Federal election minus 39 days

Some state-level polling detail to kick off the campaign coverage, plus a few other bits and pieces.

Within the limited ambit of this website, news to relate relevant to the federal election that will be held eventually:

• The Age/Herald yesterday provided results of Newspoll-style quarterly breakdowns of state voting intention compiled from its three monthly Resolve Strategic federal polls so far this year. While the pollster publishes breakdowns for the three biggest states with each monthly poll, these latest numbers offer new insights for Western Australia and South Australia. The results in the former case are Labor 43% (29.8% at the 2019 election), Coalition 33% (45.2%), Greens 9% (11.6%), One Nation 5% (5.3%) and United Australia Party 2% (2.0%). This suggests a two-party swing of around 12%, which if uniform would net Labor not only the three seats generally thought to be plausible for them (Swan on 3.2%, Pearce on 5.2% and Hasluck on 5.9%) but potentially Tangney on 9.5% and Canning and Moore on 11.6% each. The results in South Australia were Labor 40% (35.4% in 2019), Liberal 34% (40.8%), Greens 7% (9.6%) and United Australia Party 3% (4.3%), suggesting a swing which if uniform would net Boothby on 1.4% but not Sturt on 6.9%. However, the respective sample sizes would have been around 450 and 360, with margins of error of around 4.5% and 5%.

The Advertiser reports a poll of 800 South Australian respondents conducted in late February found 49.5% were less likely to vote Liberal at the state election based on the fact that both Steven Marshall and Scott Morrison were Liberals. However, “the firm that commissioned the poll supplied it to The Advertiser without naming the pollster or client for whom it was conducted”.

• A new entrant to the election forecasting market, Buckleys and None, rates Labor a 71.0% chance to form a majority government with the Coalition on 17.3%, the balance representing a hung parliament.

• The timetable for the election runs as follows:

Issue of writ: Monday, April 11.
Rolls close: Monday, April 18.
Nominations close: Thursday, April 21.
Ballot draw: Friday, April 22.
Early voting commences: Monday, May 9.
Postal applications close: Wednesday, May 18.
Election day: Saturday, May 21.
Last day for receipt of declaration votes: Friday, June 3.
Return of writs: Thursday, July 28.

• Jeremy Rockliff and Michael Ferguson were sworn in as the new Premier and Deputy Premier of Tasmania on Friday. Both were unopposed, with Elise Archer ultimately declining to nominate against factional conservative colleague Ferguson after failing to win support.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

971 comments on “Federal election minus 39 days”

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  1. This will sound simplistically dumb, but from tomorrow, Day 3, onwards, Albanese’s number one objective must be to smile as much as possible (without looking like a Cheshire cat).

    The imagery right now is Morrison with a constant winning grin, and Albanese looking frowny, worried and grim.

  2. nath @ #848 Tuesday, April 12th, 2022 – 10:07 pm

    Upnorth says:
    Tuesday, April 12, 2022 at 10:03 pm

    Sorry I haven’t been back to Oz to shout you that Crownie. And if I do get back Melbourne is usually at the bottom of the list. But I shall make it – one day.

    I hope you have been steering clear of Victorian “Fish and Chips”. They use shark down there.

    Good to see your putting Labor Number 1!!
    Cheers. I’m looking forward to it and the flake is still delicious!

    It has nothing on battered Flathead Fillets.

  3. @ Mrmoney – very sad. Yes most Australians a living a life. Ups and downs. Most thinking of Easter and long weekends. Albo “buggered up” but for most Australians it won’t feature too high on the Radar.

    A long campaign maybe won’t work in SfM favour.

  4. Morrison hosting private drinks for the press on the bus at a public hotel in Penrith, with the AFP providing security.

    Is this true to form?

  5. “Is anyone able to calculate, if there was non-compulsory, optional preferential voting in Australia, and the turnout for age groups in France were replicated here, what would the expected change in 2pp be compared to compulsory voting?”

    Well, if the numbers given above in this thread are accurate with under 60% turnout for under 34s and much much higher in the older age brackets, the ALP and Greens would get BURIED with optional voting. Absolutely buried.

