Essential Research and Roy Morgan polls (and Resolve Strategic too)

One pollster moves closer to the pack by recording movement to Labor, while another remains consistent in projecting a Labor landslide.

Two new polls that have come down the chute overnight:

• Essential Research’s voting intention numbers, which will now be reportedly every fortnight, have Labor up three to 38%, the Coalition down two to 35%, the Greens steady on 9%, One Nation up one to 5%, the United Australia Party up one to 3% and undecided down two to 6%. The pollster’s “2PP+” measure has Labor up two to 49%, the Coalition down one to 45% and undecided down one to 6%. The poll also features the monthly leadership ratings, which have Scott Morrison down two on approval to 44% and up three on disapproval to 49%, whereas Anthony Albanese is up three on approval to 42% and steady on 39% disapproval. Morrison leads 40-35 on preferred prime minister, in from 42-34 a month ago. These results, together with breakdowns by state, age cohort, gender and more besides, can be found on the pollster’s website. I note that One Nation’s increase to their equal highest level for the past term is driven by a six-point increase in Queensland to 10%, though I’d want to see that repeated before reading anything into it.

The report in The Guardian features results from the survey’s attitudinal questions. Several of these relate to the particularly pertinent question of Australia’s relationship with China, and like just about everything else from these polls, the results are not encouraging for the government: 37% said they had more trust in Labor to manage the relationship compared with 28% for the Coalition and 34% for unsure. Sixty-one per cent regard the relationship as “a complex dynamic to be managed”, with only 26% preferring an alternative characterisation as “a threat to be confronted”.

The Essential poll was conducted online from Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1089. Further results from the poll, including the regular series on federal and state government COVID-19 management, will presumably be along with the full report later today.

• Also out is the latest fortnightly result from Roy Morgan, which seems to have introduced a longer delay between its field work and the release of the results for whatever reason. The latest numbers are even worse for the Coalition than the last: they are steady on 33% of the primary vote, with Labor up one to 38.5%, the Greens steady on 11.5%, One Nation up half to 4%, the United Australia Party down half to 1.5% and independents steady on 8%. The respondent-allocated two-party measure, which for this pollster at least is consistenly more favourable for Labor than the previous election preferences method would be, has Labor’s lead out from 56.5-43.6 to 57-43.

State two-party breakdowns are provided, showing Labor leading 59-41 in New South Wales (out from 54-46 for a swing of about 11.5%), 57.5-42.5 in Victoria (in from 59-41, a swing of about 4.5%), 51.5-48.5 in Queensland (unchanged, a swing of about 10%), 53.5-46.5 in Western Australia (in from 55.5-44.5, a swing of about 9%), 59.5-40.5 in South Australia (in from 64-36, a swing of about 9%) and 65-35 in Tasmania (out from 61.5-38.5, a swing of about 9%). The poll was conducted online and by phone from January 31 to February 13 from a sample of 2796.

I have updated the BludgerTrack poll (though I’m going to hold off updating the state-level trends for a bit for commercial reasons), which now shows Labor’s lead exceeding 56-44 and the two leaders’ net satisfaction ratings crossing paths, putting Albanese ahead for the first time since the onset of the pandemic. If that’s still not enough fresh content for you, note my newly published South Australian election guide and the introductory blog post and thread below, if you have any thoughts you would like to share concerning a campaign now officially in its first week.

UPDATE (Resolve Strategic): Now we have the monthly Resolve Strategic poll for the Age/Herald, which records the Coalition down one to 33%, Labor steady at 35%, the Greens down one to 10% and One Nation steady on 3%, independents down one to 10% and “others” up three to 9%.

Resolve Strategic doesn’t publish two-party numbers, but this comes out at a Labor lead of about 53-47 based on previous election preferences. The state breakdowns imply about 52-48 to Labor in New South Wales, 53.5-46.5 in Victoria and 50-50 in Queensland, for respective swings to Labor of about 4%, 0.5% and 8.5%. Contra Essential Research, One Nation is down four points in Queensland to 9%.

