Federal election minus 39 days

Some state-level polling detail to kick off the campaign coverage, plus a few other bits and pieces.

Within the limited ambit of this website, news to relate relevant to the federal election that will be held eventually:

• The Age/Herald yesterday provided results of Newspoll-style quarterly breakdowns of state voting intention compiled from its three monthly Resolve Strategic federal polls so far this year. While the pollster publishes breakdowns for the three biggest states with each monthly poll, these latest numbers offer new insights for Western Australia and South Australia. The results in the former case are Labor 43% (29.8% at the 2019 election), Coalition 33% (45.2%), Greens 9% (11.6%), One Nation 5% (5.3%) and United Australia Party 2% (2.0%). This suggests a two-party swing of around 12%, which if uniform would net Labor not only the three seats generally thought to be plausible for them (Swan on 3.2%, Pearce on 5.2% and Hasluck on 5.9%) but potentially Tangney on 9.5% and Canning and Moore on 11.6% each. The results in South Australia were Labor 40% (35.4% in 2019), Liberal 34% (40.8%), Greens 7% (9.6%) and United Australia Party 3% (4.3%), suggesting a swing which if uniform would net Boothby on 1.4% but not Sturt on 6.9%. However, the respective sample sizes would have been around 450 and 360, with margins of error of around 4.5% and 5%.

The Advertiser reports a poll of 800 South Australian respondents conducted in late February found 49.5% were less likely to vote Liberal at the state election based on the fact that both Steven Marshall and Scott Morrison were Liberals. However, “the firm that commissioned the poll supplied it to The Advertiser without naming the pollster or client for whom it was conducted”.

• A new entrant to the election forecasting market, Buckleys and None, rates Labor a 71.0% chance to form a majority government with the Coalition on 17.3%, the balance representing a hung parliament.

• The timetable for the election runs as follows:

Issue of writ: Monday, April 11.
Rolls close: Monday, April 18.
Nominations close: Thursday, April 21.
Ballot draw: Friday, April 22.
Early voting commences: Monday, May 9.
Postal applications close: Wednesday, May 18.
Election day: Saturday, May 21.
Last day for receipt of declaration votes: Friday, June 3.
Return of writs: Thursday, July 28.

• Jeremy Rockliff and Michael Ferguson were sworn in as the new Premier and Deputy Premier of Tasmania on Friday. Both were unopposed, with Elise Archer ultimately declining to nominate against factional conservative colleague Ferguson after failing to win support.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

971 comments on “Federal election minus 39 days”

Comments Page 1 of 20
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  1. The internal war within the NSW division of the Liberals over preselections has led to a mass exodus of members, with more deserting the troubled party this year than the previous two years combined.

    Membership figures were presented to the party’s state executive meeting on Friday night, showing hundreds of members have resigned this financial year, which still has several months to go.

    This year 325 members have quit, while just 102 members resigned in 2020 and 160 in 2019, according to a slide presented to state executive members and seen by The Sydney Morning Herald.

    Slides, shown to the meeting by state director Chris Stone, also revealed that the party signed up 2319 new members in 2019 – the year the division had elections at a state and federal level – but this year that figure was significantly lower at 1211.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/record-number-of-nsw-liberal-members-quit-amid-war-over-preselections-20220410-p5achd.html

  2. Boy the press’s behavior yesterday was a disgrace, with the ABC leading the pack. Do we really have to put up with six weeks of this.

    As a side note 0.1% is the target cash rate, it may or may not be the cash rate.

    A comparison of the Australian target cash rate and the overnight interbank lending rate shows that, after around a decade of being identical, the economic impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic led to the actual overnight lending rate being lower than the Reserve Bank of Australia’s target rate. This means that banks are lending to each other at lower rates than the “official” interest rate. One reason for this is the that the Reserve bank has made money available to banks in several new ways over this period (such as repo agreements where banks can pledge assets for short term funds), increasing liquidity in the banking system.

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1275530/overnight-interbank-cash-rate-vs-target-cash-rate-australia/

    Albo was honest, Morrison was a smug and ignorant, the entire press core acted as an ignorant pack.

