Federal election minus 39 days

Some state-level polling detail to kick off the campaign coverage, plus a few other bits and pieces.

Within the limited ambit of this website, news to relate relevant to the federal election that will be held eventually:

• The Age/Herald yesterday provided results of Newspoll-style quarterly breakdowns of state voting intention compiled from its three monthly Resolve Strategic federal polls so far this year. While the pollster publishes breakdowns for the three biggest states with each monthly poll, these latest numbers offer new insights for Western Australia and South Australia. The results in the former case are Labor 43% (29.8% at the 2019 election), Coalition 33% (45.2%), Greens 9% (11.6%), One Nation 5% (5.3%) and United Australia Party 2% (2.0%). This suggests a two-party swing of around 12%, which if uniform would net Labor not only the three seats generally thought to be plausible for them (Swan on 3.2%, Pearce on 5.2% and Hasluck on 5.9%) but potentially Tangney on 9.5% and Canning and Moore on 11.6% each. The results in South Australia were Labor 40% (35.4% in 2019), Liberal 34% (40.8%), Greens 7% (9.6%) and United Australia Party 3% (4.3%), suggesting a swing which if uniform would net Boothby on 1.4% but not Sturt on 6.9%. However, the respective sample sizes would have been around 450 and 360, with margins of error of around 4.5% and 5%.

The Advertiser reports a poll of 800 South Australian respondents conducted in late February found 49.5% were less likely to vote Liberal at the state election based on the fact that both Steven Marshall and Scott Morrison were Liberals. However, “the firm that commissioned the poll supplied it to The Advertiser without naming the pollster or client for whom it was conducted”.

• A new entrant to the election forecasting market, Buckleys and None, rates Labor a 71.0% chance to form a majority government with the Coalition on 17.3%, the balance representing a hung parliament.

• The timetable for the election runs as follows:

Issue of writ: Monday, April 11.
Rolls close: Monday, April 18.
Nominations close: Thursday, April 21.
Ballot draw: Friday, April 22.
Early voting commences: Monday, May 9.
Postal applications close: Wednesday, May 18.
Election day: Saturday, May 21.
Last day for receipt of declaration votes: Friday, June 3.
Return of writs: Thursday, July 28.

• Jeremy Rockliff and Michael Ferguson were sworn in as the new Premier and Deputy Premier of Tasmania on Friday. Both were unopposed, with Elise Archer ultimately declining to nominate against factional conservative colleague Ferguson after failing to win support.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

971 comments on “Federal election minus 39 days”

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  1. C@tmomma,
    Sadly that won’t happen.
    But a good one liner from Albo apologizing for not throwing drinks for the media would get people wondering what he’s talking about.

  2. C@tmomma:

    He probably didn’t know it was an event for the media and just assumed he was gate-crashing a campaign function, on top of likely trying not to make it obvious that he was filming.

  3. Asha @ #906 Tuesday, April 12th, 2022 – 10:57 pm


    He probably didn’t know it was an event for the media and just assumed he was gate-crashing a campaign function, on top of likely trying not to make it obvious that he was filming.

    Maybe it’s my devious mind but as soon as I was caught out I would have done a quick sly pan. 😀

  4. Anyway, one observation I will make is that it defo seems like Scott has a healthy thirst. Every day he seems to have a drink somewhere. Maybe it’s how he gets to sleep at night?

  5. Any journalist that tries to hide the fact that they were at a private taxpayer funded function with the PM during an election campaign, with no cameras, should lose their press credentials.

  6. south @ #912 Tuesday, April 12th, 2022 – 11:01 pm

    That’s the problem with the press, it’s the only part of the checks and balances that doesn’t get policed well.

    According to Douglas and Milko, the Police were there probably in numbers too as it’s their chosen watering hole and an area where a lot of the top brass live. And, as the son of a copper, Scott is one of them.

  7. Yep

    Pepper sewer rat

    I am so furious at this. During an election campaign, #GutlessScomo hosts free drinks for media. How can they claim to be fair and impartial when ‘partying’ with the PM? The venue looks like the Nepean Rowing Club. I hope the young guy is ok.

  8. C@tmomma,

    Lets hope this get’s some play and I hope more young tiktoker’s get interested in gatecrashing Scotties nights for the next 40 days.

  9. Okay, so the young guy who made the video said that the people at the media party arrived on a bus. That would probably be the media bus that travels around the campaign trail with Morrison. Get the names of everyone on the bus and there’s your compromised crew.

  10. Drinks with Scomo story was on the abc 702 news at 11pm according to twitter.

    Always have a drink before you leak Bernard…

  11. “C@tmomma says:
    Tuesday, April 12, 2022 at 10:55 pm
    Every journalist should be asked tomorrow, were you at the drinks with the media that Scott Morrison hosted at The Penrith Rowers Club last night?”

    The problem is finding anyone willing to identify the compromised reporters. Honour among thieves and all that.

    Still, Labor should have a field day.

  12. south @ #920 Tuesday, April 12th, 2022 – 11:07 pm


    Lets hope this get’s some play and I hope more young tiktoker’s get interested in gatecrashing Scotties nights for the next 40 days.

