Essential Research and Roy Morgan polls (and Resolve Strategic too)

One pollster moves closer to the pack by recording movement to Labor, while another remains consistent in projecting a Labor landslide.

Two new polls that have come down the chute overnight:

• Essential Research’s voting intention numbers, which will now be reportedly every fortnight, have Labor up three to 38%, the Coalition down two to 35%, the Greens steady on 9%, One Nation up one to 5%, the United Australia Party up one to 3% and undecided down two to 6%. The pollster’s “2PP+” measure has Labor up two to 49%, the Coalition down one to 45% and undecided down one to 6%. The poll also features the monthly leadership ratings, which have Scott Morrison down two on approval to 44% and up three on disapproval to 49%, whereas Anthony Albanese is up three on approval to 42% and steady on 39% disapproval. Morrison leads 40-35 on preferred prime minister, in from 42-34 a month ago. These results, together with breakdowns by state, age cohort, gender and more besides, can be found on the pollster’s website. I note that One Nation’s increase to their equal highest level for the past term is driven by a six-point increase in Queensland to 10%, though I’d want to see that repeated before reading anything into it.

The report in The Guardian features results from the survey’s attitudinal questions. Several of these relate to the particularly pertinent question of Australia’s relationship with China, and like just about everything else from these polls, the results are not encouraging for the government: 37% said they had more trust in Labor to manage the relationship compared with 28% for the Coalition and 34% for unsure. Sixty-one per cent regard the relationship as “a complex dynamic to be managed”, with only 26% preferring an alternative characterisation as “a threat to be confronted”.

The Essential poll was conducted online from Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1089. Further results from the poll, including the regular series on federal and state government COVID-19 management, will presumably be along with the full report later today.

• Also out is the latest fortnightly result from Roy Morgan, which seems to have introduced a longer delay between its field work and the release of the results for whatever reason. The latest numbers are even worse for the Coalition than the last: they are steady on 33% of the primary vote, with Labor up one to 38.5%, the Greens steady on 11.5%, One Nation up half to 4%, the United Australia Party down half to 1.5% and independents steady on 8%. The respondent-allocated two-party measure, which for this pollster at least is consistenly more favourable for Labor than the previous election preferences method would be, has Labor’s lead out from 56.5-43.6 to 57-43.

State two-party breakdowns are provided, showing Labor leading 59-41 in New South Wales (out from 54-46 for a swing of about 11.5%), 57.5-42.5 in Victoria (in from 59-41, a swing of about 4.5%), 51.5-48.5 in Queensland (unchanged, a swing of about 10%), 53.5-46.5 in Western Australia (in from 55.5-44.5, a swing of about 9%), 59.5-40.5 in South Australia (in from 64-36, a swing of about 9%) and 65-35 in Tasmania (out from 61.5-38.5, a swing of about 9%). The poll was conducted online and by phone from January 31 to February 13 from a sample of 2796.

I have updated the BludgerTrack poll (though I’m going to hold off updating the state-level trends for a bit for commercial reasons), which now shows Labor’s lead exceeding 56-44 and the two leaders’ net satisfaction ratings crossing paths, putting Albanese ahead for the first time since the onset of the pandemic. If that’s still not enough fresh content for you, note my newly published South Australian election guide and the introductory blog post and thread below, if you have any thoughts you would like to share concerning a campaign now officially in its first week.

UPDATE (Resolve Strategic): Now we have the monthly Resolve Strategic poll for the Age/Herald, which records the Coalition down one to 33%, Labor steady at 35%, the Greens down one to 10% and One Nation steady on 3%, independents down one to 10% and “others” up three to 9%.

Resolve Strategic doesn’t publish two-party numbers, but this comes out at a Labor lead of about 53-47 based on previous election preferences. The state breakdowns imply about 52-48 to Labor in New South Wales, 53.5-46.5 in Victoria and 50-50 in Queensland, for respective swings to Labor of about 4%, 0.5% and 8.5%. Contra Essential Research, One Nation is down four points in Queensland to 9%.