    When you take into account that optional voting is probably undercutting the French left and Melenchon still nearly surpassed Le Pen for the 2nd round, it brings into perspective that France is probably not at all a more far right wing country than say Australia, despite some reporting in the past 24 hours.

  6. I didn’t see this one mentioned (apols otherwise.)

    Scotty visits East Coast Canning, reprises CanDo’s famous “Strong” campaign:

  7. I got called by the ALP phone bank this evening. I’m in Swan and I think this is the first time I’ve received such a call. It was an interesting chat. I think I was her last call of the day

    I’m not sure if this means that the ALP are putting more resources into Swan, or they’ve only now found my phone number.

  8. Asha says:
    Tuesday, April 12, 2022 at 10:09 pm

    More likely he was just stoned on election day:
    I think I’ve ticked all those boxes over the years tbh.

  9. Jaeger says Tuesday, April 12, 2022 at 10:11 pm

    I didn’t see this one mentioned (apols otherwise.)

    Scotty visits East Coast Canning, reprises CanDo’s famous “Strong” campaign

    I wonder if that’s one of those beers that give you a strong dose of the runs.

  10. I wonder if that’s one of those beers that give you a strong dose of the runs.

    It doesn’t specify ale or lager, so… it’s full of something.

    “Kinder Surprise”.

  11. @ C@tmomma

    Love Flathead! Battered or just rolled in plain flour! Spainish Mackerel though IMHO makes perfect fish for fish and chips….

    BTW – Mrs Upnorth adopted a stray cat that we think was tortured by some horrible people. The vets did a wonderful job fixing her up.

    However she came home pregnant. Mrs Upnorth is chuffed that mummy cat – a pretty Siamese – gave birth last week to two little ones.

    Having already housed 3 felines in our Condominium I’m now under great pressure from Mrs Upnorth and daughter to keep these 3 newcomers.

    I think I am outnumbered.

    If one of the kittens turns out male and Labor wins I want to call it Albo!

  12. alias says:
    Tuesday, April 12, 2022 at 10:19 pm
    Flathead: $56 kg last time I saw it.

    Geez. Need a bank loan for that. Fortunately I’ve never paid for Flathead or Mud Crabs. Plenty Upnorth.

  13. BC:

    Swan’s a key marginal. I imagine they’ve been ringing around for months now, though they will have definitely stepped things up since the election was called. (The campaign I’m involved in is now doing calls four days a week, and this is in a seat that’s a rather lower priority than Swan would be )

  14. sprocket_
    Re Morrison and media at Penrith Hotel.

    Does anyone know which hotel?

    Edited due to wrong paste of Sprocket’s post.

  15. Yes true Upnorth. Both our kids love it so every now and again we push the boat out, so to speak. Don’t suppose you’d ever see flathead up there though plenty of other options on the seafood front.

  16. The PM having a private taxpayer funded drinks party with the press, with no cameras, during an election campaign, is pure and un-adulterated corruption.

  17. @ alias – yes plenty of seafood in Thailand. I have tried the salted Tilapia but it has that muddy taste most Freshwater fish have. Plenty of good prawns and blue swimmer crabs though.

    No flathead but lots of barramundi which they call “sea perch”.

    For me yellow crab curry in Phuket is the go, along with Phuket Lager.

    I’m damn sure it’s better than that Hokey Beer Morrison has been peddling.

  18. The unemployment rate and related numbers (under-employment, total labour under-utilization, hidden unemployment) are crucial because they convey at a glance the scale of needless suffering caused by the federal government through dumb fiscal policy. So these numbers really ought to be monitored closely by all politicians at all times. And how difficult is it to memorize a few facts that you know you will probably be asked during an election campaign? On the other hand this is a confected controversy because neither the ALP nor the LNP nor mainstream economists nor mainstream journalists are endorsing policies that would deliver full employment. In a sense it is pointless to monitor a problem closely if you aren’t planning to do anything about it.