  3. Hi All from a warmish evening in Sainte-Foy,

    This morning (here) I checked my email over coffee, to first find an email from Michael West including his article: The Dirty Election: how the cards are stacked in favour of Scott Morrison https://www.michaelwest.com.au/the-dirty-election-how-the-cards-are-stacked-in-favour-of-scott-morrison/

    I thought it made sensible reading:

    If you’d just touched down from Mars, had no idea about Australian politics and tuned in to the ABC’s 7.30 Report last week to watch Leigh Sales interview Scott Morrison, you would have come away thinking this bloke was unbeatable, a PM par excellence. His achievements, his steely conviction utterly fake yet utterly impressive to those who didn’t know better. Michael West reports on a stacked election campaign.

    To get to the point, Labor may be streets ahead in the polls but Scott Morrison is now in his element. His government is a shambles but, with the three major media houses backing him, and the ABC and others truckling to their daily news agendas, Anthony Albanese will have to win this thing, not wait for Morrison to lose it.

    The propagandists of News Corp will run hard for Morrison. Already, according to their questionable Newspoll, the gap has narrowed sharply. Sure, they want a contest, it sells their propaganda sheets, but given all the subsidies and favours which Rupert Murdoch, Nine Entertainment and Seven have wrung out of the Coalition they will be surely be barracking for the Coalition and bagging Labor till the cows come home.

    Ok, as Fred Dagg would say “the house is still for sale”.

    But then I went further onto my email, and discovered notifications from 9 Entertainment among others saying that Albo had made the major gaffe of the campaign, and it was all over, red rover.

    Then there was an email from Lenore Taylor to Guardian subscribers sounding a bit defensive. Without actually saying it, I think she implied that the Guardian just had to join the media pile-on, because gaffes like these are often points where elections turn, and the public makes up their mind.

    Ok, so Albo stumbled, more badly than the questioner (Claire Martin of the Tele?) could ever have hoped.

    But, this “gaffe”, the media loudly proclaimed, got Morrison a free pass from any media scrutiny over his inability to explain how Alan Tudge had gone to the back bench when he was still part of cabinet. Talk about mean and tricky.

    And of course the SMH now has today’s political coverage based on explaining how Morrison will leverage “The Gaffe” ™ , complete with pictures of a sheepish Albo, to promise 1.3 billion new jobs in the next few years.

    So:
    No one, even the Guardian, bothered to cover the policy details that Albo was announcing in Tassie – and I have just now gone to the SMH website to see what it was – a packaged for children (with hearing difficulties? ?)?

    Talk about lazy journalism. So no SMH journalist could even be bothered to talk about the policy announced, which is probably very important to many families around the country.

    I feel like I have just touched down from Mars.

    It looks like the media in Australia, sadly including the Guardian, have no intention of letting any policy discussion pollute their clean narratives.

    France had a bad day on Sunday (grrr le Pen), but the standard of journalism is far higher here. Actual policies are discussed.

  4. f you’d just touched down from Mars, had no idea about Australian politics and tuned in to the ABC’s 7.30 Report last week to watch Leigh Sales interview Scott Morrison, you would have come away thinking this bloke was unbeatable, a PM par excellence. His achievements, his steely conviction utterly fake yet utterly impressive to those who didn’t know better.

    The media narrative was the same with Howard. Everyone just assumed he’d pull rabbit after rabbit out of a hat time and again because that’s what he’d always done. Morrison as the brilliant marketing man campaigner is being given the same treatment.

    Of course, it’s all true until it’s not. Howard continued to pull rabbits out of hats and win elections until he didn’t. It will be the same with SfM.

  5. Douglas and Milko at 6:11 am

    the standard of journalism is far higher here. Actual policies are discussed.

    That’s what happens when you are free of the Anglo Saxon Pestilence aka Rupert Murdoch.

  6. Confessions,

    I am inclined to agree with you. The MSM coverage has a very 2007 feel about it.

    We will find out in 6 weeks time just how much of a player the media still is in Australia.

    To get Morrison over the line, they will have to reverse the largest polling gap between pre-campaign polling and the election result in Federal Australian electoral history.

  7. poroti

    That’s what happens when you are free of the Anglo Saxon Pestilence aka Rupert Murdoch.

    Yep, and Chile, with a population a bit smaller than Australia’s, had decent media diversity, and hence many voices.

    There is actually a structural problem with the Australian media, which the various democracy monitoring bodies around the world have noted, since the days of Menzies.

    Australia can have a significant number of different media owners, but they all live in either Point Piper or Toorak, and hence there is still no diversity.