Scott Morrison’s personal ratings have significantly deteriorated, his approval down three to 38% and disapproval up six to 56%, while Anthony Albanese is respectively up two to 36% and up one to 42%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister has nonetheless widened slightly, from 38-31 to 39-30. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Sunday from a sample of 1604.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,572 comments on “Essential Research and Roy Morgan polls (and Resolve Strategic too)”

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  1. Confirmation that the “reds under the bed” campaign isn’t working.

    While it’s worked in the past, Australia generally has moved on. You’d think the Libs would have learnt that racist messaging doesn’t work from the African Gangs fiasco. The Libs went backwards in Vic at the time.

  4. But in the early hours of Monday, the decision was made to take the most drastic of steps, which resulted in unsuspecting commuters stranded on platforms and roads everywhere choked with a deluge of cars. And the government allowed it all to happen, or more accurately, Transport Minister David Elliott did.

    Late on Monday, Elliott’s senior colleagues were questioning whether the minister, who never wanted the policy-heavy portfolio in the first place, took his eye off the ball and allowed the switch-off to proceed without understanding the full ramifications. Elliott, known for his grenade throwing, called the union’s action “un-Australian” and an act of “bastardry”.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/sydney-train-shutdown-perrottet-s-monumental-political-gamble-20220221-p59yde.html

    David Elliot stuffing up again. He has to be the most useless minister in this most terrible government.

    As the news outlets are reporting, this unnecessary train stoppage is entirely the government’s fault for deliberately choosing to shut down the network on spurious grounds of ‘safety’. The trains were already running on reduced timetables because of Covid and there’s no reason they couldn’t have done yesterday what they’re doing today: simply reduce the number of trains running.

    What gave it away for me yesterday that this was a govt ploy was the early emergence of the IR Minister. Train drivers have been striking for months now, causing train stoppages, yet never, not once have we ever seen the IR Minister give a press conference. It’s always the Transport Minister or Premier who are the public faces. And if the Transport Minister wasn’t available (in the NT apparently), then NSW has a Metro Transport Minister who could easily have spoken on his behalf. Yet yesterday, there was the IR minister out and about early and pointing fingers, only unfortunately letting it slip that the govt shut down the rail network. Oops!

  5. And Ch9 news last night made the point that Sydney trains are always being shut down by storms, and people are left stranded on trains between stations or on platforms. So the whole ‘safety’ argument from Perrottet is just nonsense.

  7. Reactionaries are usually quite good at running trains on time. But not the LNP. They really are terribly bad. Coast to coast, utterly useless. Even in their chosen specialty, lying, they are useless.

  8. The Daily ToiletPaper bringing out the dirt on Chris Minns early, must be worried as very few know who he is…

    Mandarin Minns: Communist Party funded ALP’s China trip
    Labor leader Chris Minns took a five-day trip to Hong Kong and China that was funded by a Chinese billionaire exiled from Australia as an agent of Chinese influence.

  11. https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/sydney-train-shutdown-live-updates-limited-services-to-run-after-nsw-transport-minister-rail-union-reach-last-minute-agreement-20220221-p59yg3.html?post=p53d46#p53d46

    Monday’s abrupt loss of Sydney’s vital rail services – with much mutual finger-pointing between the government and the Rail Tram and Bus Union (RTBU) over who is to blame – has been centre stage over the past 24 hours. But not far behind the train drivers and railway staff are frustrated nurses, teachers, paramedics, prison officers and possibly others too.

    The unrest is being driven by a combustible mix of rising inflation (now outstripping the paltry wage rises of the last couple of years), simmering anger at the coalition’s legislated 2.5 per cent cap on annual wage rises, impatience with the never-ending efficiency dividends imposed on the public service, and the exhaustion of front-line workers who’ve borne the brunt of supporting the public through the COVID-19 pandemic.

  12. Well well well:

    https://www.9news.com.au/national/china-australia-relations-beijing-disputes-adfs-account-of-pla-navy-ship-shining-laser-at-raaf-plane/3fb4b79d-862c-4f72-b145-a0937bd2ddc3

    China claims that the Poseidon ‘surveillance’ aircraft* came within 4km of its ships – well within the 5km point at which the laser range finder of the CIWS automatically activates – and was dropping sonar buoys.

