As related in The Australian, the Coalition opens its campaign for the May 21 election with its least bad Newspoll headline since December, with Labor’s two-party lead at 53-47, in from 54-46 at the last poll a week ago and 55-45 at the previous poll a fortnight earlier. The primary votes are Labor 37% (down one), Coalition 36% (steady), Greens 10% (steady), United Australia Party 4% (up one) and One Nation 3% (steady).
Scott Morrison’s personal ratings are unchanged at 42% approval and 54% disapproval, but his lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 43-42 to 44-39. Albanese is down one on approval to 42% and up one on disapproval to 45%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1506.
Note also the post immediately below from Adrian Beaumont on the French presidential election.
Bushfire Bill @ #642 Monday, April 11th, 2022 – 7:35 pm
Oh yeah, 2019, I remember that.
Hope 2022 isn’t a repeat of 2019.
Don’t you, Bushy?
Seats to watch at the federal election in Queensland, where three-way contests and newcomers may hold the key
Brisbane
Held by the LNP with a margin of 5%.
Brisbane was traditionally a Labor seat, until the LNP wrestled it back in 2010 and held it since. But if there’s a swing away from the government, the seat could end up being a three-way contest between the LNP’s Trevor Evans, who has held the seat since 2016, Labor’s Madonna Jarrett and Stephen Bates from the Greens. Support for the Greens in the seat has steadily grown – the party was just two percentage points behind passing Labor and reaching second place in 2019. The ABC’s chief election analyst Antony Green says unless Evans keeps his first-preference percentage in the high 40s, strong flows of preferences could deliver victory to whichever of Labor or the Greens has the higher first-preference vote.
Griffith
Held by the Labor party with a margin of 2.9%.
Another three-way contest is likely across the Brisbane River in the seat of Griffth, where Terri Butler will again face Greens candidate Max Chandler-Mather and the LNP’s Olivia Roberts. In 2019, Butler polled almost 10,000 fewer primary votes than her LNP opponent, but a 6.67% swing to the Greens saw her retain the once-safe seat, held by former prime minister Kevin Rudd between 1998 and 2014. The Greens also won the local state seat of South Brisbane in 2020.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/apr/11/seats-to-watch-at-the-federal-election-in-queensland-where-three-way-contests-and-newcomers-may-hold-the-key
And what about subscription TV? And the much lauded SkyNews?
This from April 7 2022, where the first SkyNews entry is at position 10 of 20..
On questioning from Andrew Bolt on Sky, Paul Kelly said tonight that he sees the Teals as a ‘significant threat’ to the government. Very good to hear.
On the down side though, Bolt and his fellow presenters are all in a cock a hoop mood at Albo’s slip up on the cash rate and the unemployment figure. You’d think they had just won the election. We’ll see if they’re still celebrating in six weeks time.
Mavis @ #630 Monday, April 11th, 2022 – 7:19 pm
‘What struck me was that none of them seemed particularly concerned with the reasons why this sham of a government should be turfed – graft & corruption.’
Something Labor hasn’t fully exploited.
Along with debt and deficit and waste.
Chris Kenny’s ratings trail those of well-known Communist Peppa Pig.
It’s Timesays:
Monday, April 11, 2022 at 7:12 pm
mundo @ #856 Monday, April 11th, 2022 – 7:01 pm
ABC news Tasmania lead story….Campaigns first BLUNDER.
Understandable as it’s probably the only thing that happened in Tasmania today.
—
Not true. My gay dog found a new boyfriend at a Launceston dog park today.
Bystander @ #648 Monday, April 11th, 2022 – 7:43 pm
‘We’ll see if they’re still celebrating in six weeks time.’
We will indeed.
A shame Kelly doesn’t see Labor as a threat to the government.
Sprocket,
WIFM rules the MSM.
sprocket_ says:
Monday, April 11, 2022 at 7:42 pm
And what about subscription TV? And the much lauded SkyNews?
___________
Thanks for the data.
I noticed the other day SKY AD bleeding into the Day time news coverage.
I had thought Laura Jayes was pretty reasonable but the way she indulged Paul Murray and let him talk all over her was disappointing.
I was surprised that she even said she was ‘concerned’ over the polls in Queensland. Why would a political journalist be ‘concerned’ about a poll one way or the other?
I had assumed she was more objective than that.
The Unemployment figure and the Cash Rate are merely figures – figures which change
Simply, at the MCG on Sunday there were signs on the scoreboard apologising for staff service – because of the “international” worker shortages and that they were trying to employ staff
Given that, where would you expect the unemployment figure to be – and trending to?
