Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

Newspoll finds the advantage remaining with Labor on the eve of the federal election campaign, albeit by a narrow margin that they’ve been used to this year.

As related in The Australian, the Coalition opens its campaign for the May 21 election with its least bad Newspoll headline since December, with Labor’s two-party lead at 53-47, in from 54-46 at the last poll a week ago and 55-45 at the previous poll a fortnight earlier. The primary votes are Labor 37% (down one), Coalition 36% (steady), Greens 10% (steady), United Australia Party 4% (up one) and One Nation 3% (steady).

Scott Morrison’s personal ratings are unchanged at 42% approval and 54% disapproval, but his lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 43-42 to 44-39. Albanese is down one on approval to 42% and up one on disapproval to 45%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1506.

Note also the post immediately below from Adrian Beaumont on the French presidential election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,035 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  11. The tightening begins.

    Never good to see Clive’s nutters go up.

    We need to vote for the Greens to kick the Liberals out and keep the far right UAP and PHON at bay! We know the Greens will always stand up against the far right’s destructive agenda.

  12. Hey, serious question. Why does everyone collectively assume that the poll isn’t being pushed to drive narrative?
    Why would most people not read the Australian, but take Newspoll seriously?

  14. A tad unnerving to see the ALP primary vote drop by 4 points in 3 weeks. Also I think 4 percent is the highest UAP vote so far in Newspoll.

    I don’t think it’s a bad strategy to lead off with positive Albo ads. But I wait impatiently for the attack ads to remind the punters of Morrison’s incompetance.

  17. Firefox says:
    Sunday, April 10, 2022 at 9:49 pm
    The tightening begins.

    Never good to see Clive’s nutters go up.

    We need to vote for the Greens to kick the Liberals out and keep the far right UAP and PHON at bay!

    The Greens are their facilitators….sweep their driveways, mow their lawns and tend to their pot plants. Help with signs and traffic control, with amusements. Always willing attendants to the electoral needs of the reactionaries.

  18. pretty solid UAP support in strong Labor seats, bringing down the Labor 1st preference but holding up in the 2pp vote. imo.

  20. @south – Because many of us remember the regular “about time for Murdoch to pump out x, y, z” posts during the Newspolls of the Gillard era.

    There’s no commercial imperative for pollsters to fudge numbers. We all remember what happened to Morgan in Bulletin.

  23. ALP at 53% 2PP is still a problem for Scomo, not Albo.
    More Newspolls will be needed in order to see the trend inside the campaign.

  24. The UAP were the first outfit in my area with posters up on poles and they were very professionally put up as well with a kind of 3-sided effect so they could be seen from all angles.

  25. ”Shows that the election will be closer than we thought.”

    Not closer than I thought. I never believed Labor was on 55 or 56. Labor hasn’t achieved that since WW2. The polls always narrow. Predicted landslides become comfortable wins (1983, 2007), comfortable wins become near misses (2010) and narrow wins become narrow losses (2019). Labor has to deal a barrage of smears, half-truths, disinformation and outright lies from the Government and its media allies (i,e, most of the mainstream media) over the coming 6 weeks while trying to get its message across. I just hope that this time they’re prepared.

  28. Have already seen a Labor attack ad authorised by the ALP Perth bringing up his escape to Hawaii and showing various grabs of him saying “it’s not my job”. No Liberal ads so far which is odd (other than the politicised Aus Govt ones we’ve seen for months).

  29. Labor’s primary vote is down 4 points in three Newspoll surveys.

    Perhaps Australia Brutopia will return the government it deserves.

    Beam me up Scotty. No intelligent life here …

  30. Firefox: “We need to vote for the Greens to kick the Liberals out”

    If you want to kick the Liberals out make sure to put them last in your ballot paper. You are going to do that Firefox, are you?

  34. The margin of error for a sample size of 1506 is about 2.6%, so the 1% from last week could be statistical noise. Even the 2% drop from a fortnight ago. The trend is our friend, or not. We’ll have to see how the other polls (and the next Newspoll) shift. If they’re all in the sane direction, it’s a worry.

  35. @Steve777… agreed, basically, data is data. It doesn’t mean anything until we get more to see if it’s trend.

    Some already seem to be losing their nerve because we’re not going to get it all our own way… not even on the first day.

  38. ”
    Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
    Sunday, April 10, 2022 at 10:02 pm
    Labor’s primary vote is down 4 points in three Newspoll surveys.

    Perhaps Australia Brutopia will return the government it deserves.

    Beam me up Scotty. No intelligent life here …
    ”

    Looks like it.

  42. Historic Election says:
    Sunday, April 10, 2022 at 10:18 pm

    Of course this election was never in the bag for Labor. Don’t listen to anyone who says otherwise
    ___________
    What are you talking about? The Not-a-Lib plurality is at 65 basis points.

  49. “If you want to kick the Liberals out make sure to put them last in your ballot paper. You are going to do that Firefox, are you?”

    ***

    Well, since the Libs don’t run in my seat, no.

    I will certainly be putting the Nats last instead though.

    The Greens are the only party that can be counted on to stand up against the Coalition and their destructive agenda in the parliament.

    A vote for the Greens is the strongest possible way to vote against the Coalition.

  50. About what i expected and wouldn’t be surprised if Newspoll went further up the pendulum than usual to try picking up the teal support.

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