free to draw whatever conclusions regarding what the answer would have been.

  30. Don’t fret. I’ll take a week off. I don’t think I can take the pressure.

    Take a year off, to compensate us all for the fucking bellyaching from you since 2019.

  31. I often think that nobody* watches the evening news.

    It’s clear that some do, but when confronted with a trick question, most would think ‘Well I wasn’t good at maths or remembering things like that’.

    If you are ‘in the Beltway’ however, this is a critical error from which there is no recovery, or alternatively, a wake up call to improve the memorisation of stats required to avoid the gotchas.

    * nobody amongst any of my 30 and 20 something kids, or their friends has ever read a newspaper, nor watched free to air TV.

  32. Victoria:

    Monday, April 11, 2022 at 7:23 pm

    [‘Ulhmann mentioned that in Gilmore people were wearing hawaiian shirts as a reminder to Morrison taking off during the bushfires.’]

    It was a rather amateurish demo; they weren’t even in tune, looking like old hippies after a day on the stuff.

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