The Courier-Mail has published a Galaxy poll of the Queensland marginals Bonner, Moreton, Longman and Herbert, which shows a collective Labor lead of just 51-49. Based on results in these seats in 2004, Adam Carr calculates a swing to Labor of 5.1 per cent enough to reel in Bonner (0.5 per cent) and Moreton (2.8 per cent), but not Longman (6.7 per cent) or Herbert (6.2 per cent). Also just outside the range is Blair (5.7 per cent). The Courier-Mail refers to a 5.6 per cent swing in Bonner, but no seat-by-seat breakdown appears to be available online. This is the most encouraging poll to appear for the government since June, when Galaxy showed a Labor lead of 53-47 result nationally and Westpoll had the Liberals on track to gain a seat in Western Australia. The poll was conducted over the weekend, from a combined sample of 800, so it’s conceivable that Labor’s political difficulties of last week might have been a factor.
In other news, this blog will be moving to new premises reasonably shortly, which partly explains why my reaction to the election announcement has been less dynamic than it might have been.