Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

Newspoll finds the advantage remaining with Labor on the eve of the federal election campaign, albeit by a narrow margin that they’ve been used to this year.

As related in The Australian, the Coalition opens its campaign for the May 21 election with its least bad Newspoll headline since December, with Labor’s two-party lead at 53-47, in from 54-46 at the last poll a week ago and 55-45 at the previous poll a fortnight earlier. The primary votes are Labor 37% (down one), Coalition 36% (steady), Greens 10% (steady), United Australia Party 4% (up one) and One Nation 3% (steady).

Scott Morrison’s personal ratings are unchanged at 42% approval and 54% disapproval, but his lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 43-42 to 44-39. Albanese is down one on approval to 42% and up one on disapproval to 45%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1506.

Note also the post immediately below from Adrian Beaumont on the French presidential election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,035 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. QLD may be hicksville, but ever since the fallout from the Fitzgerald Inquiry 34 years ago, the ALP has been in power 28 out of 33 years.

  2. ” If and when that transpires, I’d love to see him quizzed on the names of some of the lower profile regional leaders.”

    Or even some of the lower profile countries.

  3. @Barney in Tanjung Bunga – are you still living out of Oz? You had a wonderful time in Vietnam last time I posted regularly. Tanjung would suggest Malayasia???

    Tomorrow is the last day of the Thai year. Wednesday is Songkran thew first day of the new. Its the hottest and driest time of the year. Traditionally lots of water splahing (COVID has put a stop to that), drinking and unfortunately road accidents.

  4. Good reminder Pi .. Maybe that’s why Morrison was quite restrained in his criticism of Albanese. ‘There but for the grace of God etc’

  5. Pi at 9:54 pm

    Hey, do you remember that time way back when Morrison didn’t know the name of the WA Opposition leader?

    Which makes Scotty just like most other people in WA .

  6. alias @ #1000 Monday, April 11th, 2022 – 9:48 pm

    At some point, Morrison is going to go very hard on regional/global instability, China, all that sort of caper. If and when that transpires, I’d love to see him quizzed on the names of some of the lower profile regional leaders.

    When the polls don’t work in his favor the BS will start. Albo laid his gaffe on the table today. Morrison will match that gaffe and raise him a few cluster f#cks…

  7. Given the lack of response, I will put the question again

    Why has the Cash Rate been at accommodating settings for the last 14 years?

    For a period of years post the GFC I can understand – but why have they continued post that recovery period until the impact of the Pandemic 2 years ago?

    And given the pressures being experienced by employers in attracting staff in a World of a Pandemic, where would you expect the unemployment rate to be – and trending?

    Any takers with answers?

    Obviously the media of Murdoch, Costello and Stokes will not pose such questions

    Noted also is that the 10 Year Bond Yield moved above 3% today

    A whole 3 (three) percent

    Savers must be rejoicing in the streets

    Along with the ATO!!!

    Just think of all that taxable interest being declared to the ATO

  8. Central banks all over the world have been doing likewise (with some exceptions) and for the RBA to have done significantly different would have driven up the AUD to unacceptably high (read uncompetitive) levels? Just a guess.

  9. Upnorth @ #1003 Monday, April 11th, 2022 – 7:52 pm

    @Barney in Tanjung Bunga – are you still living out of Oz? You had a wonderful time in Vietnam last time I posted regularly. Tanjung would suggest Malayasia???

    Tomorrow is the last day of the Thai year. Wednesday is Songkran thew first day of the new. Its the hottest and driest time of the year. Traditionally lots of water splahing (COVID has put a stop to that), drinking and unfortunately road accidents.

    I’ve been in Makassar, Indonesia for the last 3 years, but I’ll be leaving in June.

    I had a Songkran in Kanchanaburi about 15 years ago. Best New Years celebration I’ve experienced until the last night when the local kids got pissed and it turned into a bit of a street battle.

  10. What is Murdoch doing? Daily Telegraph, Daily Mail, all with a John Howard headline defending Albanese? Situation normal at The Australia at least.

