The Sydney Morning Herald has published the Resolve Strategic bi-monthly reading of state voting intention in New South Wales, which coming after a patchy-at-best performance in the by-elections the weekend before last offers a worrying result for the government. The Coalition is down four on the primary vote since November to 37% with Labor up three to 34%, the Greens down two to 8% and Shooters Fishers and Farmers steady on 2%. The pollster does not provide a two-party preferred result, but this would likely put Labor slightly ahead on two-party preferred, whereas the previous poll would have had the Coalition leading in the range of 52-48 to 53-47. Furthermore, Labor’s Chris Minns has opened up a 32-29 lead over Dominic Perrottet as preferred premier, who led 34-23 last time. The poll combines surveying from this week’s national poll, conducted Tuesday to Sunday, and the similar poll last month, for an overall sample of around 1000.
Notably, this poll was taken before the NSW government shut down the rail network for funsies.
sample of 100?
Maybe the stench of Eddie Obeid and others is finally starting to fade. I hope the internal governance of the NSW ALP is now what it needs to be and it never goes back to those ugly days. This poll also suggests that the self-inflicted demise of Gladys has been of great benefit to the ALP, maybe federally as well as at state level. I sincerely hope she is loving life at Optus and will not be seen again in the political world.
I recall looking at the Sportsbets odds for 2023 NSW election maybe a year ago, and the ALP was 100-1 in a 2-horse race. I’m not kidding! Now they are 1.95
Sample size 100 margin of error ? This is not consistent with the swings in Bega and Monaro
100 will be a typo…
From resolve methodology:
https://www.smh.com.au/national/resolve-political-monitor-20210322-p57cvx.html
Chris Minns @ChrisMinnsMP
#BREAKING: It has just been revealed that Dominic Perrottet and the NSW Govt were planning a TWO WEEK long train shutdown in Sydney.
And that the decision to shutdown the network was made last Thursday.
It is implausible that the Minister or the Premier was not aware of this.
Sample size 1000, sorry.
‘Parramatta Moderate says:
Thursday, February 24, 2022 at 1:34 pm
Maybe the stench of Eddie Obeid and others is finally starting to fade. I hope the internal governance of the NSW ALP is now what it needs to be and it never goes back to those ugly days….’
————————————
You would hope so. I would like to see a bit more rigorous evidence of same.
Holdenhilllbilly
“It is implausible that the Minister or the Premier was not aware of this.”
If anyone other than the Minister or Premier ordered the Sydney rail closure without their authorisation, they would have already been sacked.
The moderates in the NSW Liberal Party who supported DoPe as Premier either felt they would have him in a squirrel grip or let him have his head and do a ” Morrison” on himself. As factional groups in politics are wont to do anything that keeps them in control or exercise influence, they supported him for purely power reasons.
If this brouhaha over the rail lock-down doesn’t at least result in a ministerial reshuffle ( ie -sacking), then DoPe himself is in danger.
After its pathetic performance in the by-elections, there are some worried members of the Party.
None would be more worried than you-know -who with the ukulele.
How many moderates are left in the NSW Liberals?
The NSW Libs seem to be split between two factions.
One faction treats business as their religion, while the other treats their religion as a business.
Very good, Socrates.
“Socrates says:
Thursday, February 24, 2022 at 5:51 pm
How many moderates are left in the NSW Liberals?”…
The real ones have become independents and they will come to get Scomo at the coming federal election. Scomo put all his hopes on an “astonishing performance” of the Coalition in NSW, to compensate for expected losses elsewhere, especially in Qld and WA…. But with this broad downward trend we see in NSW, he is risking to be remembered as the leader who destroyed the Liberal party…. the 2019 “miracle” becoming just a fast fading away, irrelevant memory….
I feel for Ukrainians tonight.
Hard to see any upside for Russia in this. Crippling financial sanctions, global condemnation, potentially 1000’s of dead. All to satisfy one mans ego. What a disaster.
Watching live footage on Al Jazeera from supermarket in eastern Ukrainian city. No panic obvious. People buying a lot of food. No one stocking up on toilet paper. I guess they’re pretty much used to this after eight years of conflict
I was in the Young Liberals (yes kill me) when Alex Hawke became President. We got an agenda for the next meeting which involved the repudiation of every moderate position the organisation had. That’s when anyone anywhere near moderation left. He’s a snake.