    And this same problem manifests in Company boards in Australia – in fact the same small group of (almost all) white, (mostly) male, and (just about all) people from privileged backgrounds run both our media and our companies.

    Perhaps Australia’s isolation allows this – but then why the difference with Chile?

    They have more anarchists?

  8. This election has the feel of the 2015 Queensland state election, the parallels are that we have an opposition leader who is smart and likeable but not very well known and a bit unpolished. We also have a government that if not quite as abject as Cando Newmans rabble has really performed poorly and unprofessionally this last three years. Albo might not be as slick as Morrison but this might work in his favour. The election may end up being close but I expect the ALP will prevail despite a very anti ALP media pack just like Qld 2015.Some on here highlight Queensland as the villain last election but maybe Queensland smelled a rat with Shorten. Chalmers is also a very good treasury spokesman which Bowen wasn’t. Also Labor’s vote under performed elsewhere as well.

  9. If the overnight cash rate was different to the target cash rate ( I don’t know what it was, or how to find out) all Albo has to do to put the press rabble in their place is to say, he looked it up as it seems that people are interested, quote the two values this morning and note Morrison got it wrong.

  10. poroti,
    Murdoch has well and truely nailed his colours to the mast with the support of BREXIT (which causes enormous problem here in France for all sorts of people), Trump, Sky News (Australia) and Fox.

    No way would he ever support anyone even slightly socially to the left of Morrison.

    And I would expect that if Morrison wins, Dutton will be PM within 18 months.

  11. The lib/nats combined primary vote is struggling to reach 38% , alone the 40% they need to make the election a contest in any state/territory

    The hyper venting from the lib/nats propaganda media units aware that they are in the final 6 weeks of Morrison and his cronies era from being over .

  12. Prince Planet

    “ Some on here highlight Queensland as the villain last election but maybe Queensland smelled a rat with Shorten.”

    Yet they didn’t smell a lying slime ball with Morrison? And it’s for this reason that I struggle to have faith in the Australian voter.

  13. In regard to Bushfire bill at 1ish this morning . Siimon with the two ii’s which my spell check didn’t like would be a full on Scomoe supporter. No surprises he’d hang off and elevate Scomoes every word. The thing that gets me about conservatives is that they are normally the ones whose well heeled offspring will have the most to lose from the destructive policies of the coalition. I’m from a long line of battlers and “poors” once I’m gone that’s it, yet I still care about the future. Someone said it’s possible our species role is to destroy the earth I hope they were wrong.

  14. If there is a legit “narrowing”, then it should be reflected in all polls, so its reassuring that Morgan didn’t change.
    OTOH, the state breakdowns changed a lot (only NSW and QLD steady), probably very high MOE at the state level, esp smaller ones.
    National polls arent very useful this election, need to workout state trends.

  15. “ It looks like the media in Australia, sadly including the Guardian, have no intention of letting any policy discussion pollute their clean narratives.”

    The Guardian are stacked with Trumble Tories (with a couple of notable exceptions: hi Amy!)

  16. You would think NSW Lib dramas will have to effect their campaign, harder to find volunteers, but i guess it was always going to bad, and its normal for them to have to pay people to hand-out flyers these days AFAIK.

  17. Honestly , where do people get the idea Morrison is good campaigner , they must not be following politics very well

    Like with Lib/nats under Abbott the real opposition was Newsltd and other lib/nats propaganda media units who are doing the campaigning , exact same thing has happen under Morrison ,
    Newsltd and other lib/nats propaganda media units who are doing the campaigning

  18. I wonder if Albo-gaffegate will stretch into day 3 of the campaign.
    Wouldn’t be surprised if the anti-Labor forces squeeze a week out of it.

  19. The Panic had a sail around the bay, should return to its moorings soon.

    The Antagonistic Should appear today.

    No break from 53-47 for the moment.

  20. Cronus I agree with you shorten was the better man but Scomoe was a clean sheet back then. He was successfully presented as the guy who had a nice family, loved the sharkies, was always brandishing a beer ( showed he’s not too caught up with religion) and adhered to Jesus’ teachings ( even though most have little time for church they strangely admire those that do). Shorten was presented as a slightly sinister guy. Qlders bought this and I’m not trying to defend them but with Albanese you have someone who might just work with these people. The Australian media. (Murdochracy) is a flipping disgrace but it has always been so. They write the narrative and today the morning tv shows will inform the disengaged of Albos so called gaffe even though we no longer read papers. This time ( barring any disasters) though I think the voters of Queensland will vote more in line with the rest of the country even three or four seats up here to Labor would mean seeya later Scomoe. From the talk around my office the propaganda nonsense in the Murdochcracy won’t have much affect.

