Ends and odds

Recent matters to report that aren’t state poll results.

It’s been a big couple of days for state opinion polls: a shock Newspoll from South Australia three weeks out from the election, a YouGov poll showing Labor still in front in Queensland, and a Resolve Strategic finding that Labor is back in the game in New South Wales. As well as all that, I can offer the following summary of miscellaneous developments to hang a new open thread off:

• The Age/Herald has related that the small sample of 170 Western Australian respondents from the recent Resolve Strategic poll had 64% supporting Mark McGowan’s decision to scrap the originally proposed date of February 5 for reopening the state’s border, with only 32% opposed. This compares with 39% and 47% respectively from the national sample of 1604.

• The Liberal National Party candidate for the Labor-held marginal seat of Lilley in Brisbane, Ryan Shaw, has announced his withdrawal. Shaw is an army veteran who served in East Timor and Afghanistan, and said he had made the decision to focus on his mental health.

• Lara Alexander will become one of the three Liberal members for Bass in the Tasmanian state parliament after winning the recount to succeed Sarah Courtney. This involved counting the ballots that elected Courtney at the election last May, which found Alexander prevailing over rival Liberal candidate Simon Wood by 5671 votes (52.9%) to 5051 (47.1%).

• The Poll Bludger, individually and collectively, was greatly saddened to hear of the death of Zoe Wilson, a.k.a. Lizzie, an unfailingly civil contributor to the forum of long standing, as was related yesterday in comments by Zoomster.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

947 comments on “Ends and odds”

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  2. It has been another bad week for Morrison , International matters have made it worse

    Playing politics with china propaganda will back fire

    The world leaders do not trust Morrison or his words

    People still will not forget Morrison legacy is when things get tough Morrison flees to another country instead of remaining to help his fellow Australians

  4. That Dutton gofundme exercise could be turned into a meme, or better. I can see the scene.

    Dutton: Please Scott. Can I have some of that money? It’s for flood relief in my back yard.

    Morrison: No way sunshine.

    Dutton: but…

    Morrison: No! I just don’t care son. We need that $4Billion it for the election.

  5. Leon
    Last year I created a detailed Standard Operating Procedure for watering the oval. So yesterday I called the park committee chairman who has been casting around to get a volunteer to stand in.
    Recent events will encourage Mrs BK to steel her resolve to get me to pull the pin.

  6. Eyes will definitely be on SfM in how he deals with the floods, if it is anything like his previous disaster photo ops it will be a make or break
    ________________________________________
    Madura McCormack
    @MaduraMcCormack
    ·
    21m
    Prime Minister Scott Morrison has “commended” QLD MP Peter Dutton for setting up a flood recovery crowd-funding campaign for a local community. Mr Morrison also said he didn’t understand the criticism. ⁦@couriermail
    ⁩

  7. @Late Riser

    Next announcement will be Frodo suggesting people dip into their super for flood relief like those escaping domestic violence

  11. Oz Headline: Covid-hit Clive Palmer battling pneumonia

    Multiple sources close to the unvaccinated businessman say he remains very sick.

  15. “ GoFundMe#Bushfires GoFundMe#Vaccination GoFundMe#Submarines . It could revolutionise governance.”

    Plus providing opportunities for Harvey Norman and Bunnings Sponsorship: the hulls of our unobtanium clad nuclear submarines are very large and just crying out for tasteful corporate signage. Perhaps even UAP billboards …

  16. BK:

    Sunday, February 27, 2022 at 7:24 pm

    [‘Leon

    Last year I created a detailed Standard Operating Procedure for watering the oval. So yesterday I called the park committee chairman who has been casting around to get a volunteer to stand in.
    Recent events will encourage Mrs BK to steel her resolve to get me to pull the pin.’]

    At the age of 77, old BK, I think “Mrs. BK” is on the money. She seems not delighted at the prospect of being the “Widow of BK”.

  17. I agree with someone above that it’ll be 54-46.

    A khaki election is sfm’s dream. It won’t be enough to save him, but it will help.

