As related in The Australian, the Coalition opens its campaign for the May 21 election with its least bad Newspoll headline since December, with Labor’s two-party lead at 53-47, in from 54-46 at the last poll a week ago and 55-45 at the previous poll a fortnight earlier. The primary votes are Labor 37% (down one), Coalition 36% (steady), Greens 10% (steady), United Australia Party 4% (up one) and One Nation 3% (steady).
Scott Morrison’s personal ratings are unchanged at 42% approval and 54% disapproval, but his lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 43-42 to 44-39. Albanese is down one on approval to 42% and up one on disapproval to 45%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1506.
Note also the post immediately below from Adrian Beaumont on the French presidential election.
Asha @ #47 Sunday, April 10th, 2022 – 10:23 pm
Okay, Mr Literal…what federal election is ever ‘in the bag for Labor’? 😆
Wouldn’t newspoll totally miss the effects of Teal voters & overestimate the effect UAP due to the spread of each parties candidates?
This would discount the 1% narrowing in 2PP
I’d also point out that Newspoll’s state polling does seem to have underestimated Labor’s vote in the last few state elections.
Mexicanbeemer @ #50 Sunday, April 10th, 2022 – 10:24 pm
Actually, that’s an interesting point you’ve kind of raised. How many people were out and about, doing Teal, Liberal and Labor campaign launches, or going to the F1 grand prix and just weren’t home to be polled?
If the polling was really close Morrison would have gone May 21 instead of May 7 or May 14.
Sceptic @ #52 Sunday, April 10th, 2022 – 10:25 pm
Yes, Newspoll ask about the UAP as a separate entity but not the Teals. Therefore, how can their support be measured, or factored into the result?
Going in the wrong direction!!
37% primary vote is close to bedrock for a majority government.
I think we should be cautious about comparing polls from 2019 and now. We know 2019 was a poll fail. Of course, 2022 could be another one, but we won’t know that until election night.
The 2007 comparison is interesting. One thing I do recall is that in those days, Newspoll was much more bouncy. Remember the famous September 2007 59-41 that convinced some cabinet ministers that Howard should go?
We need to see more polls from other pollsters before we can assess whether there really is a movement towards the LNP. What concerns me more generally is that it’s as close as it is when the Federal LNP, and in particular Morrison, are so demonstrably incompetent and dishonest. After 2019 I suppose I shouldn’t be surprised but it’s pretty disheartening.
Don’t get me wrong. This could well be the beginning of the Second Miracle, as horrifying a prospect as that may be. Or it could be a sign that Labor’s only going to scrape into office rather than the almighty rout suggested by polling earlier this year. Or it could be some temporary blip. Or perhaps things will continue to bob up and down around this point until polling day, at which point – assuming the polls have got their shit together since 2019 – Labor would be assured of a comfortable majority. No way of knowing until there’s at least a few more polls to confirm the trend.
All we can say right now is there’s been a bit of a tightening, of the sort you usually expect as election day nears, with Labor still polling numbers that would mean a solid victory if reflected in the election.
@Matt31 – it’s also most of the pollsters have significantly overhauled their ownership/methodology.
@Asha – yep.
Either way… we can’t start sacrificing the cattle because of one slightly less-good poll before the campaign has begun.
Been watching 7 tonight. Have seen 3 Palmer United United adverts and 1 pretty lame Labor advert.
Has anyone seen any Liberal TV adverts yet?
Media pile-ons could deliver second ‘miracle’
While some in his party seem to want Scott Morrison to lose next month’s election, the media campaign against the PM may just help him to a second ‘miracle’ win.
Says Chris Mitchell
Matt31
Indeed.
Poll failures are pretty rare in modern-day Australian politics. The only recent ones I can think of were all clustered about that same period from 2018-2019: the Victorian and NSW State elections, and the 2019 federal, all of which underestimated the incumbent.
If the polls are wrong again, it’s unlikely that they will be wrong in quite the same way as they were in 2019. Most of the companies have totally switched up their methodologies since then.
Who knows? Maybe we will be the ones celebrating a miracle come election night.
If the Newspoll 53-47 isn’t some form of outlier, it represents a return to a fairly long run of Newspolls from July to December last year with the ALP 2PP mainly at 53, occasionally 54.
Just about the only Newspolls in this cycle that have been epically bad for the Coalition have happened since Christmas – 56/44 in late January and four 55/45s.
The last half-decent Newspoll for the Coalition was 50-50 in early June.
So, ‘narrowing’, ‘outlier’, ‘return to mean’? To be anything other than these, the Coalition would need to break the 47 ceiling.
