Essential Research and Roy Morgan polls (and Resolve Strategic too)

One pollster moves closer to the pack by recording movement to Labor, while another remains consistent in projecting a Labor landslide.

Two new polls that have come down the chute overnight:

• Essential Research’s voting intention numbers, which will now be reportedly every fortnight, have Labor up three to 38%, the Coalition down two to 35%, the Greens steady on 9%, One Nation up one to 5%, the United Australia Party up one to 3% and undecided down two to 6%. The pollster’s “2PP+” measure has Labor up two to 49%, the Coalition down one to 45% and undecided down one to 6%. The poll also features the monthly leadership ratings, which have Scott Morrison down two on approval to 44% and up three on disapproval to 49%, whereas Anthony Albanese is up three on approval to 42% and steady on 39% disapproval. Morrison leads 40-35 on preferred prime minister, in from 42-34 a month ago. These results, together with breakdowns by state, age cohort, gender and more besides, can be found on the pollster’s website. I note that One Nation’s increase to their equal highest level for the past term is driven by a six-point increase in Queensland to 10%, though I’d want to see that repeated before reading anything into it.

The report in The Guardian features results from the survey’s attitudinal questions. Several of these relate to the particularly pertinent question of Australia’s relationship with China, and like just about everything else from these polls, the results are not encouraging for the government: 37% said they had more trust in Labor to manage the relationship compared with 28% for the Coalition and 34% for unsure. Sixty-one per cent regard the relationship as “a complex dynamic to be managed”, with only 26% preferring an alternative characterisation as “a threat to be confronted”.

The Essential poll was conducted online from Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1089. Further results from the poll, including the regular series on federal and state government COVID-19 management, will presumably be along with the full report later today.

• Also out is the latest fortnightly result from Roy Morgan, which seems to have introduced a longer delay between its field work and the release of the results for whatever reason. The latest numbers are even worse for the Coalition than the last: they are steady on 33% of the primary vote, with Labor up one to 38.5%, the Greens steady on 11.5%, One Nation up half to 4%, the United Australia Party down half to 1.5% and independents steady on 8%. The respondent-allocated two-party measure, which for this pollster at least is consistenly more favourable for Labor than the previous election preferences method would be, has Labor’s lead out from 56.5-43.6 to 57-43.

State two-party breakdowns are provided, showing Labor leading 59-41 in New South Wales (out from 54-46 for a swing of about 11.5%), 57.5-42.5 in Victoria (in from 59-41, a swing of about 4.5%), 51.5-48.5 in Queensland (unchanged, a swing of about 10%), 53.5-46.5 in Western Australia (in from 55.5-44.5, a swing of about 9%), 59.5-40.5 in South Australia (in from 64-36, a swing of about 9%) and 65-35 in Tasmania (out from 61.5-38.5, a swing of about 9%). The poll was conducted online and by phone from January 31 to February 13 from a sample of 2796.

I have updated the BludgerTrack poll (though I’m going to hold off updating the state-level trends for a bit for commercial reasons), which now shows Labor’s lead exceeding 56-44 and the two leaders’ net satisfaction ratings crossing paths, putting Albanese ahead for the first time since the onset of the pandemic. If that’s still not enough fresh content for you, note my newly published South Australian election guide and the introductory blog post and thread below, if you have any thoughts you would like to share concerning a campaign now officially in its first week.

UPDATE (Resolve Strategic): Now we have the monthly Resolve Strategic poll for the Age/Herald, which records the Coalition down one to 33%, Labor steady at 35%, the Greens down one to 10% and One Nation steady on 3%, independents down one to 10% and “others” up three to 9%.

Resolve Strategic doesn’t publish two-party numbers, but this comes out at a Labor lead of about 53-47 based on previous election preferences. The state breakdowns imply about 52-48 to Labor in New South Wales, 53.5-46.5 in Victoria and 50-50 in Queensland, for respective swings to Labor of about 4%, 0.5% and 8.5%. Contra Essential Research, One Nation is down four points in Queensland to 9%.