    SMH and The Age split (yes for the former, no for the latter). The Guardian and the ABC don’t either.


  11. @ Barney in Tanjung Bunga

    Salamat Pagi – Makassar is nice. Also ancient connections to Northern Australia!

    The old railway station in Bangkok is in an area called Makkasan. When Bangkok was settled the community there hailed originally from Makassar and traded across South East Asia.

    I go to Kanchanaburi very regularly, have close friends on the Kwai. I had last Chinese New Year up there and got suckered into a session on Sangsom Rum.

    The topography and crops there are very similar to the Herbert and Burdekin back home.

    But Kanchanaburi has no Wallabies and Queensland no Elephants.

    Safe travels cobber.

  12. Basically the reason the Reserve Bank has kept the cash rate low since 2008 is due to the slow economic recovery, very low inflation and, although the RB is not directly responsible for wages growth, very low levels of wages growth.

  13. A bit of a lurker, but I wanted to float something…

    Am I the only one who wonders if Albanese did it intentionally?

    It feels just a little like what happened in West Wing, where the president pretends to not notice that the camera was “hot”, and made a comment that he couldn’t have made otherwise – it would be played as a gaffe, but also he wouldn’t get blamed, while it definitely does more damage to the other side.

    Albanese gets a tiny hit for not knowing a couple of numbers. Meanwhile, he gets to then hit Morrison in a way that Morrison can’t really counter. What would Morrison say? “I know you are but what am I?” in response to a comment that Albanese didn’t mention him in? And it was on Day One (or Two, depending on how you’re counting), so the minor hit for Albanese will be forgotten within a week… but Labor can now run the quote ad nauseum, without ever pointing at Morrison, and hammer him whenever they want by simply reminding people of all of the ways Morrison has failed to take responsibility.

    Oh, and because Howard made a similar mistake in 2007, he was basically forced to side with Albanese…

    Maybe I’m being overly optimistic…

  14. Steve777 says:
    Monday, April 11, 2022 at 11:30 pm
    That’s the problem with Queensland – a distinct absence of Elephants…

    We do have Clive ………

  15. GlenO @ Monday, April 11, 2022 at 11:27 pm

    Welcome aboard! Not sure it was intentional, but a silk purse may be in the offing, should the fingers be nimble.

  16. GlenO I highly doubt it was intentional, why would Albanese purposely want to make himself look stupid and awkward for some supposed roundabout benefit? I think it’s just a gaffe. He made a mistake, admitted it quickly and the campaign will move on.

  17. If it was deliberate (pretty unlikely IMHO), I would see a parallel with the West Wing episode where Leo McGarry deliberately underperformed at in-house rehearsals for the Vice Presidential debate, only to dazzle everyone with his vastly improved performance for the real deal.

  18. I doubt the gaff was deliberate, but the response probably was thought out in advance to contrast and highlight Morrison’s never wrong, never apologise attitude.

  19. Today was hands in head stuff by Albo but the reality is there is value in the quick learning of waking up early that it is game on.

    Pre election sham games are over and the MSM who if they don’t already dislike you then will at the least think a gaffe is as funny as any fart joke they’ve ever heard

    Come up with a plan for the morning to A. Own the error (again. Yes I know he has already) and B. Change the narrative.

    “I’d like to apologise to Australian’s that yesterday I had a brain fade about the cash rate. Which to be correct is actually 0.06% not the 0.1% the Prime Minister quoted. Managing the economy is a serious undertaking of which I’m fully aware.

    My concern is that this is a government that has come so accustomed to talking in billions that a $5.5B cancelled defence project here or $10B borrowings to cover poor decisions made when the PM was Treasurer with WA pork barrelling on GST means nothing. $750 billion of debt incurred by this 9 year old government that we have nothing new to show for. Wait until they explain the Snowy Hydro 2.0 debt to you all. Anyone want to buy a Sydney Harbour Bridge? They’ll have one of them going at Harvey Norman’s soon I reckon. Look I’m not in for the Melbourne comedy festival best new act of 2022 because it is all downright too bloody serious. As big as a brain fade as I had this is the reason I want to be your Prime Minister..