And with the Cash Rate, the graph of movements since the year 2000 is of interest because it identifies that the setting has been at accommodating settings for the last 14 years, since 2008 and the GFC
It is not the figure
It is the reasons behind the figure
So a stretched labour force and an underperforming economy over now 14 years needing accommodative Cash Rate settings
And some carry on about a figure
It is not the figure but the story the figures tell
Sandman @ #651 Monday, April 11th, 2022 – 7:45 pm
It’s not news but I have three gay roosters who like to hump gumboots.
Seriously, the animal kingdom is fascinating.
Anne Rushton :”Labor don’t have a strong record of managing money”
Jason Clare doesn’t even interrupt her on 730, lets her talk for 60 seconds before he says politely “well I think what Anne said isn’t quite right there”
Lars Von Trier:
Monday, April 11, 2022 at 7:32 pm
[‘Mavis, what’s happening with the BRS trial ? Thoughts on outcome?’]
Witness 56 is pleading the 5th. As for the outcome, I think dear Ben has more problems than Sisyphus.
Mundo,
Turn off the TV.
You think a channel without viewers is deciding this election.
Lars,
Clare had a clear shot earlier. You don’t mention that.
Concern trolls think they rule the world, eh?
Jaeger
Sensible people will be sick of the gotcha questions but I’ll wager we’ll have a lot more of them.
The liberal media cheersquad will smell blood and will be working overnight on some trivia to try and trap Albanese tomorrow.
It’s kindergarten stuff and a sad reflection of the standard of political debate and reporting in Australia.
I despair at times.
Jaeger – don’t despair- try and lift the standard of the debate!
The Albanese story was always going to be the main story on the news tonight. Nothing wrong with that as it’s just politics. It will have little or no impact on the election result.
Anne Ruston is a surprising choice as campaign spokesperson. She’s a weak performer, not very articulate, lacking rhetorical skills. Jason Clare is leagues ahead of her.
Discussion mainly of the situation in NSW:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/apr/11/seats-to-watch-at-the-federal-election-in-nsw-where-both-sides-are-defending-key-marginals
Lars Von Trier @ #656 Monday, April 11th, 2022 – 7:49 pm
Devastating stuff Jason.
I could think of a dozen ways to demolish Ruston off the top of my head. I’m not a parliamentarian.
Once again we have cream puffs from the Labor party who simply don’t have the rage, enthusiasm, passion or political smarts to take down a mediocre tory.
Seen it before.
Pathetic.
alias @ #662 Monday, April 11th, 2022 – 7:54 pm
Apparently not.
Mundo, why are you quoting LVT if you’re looking for an objective assessment of an event? It won’t be good for your sanity mate.
davidwh @ #661 Monday, April 11th, 2022 – 7:53 pm
Gosh, that’s a relief.
Thanks for the endorsement Pi the First.
I thought Clare did well managing a rather snippy Ruston on 7:30 tonight, L’arse. The more punters see of her, the better.
Not interrupting her gave Clare’s response more credibility: respectful and hard hitting.
Not chasing every rabbit down the hole with his 60 seconds was a good use of his time: he hit every one of his marks. Sure, if he had 5 minutes he could have Teed off on a whole bunch of stuff, but he prioritised effectively, IMO.
Lead story in the Daily ToiletPaper
Howard defends Albo; young Libs mock Labor leader
Former prime minister John Howard has reacted to Anthony Albanese’s mistakes after the Young Liberals have put out an ad attacking him.
Clare was very good on 7.30.
Got the talkings points out there very clearly, reminded Ruston and the audience that the two highest taxing governments in recent memory have been this one and Howard’s and defended Albo well.
That slip up by Albo will be forgotten in a day or two. It is not the end of the world. It will dismay ALP supporters and please the L/NP. But Albo learns from mistakes, whereas ScottyfM does not. Who let that fool Morrison into a pub to pull beers where members of the public could nail him with their grievances? If we want to talk about blunders….
Lars Von Trier @ #656 Monday, April 11th, 2022 – 7:49 pm
Anne Rushton :”Labor don’t have a strong record of managing money”
This is the coalition’s killer campaign line.
Morrison used it several times this morning and probably several times more today, I don’t know I can’t watch him.
Labor have to sort out their rebuttal now and start using it post haste.
They can’t leave it hanging out there.
It’s a bullshit line. Deal with it.
Instead of criticising Mundo let’s all just agree with him and then carry on discussing the progress of the election amongst ourselves. It’ll be much easier. I’ll go first if you like.
