YouGov: 52-48 to Labor in Queensland

A poll commissioned by the Courier-Mail finds Queensland’s Labor government keeping its head above water, despite the paper’s best efforts over recent weeks.

Yesterday’s Courier-Mail featured a YouGov poll of state voting intention in Queensland, which I believe is the first poll for the state since the October 2020 election. The poll credits Labor with a lead of 52-48 on two-party preferred, compared with 53.2-47.8 at the election, from primary votes of Labor 39% (39.6% at the election), Liberal National Party 38% (35.9%), Greens 10% (9.5%) and One Nation 8% (7.1%). Annastacia Palaszczuk recorded a 50% approval rating with disapproval at 36%. The poll was conducted Friday to Wednesday from a sample of 1021.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

7 comments on “YouGov: 52-48 to Labor in Queensland”

  1. Firstly I wouldn’t read let alone buy the Courier Mail such is its discredited reputation but lately walking past shops where it is prominently displayed it’s hard to avoid its maniacally anti ALP stance. Former DP Jackie Trad was their target prior to the last election but when their hit job worked and she fell to a Green ( probably not the outcome CM/ LNP coalition really were looking for) they are now trawling around for an ALP bogey person and prosecuting every WTF claim the LNP makes in increasingly desperate ways. It is really pathetic to live in a place where vehemently anti ALP propaganda passes as news. The ABC also joins into this CM narrative sometimes either through laziness or fear of appearing left wing. Anyway as a public servant I survived three years of Cando Newman’s chaotic, useless destructive,vengeful, deplorable government and I know who the bad guys really are.

  2. After J Sri’s popularity sky-rocketted in South Brisbane, Trad was always going to fall to the Greens eventually. It’s my gut assumption that not too many people in that electorate would pay much attention to the CM anyway.

  3. The poor Courier Mail are desperately trying to spin this as a bad result for Labor, but my first reaction upon seeing this poll was overwhelming relief. I was fearing something a lot worse.

    Palaszczuk has lost a bit of skin from how the opening up went around Christmas and the integrity scandals (the Lake Eyre basin stuff may be hurting a little too, but people pissed off about that arn’t going to be voting LNP over Labor), but remains in an enviable place for a third term premier, with voting intention results that remain higher than they were for much of 2017-2020 – where it was often neck-and-neck or even had the LNP with a slight lead. Even when Labor regained the lead post-Covid, it was only in the final weeks of the campaign that things blew out past 52-48 – my own theory is that was mostly thanks to Gladys Berejiklian’s helpful comments about a Frecklington LNP government opening the borders.

    I see that they neglected to poll for preferred premier or approval/disapproval ratings for David Crisafulli. I suppose there’s not much point when the vast majority of the state wouldn’t even know who he is.

    Still, we’re nearly three years from the next election, and anything could happen between now and then. But with the Courier Mail and the Opposition throwing everything they’ve got at the whole integrity commission thing right now, a status quo result like this has got to burn. I think the Courier Mail has inflicted a bad case of “boy who cried wolf” on itself with its general hysteria towards all things Palaszczuk.

  4. Ah, Qlds answer to the Herald Sun and the Daily Telegraph. Walking around the shops today, it’s pretty evident that anyone reading the free paper in the coffee shops is very much in the Seniors age bracket. Note- it’s free….
    Not only has the Courier been running anti- Labor propaganda for years but Stokes’ local Ch 7 news has really pushed the “Government in on the nose”theme, particularly APs trustworthiness.
    Only problem is that the Ukraine war and the enormous rain in SE Qld have pushed it right back to later in their bulletins.
    Add to that , the Couriers latest poll shows AP and Labor in front. That must really piss the local rag and 7 News off.
    As for the rain, I don’t know how much coverage it’s got in other parts of the country, but some rather incredible totals have been recorded and Brisbane’s water supplies have rocketed up by 55% to 90% + in the last 3months, most of that this month alone.
    My local dam hit 205% of capacity this morning, and as we live on the creek below it, we are more than a little apprehensive with possibly another 200mm due in the next 24 hrs. The main source is the D’Aguilar Range to the west of Brisbane which has recorded over 1 metre of rain in the last 8 days ; over 620 mm in the last 24 hrs. Our February average rainfall is about 150 mm. We have had 340mm this month alone and we have broken the 2015 record of 277mm. Add to that, March is our wettest month of the year…
    So lots to occupy our minds now, with the tragedy of the Ukraine ongoing. The only good news is the SA polling and the prospect of yet more bad news for Mr Ukulele. Small news for the world but big for Australian politics.

  5. Gettysburg1863says:
    Saturday, February 26, 2022 at 12:15 pm
    the prospect of yet more bad news for Mr Ukulele. Small news for the world but big for Australian politics.

    “small news for the world”
    Not even under the category of news.

  6. Even when Labor regained the lead post-Covid, it was only in the final weeks of the campaign that things blew out past 52-48

    Looks like I misremembered here. The polls actually never got better than 52-48 for Labor (apart from a couple of 53-47s way back in 2018), with the election eve Newspoll only being 51.5 – 48.5.

    This poll is a (slight) drop for Labor when compared to the actual election result (where Labor did better than any of the published polls), but its either equal or better than the polling from around the same time.

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