  21. Lars Von Trier
    If the lib/nats combined primary vote of 36% is accurate on election day
    The lib/nats will be in opposition for a minimum at least of 3 terms .

    The lib/nats will be absolutely in the political wildness with anything under 35%

  22. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    David Crowe reckons Albanese could pay a staggering cost for a stupid mistake. Well, he might, if the media keep focussing on trivia instead of critically examining policies, etc.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-could-pay-a-staggering-cost-for-a-stupid-mistake-20220411-p5acpc.html
    The Australian is all over Albanese’s gaffe. Simon Benson, for example, says Anthony Albanese’s spectacular economic own goal is serious and won’t be easily erased.
    https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/two-easy-numbers-for-albo-to-recall-1nil-thats-the-score/news-story/81f66fd01c68b3c7454b9f299e0c4034
    They are madly tut-tutting today, the Coalition’s typing pool. “It was a horror,” lamented Phil Coorey in the AFR. “Unfit to be PM,” shrieked Rupert Murdoch’s most ingratiating windbag Terry McCrann in the Australian, flanked by Judith Sloan who conflated Albanese’s gaffe with the entire “Party’s complete misunderstanding of the jobs figures”. Michael West reports on Albo’s howler and hogwash masquerading as journalism.
    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/horror-story-from-fantasy-land-albos-howler-a-gift-for-marketing-maestro-morrison/
    Paul Bongiorno is all over they way Morrison is handling the Tudge payout issue.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2022/04/12/paul-bongiorno-scott-morrison-election/
    Albanese’s epic memory fail was painful but not terminal, says Jennifer Hewett.
    https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/albanese-s-epic-memory-fail-was-painful-but-not-terminal-20220411-p5acoj
    Labor maintained its strong overall lead through the overture to the election campaign beginning this week, but a fall in its primary vote suggests a rising chance of a hung parliament, an exclusive Roy Morgan Poll released yesterday has found.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/australian-politics/federal-election-2022/2022/04/11/poll-labors-lead-unchanged/
    Alexandra Smith tells us that the internal war within the NSW division of the Liberals over preselections has led to a mass exodus of members, with more deserting the troubled party this year than the previous two years combined.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/record-number-of-nsw-liberal-members-quit-amid-war-over-preselections-20220410-p5achd.html
    According to David Crowe, Social Services Minister Anne Ruston is tipped to be named to the health portfolio this weekend in a government move designed to assure voters there will be a smooth transition in the key policy field when Health Minister Greg Hunt leaves the post at the election. Not one that exudes much empathy,
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/morrison-to-name-new-health-minister-while-tudge-in-limbo-20220411-p5acpm.html
    Shanw Wright and Katina Curtis says that Morrison will ramp up his economic attack on Anthony Albanese with a promise of 1.3 million jobs over the next five years, seizing on the Opposition Leader’s embarrassing campaign stumble where he could not remember Australia’s unemployment rate and official interest rate.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/morrison-promises-1-3m-jobs-in-five-years-to-attack-albanese-on-the-economy-20220411-p5acoe.html
    Labor has pledged a restart of bulk-billed telehealth services for mental health to undo a change made by the Morrison government as part of a winding back of special COVID-19 pandemic services. Follow updates here.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/labor-promises-31m-regional-mental-health-boost-20220412-p5acs3
    Claims by Labor that workforce casualisation has increased have been exposed, as official figures show the share of people in such work has drifted lower, writes John Kehoe.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/albanese-s-casual-jobs-claim-is-wrong-according-to-abs-data-20220411-p5acjp
    Researchers Tom Akhurst and Josh Steinert are concerned that a generational betrayal confronts the next government, and they explain that’s why we need to raise the GST.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/a-generational-betrayal-confronts-the-next-government-and-that-s-why-we-need-to-raise-the-gst-20220211-p59vqs.html
    Advertising entrepreneur, Siimon Reynolds, gives the advertising gong to the Liberals on Day 1 of the campaign.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/that-s-why-i-love-australia-liberals-pip-labor-with-rousing-tv-ad-20220411-p5aclm.html
    Benjamin Moffitt tells us about populism and the federal election and what we can expect from Hanson, Palmer, Lambie and Katter.
    https://theconversation.com/populism-and-the-federal-election-what-can-we-expect-from-hanson-palmer-lambie-and-katter-179567
