Ends and odds

Recent matters to report that aren’t state poll results.

It’s been a big couple of days for state opinion polls: a shock Newspoll from South Australia three weeks out from the election, a YouGov poll showing Labor still in front in Queensland, and a Resolve Strategic finding that Labor is back in the game in New South Wales. As well as all that, I can offer the following summary of miscellaneous developments to hang a new open thread off:

• The Age/Herald has related that the small sample of 170 Western Australian respondents from the recent Resolve Strategic poll had 64% supporting Mark McGowan’s decision to scrap the originally proposed date of February 5 for reopening the state’s border, with only 32% opposed. This compares with 39% and 47% respectively from the national sample of 1604.

• The Liberal National Party candidate for the Labor-held marginal seat of Lilley in Brisbane, Ryan Shaw, has announced his withdrawal. Shaw is an army veteran who served in East Timor and Afghanistan, and said he had made the decision to focus on his mental health.

• Lara Alexander will become one of the three Liberal members for Bass in the Tasmanian state parliament after winning the recount to succeed Sarah Courtney. This involved counting the ballots that elected Courtney at the election last May, which found Alexander prevailing over rival Liberal candidate Simon Wood by 5671 votes (52.9%) to 5051 (47.1%).

• The Poll Bludger, individually and collectively, was greatly saddened to hear of the death of Zoe Wilson, a.k.a. Lizzie, an unfailingly civil contributor to the forum of long standing, as was related yesterday in comments by Zoomster.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

947 comments on “Ends and odds”

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  2. Wivenhoe has topped 180% with Somerset spilling and the Stanley river at major flood level. This could get ugly. And it’s pissing down outside again.

  3. Thanks, LR, you too.

    It’s just a garage causing trouble for us, we are halfway up the hill from a bursting Norman Creek.

  4. “Wivenhoe has topped 180% with Somerset spilling and the Stanley river at major flood level. This could get ugly. And it’s pissing down outside again.”

    I remember youth camp as Somerset damn. A lovely place.

  5. @ shellbell et al
    Finally the rain has let up here in the western suburbs of Brisbane. My suburb, built around Enoggera Ck, has had over 900 mm- yes, 900mm+ this week.
    The water level is starting to drop. The suburb is isolated from the rest of Brisbane by flood water and landslides. The level in my backyard got to just over a metre under the 1974 flood.
    This deluge has taken everyone by surprise. It was never supposed to last 5 days.
    The Enoggera Dam got to 150% of capacity and for the first time, actually topped the sluice wall and very quickly the water level went up by 1.5 m downstream as it increased the amount of water flowing out of the dam.
    There were real fears for the dam wall but it has stood strong. If it broke, the damage and loss of life would have been a disaster.
    The rain has started up again as I write. We have been recording falls in excess of 80mm per hour.
    This has been an amazing experience. Best wishes to all our Brisbane PBers.

  6. Re BB @9:13

    ”Remember when the Gillard government set up a levy on high-end taxpayers to fund the response to the last big Queensland floods? Government “interference” was labelled as “un-Australian”.”

    I’m unimpressed by the “charity work” of our oligarchs. Everyone would be better off if they just paid their bloody tax (well, everyone except them maybe).

    ” Meanwhile, $4.8 billion languishes in the Commonwealth Disaster Fund, earning interest.”

    That’s needed to buy votes.

  7. It really is pissing down on the Goldie at this moment. I wish those thus affected the very best, hoping they’ve read & understand the small print.

  9. Somerset damn at over 150% capacity, probably isn’t great.

    Although the swimming pool I stood beside and poured out more than 3 hours of teenage angst seems to still be there but upgraded if one believes google maps.

  12. Labor ahead as both leaders lift approval
    Labor has preserved its commanding electoral lead over the ­Coalition with fewer than 90 days before the federal election.

  14. Newspoll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 45 (0) ALP 55 (0)

    Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 35 (+1) ALP 41 (0) GRN 9 (+1) UAP 4 ON 3 (0)

  16. It’s been chucking it down on the Central Coast of NSW for the last week and it’s going to continue for the next week as well. 5 days? You could see the muddy bottom of our dam before La Nina started last summer and continued this summer. We’re now at ~90% Luckily we built a pipeline to Newcastle during the last drought to take water from them. It can go the other way as well and probably will before too long as we get near to 100% capacity for both our dams, Mardi and Mangrove Mountain.

  26. #Newspoll Morrison: Approve 43 (+3) Disapprove 55 (-1) #auspol
    #Newspoll Albanese: Approve 44 (+4) Disapprove 43 (-3) #auspol

    #Newspoll Preferred PM: Morrison 42 (-1) Albanese 40 (+2) #auspol

  37. Albanese playing the long game. He was up here on the Central Coast yesterday and he talked about Health. Not the war, that’s for sure. Only replied to a question about the war if asked.

  45. Another good Newspoll. Strong and steady. Labor is in a much stronger position than at the comparable point in the 2019 election cycle.

  46. Earlier today in Queensland, Morrison said he couldn’t understand the critisism of Dutton’s go-fund-me operation for flood victims.

    If Morrison was well informed of the critisism, that suggests to me a degree of coordination. I reckon it was cooked up in campaign headquarters to try to soften Dutton’s image as an arsehole. Another campaign failure, they are stuffed irrespective of when they hold the election.

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