    Those billions of dollars is money that could go to families for child care, proper disaster remediation or on stopping the outrageous neglect of aged care residents.

    So yep whilst yesterday I made an error in saying the wrong thing, the economy is much more than that and this government doesn’t even begin to understand the needs you have and what their dire actions have caused for not only this generation but those to come.

    Unlike Mr Morrison I’ll own up to my errors and I’ll be working every day to be on your side.”

    Say something along those lines every single minute for the next few days. Every single person you put up. Debt, debt, debt and nothing to show for it. The conservatives will rip each other to shreds if they think that line is taking hold.

    All I’m my opinion of course…

  20. Given the responses, what are the facts behind the economy now recovering to pre pandemic levels?

    Where were the economic indicators leading into the Pandemic, and where was the Cash Rate?

    It would be interesting to obtain the views of the RBA Governor, who defers to the lack of any wages growth hence the Cash Rate at accommodating settings compensating for the lack of wages growth

    “Go to your boss and ask for a salary increase”

    How long ago did Lowe give that advice?

    There are, as always, many competing factors but the beneficiaries of low interest rates maintaining have exclusively been borrowers (except for negatively geared investors)

    So both households and businesses which carry debt

    When the focus is on a figure the bigger game is lost

    Is the Opposition Leader and his team smart enough to draw the criticism then return fire by referencing the bigger picture?

    Particularly now with manufacture and logistics bottlenecks leading to inflation and increasing interest rates?

    Other Nations, including New Zealand but one example, have been lifting official interest rates

  21. alias says:
    Monday, April 11, 2022 at 11:48 pm
    Are you in Bangkok Upnorth?

    Am quite a fan of the Bangkok Podcast, which you’ve probably come across.

    Yes and yes. 7 years now. Did Shanghai for three years before here. Much prefer Bangkok.

    The Thais are a very lovely people – but as Barney points out go a bit gaga when on the Jungle Juice.

    Just as I am a guest on Mr Bowes’ esteemed forum – I know my family and I are guests here. Politically there is much to talk about in Thailand but me as an outsider keep my thoughts to myself.

  22. I think the likelihood of Albo having pretended not to know those figures as part of some byzantine game of 5D chess is about the same as the likelihood of Emma Watson turning up at my front door and proposing.

  23. Sounds like a very wise policy Upnorth. When in Rome and all that. Half your luck living over there with your family. Have always wanted to, but circumstances meant I’ve only ever managed a few years in a couple of other Asian cities, including Singapore, which we are fond of, but doesn’t compare obviously. My wife and kids would love to get live in the kingdom, but education options etc etc.

  24. mj – that’s the thing. It doesn’t ultimately make him look stupid. At most, it makes him look just a little inexperienced at being the leader during a campaign. As alias points out, it also could work in his favour further, by lowering early expectations so that he can impress later.

    Here’s the thing – Albanese has campaigned as a candidate since 1996, and was Manager of Opposition Business heading into the 2007 elections. He’s an experienced campaigner. He also has an economics degree…

    Again, this might be optimism on my part, but I find it hard to believe he wouldn’t know the cash rate target. I don’t think he *should* need to know it, mind you, but the guy who studied economics, who was active in the campaign that saw Howard make the mistake, who had made a point to know values for price of bread and petrol, etc, wouldn’t know the cash rate target.

  25. @ Alias

    Yes it is difficult. 90 day Police Reports. Visa renewals etc. My wife is actually Singaporean (now an Aussie). Our kids have done most of their education outside of Australia. Eldest now in Uni at QLD. Youngest a few years away. But they have grown up as true Citizens of the world (and no prodding by me politically aware – I think it’s in my DNA).

    The two things we miss most are Cheesymite (Vegemite is available) and Twisties. I also crave a Chiko Rolls on odd occasion.

    We have a small team that hands out how to votes for Labor at the Australian Embassy. Never seen any Tories do similar.