    The rental crisis is just beginning, warns Karen Maley.
    https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-services/the-rental-crisis-is-just-beginning-20220411-p5acj5
    Renters spend 10 times as much on housing as petrol. “Where’s their cost-of-living relief?”, asks the Grattan Institute.
    https://theconversation.com/renters-spend-10-times-as-much-on-housing-as-petrol-wheres-their-cost-of-living-relief-180702
    Liberal moderates have expressed concern that Scott Morrison has flagged committing during the election campaign to a ban on transgender women playing women’s sport.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/apr/12/liberal-moderates-concerned-by-morrison-raising-trans-women-sport-ban-during-election-campaign
    One week since prayer room allegations and barely a peep from the mainstream media. It has been a week since the contents of the Sparke Helmore investigation into allegations of misconduct by federal Liberal Party ministers in the Australian Parliament House Prayer Room by YouTube channel FriendlyJordies. Not to mention AFP raids on the whistleblower who helped with the investigation, writes Callum Foote.
    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/mainstream-media-quiet-on-prayer-room/
    Sydney is often touted as a global city, but the transport turmoil over the past two months is not consistent with that lofty claim, says the editorial in the SMH.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/sydney-is-a-global-city-it-must-have-reliable-public-transport-to-match-20220411-p5acow.html
    Almost a third of students expelled from state government schools during the first year of the pandemic had a disability, and youth disability advocates warn the trend could worsen.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/devastating-impact-rise-in-proportion-of-disabled-students-expelled-during-pandemic-20220403-p5aad3.html
    The Coalition has dodged questions about a $500,000 payout made to Alan Tudge’s former staffer Rachelle Miller, with senior ministers and the finance department refusing to comment amid controversy over the education minister’s ongoing role in federal cabinet. Will journos keep asking about this at Morrison’s pressers?
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/apr/11/government-wont-comment-on-500000-payout-to-rachelle-miller
    Jack Waterford says Labor is scared of the shadow of a Murdoch paper tiger.
    https://johnmenadue.com/labor-scared-of-the-shadow-of-a-murdoch-paper-tiger/
    For the second successive election, billionaire Clive Palmer is using his wealth to try to determine or at least significantly influence who will govern the country for the next three years. As was the case in 2019, Mr Palmer is spending at least $70 million on advertising, more than all the major parties combined, writes David Solomon who looks at the price of democracy.
    https://johnmenadue.com/what-price-democracy-2/
    People with disability are packing boxes, cleaning and gardening for legal pay rates as low as $2.27 an hour, a royal commission has heard.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/apr/11/people-with-disability-working-for-legal-pay-as-low-as-227-an-hour-inquiry-hears
    In France, Hungary and Serbia, political candidates have paid no price for their close ties to the Russian president since his brutal invasion of Ukraine, writes Peter Hartcher who says the West should start to worry.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/putin-fan-club-ascendant-in-three-european-elections-why-the-west-should-worry-20220411-p5acn3.html
    Mary Ward reports that people with O negative blood are being urged to donate over the next fortnight, as the nation’s supply of emergency blood drops to 1.5 days. (We give our blood free but it is a real pain in the neck to get to the few collection places. Make it easier – pop-ups in shopping centres perhaps – for people to do it).
    https://www.smh.com.au/healthcare/plea-for-donors-as-universal-blood-type-supply-dwindles-20220408-p5abz1.html
    Michaela Whitbourn tells us that yesterday a former elite soldier told the Federal Court he felt threatened into co-operating with three newspapers being sued for defamation by war veteran Ben Roberts-Smith because the media outlets’ lawyers had told him they believed he was involved himself in an unlawful killing in Afghanistan.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/ex-sas-soldier-felt-threatened-into-giving-evidence-court-hears-20220411-p5ackh.html
    Mike Foley writes that Australia’s energy generators are warning households and businesses face higher electricity bills within months after coal prices jumped due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and floods in Australia.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/power-companies-say-expect-higher-electricity-bills-within-months-20220411-p5acn8.html
    Eryk Bagshaw writes about the terrible situation on Shanghai and its huge Covid lockdown.
    https://www.theage.com.au/world/asia/why-people-are-screaming-from-their-apartments-in-shanghai-20220411-p5acli.html