Scott Morrison’s personal ratings have significantly deteriorated, his approval down three to 38% and disapproval up six to 56%, while Anthony Albanese is respectively up two to 36% and up one to 42%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister has nonetheless widened slightly, from 38-31 to 39-30. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Sunday from a sample of 1604.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,572 comments on “Essential Research and Roy Morgan polls (and Resolve Strategic too)”

Comments Page 49 of 52
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  2. I cleaned that thread up so people could read it:

    Michael Weiss @michaeldweiss A Ukrainian intelligence source has passed along the following, which has already begun to trickle out in some form in the Ukrainian media:

    *All the usual caveats apply.* I cannot verify. But it is apparently based on human intelligence and concerns Russia’s play for Kyiv.

    As many as 2,000 Russian Special Forces are planning to seize either Sikorsky or Boryspil airport in the capital to prepare for the arrival of 10,000 paratroopers, IL-76 aircraft, light armored vehicles and airborne troops. The landing operation will be run by A-50 aircraft in the airspace of Belarus and Russia.

    Simultaneously, sabotage groups already in Ukraine will seek to take out power grids and substations to disconnect much of Kyiv from electricity and communications, causing panic among the population.

    This will coincide with a massive cyberattack on the authorities and other vital sites in Ukraine. Shortly preceding that, there will be an intensification at the fronts, with possible provocations along the entire border with Ukraine.

    The goal is to force the military-political leadership to withdraw the bulk of combat-ready troops to the line of defense, leaving only a small number of troops in Kyiv.

    The task of the landing party is to block Kyiv, communications, military control channels, capture/blow up arsenals, and sow panic. The Russians want to create conditions for “uncontrolled columns of refugees” from Kyiv, which will block highways and roads.

    That will hinder the movement of troops, including law enforcement agencies on the roads of Kyiv.

    The next phase will be to capture and control the main authorities including the General Staff, the Cabinet, the Verkhovna Rada, and retain them until the arrival of Russia’s main forces.

    The date of the operation is unknown, but is expected in the coming days, depending on the weather and the development of the international situation. The desired result is to seize the leadership of the Ukrainian state and force a peace agreement to be signed on Russian terms under conditions of blackmail.

    Even if much of the current leadership is evacuated, some pro-Russian politicians will be able to assume responsibility and sign documents, citing the “escape” of the leadership from Kyiv.

    The end-game, evidently, is to bisect Ukraine into two de facto states on the principle of East and West Germany or North and South Korea. And Kyiv will fall under Russia’s dominion.

  3. Time for an interlude from the madness of war. A reminder of what an utter utter utter bastard SfM is……………..

    “I became the roadkill of our Prime Minister, who sought a major distraction of the piling criticism in parliament that week,” Ms Holgate said…………….“Whatever the reason, I became the latest victim of cynical politics, the victim of complete failure of governance and standards,” Ms Holgate said.

    “And more than anything the victim of bullying and humiliation.

    “Even worse than that was the months of being silenced, the months of being threatened.”

    She said this happened on a national stage for a sustained period,
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/people/2022/02/25/christine-holgate-scott-morrison-roadkill/

  4. ”
    Rakalisays:
    Friday, February 25, 2022 at 5:11 pm
    Nolan Peterson
    @nolanwpeterson
    ·
    1h
    First light now showing in Kyiv. Long night of missile strikes, civilians seeking safety in bomb shelters. Reports of Russian tanks advancing on the city as Ukrainian forces fiercely resist. A European capital under siege in 2022. Not sure what else to say.
    ”

    ” European capital under siege in 2022. Not sure what else to say.
    ”

    This to say: And combined might of Europe and US could not stop it.
    The irony is that during Soviet Union days, when Warsaw pact existed, SU was afraid of NATO power. No more.

  5. Vale, lizzie. May kayjay have the coffee pot on for you. I thankyou for helping me to understand the journey ahead with my OH’s illness. You will be greatly missed.

    Puffy,
    It was Vera who loved cows. She and I started on PB together when the men dominated the board in numbers. She had a wicked sense of humour and fought the Big C as hard as she could. Of course it usually wins in the end.

