Federal election minus 39 days

Some state-level polling detail to kick off the campaign coverage, plus a few other bits and pieces.

Within the limited ambit of this website, news to relate relevant to the federal election that will be held eventually:

• The Age/Herald yesterday provided results of Newspoll-style quarterly breakdowns of state voting intention compiled from its three monthly Resolve Strategic federal polls so far this year. While the pollster publishes breakdowns for the three biggest states with each monthly poll, these latest numbers offer new insights for Western Australia and South Australia. The results in the former case are Labor 43% (29.8% at the 2019 election), Coalition 33% (45.2%), Greens 9% (11.6%), One Nation 5% (5.3%) and United Australia Party 2% (2.0%). This suggests a two-party swing of around 12%, which if uniform would net Labor not only the three seats generally thought to be plausible for them (Swan on 3.2%, Pearce on 5.2% and Hasluck on 5.9%) but potentially Tangney on 9.5% and Canning and Moore on 11.6% each. The results in South Australia were Labor 40% (35.4% in 2019), Liberal 34% (40.8%), Greens 7% (9.6%) and United Australia Party 3% (4.3%), suggesting a swing which if uniform would net Boothby on 1.4% but not Sturt on 6.9%. However, the respective sample sizes would have been around 450 and 360, with margins of error of around 4.5% and 5%.

• The Advertiser reports a poll of 800 South Australian respondents conducted in late February found 49.5% were less likely to vote Liberal at the state election based on the fact that both Steven Marshall and Scott Morrison were Liberals. However, “the firm that commissioned the poll supplied it to The Advertiser without naming the pollster or client for whom it was conducted”.

• A new entrant to the election forecasting market, Buckleys and None, rates Labor a 71.0% chance to form a majority government with the Coalition on 17.3%, the balance representing a hung parliament.

• The timetable for the election runs as follows:

Issue of writ: Monday, April 11.
Rolls close: Monday, April 18.
Nominations close: Thursday, April 21.
Ballot draw: Friday, April 22.
Early voting commences: Monday, May 9.
Postal applications close: Wednesday, May 18.
Election day: Saturday, May 21.
Last day for receipt of declaration votes: Friday, June 3.
Return of writs: Thursday, July 28.

• Jeremy Rockliff and Michael Ferguson were sworn in as the new Premier and Deputy Premier of Tasmania on Friday. Both were unopposed, with Elise Archer ultimately declining to nominate against factional conservative colleague Ferguson after failing to win support.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

971 comments on “Federal election minus 39 days”

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  3. As a long since deserter from subscribing to 9 Entertainment and their print media, I have today received an offer of 3 months subscription for $1-

    Funny about that

    So are they desperate for subscribers at any cost?

    Or are they trying to influence and are foregoing revenue to do so?

    I understand Murdoch are giving their papers away as well

    Hopefully it is proof of the disdain society has for our main stream media

    Remember that both Fairfax and 9 collapsed to the Phoenix 9 Entertainment

    Murdoch pays no tax due to asset valuation write downs

    And a creditor took ownership of 10

    Stokes is Stokes with 7

  4. I will say, from what I’m seeing Labor is actually running a semi-proper postal vote campaign…

    It’s nice to get a pleasant surprise in the time of love and pearl clutching.

  5. Asha says:
    Tuesday, April 12, 2022 at 11:32 pm
    Up north:

    Interested. I expected Christensen to do something like this a while back and was surprised that he seemed to be following through on his retirement.

    How would you rate his chances?

    It may be interesting. Mirani is the only seat in the QLD Parliament that One Nation holds and they of course held Burdekin in 1998 (both in Dawson).

    Can’t see him getting enough, if indeed he is the candidate. But he will place a creditable third. Labor might lead the count Primary wise.

    I reckon he will peel a heap of votes off the Tories. One has to hope enough of them don’t flow back that Labor pull off an upset.

    I hope the current One Nation steps aside and he runs. Dawson might be one to watch.

    Will talk to aged Upnorth parents tomorrow who live in the middle of Toryland and get them to stir the pot.

    Would be good to see Dawson come home to Mother Labor. It’s named after Anderson Dawson who formed the first Labor Government in the World!