Scott Morrison’s personal ratings have significantly deteriorated, his approval down three to 38% and disapproval up six to 56%, while Anthony Albanese is respectively up two to 36% and up one to 42%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister has nonetheless widened slightly, from 38-31 to 39-30. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Sunday from a sample of 1604.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,572 comments on “Essential Research and Roy Morgan polls (and Resolve Strategic too)”

Comments Page 52 of 52
1 51 52

  1. Taylormade says:
    What did you think of the population growth and out of control development down this way? Not much countryside between Geelong and Torquay these days.
    All started with Coker when she was Mayor of the Surf Coast Shire Council.

    I don’t think a Mayor creates population growth, that aside, where in your world do you think people should live?

  2. i have Many ukrainian friends c@t. do you? i grew up among ukrainians, went to school with ukrainians, did you? i have ukrainian in-laws, do you? i go to ukrainian weddings, do you? let me tell you briefly about a ukrainian married couple i know in sydney. he’s ukrainian born of russian parents, she’s ukrainian born of jewish parents. do you know why they had to leave ukraine, c@t ? because of the fcuking Nazis ! everyone except arrogant ignorant ideologues knows ukraine has a nazi problem. you’re a disgusting slag c@t, go to hell ! -a v.

  3. alfred venison @ Saturday, February 26, 2022 at 8:20 am

    Bad show. No call for such language, irrespective of the rights and the wrongs of the matter.

  4. alfred venison says:
    Saturday, February 26, 2022 at 8:20 am

    i have Many ukrainian friends c@t. do you? i grew up among ukrainians, went to school with ukrainians, did you? i have ukrainian in-laws, do you? i go to ukrainian weddings, do you? let me tell you briefly about a ukrainian married couple i know in sydney. he’s ukrainian born of russian parents, she’s ukrainian born of jewish parents. do you know why they had to leave ukraine, c@t ? because of the fcuking Nazis ! everyone except arrogant ignorant ideologues knows ukraine has a nazi problem. you’re a disgusting slag c@t, go to hell ! -a v.

    So a country with democratically elected loader with Jewish heritage has a Nazi problem? The nonsense you read on the internet.

  5. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. It’s a monster!