  6. Watching France 24 it appears Russian helicopters are free to fly over Ukrainian cities, is this some form of truce?

    One would assume Ukrainian military has no shortage of hand held anti aircraft hardware & is holding off as the helicopters generally just do a fly by.

    What happens when the Russians fly aggressively, it won’t be one sided the way it was in Syria & wouldn’t be surprised if NATO were “invited” in to prevent civilian slaughter.

    EU / NATO won’t stand by the the way they did in Syria & the Balkans

  11. Reality is Ukraine isn’t in NATO, says Wallace

    The UK’s Defence Secretary Ben Wallace has been defending the UK’s refusal to support a no-fly zone being set up above Ukraine, pointing out the fact that the country isn’t a member of NATO.

    Speaking just now to the BBC, Wallace says “to do a no-fly zone, I would have to put British fighter jets directly against Russian fighter jets. NATO would have to effectively declare war on Russia. Because that’s what you would do”.

    “Despite Britain’s sponsorship and support for Ukraine going back to 2008, trying to help Ukraine into NATO, other nations didn’t want them to come in,” Wallace says.

  12. Rewi says: Friday, February 25, 2022 at 7:36 pm

    Reality is Ukraine isn’t in NATO, says Wallace
    The UK’s Defence Secretary Ben Wallace has been defending the UK’s refusal to support a no-fly zone being set up above Ukraine, pointing out the fact that the country isn’t a member of NATO.
    Speaking just now to the BBC, Wallace says “to do a no-fly zone, I would have to put British fighter jets directly against Russian fighter jets. NATO would have to effectively declare war on Russia. Because that’s what you would do”.
    “Despite Britain’s sponsorship and support for Ukraine going back to 2008, trying to help Ukraine into NATO, other nations didn’t want them to come in,” Wallace says.

    This is why so many of Russia’s neighbours want to join NATO.

  13. ”
    Soharsays:
    Friday, February 25, 2022 at 6:08 pm
    Ven,
    The reason I said Trump was another story is that he is too vile and weird to be lumped with the other presidents.
    ”

    Trump’s Republican Party, explained in one photo
    ” I’D rather be Russian than Democrat”

    https://www-vox-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.vox.com/platform/amp/policy-and-politics/2018/8/6/17656996/trump-republican-party-russia-rather-democrat-ohio?amp_js_v=a6&amp_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQKKAFQArABIIACAw%3D%3D#aoh=16457784558538&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.vox.com%2Fpolicy-and-politics%2F2018%2F8%2F6%2F17656996%2Ftrump-republican-party-russia-rather-democrat-ohio

  14. C@tmomma:

    Friday, February 25, 2022 at 2:22 pm

    [‘It’s amazing how deeply you can feel for someone you’ve never actually met in the flesh.’]

    Me too! My formative years, and, for that matter, adulthood, weren’t based in the digital era but nonetheless, these days one can build up vicarious relationships with someone you’ve never met or are likely to meet. Perhaps
    anonymity is the key? I will miss Lizzie’s matter-of-the-fact posts, in the absence of vitriol, her posts truncated by rheumatoid arthritis, her emphasis, not on herself, but entertaining others. Fare thee well, Lizzie.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7M8m4LyFSkE

  15. ‘RP says:
    Friday, February 25, 2022 at 6:11 pm

    Boerwar
    It overflowed into the outer container and then they measured it. Don’t worry I questioned it too but that her claim. Anyway they are stuck at home for a while, she has spoken to locals that have lived in the area for 60 years who’ve said that they haven’t seen anything like it. The images out of the Lockyer Valley are pretty scary.’
    —————————-
    I was not your doubting Thomas….

  16. bakunin

    I think we are on the same page. The thing with a dictator is that the Plan can be both unknowable and be changed any time the dictator likes.

    Apart from that I have posted several times that Putin’s modus operandi has two strands at least:
    1. frozen conflicts
    2. client states.