    * The Poseidon is a surveillance aircraft – a point that ScoMo was keen to emphasise yesterday and over the weekend. But it is also a sophisticated anti-ship offensive weapons platform, with 11 hard points for torpedoes and anti-ship missiles: something he assiduously avoided mentioning (and which the presstitudes who were taking dictation from the Father of the Nation didn’t bother to investigate themselves).

    If that Poseidon did come within 4km of the PLA-N flotilla and was dropping sonar buoys, then that puts a different complexion on things, doesn’t it?

    Cue US Marine Private, First Class C@tmomma reminding the bludger board that I’m just a ChiComm ‘appeaser’ …

  15. https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/02/22/essential-research-and-roy-morgan-polls/#comment-3825447

    +1, as one comedian once put it I am not afraid of no al-Qaeda, I am from Brooklyn.
    [Had I gone to the office yesterday rather than work from anywhere, well it would have meant multiple buses to try and get on, letting it RIP crowded no doubt, only to then try and quickly get from the transport hub through the mean streets of Western Sydney.]

    With the Fibs/ Nats’ extreme disaster capitalism in fed gummint since 2013, 1996, even couped in from 1975, who needs enemies [BRICs?].

    Or the enemy of my enemy is my friend, I get confused, :). The reds [take the PR of China] certainly seem to be able to have fast rail and make it go.
    Then again may be instead of paying penalties on them subs not ordered from France they have some used TGVs we could get?

    Based on TGA/ Essential PV to shit Libs lite of 38%, possibly not shit minors/ independents in between 27% and (undecided) 6%, and shit Fibs/ Nats 35%?

    Or a third+ progressive, a third- swing voters/ not major parties, and a third conservative. About as rusted on as all that assembly manufacturing that isn’t around any longer.

    To help me decide, I’ll be using stances on governance, Wuflu, climate, social support before corporate welfare (and if I had any doubts on the WA Premier, his latest Qantas Group observations, still called whiny empire airways, health and public safety before wealth, would have gotten rid of those), powershift … .
    Bonus points for any party proposing a mandatory and binding referendum on removing the colonial Union Jack from the flag

    Not just the why should I vote for you, how have or will you conducted yourself, what have or will you achieve [advancing or regressing Australia, fair].

  17. On Rupert, worth revisiting….

    Back in 2004, reviewing a previous wave of Murdochology that had washed ashore the sandy beaches of the London Review of Books, John Lanchester, following Frederic Jameson, argued that the man himself personified a kind of ‘cultural logic’ of postmodern capitalism. ‘Rupert Murdoch is not so much a man, or a cultural force, as a portrait of the modern world,’ Lanchester wrote, ‘he is the way we live now; he is the media magnate we deserve.’…

    Just like capital, Murdoch can be channelled and regulated, stymied here and divested there. But, like some protean force of nature, he can’t really be stopped. He is too powerful for that, too wealthy, too smart. This is why the common attribution of Murdoch as a ‘media baron’ is so apt.

    https://sydneyreviewofbooks.com/review/high-drama-low-farce/

  18. “ But did Chris Minns get a Rolex watch!?! ”

    No, but ‘someone’ paid for an all expenses 18 month study trip to the US for him and his family over and above what was likely on offer from Princeton, or its endowment partners. …

  19. Polls? Mostly MOE.
    Hair dressing, welding, China FUD, Reds under the Beds, Employment with a 3 in front of it, Russia FUD, Murdoch hacks trying to turn sow’s ears into silk politicians…
    …Mad Morrison’s sky fairy magic seems to have evaporated.

  21. “ A-E
    I recall seeing 3km, not 5km.”

    3 nm.

    The auto canon will open up at extreme range of about 3km (~2 nm), but the range finder activates further out.