    Peter Hartcher says that as the free world shrinks, Australia dithers on a critical project, namely resilience. He points out Australia’s vulnerabilities to trade disruption. Hartcher concluded by saying that if Morrison is “serious, sobered by the threats from Russia and China, he’ll drop the hysterical red-baiting of Labor and work responsibly on joint solutions. Enough complacency. We live in an age of consequences.”.
    Australia’s Asian community has grown significantly, and its votes will count. Playing the China card against Labor may not reward the PM if Chinese Australian voters see it as a slight against their own loyalty, opines George Megalogenis in this interesting contribution.
    From a China frenzy to casual transphobia, the PM is on the hunt for disaffected but highly motivated voters, says Katherine Murphy.
    Paul Bongiorno declares that Emperor Morrison has no clothes. He says the current situation recalls Peter Costello’s observation after the Howard government’s loss in 2007. He said no matter what Howard and the government announced or threw at Labor, it just didn’t work. Whatever else might be said about scare campaigns, the politicians running them need some credibility to cut through.
    John Hewson writes about the battle for the centre. He looks at the role of the media and points out that Sky News in particular has become simply a 24-hour advertisement for the Liberal Party. It has resorted to subliminal messaging, running a ticker across the bottom of the screen proclaiming ‘Each Way Albo’…
    Laura Tingle writes that Putin’s strike on Ukraine is testing the US and NATO – and a shocking reminder that tough talk doesn’t always work.
    The West has three options in response to the Ukraine invasion. Not one of them is good, explains Andrew McLeod.
    This is a war half a world away from Australia yet our stake in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion is immense because it is an assault on national sovereignty and the territorial integrity of a country of 44 million people – proof that brute power and military invasion remain the ultimate resort in global politics, writes Paul Kelly.
    Russia analyst, Bobo Lo, gives us six reasons why sanctions won’t bring Putin to heel.
    The Ukraine tragedy shows clearly that the West’s basic principles of democracy and self-determination are the right ones, declares the editorial in the SMH.
    We’re appalled by Putin now, but be clear: the west gave him the green light, argues Jonathan Freedland.
    In a matter of hours, the world order has turned drastically less favourable for the Western democracies, writes Ambrose Evans-Pritchard.
    Michelle Grattan tells us why Morrison will keep talking tough on the Ukraine conflict.
    As the Supreme Court is called on to settle preselection fights ahead of  the election, Scott Morrison is attempting to hold together the Liberal Party, writes Karen Middleton.
    According to Josh Butler, the Greens are targeting Queensland as its new battleground in its balance of power bid.
    Peter van Onselen believes that the baby boomer aged-care crisis is looming as a vote changer. He hopes that hope both major parties will make aged care the priority it deserves to be.
    If Australia does end up getting nuclear submarines through AUKUS, these powerful boats will have a most unlikely hero: Anthony Albanese. The Labor leader has come a long way, says Greg Sheridan.
    “Is Scott Morrison’s khaki election already over, or just ramping up?”, asks Harley Dennett.
    Vladimir Putin is no ranting Hitler nor monstrous Stalin, he is howling at the loss of the former Russian Empire and will do everything in his power to regain it, opines Tony Wright
    Australia’s anger at China has reached boiling point, with the government effectively accusing Beijing of aiding and abetting Russia’s invasion of Ukraine with a view to mounting an incursion into Taiwan.
    Scott Morrison and his ministers have strongly attacked China over its failure to denounce Russia’s invasion of Ukraine or to use its influence to press President Putin to pull back, reports Michelle Grattan.
    Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is putting the spotlight on an obscure part of the banking system that could act as a major financial weapon, says Clancy Yeates who explains what SWIFT is, and why the West fears cutting Russia off from the world’s banks.
    Ukrainian soldiers who died defending an island in the Black Sea from an air and sea bombardment reportedly told an officer on board a Russian navy warship to “go fuck yourself” when asked to surrender.
    The Dirty 33: meet the Russian cronies sanctioned by Australia.
    Is international law powerless against Russian aggression in Ukraine? No, but it’s complicated, explain these law academics for The Conversation.
    As the world watches in horror the Russian assault on Ukraine, it seems crass to discuss what it means for a little election in faraway Australia. But local political operators in the big parties and the small will be doing nothing else this weekend, writes Mark Sawyer.
    According to The Australian, Steven Marshall is in real danger of becoming a one-term premier as South Australian voters flock behind his opponent ahead of the March 19 state election. In a rare and alarming result for a serving premier, Labor leader Peter Malinauskas is trouncing Mr Marshall as preferred premier, leading him by a hefty 46 to 39 per cent margin. Mr Marshall also ­has a much higher dissatisfaction rating than his opponent at 47 per cent compared to 31 per cent for Mr Malinauskas. And the TPP is running at 53/47 in Labor’s favour.
