Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

Newspoll finds the advantage remaining with Labor on the eve of the federal election campaign, albeit by a narrow margin that they’ve been used to this year.

As related in The Australian, the Coalition opens its campaign for the May 21 election with its least bad Newspoll headline since December, with Labor’s two-party lead at 53-47, in from 54-46 at the last poll a week ago and 55-45 at the previous poll a fortnight earlier. The primary votes are Labor 37% (down one), Coalition 36% (steady), Greens 10% (steady), United Australia Party 4% (up one) and One Nation 3% (steady).

Scott Morrison’s personal ratings are unchanged at 42% approval and 54% disapproval, but his lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 43-42 to 44-39. Albanese is down one on approval to 42% and up one on disapproval to 45%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1506.

Note also the post immediately below from Adrian Beaumont on the French presidential election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,035 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. I agree matt31 – it’ll be ancient history by tomorrow.

    Poor Albo – he’s probably cramming on multiple figures now because the media pack will be looking for the next gotcha.

  2. Vladimir Putin would not call Albanese’s brain fade a “gaffe”.

    Presumably, he’d call it a “deferred numerical recollection operation”.

    To my mind, debate here would be a lot more meaningful, honest and instructive if it wasn’t so
    preoccupied with apparently trying to maintain the morale of ALP volunteers or something, no matter what happens.

    Call a spade a spade.


  3. Greens launch $6.1 billion electric vehicle policy in new election pitch

    The Australian Greens have launched a $6.1 billion plan to invest in Australia’s electric vehicle industry, supporting the re-emergence of vehicle manufacturing in Australia – as part of its bid to secure the balance of power in federal parliament.

    The plan was unveiled by Greens leader Adam Bandt in Adelaide on Wednesday and details a plan to boost car manufacturing and lower the barriers for Australians wanting to make the switch to an electric vehicle.

    Under the plan, the Greens would provide rebates of up to $15,000 – some of the most generous rebates proposed in Australia – and would offer additional “ultra-low-cost” financing for the remaining cost – to help reduce the barriers to owning an electric vehicle.

    The Greens would also establish a $1.2 billion fund to revitalise vehicle manufacturing in Australia, supporting the local production of electric vehicles and parts, and tapping into Australia’s rich supplies of raw materials.

    South Australia had previously served as a hub for Australia’s vehicle manufacturing industries, hosting significant Holden and Mitsubishi factories that have since closed as part of a broader collapse of Australia’s car-making industries.

    https://reneweconomy.com.au/greens-launch-6-1-billion-electric-vehicle-policy-in-new-election-pitch/

    Your wish is my command, compadre!

  4. Mysterious:

    I do think if the ALP lose this election we should just become a one-party country under authoritarian rule. It’s clearly what the people want (not me) – we’ll be under LNP rule for 12 years despite all of the corruption. The only way anything is going to change is when people take to the streets and get media coverage through protesting that way, but the average Australian is stupid so even then I think it is doubtful.

    An interesting point – Mr Howard was widely regarded as competent (incorrectly, as it turns out, but there you go) but was turfed out after 11 years. If by some mischance Mr Morrison were to be re-elected it would be 12 years to total incompetence – leading one to conclude that people prefer an incompetent LNP government to a supposedly competent LNP government!

    The reality is that—as always—an ALP government will be elected if a plurality of people think there are serious problems to be fixed, as in 1943 and 1983 (and will be turfed out as soon as those problems have been fixed, as in 1949 and 1996).

  5. It’s not a gaffe.
    The media can Google statistics if they want to know this information.
    There are many many more important things to consider and I am sure Anthony is focused on them.

  6. C’mon this type of gotcha was perpetrated by the Queensland branch of the Murdochcracy on Anastacia Palaszczuk two days out from 2015 election. She got the answer about as wrong as Albo and two days later consigned Cando Newman to the s**t can. The lesson isn’t that the as ALP will definitely win it’s that if ALP are meant to win ( like I think they will) this so called gaffe is meaningless.