Mundo I think you’ve got it spot on. Labor hasn’t got a snow flakes chance in hell. Best that we start planning for a tilt at it in 2025. Carry on.
Happy to help Mundo.
mundo:
Monday, April 11, 2022 at 7:44 pm
[‘Something Labor hasn’t fully exploited.
Along with debt and deficit and waste.’]
Not yet though I do get the feeling that most are singularly concerned with their personal predicament, the Morrison Government having almost normalised corruption in government.
I do hope a journalist will ask Morrison how much work disqualifies one from being one of the 4% who are classed as unemployed.
Albo should start his next presser with a list of data, the cash rate, ue rate, bond rate, price of bread, milk, fuel and dog food, the day’s weather, traffic conditions…
Mundo don’t ask for dick…Mundo tells you the way it is.
Puffy which type of bread, fuel and milk? It could be a bloody long list.
Corruption in the media exposed , Morrison also didn’t know the cashrate
David Taylor
@DaveTaylorNews
·
8h
The cash rate today is 0.06 per cent
The RBA’s cash rate target is 0.1 per cent
No one got it exactly right today
Of course Albanese’s gaffe will not lose Labor the election , but it is evidence of a lack of discipline and organization that we cannot afford to replicate. The right wing media will have a field day if it is. As for those who are nice and relaxed about the whole thing, well maybe getting rid of this corrupt right wing cabal isn’t much of an issue for them. Personally, I teach in a run down government school that hasn’t been touched since it was built over 50 years ago. I hand out food and supplies to kids with my own money and a friend buys the kids shoes. Winning this means a lot to me and my colleagues and I sure as hell will let off steam when the Labor campaign operates as it has today. Too much is at stake for stupid mistakes like that, well too much for me and those kids who don’t have anything to eat for lunch or decent shoes to wear.
On Anne Ruston and Jason Clare. I think both agreed beforehand not to interrupt the other whatever was said and, to their credit, neither interrupted. Clare did respond to the economic manager stuff when it was his turn to speak.
The fact that the Eeyores on this site get their information from the trolls is a sad indictment on them.
Edited to emphasise that I actually watched it.
To Mundo’s point – see this comment below from Birmingham exactly the same line. It’s called message discipline.
Senator Birmingham hinted the Coalition would campaign on interest rates following Mr Albanese’s gaffe.
‘Under Labor, interest rates will always be higher than they need to be because they can’t manage money,’ he said.
‘Labor is addicted to spending, which means taxes will always be higher.
Mundo is a dick. That’s the way it is!
GetUp outlines target seats for election
Marginal seats most affected by national disasters, as well as seats with strong pro-climate change independent candidates, will be targeted by left-wing advocacy group GetUp.
The group says it will use its “one million member strong movement” to target the seats of Macquarie, Eden-Monaro, Gilmore, and Page in regional NSW and Ryan in Brisbane.
Election co-director Larissa Baldwin say the five seats are on the frontline of the climate crisis.
https://7news.com.au/politics/getup-outlines-target-seats-for-election-c-6410281
Good to hear they’ll be helping in Page, the locals there need all the help they can get at the moment after the floods.
Kashmir Miller is the Greens candidate in Page and Hanabeth Luke is running as a Climate 200 indie there too. With Getup joining in they might give the Nats a run for their money.
Everyone knows who Albo is now, right?
#4dChess
Lars Von Trier says:
Monday, April 11, 2022 at 8:12 pm
Senator Birmingham hinted the Coalition would campaign on interest rates following Mr Albanese’s gaffe.
‘Under Labor, interest rates will always be higher than they need to be because they can’t manage money,’ he said.
———————
The same coalition in opposition who claim lower interest rates means the economy is busted they cannot manage the economy and the government should be thrown out of office
John Howard getting good reviews in WA media campaigning in The Cave.
I guess he’s using taxpayer money to pay his expenses as he usually does.
Mundo is not exaggerating, the coverage of Albo’s gaffe in the MSM is horrendous.
Senator Simon Birmingham is a gift to Labor
He can hardly put a coherent sentence together which is not contradicting himself
They were all talking about the cash rate at the pub tonight.
On bloke was annoyed about the cash rate because when he went to get a passport a couple of years age and he was asked about his tax returns. He said he didn’t know what they were but told them he wouldn’t mind some tax returns.
They asked what he did for money and his reply stumped them.
He said “I’m on the cash rate mate”.
They asked what the cash rate was and his replied “the bastards change it all the time “, “you never know one week from the next”.
FF,
The coverage of the Greens is even worse. Absolutely, nothing!