    The SMH tells us about the rough week Perrottet has just had.
    Riccardo Bosi has been telling the anti-lockdown movement a bunch of hysterical, bloodthirsty bullshit for a while now, writes Tom Tanuki who says political vultures like Hanson are manipulating far-right protesters.,16092
    “Did Scott Morrison and Marise Payne drag Australia into a Chinese Communist Party power struggle that has seen senior security officials jailed, turning Beijing’s wrath from diplomatic chill to active trade sanctions and worse?”, asks Hamish McDonald.
    Supreme Court’s preselection ruling is a major blow to Scott Morrison and his NSW party-room allies, explains The New Daily.
    Ross Gittins begins this contribution calling for increased competition within Australia with, “Business has many tired ideas for reforming the economy and improving productivity, most of which boil down to: cut my tax and give me more power to keep my wage bill low. But a veteran econocrat has proposed a new and frightening reform: make our businesses compete harder for our custom, thus making it harder for them to raise their prices.”
    Dana Daniel writes that former Aged Care Royal Commissioner Lynelle Briggs says the report she co-authored warned the federal government about an impending staffing crisis in the sector and backed the case for a pay rise, as new polling shows most voters support military assistance in homes struggling to fill shifts. Briggs says military support is not the solution.
    Rick Morton reveals that secret documents show Dominic Perrottet’s office gave millions to a private project in the seat of a National Party defector, against advice and without the relevant department’s involvement.
    “Has the Sydney trains fiasco derailed David Elliott’s career for good?”, asks Michael McGowan. He says some of Elliott’s colleagues now agree with the opposition that he should go.
    A federal push to change the rules around class action lawsuits will make it more difficult for people to get justice from the courts, explains Kieran Pender.
    Alaxandra Smith reports that a vast majority of voters in NSW want masks to continue to be worn in shops and indoor public venues, but they do not want to be compelled to do so.
    Cameron Atfield tells us that Services Australia awarded a multimillion-dollar property contract to a close friend and associate of Morrison government cabinet member Stuart Robert at a time he was the minister responsible for the agency. ICAC NOW! This Stuart Robert guy is a shocker!
    And a fund established to help farmers fight nationally significant court cases will pay for some of the legal costs of a company part-owned by Angus Taylor to challenge a finding that it destroyed critically endangered grasslands.
    A federal watchdog has ended an investigation of a major union that counts senior Labor figure Bill Shorten among its former heads after finding there wasn’t enough evidence to prosecute its officials, reports Angus Thompson. Shorten has accused the government of using the cover of the Russian invasion of Ukraine to “quietly just drop everything because ‘of the absence of sufficient evidence’.”
    As the prison system faced the extraordinary risks associated with Covid-19, one state, NSW, gave its commissioner the power to release low-risk prisoners. He hasn’t used it once, writes Wendy Bacon.
    Nobody expected Daniel Andrews to dump his government’s latest $800 million Robin Hood policy after a few days. Insiders say he was left with little choice, writes Paul Sakkal.
    Mike Cannon-Brookes’ audacious bid to takeover AGL signals the next, more aggressive, chapter in the evolution of activist investing, writes Charlotte Grieve.
    Saul Griffith prosecutes the case for buying AGL.
    In good environmental news, a previously endangered species is making a miraculous comeback with populations of West coast and East coast humpback whales likely rebounding to near pre-whaling levels.
    Ben Doherty reports on yesterday’s proceedings in the Ben Roberts-Smith defamation trial.
    Outgoing ACCC chair Rod Sims says the government must consider using its powers under the media bargaining code to force Facebook to negotiate with SBS and The Conversation.
    It is a race against time to keep the Probuild platform in one piece, as stalled projects and the company’s own 750-strong staff become targets for opportunistic rivals, explains the AFR.
    From long COVID to Alzheimer’s, all manner of health woes are increasingly thought to have one thing in common: inflammation. But there’s an ongoing mystery: why does it go rogue in some people and not others? Great medical minds are on the case, writes Greg Callaghan in this feature article.
    Piers Morgan’s global talk show is weeks away from launching but the British commentator was already handing out voting advice when he jetted in for Sky News Australia’s 25th anniversary party at the Sydney Opera House, writes Amanda Meade in her weekly media roundup.
    Smiling on his way to the bank, Harvey Norman boss Gerry Harvey has warned prices on furniture and consumer electronics are rising by as much as 30 per cent across the board, as inflationary pressures ramp up at the country’s major retailers.
    Robert Reich proclaims that only the right has become more extreme over the last 50 years.
    Anna Patty tells us how an Australian expat may help topple a British Prime Minister.
    More Republicans have a negative view of Joe Biden than of Vladimir Putin and more Democrats have a negative view of Donald Trump than of the Russian leader, according to a new poll. America is stuffed!