  7. Well, the laugh is, of course, on-line not only is the Albo “gaffe” not leading where I see it but the
    ABC has pointed out the journo who asked the question, and expected 0.01 as an answer – the one they expected Albo to “know” – was actually 0.06 to be correct….
    Now, I have no idea why any of this is important but the report in the ABC says…………..”They both got it wrong” and to seal the deal, asks “Does it really matter?”
    Those who scream Hanrahan here may also be barking up the wrong tree…… again….still….
    In addition, ABC has another piece pointing our Morrison was very evasive when it came to some $500,000 heading to one of his ministers was it? and where why?

  8. To my mind, debate here would be a lot more meaningful, honest and instructive if it wasn’t so
    preoccupied with apparently trying to maintain the morale of ALP volunteers or something, no matter what happens.

    Preach, brother. I might even still bother posting here occasionally if this utopia were to somehow be realised.

    Though while I’m poking my head in, I must say I love that, as always, the most obnoxious and belligerent thought-policing is coming from those who were themselves all too eager to talk down Rudd’s chances during the 2013 campaign.

    (Maybe they’re just cranky that they don’t get to vote for Abbott this time around.)

  9. Goll 2 at 6:22 pm
    Labor when they mention the debt must also say how many 100% it was increased BEFORE the pandemic hit. Without that Bullshit Man and his media bodyguard will just shout ‘It was all the pandemic wot done it” re the $Trillion.

  10. By the time this election campaign is over , Morrison and his cronies will have nightmares of people protesting in Hawaiian shirts and playing the ukulele

  11. How many billions did the Morrison Liberal government give away with the French submarine fiasco?
    What did the French President call Morrison?.

  12. Jesus Christ, if todays carry on is an indicator for the next 6 weeks FMD, I’m outta here. I’ll check BK’s excellent round up, the cartoons and any of Mr Bowe’s updates. The rest of you have taken some sort of crazy pill.

  13. After reading the last ten or so pages here, all I can say about most (thankfully not all) of you is that with friends like you lot, Albo doesn’t need enemies.

    Talk about scarper at the first whiff of gunpowder!

  14. Calm down everyone, the Albo ‘gaffe’ will be forgotten by tomorrow, what was everyone wringing their hands about a couple of weeks ago, oh, that’s right, the untimely death of a Labor Senator, don’t hear a thing about that anymore. (Don’t hear a thing about LNP gaffes anyway, mind!)

  15. Name the chairman of the Board of the coal company supplying the coal to Ukraine and paid for by the Morrison Liberal government ?

  16. if someone like Barnaby Joyce who is caretaker deputy prime minister , do not trust Morrison and knows Morrison’s truths mainly lies

    How can people vote for a rabble like the federal lib/nats

  17. Good lord. It was just a stupid gaffe, no more, no less. It provided a free kick and a morale boost to the government, took a lot of heat off of Schrodinger’s Education Minister, and was generally a poor start to the campaign. It’s the height of delusion to suggest this might end up a win for Albo. But as long as it doesn’t happen again, I think it’s extraordinarily unlikely that this is going to be on most people’s minds on polling day, or even two weeks from now.

  18. I just got robo-polled here in Sturt. First time in years. I was asked party preference, 2PP, PPM and how awesome I thought local Liberal MP James Stevens was. (Not so awesome as it turned out.)

  19. Labor need to be right on top of main economic data. Official unemployment is 4% but actual unemployment is higher. about double that because people doing 1 have per week don’t count as enemployed. Interest official rate 0.1% but already fixed bank loans are heading up to 3% and commentators, RBA are suggesting rate rises of 1 to 3% in next year or so. Etc. Labor need to put holes in lnp nonsense on economic matters.

  20. I find it easier when you just substitute greens ‘announcements’ to say :

    The Australian Greens have captured a unicorn fart worth 6.1 billion dollars! Let’s all sit around and smell its sweetness!

  21. I’m with you Bert……
    From the time the most recent Newspoll hit last night, there has been some weird and wonderful stuff going down here…
    To read some of the “disappointments” with the 53-47 lead Labor currently has ….mainly because it is not 56-44 or better – is hard to fathom…..
    And you would think the so-called “gaffe” today, was akin to suggesting Albo had failed his uni exams…whereas among many of the answers he had for his Pub Quiz night – from the Murdoch journo it must be noted – this one he did not get right…….