    Another Queensland first.

  8. The journos who are still hyperventilating today about Albo’s mental blank yesterday think that should weigh up at least equally against the prospect of three more years of shameless lying, wage repression, public health sector stress, aged care neglect, disability cruelty and climate vandalism. What are they smoking?

  9. NSW Liberals
    Ms Credlin said one of these consequences was “laid bare” today with Nine newspapers revealing a “record” number of 325 members have resigned this year.

    “Worse still, the usual uptick in members heading into a federal campaign hasn’t materialised – they’re more than 1,000 members short from where they were this time around 2019, and insiders fear come renewal time, more supporters will drop off,” she said.

    “These are the people that man the booths and hand out the how-to-vote cards – they’re the life and soul of the party.

    “Let me tell you – their anger is white hot.

  10. Having rewatched that video Scomo to my ear seems to say “this is a media event…this is a secret drinks for the media event” before he turns away. Very weird.

  11. Ashasays:
    Tuesday, April 12, 2022 at 11:35 pm
    The (paywalled) Australian article:

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/election-2022-rogue-lnp-mp-george-christensen-to-run-for-one-nation/news-story/93d9fa167f1b40a1ebce334df6d90148

    The article says they have not decided where Georgy boy will run. If he goes with his current seat ON will have to dump the woman who is already slated as the ON candidate in his electorate. Pauline Handjobs should have no qualms about shunting a woman to get Georgy boy up and running there. Could be one to watch for a giggle on election night.

  12. Blackburnpseph says:
    Wednesday, April 13, 2022 at 12:21 am
    Is there a financial advantage for a sitting MP to lose their seat rather than just retire?
    ……..
    The scheme may have since changed but MP’s super entitlements used to be greater if an MP (serving less than 20(?) years) was defeated at an election or preselection, rather than simply walking away.

  13. Can’t trust Morrison ✔️

    Can’t trust the media ✔️

    Can’t trust the AFP ✔️

    Can’t trust the Liberal Party ✔️

    And Barnaby will be screaming !

    And can anyone remember the cash rate ?

    Is Morrison going to shout everyone ?

    If anyone didn’t know Morrison …. ?

  14. Mike Carlton might well be right that Albo will also shout drinks for the media pack following him (he would know better than I) but I don’t like that either if so. This shouldn’t be part of the game, especially at election time.

    Unfortunately the press gallery in Australia have no ethics. They are overjoyed to take advantage of the sadly inevitable rabid nutters on Twitter to say “look at this abuse I get” but you will never see them admit they got anything wrong or engage with genuine criticism from people not shouting abuse. Happy to accept private freebies from politicians in an era where pretty much any significant company has a probity policy barring you from accepting so much as a free jellybean from a supplier. Happy to moan about the degree of policy information they are given but the first to immediately look for the destructive not the positive in any policy (especially but not exclusively when it is Labor policy, ripping down policy in general is their stock in trade, the main reason why nothing gets done and doing anything becomes unpopular).

  18. C@t,

    According to Douglas and Milko, the Police were there probably in numbers too as it’s their chosen watering hole and an area where a lot of the top brass live. And, as the son of a copper, Scott is one of them.

    I had forgotten the close relationship Morrison has to the Police Brass

    But this little snippet “The man then walks out of the function, closely followed by a man claiming to be a police officer” sounds like an off-duty police officer, part of the festivities, seeing the young guy off the premises.

  19. I shared the fury of others at Morrison’s Penrith press party/bribe.

    I went to the ABC contact page and made a ‘Request’ for ‘Information’ about a ‘Political Event’…

    https://help.abc.net.au/hc/en-us/requests/new?ticket_form_id=360000036795

    I then submitted the following text…

    “Yesterday (12th April) the Prime Minister hosted a private function attended by a significant number of journalists. Did any ABC journalists attend? If so, please email me a list of their names.”

    If you’re angry/concerned about this corrupt party, maybe do something similar…

    I’m going to investigate how to send a similar request to commercial media organisations. If anyone has know-how on that, I’d appreciate a leg-up…

  21. I think Central and Northern Queensland could provide some big surprises on election night there tends to be big swings in these areas

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