    But minimising the damage, the last poll under sampled greens voters, so their return to 10 will add about 0.65 2pp to labor, assuming it takes 1 from each major

  19. For the people in the flooded areas coping with incessant rain, please be safe. I do not know if or when our Federal gov’t will get around to helping you, but until then you only have each other and whatever we can do from interstate.

    I am not donating to The Spuds Flood Crowdfunding Moneyraiser. That is a precedent that needs nipping in the bud pronto. His government is supposed to be helping from our tax payments, not begging for money from the citizens because he does not want the government’s financial books to be worse than they already are.

    I do not know who to donate to now, after the bushfire fiasco. I guess just the usual ones I give to, whom I trust to go out and do the work and give the goods.

  20. Take heed of Mrs BK Bk. Water and cricket grounds can be a stressful combination.
    I recall that many years ago I was responsible for pitch preparation for the upcoming game. Friday night, a bit of a sprinkle from the hose and a light roll had things looking very good. Check early Saturday not good. I hadn’t turned the hose tap off properly and the ensuing flow of water had created a sticky mess at one end. Worse still was the realisation that I had a 50% chance of batting on the sticky mess come afternoon.
    Fortunately the sun was shining, the wind was blowing and plenty of dry grass clippings were available so I didn’t have to resort to setting fire to the pitch as had recently been reported from Jamaica. No one else ever knew.
    I don’ t remember making any runs though.

  22. Steve777 @ #806 Sunday, February 27th, 2022 – 6:18 pm

    There are plenty of grounds on which Dutton can and should be subject to criticism and attack. I don’t think that these include fundraising for flood victims.

    We’ll see how the Federal Government responds in coming days. Their efforts over the last couple of years with the Fires and the Plague don’t inspire confidence. They’ve probably already started a soreadsheet.

    Federal govt ministers don’t start crowd funding events,they do their job and provide funding from federal resources.

  24. Dr Fumbles Mcstupid @ #851 Sunday, February 27th, 2022 – 4:25 pm

    Eyes will definitely be on SfM in how he deals with the floods, if it is anything like his previous disaster photo ops it will be a make or break
    ________________________________________
    Madura McCormack
    @MaduraMcCormack
    ·
    21m
    Prime Minister Scott Morrison has “commended” QLD MP Peter Dutton for setting up a flood recovery crowd-funding campaign for a local community. Mr Morrison also said he didn’t understand the criticism. ⁦@couriermail
    ⁩

    Yes, he has never seen it as a Government responsibility to provide aid during hardship.

  25. Poroti, AE

    “#GoFundMe#Bushfires GoFundMe#Vaccination GoFundMe#Submarines . It could revolutionise governance.”

    It has already been revolutionised. Christian Porter is a man ahead of his time with #GoFundMe#LegalFees.

    Or we could have corporate sponsorship of policy and legislation:

    The Santos Gas-Led Recovery Policy
    The Newscorp Media regulation Policy
    The General Dynamics Defence Policy
    The Price Waterhouse Tendering Policy
    The Crosby Textor Information Security Policy

    A brave new world.

  27. Holden hillbilly

    “ Oz Headline: Covid-hit Clive Palmer battling pneumonia

    Multiple sources close to the unvaccinated businessman say he remains very sick.”

    For some harsh reason I am reminded of several US far right figures who urged people not to get vaccinated then succumbed themselves. So sad.

  30. Australia’s support for the Ukrainian government will come in dollars and not actual goods. It will be a lot easier to buy the stuff needed in Europe and ship it from there than buy it in Europe or America bring it to Australia and then ship it to Ukraine.

  31. Binged “Covid-hit Clive Palmer” just now, and pinged on this.

    After two years of negotiations, billionaire mining magnate Clive Palmer has secured Adolf Hitler’s bulletproof Mercedes-Benz for a museum he wants to build on the Gold Coast. The Mercedes-Benz 770 Grosser Offener Tourenwagen was purchased from an unnamed Russian billionaire and features bulletproof glass and armoured panelling.

    https://www.perthnow.com.au/politics/clive-palmer/clive-palmer-purchases-adolf-hitlers-mercedes-benz-for-gold-coast-museum–c-5859570
    I’m struck by the propitious combination of “Russian”, “billionaire”, “Clive Palmer” and “covid”.