  23. Come in spinner! I knew Earlwood would be positively salivating at The Daily Toilet Paper’s story about Chris Minns. Comrade, the Liberal Party love turncoats like you. They need a candidate for Paramatta you know. 😐

  26. A-E

    Thanks on the distances.

    I assume that Morrison’s Arced Up Laser Incident will not impact China’s 14 Demands and the trade punishment that goes with it.

    I note in passing that China has been negotiating with the head of the UN Human Rights Committee on access to Uigher Land. If you thought access to the Wuhan data was controlled, imagine the line up of happy Uighers who will confront the UN Human Rights Committee chap.

  28. ‘C@tmomma says:
    Tuesday, February 22, 2022 at 7:36 am

    Boerwar @ #22 Tuesday, February 22nd, 2022 – 7:35 am

    So, the Aussies were checking to see whether the PLAN’s surface units had a sub tucked underneath…

    Ssshhh!!! You’re getting in the way of Earlwood’s attempted demolition of me. ‘
    ————————————————-
    China’s PLAN had 100% right to be where it was and it had 100% right to try and run subs under the noise shadow of surface units. All navies with subs try it.

  29. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    Katherine Murphy unpicks the latest Essential poll which has some good signs for Labor.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/feb/22/more-voters-trust-labor-than-coalition-to-manage-australia-china-relationship-poll-suggests
    And Paul Karp reports that an Essential poll, commissioned by the Australian Medical Association, found voters who had traditionally supported the Coalition on health and hospital funding were now deserting them. Support in this key area had dropped, with 34% now questioning the government’s record.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/feb/22/poll-shows-hit-to-coalition-vote-over-covid-handling-and-health-funding
    Premier Perrottet showed that he is ready for a fight. He had better hope voters hate unions as much as he does, says Alexandra Smith who describes his poly as a “monumental political gamble”.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/sydney-train-shutdown-perrottet-s-monumental-political-gamble-20220221-p59yde.html
    The sudden breakout of industrial warfare between the NSW government and key public sector unions does not augur well for the autumn and winter ahead. Any hope of respite that Premier Dominic Perrottet might have had as Omicron subsided has been replaced by the threat of a new disruptor, writes Deborah Snow.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/public-sector-unrest-threatens-an-autumn-of-discontent-20220221-p59ybh.html
    Michael McGowan says that yesterday the New South Wales transport minister, David Elliott, started on a rhetorical cliff and kept walking.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/feb/22/more-strikes-inevitable-in-nsw-as-government-ramps-up-anti-union-rhetoric
    Angus Thompson writes that Scott Morrison will continue to link Anthony Albanese with episodes of industrial action even as the head of Australia’s union movement branded his comments about the Sydney train dispute a “desperate” diversion.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/taste-of-labor-unions-the-latest-front-in-pm-s-attack-on-opposition-20220221-p59y8q.html
    Scott Morrison’s ramping up of a scare campaign against Labor’s Anthony Albanese has shone a laser-like focus on just how defenceless Australia is against any military threat China might pose, writes Paul Bongiorno.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2022/02/22/paul-bongiorno-china-scare-campaign/
    According to Anthony Galloway, China’s foreign ministry says Australia’s complaint about a laser from a Chinese naval vessel doesn’t square with the facts and called on the nation to stop spreading false information.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/china-urges-australia-to-stop-maliciously-spreading-false-information-over-laser-beam-incident-20220221-p59yfv.html
    The government’s China scare campaign against Labor could have serious consequences for Asian people in Australia, explains Zac Crellin.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/2022/02/21/government-china-scare-campaign/
    Zoe Samios tells us that Scott Morrison’s attempt to establish a bipartisan commission to oversee live television election debates has stumbled at the last minute after the Labor Party failed to back the revised framework. A revised framework sent to media companies earlier this month outraged the commercial television networks who felt News Corp Australia was given more influence on the board than them.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/no-umpire-for-live-tv-debates-as-commission-pledge-falls-over-20220218-p59xux.html
    Andrew Podger begins a series in which he outlines how to rebuild capability in the Australian Public Service.