  17. Very late in catching up on things after a day offline.

    I’m so sorry to hear about Lizzie – a true class act

    I hope she is in a better place now

  19. ”
    Rewisays:
    Friday, February 25, 2022 at 7:36 pm
    Reality is Ukraine isn’t in NATO, says Wallace

    The UK’s Defence Secretary Ben Wallace has been defending the UK’s refusal to support a no-fly zone being set up above Ukraine, pointing out the fact that the country isn’t a member of NATO.

    Speaking just now to the BBC, Wallace says “to do a no-fly zone, I would have to put British fighter jets directly against Russian fighter jets. NATO would have to effectively declare war on Russia. Because that’s what you would do”.

    “Despite Britain’s sponsorship and support for Ukraine going back to 2008, trying to help Ukraine into NATO, other nations didn’t want them to come in,” Wallace says.
    ”

    Rewi
    Just a reminder.
    During the destruction Qaddafi regime and his capture, US provided No-fly-zone cover over Libya and Libya was/is not NATO member. When did it stop US/UK from providing No-fly-zone over areas because those countries were not NATO members?

  20. Ven says Friday, February 25, 2022 at 7:59 pm

    Just a reminder.
    During the destruction Qaddafi regime and his capture, US provided No-fly-zone cover over Libya and Libya was/is not NATO member. When did it stop US/UK from providing No-fly-zone over areas because those countries were not NATO members?

    Libya did not have the world’s largest stores of nuclear weapons.

  21. Ven at 7.59pm

    I suspect the main disincentive for US/UK/NATO imposing no-fly zones in Ukraine is that the Russians would be more likely to shoot down planes than the Libyan army/air force.

    Apparently the West is trying to block an invasion of Ukraine without cost to itself.

  22. bc at 8.03pm

    While Russia has the largest number of nuclear weapons in the world, I suspect she also has (by far) the lowest serviceability rate of said weapons.

  23. Really, Bludging, your latest catchword of “under reactionaries” is about as
    haughty as “lib-lins” – a line that even dear moderator marked you down.

  24. In relation to Ukraine the time to set up a no fly zone was before Putin started the War. Once Putin started the War, it was too late.
    BTW, do we have name for this War yet?

    The older NATO planes would probably be knocked out of the sky by the S400 missiles.

  25. Tony Windsor-
    ‘ Does anyone know the status of the John Howard uranium export agreement with Russia in 2007? Does it still exist?’

  26. Boerwar says Friday, February 25, 2022 at 8:07 pm

    In relation to Ukraine the time to set up a no fly zone was before Putin started the War. Once Putin started the War, it was too late.
    BTW, do we have name for this War yet?

    Nope, but I’m really hoping it will be called Putin’s Folly.

  29. Speaking just now to the BBC, Wallace says “to do a no-fly zone, I would have to put British fighter jets directly against Russian fighter jets. NATO would have to effectively declare war on Russia. Because that’s what you would do”.

    How is warning off Russian aircraft in Ukrainian airspace declaring water against Russia?
    The Russian aircraft have not been invited by the Ukrainian Gov. I still beige if the Russians use aircraft against Ukrainian civilians in particular the gloves will come off.

    Nato acted in the former Yugoslavia.. finally

  33. Snappy Tom:

    Friday, February 25, 2022 at 8:05 pm

    [‘While Russia has the largest number of nuclear weapons in the world, I suspect she also has (by far) the lowest serviceability rate of said weapons.’]

    You’re a man of the cloth, correct me if I’m wrong.

  37. Trump blocking $400 million of military aid to Ukraine in 2019 certainly takes on a new light now that Russia has full-scale invaded Ukraine, and Trump has praised Putin as a “genius” for it.

  38. Albo deftly sidesteps Morrison’s attempt to wedge Labor today over China:

    …Mr Morrison said China should join the international campaign to financially punish Russia rather than making excuses for its behaviour.

    “I am concerned that there is some suggestion in the comments made by the Chinese government that there is some sort of security pretext for the invasion that is taking place. There is none,” he said

    Labor Leader Anthony Albanese backed those calls, saying China needed to demonstrate it was “serious” about global peace.