C@tmomma @ #51 Sunday, April 10th, 2022 – 10:25 pm
A drover’s dog election.
Good evening bludgers.
For your bludging pleasure, I give you this creation by my colleagues Gianluca and Glenn: https://election-ad-data.uq.edu.au/
Morrison is very unpopular.. satisfaction rating -12%.. this has to be a positive for Labor.
If the Coalition manage to win this election, it does not bode well for non-conservative politics in Australia in the long term, given the objectively poor performance of the Morrison Government. This is an understatement.
Is it possible just possible that all the following results can happen:
1. Far-right Marine Le Pen and the far-left Jean-Luc Mélenchon knock out Macron in first round of French Presidential election.
2. Then Let Pen wins French Presidential election on 24th April
3. BOJO’s Tories score resounding victory in May Council elections crushing Labour party.
4. Then to top it all Morrison wins another Miracle election.
5. After that Republicans win both HOR and Senate elections.
… Thanks for that delightful set of thoughts, just before bed.
Just donated a fair amount to both Kylea Tink and my local ALP candidate.
If ALP doesn’t win the election, I sure as he’ll am not going to let them win my electorate. I’ll also join the campaign as a volunteer
Game on. Thanks for the kick in the ass, Newspoll.
Dandy Murray
Much thanks!
”
Matt31says:
Sunday, April 10, 2022 at 10:33 pm
I think we should be cautious about comparing polls from 2019 and now. We know 2019 was a poll fail. Of course, 2022 could be another one, but we won’t know that until election night.
The 2007 comparison is interesting. One thing I do recall is that in those days, Newspoll was much more bouncy. Remember the famous September 2007 59-41 that convinced some cabinet ministers that Howard should go?
”
To paraphrase Sherlock Holmes it is the trend my dear Matt31 and it is in wrong direction.
As AE pointed, both PV and 2PP are moving in the last 3 Newspolls, if Newspoll is your benchmark.
As someone said before If Morrison wins, its more a reflection on the Australian people rather than Morrison himself.
Lower petrol prices might explain this poll.
The Coalition can’t win a majority with that primary vote. Second preferences will hold the key and it’s hard to gauge where they will flow. Labor still will win.
No sign of the $250 budget bribe yet for pensioners, assume that is being saved for later on the campaign
Seriously guys, I am spooked by this Newspoll because a lot of bloggers on this blog believe Newspoll is your benchmark poll or poll nirvana.
Yep my Mum is still waiting for her $250 payment. Pensioners will happily take it but it’s not going to change a lot of votes.
The silent member for Sturt has awakened from his slumber and now appears on a corflute just down the street.
The Toorak Toff:
Any mysterious puddles underneath it?
… or a snoring sound?
Ven, poll and nirvana are two words I would never imagine to be seen next to each other.
@Ven
And the cherry on the disaster cake being that the Vic Libs win a majority in the Vic Election.
Well brace yourself it will be poll nivana for the next 6 weeks there will be some more of that IPSOS poll from the Fin soon, some Morgan for a laugh with ALP 58-42, the resolve guys, probably close to Newspoll numbers and essential should have voting intention too
If Teals are running in 20 seats and average 10% of first preferences, that’s only 1.3% of the total (nationwide) vote. If their support averaged 20% (that’s probably about the highest possible), it would be about 2.6%.
”Yep my Mum is still waiting for her $250 payment. Pensioners will happily take it but it’s not going to change a lot of votes.”
I never got my $550 from the abolition of the ‘Carbon Tax’.
Thanks Steve777. I was actually going to try and work out that value myself, but now I don’t have to!
The thing is, though, that the teals might get 20% primary in those seats, but there’s a good chance that that comes from the ALP as well. Assuming it’s sourced 50% LNP/ALP, that’s a drop in primary for both the ALP and the LNP, but the drop in primary for the ALP is coming in seats it has no chance of winning. That means a drop in primary in places where it really hurts for the LNP.
Poor Cameronsays:
Sunday, April 10, 2022 at 11:19 pm
As someone said before If Morrison wins, its more a reflection on the Australian people rather than Morrison himself.
I agree entirely. To just accept shit standards for everything,politically shit decisions made by a party with no agenda will be a sad indictment on the people of this country.Its the end for Australia if they accept this total mediocrity.
Re Pi @12:06.
”The thing is, though, that the teals might get 20% primary, but there’s a good chance that that comes from the ALP as well…”
Yes, that’s an interesting thought. I think that many usual ALP and Green voters in seats like North Sydney will vote strategically for the Teal, with second preference Labor or Green. Many swinging voters will vote Teal and preference their usual preferred party. Many Liberals who aren’t hard right and/or Morrison-Pell Christians will also vote Teal.
