Within the limited ambit of this website, news to relate relevant to the federal election that will be held eventually:
• The Age/Herald yesterday provided results of Newspoll-style quarterly breakdowns of state voting intention compiled from its three monthly Resolve Strategic federal polls so far this year. While the pollster publishes breakdowns for the three biggest states with each monthly poll, these latest numbers offer new insights for Western Australia and South Australia. The results in the former case are Labor 43% (29.8% at the 2019 election), Coalition 33% (45.2%), Greens 9% (11.6%), One Nation 5% (5.3%) and United Australia Party 2% (2.0%). This suggests a two-party swing of around 12%, which if uniform would net Labor not only the three seats generally thought to be plausible for them (Swan on 3.2%, Pearce on 5.2% and Hasluck on 5.9%) but potentially Tangney on 9.5% and Canning and Moore on 11.6% each. The results in South Australia were Labor 40% (35.4% in 2019), Liberal 34% (40.8%), Greens 7% (9.6%) and United Australia Party 3% (4.3%), suggesting a swing which if uniform would net Boothby on 1.4% but not Sturt on 6.9%. However, the respective sample sizes would have been around 450 and 360, with margins of error of around 4.5% and 5%.
• The Advertiser reports a poll of 800 South Australian respondents conducted in late February found 49.5% were less likely to vote Liberal at the state election based on the fact that both Steven Marshall and Scott Morrison were Liberals. However, “the firm that commissioned the poll supplied it to The Advertiser without naming the pollster or client for whom it was conducted”.
• A new entrant to the election forecasting market, Buckleys and None, rates Labor a 71.0% chance to form a majority government with the Coalition on 17.3%, the balance representing a hung parliament.
• The timetable for the election runs as follows:
Issue of writ: Monday, April 11.
Rolls close: Monday, April 18.
Nominations close: Thursday, April 21.
Ballot draw: Friday, April 22.
Early voting commences: Monday, May 9.
Postal applications close: Wednesday, May 18.
Election day: Saturday, May 21.
Last day for receipt of declaration votes: Friday, June 3.
Return of writs: Thursday, July 28.
• Jeremy Rockliff and Michael Ferguson were sworn in as the new Premier and Deputy Premier of Tasmania on Friday. Both were unopposed, with Elise Archer ultimately declining to nominate against factional conservative colleague Ferguson after failing to win support.