    “China is doing the opposite of what it should be doing, and this is an opportunity for China to join with the rest of the world in condemning this action by Russia,” he said.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-02-25/scott-morrison-china-russia-ukraine-war-trade/100861030

  39. Boerwar
    I was the doubting Thomas. I did an experiment with my rain gauge, assuming they bought one the same and I believe they did as mine came from their old place then its far more likely that they got 260mm+, not the 1800 that she claimed to me. Whatever they got they are certainly stuck at home for a few days.

    When working in North Queensland many years ago at a mine out the back of Townsville we watched as a storm headed towards us that dropped 95mm in 45 minutes which is the most intense that I’ve personally witnessed so I was very dubious as to her claim but she was adamant about it. Anyway they have had claims from Higgins storm chasing of falls of over 500mm in the area so I’m glad that I’m not there. Meanwhile where I live we’ve had about 30 mm in the last 3 months and I wouldn’t mind a bit, had to put mains water in my rainwater tanks that feed the house for the first time but at least at the moment the river and lake are measuring about 350 ecu which is as low as I can remember.

  41. Ah, found it on Kevin Bonham’s Twitter.

    The Courier Mail is predictably spinning this as the LNP “closing the gap”, despite the fact that the primary and TTP results haven’t changed much from the polling done during 2020 election campaign or the actual 2020 result. Main difference is the LNP have picked up a couple percent on the primary vote from minor right-wing parties.

    Palaszczuk’s personal ratings have taken a bit of a hit, which I think is only to be expected considering everything that’s gone down as of late, but they are still well in the positive, with a majority of voters approving of both her performance in general and in relation to Covid.

    Thought the most interesting bit was that 49% of LNP voters apparently thought the state government had done a good job of managing the pandemic, with only 21% considering it “poor” or “very poor”!

    https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/qld-politics/lnp-closing-the-cap-on-labors-lead-in-the-polls-annastacia-palaszczuk-viewed-less-favourably/news-story/456de963cc25e13c2de2bc41a025a4f1

    (Not paywalled, in case anyone has the desire to subject themselves to the Courier Mail.)

  42. Quasar at 8:34 pm
    Trump also said Vlad wouldn’t have dare attack if he was still there. The ‘genius’ line gets all the headlines but the main part of the speech was about how it happened under Biden and would not have happened under him. His supporters would have lapped that message up .

  44. ‘RP says:
    Friday, February 25, 2022 at 8:37 pm

    Boerwar
    I was the doubting Thomas. I did an experiment with my rain gauge, assuming they bought one the same and I believe they did as mine came from their old place then its far more likely that they got 260mm+, not the 1800 that she claimed to me. Whatever they got they are certainly stuck at home for a few days.

    When working in North Queensland many years ago at a mine out the back of Townsville we watched as a storm headed towards us that dropped 95mm in 45 minutes which is the most intense that I’ve personally witnessed so I was very dubious as to her claim but she was adamant about it. Anyway they have had claims from Higgins storm chasing of falls of over 500mm in the area so I’m glad that I’m not there. Meanwhile where I live we’ve had about 30 mm in the last 3 months and I wouldn’t mind a bit, had to put mains water in my rainwater tanks that feed the house for the first time but at least at the moment the river and lake are measuring about 350 ecu which is as low as I can remember.’
    ————————————————–
    30mm in 3 months is not enough…

  45. ‘alfred venison says:
    Friday, February 25, 2022 at 8:30 pm

    how ’bout this, eh !

    The Japanese ambassador to Ukraine stayed in Kiev. His great-grandfather’s samurai sword and traditional armor was delivered to him from Tokyo, Japan. In a FB post, he declared that the samurai must protect the country in which he is! “Glory to Japan! Glory to Ukraine!”

    follow link below to a photo :-

    https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1496788626658807814

    what’s the japanese word for “pluck” ? -a.v.’
    —————————————–
    Tora Tora Tora.

  46. I join the outpouring of grief on hearing confirmation that we’ve lost the inspirational Lizzie/Zoe from these pages.
    Thanks to her son and Zoomster for letting us know – and the many others for their heartfelt tributes to her.

    When I heard the news I just turned to my partner and said “Lizzie’s died” – a strange familiarity but it felt like losing a friend.

    Kate/hairynose

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