    Cartoon Corner

    David Pope

    David Rowe

    Dionne Gain

    Andrew Dyson

    Matt Davidson

    John Shakespeare

    Matt Golding

    Alan Moir

    Simon Letch

    Jim Pavlidis

    Jon Kudelka

    Glen Le Lievre

    Richard Giliberto


    From the US

  6. If Australia does end up getting nuclear submarines through AUKUS, these powerful boats will have a most unlikely hero: Anthony Albanese. The Labor leader has come a long way, says Greg Sheridan.

    OMG ! From Sheridan ! That points to Rupes has ‘picked the winner’ in the horse race and it ain’t Scotty from Marketing.

  7. Insiders Sunday, 27 Feb

    David Speers joins David Crowe, Bridget Brennan and Cameron Stewart to discuss Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the latest developments, assess the effectiveness of the West’s response and analyse political implications at home.

    Guest : Penny Wong – Shadow Foreign Minister

  8. Victorian COVID-19 hospitalisations at 281 as 15 deaths and 5,874 cases reported

    Victoria has reported a further 15 COVID-19 deaths, as eased restrictions come into place on masks and working from home.

    There are 281 COVID-19 patients in Victorian hospitals, an decrease on the 301 reported on Friday.

    There are 43 patients in ICU, five of whom are on ventilators.

    The state has recorded 5,874 new cases, taking the total number of active infections to 40,968.

  9. Vladimir Putin to face personal sanctions from Australia, as it plans to join international punishment

    Australia will level punishing financial sanctions against eight Russian oligarchs within Russian President Vladimir Putin’s circle, and 339 members of the Russian parliament, as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues.

    Foreign Minister Marise Payne said the oligarchs were mainly key banking figures who “have amassed great wealth through their positions of power”.

    Senator Payne said Australia also plans to join with the United States, United Kingdom and European Union in imposing sanctions on Russian President Vladimir Putin and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.

    The government is seeking advice from the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade on exactly how to do it, as sanctioning a world leader is a rare and serious move.

    “It is an exceptional step to sanction leaders but this is an exceptional situation.

  10. Vale lizzie. She was one of a handful who welcomed me to “the lounge” when I first stumbled across this place 10 years ago. I found myself looking for her posts each morning and her short critiques of daily events. Most of us are hard to distinguish from the herd. Not so lizzie. I miss her already.

    And vale Zoe. My condolences to all who knew her.

  11. The word “resilience” has me taking a quick detour into language usage. The way “efficiency” is bandied about as being a good thing, eliminating waste as it does, glosses over the resilience that it replaces. Put another way, if we have multiple ways of getting a result, and we use them all then that’s inefficient, but it’s also resilient.

  12. Late Riser
    Lean manufacturing seeks to minimise lead times and inventories, with systems set up to ensure continuity of minimum stock levels to cater for the existing circumstances and capabilities. In the event of changing, though expected to be temporary circumstances, additional, but separately allocated, safety stock is introduced, with the expectation that it will be run down as circumstances return to the previous level.
    Blind faith always leads to tears.

  13. Thank you, BK. Would you mind putting the Dawn Patrol up on the new thread as well please? I get through monster patrols by referring back to articles throughout the day. Cheers. 🙂

  14. Just caught up on the sad news re Lizzie. To me she came across as always interested and interesting and I will miss her positivity. It brings to mind a saying my Grandma used to use.
    “Happy the bride the sun shines on, at rest the soul it rains upon.”
    I belief it is pouring rain so her passing has been noted.

    Was polled by Youcomms on Friday
    Seat of Canning
    If election today who would I vote for,
    Likely chance I would change vote
    How favourably do I view Hastie
    How favourably do I view Hunt
    Preferred PM

    Now I will start reading today’s contributions. The three hour time lag with the East makes keeping current with the thread particularly challenging first thing in the morning.

Comments Page 52 of 52
1 51 52

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *