Ends and odds

Recent matters to report that aren’t state poll results.

It’s been a big couple of days for state opinion polls: a shock Newspoll from South Australia three weeks out from the election, a YouGov poll showing Labor still in front in Queensland, and a Resolve Strategic finding that Labor is back in the game in New South Wales. As well as all that, I can offer the following summary of miscellaneous developments to hang a new open thread off:

• The Age/Herald has related that the small sample of 170 Western Australian respondents from the recent Resolve Strategic poll had 64% supporting Mark McGowan’s decision to scrap the originally proposed date of February 5 for reopening the state’s border, with only 32% opposed. This compares with 39% and 47% respectively from the national sample of 1604.

• The Liberal National Party candidate for the Labor-held marginal seat of Lilley in Brisbane, Ryan Shaw, has announced his withdrawal. Shaw is an army veteran who served in East Timor and Afghanistan, and said he had made the decision to focus on his mental health.

• Lara Alexander will become one of the three Liberal members for Bass in the Tasmanian state parliament after winning the recount to succeed Sarah Courtney. This involved counting the ballots that elected Courtney at the election last May, which found Alexander prevailing over rival Liberal candidate Simon Wood by 5671 votes (52.9%) to 5051 (47.1%).

• The Poll Bludger, individually and collectively, was greatly saddened to hear of the death of Zoe Wilson, a.k.a. Lizzie, an unfailingly civil contributor to the forum of long standing, as was related yesterday in comments by Zoomster.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

947 comments on “Ends and odds”

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  1. From the previous thread:

    in return may i offer you this piece from geohistory dot today discussing ukraine’s neo-nazi problem :- https://geohistory.today/azov-movement-ukraine/ a.v.

    And let me see your Ukrainian ‘nazi problem’ and raise you Russia’s much, much larger Neo Nazi problem:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_National_Unity

    Good to know you continue to push the Russian line, alfred venison:

    Promoting the notion of “Russia for Russians and compatriots”, members of the party (sometimes called Barkashovites) endorse policies including the expulsion of minorities that “have their homeland outside Russia”, especially Jews and migrants from the South Caucasus such as Azeri, Georgians and Armenians as well Central Asian nationalities such as Kazakhs, Uzbeks, Tajiks, and others. Their vision of Russia is divided into privileged ethnic Russians and “compatriots”, i.e. non-Russians who live in Russia and have their national homeland there, including indigenous populations of Russian Far East, North, Turkic and some other minorities. While they consider these “compatriots” to be entitled to live in Russia, the RNU nonetheless condemns any inter-ethnic and inter-racial marriages, claiming that “they create psychological troubles of self-identification for children from such marriages”

    Really good to know that you are supporting the government of White Russian Supremacy and Anti Semitism.

    Also, parroting the Russian government line:

    MOSCOW, February 25. /TASS/. The current Kiev authorities are being controlled by Western states led by the US, and by proponents of neo-Nazism, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said at a press conference Friday.

    https://tass.com/politics/1411139

    You do it subtly, alfred venison, but you do it nonetheless.

  2. Confessions,
    Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson is a superb choice for the SCOTUS. And she is going to be there for life as one in the eye of the White Nationalist crowd. She is eminently qualified and a former Clerk at SCOTUS for Stephen Breyer himself, iirc. 🙂

  3. Not only has the UEFA Cup taken the Final away from Russia, now Eurovision has kicked Russia out of the competition! That one is gonna hurt! 😆

  4. This is the sort of stuff that will really hit Putin where it hurts:

    It wasn’t the only blow to come on Friday on the football field.

    Manchester United withdrew Russian airline Aeroflot’s sponsorship rights. The Russian carrier was banned from British skies on Thursday under new sanctions announced by Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

    The UK’s Civil Aviation Authority said it had suspended Aeroflot’s foreign carrier permit.

    German soccer club Schalke 04 have had a 15-year partnership with Gazprom but said they were removing the firm’s logo from their jersey while Matthias Warnig, chief executive of Nord Stream 2 AG, vacated his position on the club’s board of directors. Nord Stream 2 AG is owned by Gazprom.

    The men’s tennis governing body said next week’s ATP Challenger event in Moscow will not take place as scheduled due to concerns over player safety and uncertainty related to international travel.

    “The security of players will remain our top priority in assessing the scheduling of subsequent ATP Tour and ATP Challenger Tour events in the region. We continue to monitor the situation,” the ATP said in a statement.

    ‘I should not go’
    Athletes from a number of sports also voiced their concerns about travelling to Russia.

    Four-time Formula One champion Sebastian Vettel said he will not take part in September’s grand prix in Sochi, adding it was “wrong” to race in Russia. World champion Max Verstappen agreed with him.

    The grand prix has since been canned, with organisers saying on Friday it would be “impossible” to hold the race in Sochi under the current circumstances.

    https://www.smh.com.au/sport/innocent-people-are-losing-their-lives-from-soccer-to-f1-russia-stands-to-lose-after-invasion-20220225-p59zl6.html

    Bravo sporting world!

  5. “Not only has the UEFA Cup taken the Final away from Russia, now Eurovision has kicked Russia out of the competition! That one is gonna hurt!”

    Sorry Catcrank, I think you mean the Champion’s League Final.

  6. The rain doesn’t look like stopping here in SEQ but seeing the state poll result reported above is a bright start to the day. The Staunchly pro LNP Courier Mail has been carrying out another vociferous anti ALP crusade in its pages of late in concert with its” boofheaded” parliamentary wing, the LNP, to no effect. I have been wondering if the timing of this increasingly WtF campaign ( former deputy Premier Jackie Trad who lost her seat more than a year ago and has gone to ground featured last week in some nebulous claim that must have seemed earth shattering to the reporter and editor) is to do with decreasing the influence of the popular Premier Anastacia in the upcoming federal poll?

  7. Prince planet,
    Yep.

    I’m waiting for the inevitable attack on Albanese that he’s been in politics too long… because they can’t dig any dirt up on him. 😉

    Oh, and it’s been chucking buckets down here in the Temperate Rainforest on the Central Coast of NSW and isn’t expected to stop for more than 7 days. Apparently a High in NZ is directing warm, wet air over the East Coast of Australia. Damn Kiwis! 😀

  8. “Oh, and it’s been chucking buckets down here in the Temperate Rainforest on the Central Coast of NSW” FWIW 80k or so north there has been very little precipitation, less than 20mm over the last week. Thanks I guess to the gap in the great dividing range that is the Hunter Valley.

    Vale Lizzie, sad news.

  9. Cyber War, not one way

    Meanwhile, Russia Today, the state-backed news service, confirmed its website had been hit by a cyber-attack after a Twitter account linked to the Anonymous hacker collective declared “cyber war” against the Russian government.

    The organisation said it had been subjected to “massive” distributed denial of service (DDoS) attacks, which render sites unreachable by bombarding them with spurious requests for information. It came as a Twitter account linked to Anonymous, @YourAnonOne, said the group was at war with the Kremlin.

    Russia Today said: “After the statement by Anonymous, RT’s websites became the subject of massive DDoS attacks from some 100 million devices, mostly based in the US. Due to the attacks there might be temporary website access limitations for some users, yet RT is promptly resolving these issues.”

  10. Morning all. I note the discussion of neo-nazism in Ukraine and Russia. While it is sadly true there are neo-nazi groups in every western country (including Australia) and all the former communist countries, the problem is larger in the latter.

    Neo-nazis appeal to poorly educated young men who are struggling for work, and there are lots of those in eastern Europe, although it varies by country. Yes there are neo-nazis in Ukraine (the Azov movement), but far more in Russia. Has everyone forgotten the roving gangs who bashed LGBTIQ people during the last World Cup?

    More importantly, the big difference is that in most countries the government and police are fighting against neo-nazis. Not Russia. They are given free reign there, if not encouraged. See this German article where the Germans realised the organisers of neo-nazi groups in the former east were trained in Russia. Putin has found them a useful tool in the Donbass. We can see how that has turned out.
    https://www.dw.com/en/german-neo-nazis-trained-at-russian-camps-report/a-53692907

  11. Damn Putin sounds like Trump, the world is at a dangerous place as unhinged leaders play to ignorance and divide and conquer.

    The amount of support for Russia from the right / Republican party is scary.

    What Russia is doing can not be defended as what Trump did to the US, there are times when sides need to be taken and this is one of them.

    Commentator Phil ? on the ABC hit the nail on the head NATO needed to support the Ukraine militarily, Russia / Putin has done what the want.

    Also highlights the need to strengthen NATO – watch those who criticise it such as Trump and others.

  12. alfred venison @ #NaN Saturday, February 26th, 2022 – 9:04 am

    hey Griff : when you’re called an anti-semite by an ignoanus then you can lecture me about language. -a.v.

    I said you pushing the Russian line about Nazis in Ukraine, which implies your support for the ‘Denazification’ pretext of Putin, plus your failure to condemn the greater presence of Neo Nazis in Russia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_National_Unity) and thus implied support of them and their Anti Semitic stance, is all on you.

  13. alfred venison @ #14 Saturday, February 26th, 2022 – 8:03 am

    i have Many ukrainian friends c@t. do you? i grew up among ukrainians, went to school with ukrainians, did you? i have ukrainian in-laws, do you? i go to ukrainian weddings, do you? let me tell you briefly about a ukrainian married couple i know in sydney. he’s ukrainian born of russian parents, she’s ukrainian born of jewish parents. do you know why they had to leave ukraine, c@t ? because of the fcuking Nazis ! everyone except arrogant ignorant ideologues knows ukraine has a nazi problem. you’re a disgusting slag c@t, go to hell ! -a v.

    Hopefully that name calling will see you gone a.v.

  14. Insiders Sunday, 27 Feb

    David Speers joins David Crowe, Bridget Brennan and Cameron Stewart to discuss Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the latest developments, assess the effectiveness of the West’s response and analyse political implications at home.

    Guest : Penny Wong – Shadow Foreign Minister

  15. alfred venison says:
    Saturday, February 26, 2022 at 9:08 am
    frednk : “zelensky is jewish so his country can’t possibly have a nazi problem” is a stupid argument. -a.v.

    There is definitely a minority neo Nazi nationalist movement in the Ukrainian, along with a Putin supported one in Russia & the Republican wing in the US

  16. Victorian COVID-19 hospitalisations at 281 as 15 deaths and 5,874 cases reported

    Victoria has reported a further 15 COVID-19 deaths, as eased restrictions come into place on masks and working from home.

    There are 281 COVID-19 patients in Victorian hospitals, an decrease on the 301 reported on Friday.

    There are 43 patients in ICU, five of whom are on ventilators.

    The state has recorded 5,874 new cases, taking the total number of active infections to 40,968.

  17. Mike Cannon-Brookes ‍@mcannonbrookes · 1hA reminder as petrol, gas & coal prices soar due to a horrible war… the price of the sunshine & wind powering 30% of our grid & all our electric vehicles… hasn’t changed.

    It’s still a $0 cost input.

    Energy independence comes from renewable abundance.

  18. i have Many ukrainian friends c@t. do you?

    Yes.

    i grew up among ukrainians, went to school with ukrainians, did you?

    Yes.

    i have ukrainian in-laws, do you?

    No.

    i go to ukrainian weddings, do you?

    No.

    let me tell you briefly about a ukrainian married couple i know in sydney. he’s ukrainian born of russian parents, she’s ukrainian born of jewish parents. do you know why they had to leave ukraine, c@t ? because of the fcuking Nazis ! everyone except arrogant ignorant ideologues knows ukraine has a nazi problem.

    Just as well they didn’t decide to live in Russia.

    everyone except arrogant ignorant ideologues knows ukraine has a nazi problem.

    Just as well the Ukrainian government want to do something about it. However, I detect a wrinkle in your rabid argument, alfred venison. Did your friends leave Ukraine when it was under the control of the Russian puppet, Viktor Yanykovich by any chance?

    you’re a disgusting slag c@t, go to hell !

    There, there, temper, temper, alfred venison. Try playing the ball, not the (wo)man, eh? 🙂

  19. alfred venison @ Saturday, February 26, 2022 at 9:04 am

    As you have responded on this thread, I shall respond. To make myself clear, there is no call for such language, irrespective of the rights and wrongs. Bad show.


  20. alfred venison says:
    Saturday, February 26, 2022 at 9:08 am

    frednk : “zelensky is jewish so his country can’t possibly have a nazi problem” is a stupid argument. -a.v

    As he was democratically elected it would indicate the country does not have a problem and is certainly not a justification for Putin to invade the country. Socrates has gone to the effort to write a detailed piece on the issue, you would do well to read it instead of making a fool of yourself. Calling people names does not extend your argument.

  21. Holdenhillbilly @ #NaN Saturday, February 26th, 2022 – 9:15 am

    Mike Cannon-Brookes ‍@mcannonbrookes · 1hA reminder as petrol, gas & coal prices soar due to a horrible war… the price of the sunshine & wind powering 30% of our grid & all our electric vehicles… hasn’t changed.

    It’s still a $0 cost input.

    Energy independence comes from renewable abundance.

    Another reason Scott Morrison attacking Mike Cannon-Brookes but decrying the Russian invasion of Ukraine isn’t gelling. We’re not stupid, we can see that the way out of Putin’s grip is to slip the fossil fuel bonds.

  22. I often disagree with a.v’s posts on Ukraine.
    In particular I do not like his systematic West-bagging in the absence of systematic Putin bagging. In my view it is a lack of balance thing.
    The balance would come out something like: Ukraine has significant issues with neo-Nazis. Russia has significant issues with neo-Nazis. Ukraine neo-Nazis cannot be a reasonable casus belli for Putin.

    Beyond that, to what extent is the West ethically-compromised in its dealing with Ukraine because of the neo-Nazis? (See Trump’s dealings with Russia and Ukraine!)
    To what extent is this also a reflection of the neo-Nazi problem in the US – aka large elements of the Republican Party?

    The accusation that a.v is anti-semitic is gross. The false accusation says far more about the accuser than it does anything else. IMO, av is one of the more learned bludgers. So I do hope he stays.

    Since we are outing our Ukraine connections, I have two second cousins who are of Ukrainian descent.

  23. Poroti
    “Re the electric cars. What is the expected life of the batteries ? Their replacement wouldn’t be cheap.”

    Battery life, like EV range and performance, is improving rapidly. It was not great on old Leafs but these days they give you an 8 year guarantee. Teslas will last at least 10+. In other countries with more developed EV markets, firms have evolved that replace second hand EV batteries, but not in Australia yet.

    Also the battery does not just “fail”. It gradually reduces in life. Even after 20 years, you will still have over half the range. Pick a long ranged EV (Tesla 3, Hyundai Kona, Ioniq 5, post 2018 Nissan Leaf) and you will be fine.
    https://www.carsales.com.au/editorial/details/advice-how-long-will-my-electric-cars-battery-last-119097/

  24. Re the ‘Anonymous’ cyber hackers declaring war on Putin…

    Good to see Russian propaganda sites compromised.

    I have a question for anyone with sufficient cyber knowledge: could ‘Anonymous’ disrupt/harm the ability of the Russian invading forces to function?

  25. The accusation that a.v is anti-semitic is gross. The false accusation says far more about the accuser than it does anything else. IMO, av is one of the more learned bludgers. So I do hope he stays.

    And this is where your defense of alfred venison goes off the rails, Boerwar. I simply pointed out that alfred venison has vociferously denounced Ukrainian Neo Nazis but been silent on the far worse problem of the Neo Nazis in Putin’s Russia. This is their stated position:

    Promoting the notion of “Russia for Russians and compatriots”, members of the party (sometimes called Barkashovites) endorse policies including the expulsion of minorities that “have their homeland outside Russia”, especially Jews and migrants from the South Caucasus such as Azeri, Georgians and Armenians as well Central Asian nationalities such as Kazakhs, Uzbeks, Tajiks, and others.

    Now, until such time as alfred venison comes out and denounces them as well, then he is being equivocal and you have to conclude his support for Putin’s aims is because he wants Ukraine and its Neo Nazis crushed, but it also implies, therefore, support for the Russian group and it’s aims. As they are firm supporters of Vladimir Putin.

    Also I note that you have not condemned the uncalled for abuse that alfred venison directed at me. Noted.

  26. The party of Trump is fearful of left-wing influence in the Supreme Court. How sad!

    Biden makes history with Supreme Court pick
    Ketanji Brown Jackson becomes first black woman nominated for US Supreme Court amid Republican fears of new left-wing agenda.
    (Oz headline)

  27. Holdenhillbilly @ #NaN Saturday, February 26th, 2022 – 9:15 am

    ” Mike Cannon-Brookes ‍@mcannonbrookes · 1hA reminder as petrol, gas & coal prices soar due to a horrible war… the price of the sunshine & wind powering 30% of our grid & all our electric vehicles… hasn’t changed.

    It’s still a $0 cost input.

    Energy independence comes from renewable abundance.”

    Cat, HH

    This is an excellent point, and damning of the Morrison government’s refusal to embrace EVs. We were spending over $30 billion a year on importing fuel BEFORE the recent price hikes (2019 data).

    Fuel and energy security is one of the Morrison government’s biggest failures:
    – no EV policy
    – no petrol diesel emission/fuel consumption policy
    – no strategic fuel reserve in Australia, contrary to IEA rules
    – transport investment focused on roads not public transport (so few people have a good alternative to driving)
    – energy investment focused on gas, locking in the most costly power generation option

    Morrison has sold out Australia to oil and gas companies since day one in office. Now we will all pay for it.

  28. Snappy Tom @ #40 Saturday, February 26th, 2022 – 8:31 am

    Re the ‘Anonymous’ cyber hackers declaring war on Putin…

    Good to see Russian propaganda sites compromised.

    I have a question for anyone with sufficient cyber knowledge: could ‘Anonymous’ disrupt/harm the ability of the Russian invading forces to function?

    I’d say they are probably having a red hot go

  29. From Dawn Patrol on the old thread, worth a look:

    Peter Hartcher says that as the free world shrinks, Australia dithers on a critical project, namely resilience. He points out Australia’s vulnerabilities to trade disruption. Hartcher concluded by saying that if Morrison is “serious, sobered by the threats from Russia and China, he’ll drop the hysterical red-baiting of Labor and work responsibly on joint solutions. Enough complacency. We live in an age of consequences.”.

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/as-the-free-world-shrinks-australia-dithers-on-a-critical-project-resilience-20220224-p59zj9.html

  30. Ukraine and Russia discuss plans to meet

    Ukraine and Russia are discussing a place and time for talks, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s spokesman said on social media on Friday.

    “Ukraine was and remains ready to talk about a ceasefire and peace,” spokesman Sergii Nykyforov said.

    Earlier Moscow offered to hold talks with Ukraine in Minsk, the Belarusian capital, which US State Department spokesperson Ned Price said was an attempt to conduct diplomacy “at the barrel of a gun”. He said Russia must stop its bombing if it is serious about diplomacy.

    Russia had attempted to engage in “a pretence of diplomacy” even as it prepared to invade Ukraine this week, Price said.

    Reuters

    Baby steps or a pretence to get President Zelensky out of Kyiv so that Putin can take the capital while he is away?

  31. To be fair C@tmomma, while you did not say a.v. was an anti-semite, you did say

    “Really good to know that you are supporting the government of White Russian Supremacy and Anti Semitism.”

    You used a quote from a wikipedia article on Russian National Unity (RNU) and falsely conflated RNU views with the Russian government.

    Not great.

  32. Vladimir Putin to face personal sanctions from Australia, as it plans to join international punishment

    Australia will level punishing financial sanctions against eight Russian oligarchs within Russian President Vladimir Putin’s circle, and 339 members of the Russian parliament, as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues.

    Foreign Minister Marise Payne said the oligarchs were mainly key banking figures who “have amassed great wealth through their positions of power”.

    Senator Payne said Australia also plans to join with the United States, United Kingdom and European Union in imposing sanctions on Russian President Vladimir Putin and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.

    The government is seeking advice from the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade on exactly how to do it, as sanctioning a world leader is a rare and serious move.

    “It is an exceptional step to sanction leaders but this is an exceptional situation.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-02-26/australia-sanctions-putin-directly-over-ukraine-invasion/100863788

  33. Re EVs and ‘range’…

    I don’t drive one, purely due to high purchase prices (our household’s compromise was to buy a Camry Hybrid, less than $2k more than the same non-hybrid Camry.)

    As has be noted, plugshare.com is a global website showing charging locations. You can search for specific types of chargers – e.g. ‘Tesla Superchargers’ -for a specific trip.

    You will find fast chargers enabling you to drive almost any Tesla from Hervey Bay, Qld to Adelaide, on a few different routes.

    Tesla is not simply a car manufacturer. Its stated mission is about stimulating the uptake of electric vehicles. Hence, Tesla also builds charging stations. Whatever I think of some Elon Musk’s attitudes and antics, kudos to him for this comprehensive vision.

    By the way, there is a Tesla Supercharger (fast charger) near Port Macquarie, NSW. It is located at Cassegrain winery – please don’t drink and drive!

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