  22. the figures lapse is no big drama of itself, but its clear that the only effective campaign is going to be a viciously negative wedgy one from ScoMo… so the incumbency on Albo is to act and look competent and leaderlike. This isnt the ideal start, as any gaffe/clueless momentum in this environment will be hyperbolised – the price of it sticking could be high.

    that said, fronting up and taking ownership of it was a pretty cool play. Dont see that much from politicians these days, and if it makes him relatable then maybe even some good can come from it?

    he is a bit wooden for my liking – the sooner he relaxes into the role and looks more natural, the greater the comfort levels with him will rise. I for one think that’s the most important thing, if punters are comfortable with Albo then turfing ScoMo becomes a very easy leap (i’m sure the desire to do it is pretty high)

  23. Surely Albo could have some economics nerd on hand who has memorised all the numbers…

    Be that as it may, it’s a one day wonder.

  24. Paul says:
    Monday, April 11, 2022 at 6:40 pm
    Yes, BK
    liberal media more worried about trapping Albo – rather than getting down to nitty – gritty issues

    You mean like LNP ministers shagging members of their staff then giving the bill to the taxpayers?

  25. Some here were concerned that the media would not cover Albo’s subsequent taking of responsibility for the gaffe. Nine did show Albo owning up, and his comment that when he made a mistake, he would take responsibility for it, because “that’s what leaders do”. Can’t speak for other news outlets.

  26. and on this trangender sport wedge… well, the simplistic line coming from the right on this is at least very easy to understand

    if on the other side, one starts drawing equivalences between Caster Semenya and the US swimmer or British cyclist then it only descends into confusion and muddleness from there. Simple is best… but of course i suspect the ultimate simple “let anyone who considers herself a woman be allowed to compete as one” is neither anyone’s policy nor a politically tenable one even if it were?

  27. And to suggest, as someone has earlier, that Albo’s so-called gaffe was a morale booster for the government is laughable………Really? That is not to say Morrison will weave the pub-quiz night question into his attack on Albanese, but this is just politics…..Morrison is like Swiss Cheese, holes everywhere, soapy to feel and tasteless……………………

  28. Imagine a person returning from work who tunes into the Ch 7 news to see Riley savagely attacking Albo over not knowing some statistics today. That person has dropped by the supermarket where seemingly everything has gone up in price. If they drive to work, their petrol is still outrageously expensive and they haven’t had a pay rise for yonks. They know that their mortgage repayments will increase at some stage and wonder how they will cope.

    Sure, they may change their vote away fro Albo on the strength of Riley’s attack. On the other hand, they may decide that their personal financial predicament has something to do with Morrison abdicating any responsibility because “shit happens”.

  29. citizen @ #843 Monday, April 11th, 2022 – 6:50 pm

    Imagine a person returning from work who tunes into the Ch 7 news to see Riley savagely attacking Albo over not knowing some statistics today. That person has dropped by the supermarket where seemingly everything has gone up in price. If they drive to work, their petrol is still outrageously expensive and they haven’t had a pay rise for yonks. They know that their mortgage repayments will increase at some stage and wonder how they will cope.

    Sure, they may change their vote away fro Albo on the strength of Riley’s attack. On the other hand, they may decide that their personal financial predicament has something to do with Morrison abdicating any responsibility because “shit happens”.

    Or not.

  30. citizen,
    I’m so sick of these lazy “gotcha” questions.

    The average voter doesn’t care about the unemployment rate, they care if they (still) have a job.

    The average voter doesn’t care about the RBA cash rate, they care about if they can afford to pay their mortgage/rent.

    etc.

  31. Rex,
    A look back at the last three years may not be that flattering to scomo.
    Especially if Tingle decides to focus on Tudge rather than the unknown cash rate.

  32. Silly mistake by Albanese. These are the sorts of things that easily trip up leaders and have them recovering for days afterwards. Just ask Scott Morrison who routinely makes these mistakes because of laziness or zero care factor and it gets repeated ad nauseum in the media day and weeks later.

    Hopefully Labor can get back on track tomorrow and keep the focus on SfM.

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