So on that basis, maybe the Labor primary vote drops by 0.5-1.0% without harming Labor’s chances, although I’d expect a similar drop in the Liberal primary vote.
After 2019 I’ve come to the realisation that Australians broadly are tuned out and are as complacent as the Mauritian Dodo.
The Teal thing is happening. It has to be having an effect. If the ALP primary vote isn’t dropping overall, and it has to be dropping in Teal seats, it means their vote must be increasing elsewhere. Perhaps it’s even a higher proportion of ALP voters in Teal seats voting strategically. 60/40 or 70/30. If that’s the case, the 2PP will be reflecting a shift to the LNP, while the chances of the ALP winning seats will be unchanged.
36% is a 5.5% drop in the lib/nats combined primary vote
Still a comfortable Labor majority
Labor will be in government ,in a multiple of ways
1- lib/nats combined primary vote will not reach 40%
2- Labor primary and lib/nats combined primary vote are the same
3- Labor primary vote is within a 7.5% margin of the lib/nats combined primary vote
65% of voters have an outright or partial interest in home ownership.
Many of the non owners can be bribed by $250.
Nearly everyone has a job (except the ones that don’t count).
Morrison has been “shouting the bar” with public money .
The Teals are in the Liberal heartland.
The press parasites are without a moral spine.
The police are in the pocket of regime.
The football season is in full swing.
Morrison and the “get rich Ponzi pollies” saved Australia from Covid. Not!
Your job is your yoke.
Bribe enough people enough of the time……
Consider all of the above and more, the lying, deceitful, current government, with Morrison as leader, and being in government by way of a miracle, is performing hopelessly to be only achieving a six point deficit in the polls.
The Morrison/Joyce performance has cost a trillion dollars and is coming second.
Any honest performance review would have them “out the door”.
Morrison has experience in being “shown the door”.
And Morrison has often left a collective “sour taste”.
Morrison is finished whatever the election result.
Morrison has not earned “his spurs” or the Australian equivalent.
Let’s hope Morrison is shown to be a teenagers leftover Saturday takeaway feast, the remains of which are flung and abandoned by the road in the early morning of May 22.
“Morrison is very unpopular.. satisfaction rating -12%.. this has to be a positive for Labor.”
It’s mediocre, but not that bad really, and appears to be holding relatively stable.
https://twitter.com/kevinbonham/status/1513129199430606856?t=2I3tXzyELkh7K_ycQBYV9g&s=19
Labor primary has dropped 4 points in a relatively short period of time so they’ll be hoping it stabilises or slightly rises from here.
You’d still rather be in Labor’s position at this stage but unfortunately this is not looking to be an election like 2013 where one side doesn’t need to worry too much.
“The Toorak Toff says:
Sunday, April 10, 2022 at 11:21 pm
Lower petrol prices might explain this poll.”…
Lower doesn’t mean “low”. Petrol prices are still bloody high!… A petrol-price-associated tightening in the polls doesn’t make much sense at the moment.
The issue is: Will the media propaganda lead enough voters to vote against their own interests and return the Coalition?…. Well, it’s too early to say, but it’s up to the voters to decide what do they have as a priority: Their own personal wellbeing or the personal wellbeing of the Coalition mob in government.
Alarm bells ringing…darkness closing in…
“Pisays:
Monday, April 11, 2022 at 12:40 am
The Teal thing is happening. It has to be having an effect. If the ALP primary vote isn’t dropping overall, and it has to be dropping in Teal seats, it means their vote must be increasing elsewhere. Perhaps it’s even a higher proportion of ALP voters in Teal seats voting strategically. 60/40 or 70/30. If that’s the case, the 2PP will be reflecting a shift to the LNP, while the chances of the ALP winning seats will be unchanged.”…
Yes, good point, both ALP and Greens primary votes tend to decrease in traditional Liberal seats, where an Independent has a good chance of defeating the Libs. This time around the number of those seats is increasing, hence you would expect a relative drop in the ALP primary vote nationally which is not associated with an increase in the Coalition chances to retain or win seats.
Chances are that in 2022 the Teals will introduce a similar “unpredictable factor” that Palmer and Hanson introduced in 2019 (the latter two did so especially in Queensland in 2019), but this time around the Teal-factor will run against the Coalition. The ALP has been massively focusing on Qld, so their 2019 massive defeat there is unlikely to be repeated (not to the same extent anyway). The Teals may shock the Libs in NSW and VIC.
At this stage it still looks a majority ALP government, but with a reduced Coalition opposition due to ALP+Teals effects.