    The Greens, on the other hand, advocate policies that would definitely deliver full employment in its true form. That means no unemployment except the frictional unemployment comprising the 1 to 2 percent of the labour force who at any given time are in a short (days or weeks, not months or years) and harmless transition from one job to the next. Full employment also involves no under-employment and no hidden unemployment, higher quality jobs and stronger working conditions economy-wide, and a number of job vacancies that is always many times larger than the number of job-seekers. An economy like that can be maintained indefinitely with judicious use of discretionary fiscal policy combined with the automatic stabilizer of a Job Guarantee that sets the wage floor for the economy and leaves no-one behind.

    A job that pays a decent wage should be a basic human right enshrined in law, available to everyone who wants one, and not subject to the vagaries of private sector spending.

  19. C@tmommasays:
    Tuesday, April 12, 2022 at 9:57 pm
    I have finally found the form of words to use against the Authoritarian Right when they bleat about ‘Cancel Culture’:

    Actually you don’t have to be from the right to dislike ‘cancel culture’. I think it’s been way overdone and I’m very much from the political left.

  20. Love the sound of that yellow crab curry @Upnorth. Haven’t tried Phuket Lager.

    We used to love black pepper crab with Tsingtao in Singapore. Doesn’t get much better,
    or much messier.

  21. Doug Cameron
    A private event “hosting drinks for the media” says Morrison.
    Looked pretty cosy, just like his media interviews.
    The biased MSM are a blight on democracy.
    The public have a right to know which “journalists” allowed themselves to be wined and dined by the Liberals,
    Fess up!

  22. Seselja being sent to Solomon Islands is actually very good for Labor, when you stop to think about it.

    His seat is vulnerable – Labor will of course get their ACT senate seat, and it’s somewhat unlikely that they’ll get the second one… but the seat being held by Pocock or the Greens is significantly better for Labor, especially if Labor doesn’t get a majority in the Senate.

    Not to mention that Seselja is from the Liberal Right, and we all know that a lot of Liberal moderates are in the more marginal seats – a substantial Labor win would mean the Liberals swinging further to the Right, and could result in the rest of the Liberals falling into line behind.

    By knocking out a few more Liberal Right members, Labor keeps the balance in the Liberals, which means more disunity in the Liberal party post-election.

    Letting the Liberals send Seselja to Solomon Islands, where he’s unlikely to achieve much, means he can’t campaign and can’t then claim to be important. And during Caretaker mode, there’s no way that anyone will be able to secure anything with Solomon Islands, so there’s no real danger to Labor… just an international headache that they couldn’t have prevented anyway.

  23. Yep.

    DRINK STINK: Scott Morrison has been busted on video admitting to “hosting drinks for media” in the middle of an election campaign at a “private event”. The same media who ignore his unprecedented failures and sabotage his opponent. It’s been slammed as “corrupt”. #GutlessScomo

  24. Murdoch’s DT conveniently omits the fact that it was a private party for reporters accompanying Morrison.

    Intruder gatecrashes PM’s private party
    Scott Morrison has been confronted for the second time in a week, this time by a “social activist” at a private function in western Sydney.

  25. Ronni Salt

    In this disturbing video we see lots of people having a great party with @ScottMorrisonMP

    The media.

    At 0:40 Morrison says very clearly:

    “No, no this is a media event. I’m hosting drinks for the media”

    And that explains everything you need to know.


  26. GlenO,
    No it’s not good for labor, it’s the LNP getting to send and envoy for government work during caretaker period.
    Labor should be sending a member so they have equal standing, they are meant to be able to be governing. People who want to lead want to get in on the ACTION.

    The optics let the LNP deal with the issue ,and I fucking 100% bet they will then spike the football about going and sorting out the national security issues in South East Asia.

    Dumb move not demanding a seat on that trip. Even if they sent a shadow shadow shadow no body from a safe seat it’d be better than no one going at all.

  27. Every journalist should be asked tomorrow, were you at the drinks with the media that Scott Morrison hosted at The Penrith Rowers Club last night?

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