    Edit: and Hitler

  32. I think Clive Palmer takes the cake by a long way on that one (clue joke about taking many cakes).

    The GoFundMe is not great but it at least allows people to do something when they feel powerless.

    Buying Hitler’s car from a Russian Billionaire in the current environment is off the planet clueless.

  33. Sprocket at 7.54pm

    The guy shaking Putin’s hand is Robert Kraft, owner of the New England Patriots gridiron team.

    The National Football League, overwhelmingly owned, coached and watched by white people (many of them lunar Right); overwhelmingly played by African-Americans…

  34. dwh

    “A lot of water from the dams will hit Ipswich and Brisbane in the next few days and with all local creeks in flood this could be worse than 1974.”

    The height of the 1974 flood marker in the botanical gardens is ridiculous.

  35. Rather than focus on the 2PP, look at the primary votes for the major parties. And keep in mind what happened in 2019. The Coalition polled 41-42% primary vote while Labor got 33-34%. The Greens polled close to 10%. The pollsters make assumptions about the distribution of preferences that are sometimes off the mark. So stick to the primaries. If Labor is still ahead of the Coalition on primaries in tomorrow’s Newspoll, it probably means the Russian Invasion, the Coalition’s own China syndrome, national security et al have had little effect.

  36. Could be anything but hopefully the real thing

    Conflict News
    @Conflicts
    ·
    19m
    VIDEO: Footage of what is claimed to be a Ukrainian Bayraktar TB2 drone strike against a Russian vehicle column. –
    @ukrpravda_news

  37. Shellbell @ #884 Sunday, February 27th, 2022 – 7:21 pm

    dwh

    “A lot of water from the dams will hit Ipswich and Brisbane in the next few days and with all local creeks in flood this could be worse than 1974.”

    The height of the 1974 flood marker in the botanical gardens is ridiculous.

    Wivenhoe will absorb much of the impact. That’s what it was built for in the 1980s

  39. Re Grime @7:58 ” Federal govt ministers don’t start crowd funding events,they do their job and provide funding from federal resources.”

    I agree, I just don’t think that attacking it would be very fruitful, more of a distraction. Maybe keep an eye on it to make sure the money goes where it’s needed.

  40. One final note on Clive Palmer. His mansion on the Brisbane River lies just downstream from The Lone Pine. It’s a big place. Right on the river…

  42. My sister’s house in West End is under water. Just when she was going to list it for sale and hopefully become debt free. D’oh!

  43. “My sister’s house in West End is under water.” Hmm. Sorry to hear that. I hope she’s safe. We made some phone calls tonight and everyone we care about is OK. (and dry)

  45. Palmer, if he succumbs to Covid, will probably far more useful to society dead than he would be as a failed, but wealthy politicial agitator.

    There will be no excuses: he didn’t take the mind-controlling vaccine, and he had plenty of horse paste to hand. He will have died by following his own publicly uttered choices.

    I’m agnostic on the subject, in that I don’t care whether he makes it or doesn’t. And that’s probably erring on the side of good manners.

  46. Bushfire Bill at 8:57 pm
    If you remember the likelihood that people who spread bullshit about Covid and vaccines will contribute to the deaths of those they sucked in, then you won’t feel so ‘guilty’ or ‘bad mannered’ .

  47. That clip of Scott Morrison with Stephen Marshall is just extraordinary. I had to watch it twice to be sure it wasn’t a parody….

  50. Morrison on Dutton’s Go Fund Me campaign:

    “That sounds to me like someone doing their job,” Morrison said in Brisbane on Sunday evening when announcing commonwealth-state disaster payments for flood-affected communities.

    “As a local member of parliament, you always look to try and harness community support for responding to major disasters, that’s what our job is – to work with our communities when they’re in times of stress and times of need.”

    Remember when the Gillard government set up a levy on high-end taxpayers to fund the response to the last big Queensland floods? Government “interference” was labelled as “un-Australian”.

    Looks like the same deal in the present circumstance.

    Meanwhile, $4.8 billion languishes in the Commonwealth Disaster Fund, earning interest.

    The Libs are such wonderful money managers.

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