    All in all we do enjoy the land of smiles – but it does have its challenges.

  26. GlenO, it isn’t a good look Day 1 of the campaign but if there are no other blunders then it’s going to be pretty much forgotten by May. He may have studied economics but tbh I don’t think he really has a particularly strong grasp on it. His strengths are that he’s collegiate, well meaning, and can recognise and act on good advice.

  27. Upnorth, your wife gave up “the world’s most powerful passport”.. ! That’s quite something. Our kids were born in Singapore (not that doing so granted them any rights there of course) and spent time there, and it’s definitely an added perspective on the world they have compared to their peers. Good on your for putting in the time at the embassy.

  28. mj – I don’t know if you’ve ever studied at a public university, but you generally can’t actually get a degree in something without at least a solid grasp on its basics. But even that’s kind of irrelevant.

    Like I said, this is a question that could be seen coming from a mile away – Albanese prepared for the other variants of it, like prices of bread, petrol, milk, etc. Do you honestly think, after there had been assertions from the Coalition that he was inexperienced in running the economy, that he wouldn’t have similarly memorised those numbers, if he didn’t know them already?

    I just don’t buy it. Had they asked it a week ago, I might have believed it was a lack of knowledge of the values. Day One, though?

    On a side note – to those who are suggesting Albanese should go on the attack… that’s not the best move. Albanese should go all-positive, only attacking Morrison indirectly through inviting comparisons (like by emphasising that he owns his mistakes, as a real leader does). Better for him to come across as a real leader, and have his ministers and candidates do the attacking for him.

    It’s not like Albanese needs to explicitly attack the government, after all – he just needs to emphasise Labor’s expertise and performance in the past, and let the comparisons be done by others.

  29. GlenO, Albanese may have studied economics but I’m not sure his career has required him to give much thought to his studies so far. It seems this election will be more a referendum about how disliked Morrison is as PM and Liberal leader without a lot of confidence in the alternative.

  30. Marketing spiv Siimon (yep, that’s two iis) Reynolds reminds us that election campaigns aren’t about policy, performance, loyalty or honesty. They’re about how well you can fake sincerity.

    First [Morrison’s] delivery. It’s a carefully worded script, but Morrison delivers it naturally, as though it is his off-the-cuff thoughts. Few pollies can present as well as that and he comes across as human, yet statesmanlike. That’s a tough balance to achieve in just 60 seconds or so.

    Note the “as though”… “as though” he means it, I s’pose; “as though” it’s a real interview and not “a carefully scripted”, well, script, maybe? The “as though” is Reynolds’ giveaway: it doesn’t matter if the sentiment is genuine, or the facts are real. As long as it looks “as though” they are.

    And Reynolds is even arrogant enough to let the target audience – Herald readers in this case – in on how they’re being conned, like a magician who shows us how the trick’s done.

    The underlying vibe here is that the best fakers will not only presumably be elected, but that they deserve to be elected. Reynolds is saying that if you can’t even fake sincerity, then how can you be fit to hold office?

    To a hammer everything looks like a nail. To a guy with two iis in “Siimon” everything is an opportunity for faking it: fake patriotism, fake sincerity, and a fake message. He couldn’t analyse a policy if his life depended on it, so let’s make the election about something he does know about: how to con the mug punter.

    Reynolds knows fuck-all about politics, but he knows how to sugar a message to make it seem genuine. It doesn’t matter that most of the audience will realise it’s phoney (in fact Reynolds wants them to celebrate its phoniness) as long as they admire how well it’s been dummied-up as the real thing.

    The young journos on the party buses are “hammers” too, looking for their own “nails”. They’re too young to know anything about life, much less politics. So let’s make the election all about gaffes. Easy to set-up via a gotcha. And easy to present as the tortured metaphor, wrapped up in the phoney proposition, that the best leader is the one who can keep trivial facts in his mind, waiting for a 24 year old bimbo to have a go a tripping him up.

    Once again, facts are irrelevant and policy is something to giggle at in the pub that night.

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