Boerwar
Plus eleventy there. Watching from way out in The Cave the goings on reported were gob smacking .Even more amazing was seeing them still getting re-elected . How bad must the Opposition have been ! They better be cleaner than clean this time or all the old images/stereotypes they’ve taken years to scrape off will be welded back on in no time.
Alex Hawke was part of the hard right…then morphed to centre right which seems to have bop between the
Hard right and left. I am by no means an expert on the liberals but to me the labels mean little except if you already have a right of centre party and call yourself hard right there is only so far you can go and…
”
Garethsays:
Thursday, February 24, 2022 at 7:20 pm
I was in the Young Liberals (yes kill me) when Alex Hawke became President. We got an agenda for the next meeting which involved the repudiation of every moderate position the organisation had. That’s when anyone anywhere near moderation left. He’s a snake.
”
Alex Hawke Looks like close ally of PB Nostradumass. 🙂
Also looks like he works in shadows. That is the reason he had so much difficulty in DJoker decision as he was in full glare of world media.
”
Mick Quinlivansays:
Thursday, February 24, 2022 at 9:05 pm
Alex Hawke was part of the hard right…then morphed to centre right which seems to have bop between the
Hard right and left. I am by no means an expert on the liberals but to me the labels mean little except if you already have a right of centre party and call yourself hard right there is only so far you can go and…
”
I read stories in media that he was a very close to Hard-right faction boss David Clark in his younger days.
From the outside, it seems that today’s Liberal party is disintegrating and in a way not unlike the 1950s split in the Labor Party. The latter was driven by conservative (almost exclusively) Catholics led by the late Bob Santamaria. The “groupers” as they were called tried to call themselves the Australian Labor Party (Anti-Communist) and eventually settled on the name Democratic Labor Party. The latter, as payback preferenced the Liberal/National [Country] parties ahead of the majority Australian Labor Party and effectively kept the ALP in the electoral wilderness for 23 years. The DLP slowly declined and formally disbanded itself – only to be resurrected by a small die-hard group in Victoria and it now claims to be active in other Australian states. Fast forward what may unfold with today’s Liberal Party? Given the apparent fierce hostility between the factions struggling for supremacy within the Liberal Party it is not inconceivable we will see emerge two separate parties….perhaps a Conservative Party (for the hard line right wingers and the religious conservatives who have been recruited by ambitious existing Liberal MPs and power brokers) and a Liberal Party that will try to resurrect a party that seeks to espouse a genuine liberalism and one without any ideological objection to warranted government intervention in the public arena (and reject the neo-liberal discredited notion of “small government” and let business and the market run the economy).
Perhaps the “Teals” as they have been dubbed, now putting the wind up Liberal MPs like Tim Wilson, Dave Sharma and Zimmerman, if they manage to gain several seats at the 2022 federal election will evolve into the latter kind of Liberal Party.
Much as it would be good news I don’t think the liberal party will split.More likely would be a day of reckoning for the national party.. when they are almost wiped out by the liberals declaring political war in a very good climate for Labor. THE circumstances of the dlp split were insane..
What is the money trail for Putin to engage in this latest monstrosity?
900,000 barrels a month of russian crude oil, refined in battleground states like texas, helps focus the mind.
looks like there’s bipartisan support on capital hill to exclude russian crude oil from sanctions.
take russia off the swift system and those 900,000 barrels a month would have to be paid for with roubles.
moscow stock exchange down 3% overall but energy stocks surge. how ’bout that for a putin money trail. -a.v.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/new-us-sanctions-on-russia-not-expected-to-severely-target-energy-sector/ar-AAUg5GT?ocid=BingNewsSearch
“Mick Quinlivansays:
Friday, February 25, 2022 at 3:56 am
Much as it would be good news I don’t think the liberal party will split.”
The Liberal party itself will not split, it’s the broader Liberal voters that will. Many are going to vote for progressive-former-Liberal Independents.
Can someone who knows what is happening explain why Russian army is on the outskirts of Kyiv? Was there no real Ukrainian Army or did they capitulate to save lives as a Russian win was inevitable.