Newspoll: 56-44

After 30 seconds of joy for Coalition supporters, Newspoll comes along a day early to rain on the parade. It shows no change whatsoever from a fortnight ago: Labor ahead 56-44 on two-party preferred, with a primary vote of 48 per cent to the Coalition’s 39 per cent. A small amount of solace might be taken from a 3 per cent increase in the Prime Minister’s remarkably resilient approval rating, now up to 47 per cent, and a rise in dissatisfaction with Kevin Rudd from 20 per cent to 24 per cent. However, both Howard and Rudd are up 1 per cent on preferred prime minister, with Kevin Rudd leading 48 per cent to 39 per cent.

Plaudits to James J for somehow finding the graphic before The Australian put its coverage online.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

477 comments on “Newspoll: 56-44”

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  1. Just judge the substance in their answers on the 7.30 Report.

    Howard as I said before, the highest taxing government in Australias history, in the midst of a huge resources boom. Decreases real spending across the board especially in education and health. HIS PLAN…tax cuts to bribe people into voting for him.

    We need to get rid of this old opportunistic government with no plan for the nation beyond this election.

    We sure do need the right leadership. New leadership.

  2. Frank

    “Labor immediately hit back, saying the government’s Australian Technical Colleges could not address the shortage of 200,000 skilled workers over the next five years.”

    Howard and co’s plan for the skill shortage is to bring in more 457 visa workers.

    Cheaper than investing in training in Australia.

    Savings made on not investing in education can be offered as tax cuts.

    And 457 visa workers drag wages for everyone down, increasing profits.

  3. Howard lost his cool on 7.30 tonight.

    When Kerry said, “We look forward to having you back during the campaign,”

    Howard just grunted,

    “I’m sure”

    He really did look like a used car salesman who thought he was losing the mug. He spruiked, he flustered, he oversold. He was just about tripping over his own words.

    As I’ve predicted many times: far too much to say and too little time to say it in.

    Kevin, on the other hand, was calm, cool, smiling and totally non-wedged. He said the budget figures came out publicly only today, but Costello has had them – in part or in whole – for months. Labor will be carefully considering them before they respond etc. etc. Perfect. OK, so there was a partial rehash of today’s talking points (front bench includes an “out of work diplomat”, a “rock star” and so on) but really, it was a good performance. Calm, confident, measured.

    Rudd even noted that Howard described him in his (Rudd’s) preferred terms: “a fiscal conservative”.

    Thanks, Johnny. You knew as soon as you said it that you’d blown it.

    And it showed.

    I really don’t think lefties here should worry too much about the new tax package. As Rudd pointed out, if it was so wonderful why didn’t they announce it at Budget time?

    Besides, Howard starts behind the 8-ball in the “trust” stakes.

    I’d score today a win for Labor.

  4. rudd’s budget reply to costello’s last budget surprised people and the liberal’s , the grumpy look’s on the liberal faces was priceless that night
    i think labors tax policy will have the same response

  5. If Labor was not expecting John Howard’s tax cuts, its leaders don’t know much about politics.

    DLP (120 and 172),

    Oh, the irony of your name and my response to it! A number of expelled Victorian MPs had never even met Bob Santamaria. Of course, a lot of NSW Labor people had sympathy for the DLP. After all, they were basically the same sort of people. But once the Left saw what a disaster intervention had been in Victoria, they backed off in NSW, accepted a few sacrificial lambs (Jack Kane and Frank Rooney) and left the Groupers in charge. The 1955 federal conference was rigged because the federal executive decided to let the illegal Victorian delegation vote on a motion to exclude the legal delegation, which was denied a vote. The executive did this because the majority of legal delegate to the Conference would have overturned intervention.

    The split did not give us a “better balanced Labor party(sic)”. It gave control to the far left in Victoria and led to Labor being in the wilderness here for 27 years, requiring further intervention in 1970 and the re-affiliation of the DLP unions in 1985 or 1986 to help produce the modern natural party of government that Labor now is.

    Gippslander (138),

    There were personal animosities involved too. The best account is Robert Murray’s The Split, though Brian Costar et al’s The Great Labor Schism is also useful.

    Adam (156),

    The Age has reported that the DLP will be contesting Senate seats in every state – a remarkable turn of events – and some lower house ones. I expect DLP preferences will help the ALP in McMillan and elsewhere.

    Scorpio (165),

    I have finally worked out whence The Australian has got its “17 seats”. It is counting Harry Quick’s seat as held by an independent – trickery, of course!

  6. Bushfire Bill,

    “Perception is everything.” I thought John Howard came across better than Kevin Rudd on The 7.30 Report. Kerry O’Brien gave him a much harder time, but I thought he handled it well. Kevin Rudd was given an easy ride and was pretty boring for most of his answers. I wish he’d stop responding as if he were giving a tutorial presentation and just “cut to the chase”.

  7. I think both Rudd and Howard are poor media performers. Howard is just a horrible man, Rudd comes across as if he’s reading from a script every time he talks. It’s not natural and he sounds smug. The most common comment I hear about Rudd is that he’s too smug, this could hurt Labor in a 6 week campaign. 6 weeks of Kevin Rudd on the tv every night may get too much for some people.

  8. Chris, well the DLP better hurry or I will have no room left at my website for them. I am being bombarded with candidates now, including a year 12 student who is running as a Democrat in Bendigo – talk about pitching for the yoof vote. The Christian Democrats have announced a whole raft of candidates too, plus we have these new Liberty and Democracy people and the Climate Change Coalition. And I dare say the Commos will wheel out a veteran or two, just for old times’ sake Chris.

  9. Adam,

    The Age could be wrong. It wouldn’t be the first time. A year 12 student! At least I waited until I was at university.

  10. Adam,

    I thught the communists voted Liberal now. Communist China has the same anti-union, pro-CWA IR laws as the Howard Government. When I asked one former La Trobe Maoist about his politics 18 years later, he said something about a mortgage.

  11. He he, reminds me in a tangential way of the International Socialists who were going to vote for Howard in ’96 so as to hasten the revolution.

  12. What’s the betting that Morgan will conduct a poll over the next couple of days to test the response to the big announcement by Howard and Costello today?

  13. Oh my, some of those CEC candidates look seriously scary, in an “I will eat your flesh” kind of way. And yes, many are sporting a beard. The whole party just creeps me out and I’m not sure why.

  14. Observed, 453 Bushfire Bill

    Most ungracious. I thought Kevin avoided without heavy handedness Kerry’s good try to have him show any of the cards, though Kevin chucked out the odd dot point (university funding, climate change)

    Kevin this time said ‘under employed’ diplomat.

  15. One of the CEC candidate statements

    “He is the father of three children and five grandchildren.”

    I think they could have phrased it better, especially in light of recent events.

  16. #428 Shows on

    I can’t remember his name, but I think Rudd’s media minder is that Canadian bloke who used to work for Bob Carr. Absolutely ruthless and comes down very hard on dissenting stories (eg the dispute about Rudd’s childhood from SMH reporters). He is, of course, absolutely media-savvy.

    Chris Curtis. On the split and the recent passing of the great Kim Beazley senior:

    He had a great quote about the Victorian Left (which along with FE (‘Joe’) Chamberlain) controlled the ALP Federal Executive in the 60s.

    “It has the Midas Touch for failure, to the point of sheer genius.”

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