    Cartoon Corner

    David Pope

    Alan Moir

    David Rowe

    Megan Herbert

    Matt Golding

    John Shakespeare


    Mark Knight

    Spooner

    From the US



  23. I wonder if the ALP has anything to lose by threatening a major enquiry into our concentration of media? I mean could the coverage be any more skewed. Those front pages remind me of 2007 where the old dirty digger sent yobbo right winger Col “pot” Allen out to co-ordinate an anti Rudd cyclone consisting of Sgt Schultz cartoons and kick this mob out headlines.

  24. “Siimon ( ii) is an Australian advertising entrepreneur and expert on personal and business achievement.”…
    I wouldn’t put any store in someone that believes in Feng sushi & added the second ..i… to bring him fortune, his claim to fame is self help books ( right up SfM street) & the grim reaper Ad.. looking back it’s possibly the worlds most dated Ad

  25. Two things(before I never mention it again…well, maybe, I’m going to head office today and I’ll see if they have anything to say about it).

    Firstly, in hostile territory, this is the assessment:
    Albanese’s epic memory fail was painful but not terminal, says Jennifer Hewett.
    https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/albanese-s-epic-memory-fail-was-painful-but-not-terminal-20220411-p5acoj

    And secondly, when I was in the car yesterday afternoon listening to the ABC news on the radio, they gave equal weight to both leaders and called it a day of ‘stumbles and fumbles’. However, they then went on to discuss the Tudge matter in depth, not the Albanese ‘fumble’.

    Might I also add that it seems okay with the media for Morrison and Frydenburg to misplace BILLIONS of real money, but not exactly remembering the Cash Rate is a deadly mistake somehow.

  26. Prince planet says:
    Tuesday, April 12, 2022 at 7:23 am
    I wonder if the ALP has anything to lose by threatening a major enquiry into our concentration of media?
    —————————————————-

    Thats why the media is hyper venting badly , and the media like the lib/nats do not want a Independent federal Integrity commission , because it will likely look into the Lib/nats and their political propaganda media arms

    And media enquiry could happen

  27. The gaffe. Here we go, day two. It’s confected outrage, and only important to the extent that people vote on perception as much as, if not more than, reality. And people’s perception of Morrison is what exactly?

    As for the shock horror blow back, this is what Birmingham said:

    “If you don’t know what the interest rate is, you can’t be trusted to put the right policies in place to keep them low,” Birmingham said in a statement. “If you don’t know what the unemployment rate is, you can’t be trusted to keep Australians in jobs.”

    Even the dumbest fluck would realise that because Albanese got a number wrong on the morning of April 11 doesn’t mean that as Prime Minister with the wheels of cabinet and government that “policies” and “jobs” can’t be managed. For chrissake, Birmingham even dared use the “trust” word, a word that that lot of mismanageing liars should stay well away from.

    As for Howard, did the old fart not know the context?, or is he just getting so addled he’s degenerated into telling the truth?

    I thought Albanese came out the better by a decent margin, but then I would, wouldn’t I.

  28. Its bizarre seeing the LNP trying to score points on employment numbers, eg ‘The Advertiser’ frontpage.

    The party of robodebt boasting about numbers.

  29. Jim Chalmers on RN taking PK to task for her shallow gotcha obsession, by outlining in detail Liberal failings on the economy – and what Labor will do about it.

    To be fair to PK, she is letting Chalmers get through his spiel without interrupting

  30. “chookless head” is very funny.

    I wonder what the readership is here. How many people start their day the BK way.

    …. with thanks.

  31. sprocket_ @ #35 Tuesday, April 12th, 2022 – 7:40 am

    Jim Chalmers on RN taking PK to task for her shallow gotcha obsession, by outlining in detail Liberal failings on the economy – and what Labor will do about it.

    To be fair to PK, she is letting Chalmers get through his spiel without interrupting

    Chalmers should be on the hustings doing this every single day.

  32. “If you don’t know what the interest rate is, you can’t be trusted to put the right policies in place to keep them low”

    Interest rates are low as emergency support for an economy that is very close to carking it.

    If the Libs want to keep interest rates this low, they can only do that by continuing to suppress wages and supporting policies that skews investment towards property speculation instead of productivity enhancements in the real economy.