    You’ve got to know where the slippery bastard is at to be able to do that. According to the young guy that made the video his mate worked behind the bar and so probably gave him a tip off. That’s not always going to happen and Morrison will become more cagey about it all from now on.

    Also, he probably wasn’t planning another event with media as he probably correctly surmised that he’s bought and paid for them already on Day 2.

  13. C@tmomma,
    Well, if she’s wondering why she cops heat on twitter it’s not because she’s a woman. Though I won’t downplay that yes, there’s a bunch of incells everyone just has to put up with sadly.

  14. 8.5% inflation in the US. I wonder if the Fed Reserve will hike rates soonish and the RBA may be tempted to fire the gun during the election. It just may be the most exciting thing Phillip Lowe does in his life.

    It also represents a 10% decrease in purchasing power in the US, and the Russia sanctions probably haven’t been fully realized yet. Things are going to get interesting and very hard for the democrats.

    Btw, I’ve been listening to Amyl and the Sniffers. And they are a great punk band. Amazing energy.

    Oh and Boris Johnson got a fine for his covid party, lucky for him Russia invaded Ukraine because that’ sorta the last straw in any other circumstance. Expect some next level wagging the dog to distract in the UK for the next few days.

  15. It is not appropriate or in any way professional for persons in the media to be attending schmoozy functions or informal drinks hosted by the PM, or any other politician, let alone during an election campaign. It can only lead to a perceptions of them having a conflict of interest and corrupting journalistic standards. Sadly, there aren’t that many journalists who seem to care about being compromised now.

  16. George Christensen has abandoned plans to retire from Politics and is now running for One Nation.

    It’s behind the Australian’s Paywall but looks tasty.

    Also Sharri Markson usual to form has a go at Albo.

    Dawson is Upnorths’ old stomping ground. All those Cane Cocky Tories won’t know whether to put Georgie Porgy one or two.

    I love it when Tories eat their own.

  17. Victoria,
    I totally agree, if he did and off the cuff interview while slightly sloshed and seemed like a nice bloke with a hard job I’d be freaking out.

    Thanks god he proved himself to be a coward and a two face psycho.

  18. Up north:

    Interested. I expected Christensen to do something like this a while back and was surprised that he seemed to be following through on his retirement.

    How would you rate his chances?

  19. So what if Morrison bends the rules for his little soiree? He can be caught in bed with a dead boy and get away with impunity. Meanwhile Albanese can’t afford to get one item wrong in his seventeen-times tables.

    Elections ain’t meant to be fair, darlings.

  20. I have a problem with the media event. However if the PM didn’t come across as some psycho control freak, and was instead friendly and jovial with the young bloke we probably wouldn’t have even come across it.

  21. Mr Bowe
    I know you are busy but I attempted to make a donation to your blog in addition to my normal monthly tithe this afternoon and I am uncertain if the payment went through. can you advise at your leisure?
    Thank you for your efforts.

  22. Mike Carlton @MikeCarlton01

    Look, cool your jets. I despise Morrison as much as anybody here. But it is entirely normal for a campaigning political leader to host drinks for the travelling media. And entirely normal for journalists to accept the invitation. There are other things to fret about.


    Mike Carlton @MikeCarlton01

    Uhuh, And if Albo shouted drinks for the journalists with him (as he probably will do) would you still be shouting from the rooftops ?


    Mike has a point

  23. Morrison treating the media pack to free beers has a bad smell about it, mostly Murdoch journalists I imagine.
    As critical as I have been of Albanese, it is true that the deck is stacked against him in terms of favourable media coverage. I guess all he can do is plough on, and bypass the traditional media altogether

  24. “Pi says:
    Tuesday, April 12, 2022 at 11:40 pm
    How is Morrison handling the pub tests do you reckon?”

    He should lay off the grog for a while. Have his next party for reporters at Maccas (anywhere except Engadine).

  25. https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/election-2022-rogue-lnp-mp-george-christensen-to-run-for-one-nation/news-story/93d9fa167f1b40a1ebce334df6d90148

    Rogue former Queensland LNP MP George Christensen has abandoned his plan to retire from ­parliament at the May 21 election and will run instead as a One ­Nation candidate.

    Pauline Hanson’s spokesman, James Ashby, said on Tuesday night Mr Christensen’s decision to join One Nation would be announced at a press conference in Brisbane on Wednesday.

    Although it was not certain whether Mr Christensen would contest his former seat of Dawson or try to win a different electorate, his popularity in north Queensland would give him a chance of securing a lower-house seat for Senator Hanson’s party.

    One Nation has a candidate for Dawson in Julie Hill, so she would have to stand aside if he were to seek re-election there.

    Mr Christensen told the ­Courier-Mail on Tuesday that he should have joined One ­Nation “a long time ago” after ­realising his beliefs matched those of Senator Hanson’s party.

    He had resigned from the LNP last week, declaring it had betrayed its conservative roots. He opposed the Morrison government’s position on vaccine mandates and reaching net-zero emissions by 2050.

    Mr Christensen announced last year he would resign from parliament at the next election but said he had changed his mind on retirement after an “enormous amount” of lobbying from people over the past two months.

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