    Birmingham reveals himself as the one who hasn’t got a clue.

  33. The lumpy, lopsided, meat pie face together with the tell-a-lie grin is presenting itself with extra runny sauce to a public, enough of whom, may fall for the nonsense announcements again.
    The meat pie and his tag-a-long coat tails will bet the house on a one trick pony.
    Nah, even with the ridiculous one sided media coverage, the contents of the pie are so dodgy, and for so many reasons that the speech writers need to make ready the concession speech.
    Somebody has added the brand “horrible horrible person” and it will be enough to save the lucky country.
    The sooner the Federal ICAC is established, a review of media ownership laws begins and a framework to establish government appointments to plum jobs, is developed, the sooner this nation moves ahead.
    Morrison and the media should be harshly punished for subjecting the voters to 40 days in the wilderness!

  34. D&M

    ‘Talk about lazy journalism. So no SMH journalist could even be bothered to talk about the policy announced, which is probably very important to many families around the country.’

    Similar to the 2010 campaign, where (as candidate) I was constantly having to explain that, yes, Labor did have a climate change policy and yes, it had been announced….but the media’s focus had been entirely on some guy who gatecrashed it wearing a koala suit.

  35. Further to my prior contributions on the relevance of the Cash Rate set by the RBA and the unemployment rate, advised whenever it is, Frednk is correct

    The Cash Rate set by the RBA is indicative only

    Because, in the real world Global Financial Markets function

    Money is not only fluid, it is critical as banks (the principal lenders) set their Treasury positions based on need

    So they buy and sell at market, setting their books

    Supply and demand

    And this function never stops – because markets function

    The same with equity markets

    The RBA Cash Rate is indicative only

    The direct entry of the RBA into markets, repurchasing to provide liquidity to financial markets (that word again) is an option for the RBA, used at times such as during the initial period of the Pandemic (but now eased, deferring to markets – that word again – not intervention)

    Can do capitalism is the default position of Money Markets

    Hence banks have their Treasuries – and the complexities they trade on daily basis

    The 10 Year Bond Yield was up – to over 3% yesterday

    Then you have inverted yields when they are in the equation

    All these moving parts are indicative – and they are traded 24/7

    The RBA Cash Rate is indicative only

    Underpinning this is that interest rates are basically a function of cost of money plus inflation – and they are on the rise because Central banks are deferring to can do capitalism

    The emergency default positions of central bank interventions has passed

    And in regards the unemployment rate, someone employed to sell meat pies at the MCG or man the turnstiles for any event impacts the unemployment rate

    Such is the nonsense of data

    Employment to me is being in stable employment, consistently remunerated such that you can cover the cost of living as and when

    And go to a bank applying for a home mortgage loan

    So back to Capital Markets and the supply and demand which sets price

  36. ‘Historically stagnant wages…’ despite lowering unemployment rate, leading to cost of living pressures.

    Chalmers is very good today – when PK puts Liberal claims about Labor spending to him, he laughs out loud and lists of all the rorts and waste from a trillion dollars of debt…

    Gets in the last word ‘We won’t be taking lectures from these bumbling incompetents..’


  37. Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
    Tuesday, April 12, 2022 at 6:59 am
    “ It looks like the media in Australia, sadly including the Guardian, have no intention of letting any policy discussion pollute their clean narratives.”

    The Guardian are stacked with Trumble Tories (with a couple of notable exceptions: hi Amy!)

    Lenore Taylor and Murphyroo hid the arrangement with Turnbull regarding financing of ‘ The Guardian’ when they fully supported Turnbull every political move of Turnbull as the political move ever made.
    I remember the days when Australian female journalists were almost literally drooling over Turnbull ever political move.
    One Female journalist even mentioned longevity of Turnbull reign as PM exceeding Menzies.
    And Turnbull achieved zilch.
    The other 2 PMs in the last 9 years were/ are Abbott and Morrison, who destroyed Australia.

  38. This isn’t bad from Spooner (seems the cartoonists aren’t being as feral as the journos because Spooner is usually quite critical of the Left):

  39. The idea that you need to know what the rate is to keep it low is stupid anyway. It’s more examples of Morrison being all politics, no substance.

  40. The Libs might rue the day they thought they could focus on the economy and how important numbers are, and still get away with it.

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