    https://johnmenadue.com/rebuilding-aps-capability-part-1-mm-note-need-for-link/
    Nick O’Malley and Nick Toscano take us inside ‘Project Arise’: Cannon-Brookes’ secret plan to take over AGL. They say that so far, the AGL board is rejecting the bid, but few believe that Project Arise has fired its last shot.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/inside-project-arise-cannon-brookes-secret-plan-to-take-over-agl-20220221-p59yer.html
    Adam Morton and Peter Hannam examine Cannon-Brookes’ motives underneath his AGL bid.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/feb/22/why-is-a-tech-billionaire-trying-to-buy-australias-dirtiest-energy-company-agl
    The combined capital firepower of Brookfield and tech billionaire Mike Cannon-Brookes is huge – enough to swallow the 180-year-old AGL several times over, writes Elizabeth Knight who takes a look at the AGL move from an investor’s point of view.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/climate-hero-turns-corporate-predator-cannon-brookes-powers-up-his-green-credentials-20220221-p59y75.html
    The AFR tells us that Mike Cannon-Brookes has hit back at a veiled threat by Prime Minister Scott Morrison to potentially block his proposed $8 billion joint takeover with Brookfield Asset Management of AGL Energy, arguing a faster switch from coal to renewables would cut power prices and not destabilise the grid.
    https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/agl-takeover-faces-government-roadblock-20220221-p59y85
    The AFR declares that the Foreign Investment Review Board process should not be retrofitted to justify politicised government intervention that forces electricity companies to keep their coal-fired power plants burning.
    https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/firb-not-right-lever-to-manage-energy-transition-20220220-p59y2q
    The battle for AGL heralds a new dawn for Australian electricity, says Bruce Mountain, Director of the Victoria Energy Policy Centre.
    https://theconversation.com/the-battle-for-agl-heralds-a-new-dawn-for-australian-electricity-177530
    “What do news reports about Grace Tame’s bong, Jenny Morrison’s 60 Minutes fluff piece and Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s China scare campaign have in common?”, asks Victoria Fielding who says They are all symptoms of a particular class of political journalism that is closer to propaganda than news.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/media-propaganda-a-scourge-on-democracy,16071
    Jo Masters explains why we’re embarking on a great jobs experiment. She says, “The post-pandemic labour market will see more of us moving jobs in search of better conditions, a kinder work-life balance and higher wages. While this “reshuffle” will create challenges for employers, it also offers the opportunity to create a more sustainable, inclusive and equitable Australia.”
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/why-we-re-embarking-on-a-great-jobs-experiment-20220221-p59y9q.html
    Clive Palmer is expected to outline the United Australia Party’s financial policy ahead of the next federal election. In a speech to the National Press Club today, the UAP founder is also set to discuss where he believes the Australian economy is heading. How will the journos handle him, I wonder.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7629876/clive-palmer-to-make-press-club-speech/?cs=14264
    Ben Roberts-Smith’s reputation took another battering in court yesterday, report Michaela Whitbourn and Georgina Mitchell.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/soldier-told-comrade-he-didn-t-feel-safe-around-roberts-smith-court-told-20220221-p59ya2.html
    The NSW government has begun issuing flood plain harvesting licences in NSW despite objections from the upper house – a move that has been labelled “an act of bastardry” and “bad faith” by key crossbenchers. Despite strong indications the regulations underpinning the licences could be disallowed for a third time by the Legislative Council, the state’s water minister, Kevin Anderson, is understood to have begun issuing the licences.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/feb/21/nsw-government-issuing-of-flood-plain-harvesting-licences-an-act-of-bastardry-crossbenchers-say
    Chief health officers and officials in Victoria and NSW are considering plans to allow asymptomatic household contacts of COVID-positive people to avoid isolation.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/health-chiefs-weigh-household-isolation-rule-change-20220221-p59ybs.html
    A $32 million dollar media campaign to promote infrastructure plans was not always objective and oversold the level of federal government involvement in projects, an audit has revealed. The two-year Building our Future campaign, which aimed to spread awareness of a $100 billion-dollar federal government infrastructure plan over the next decade, was missing key documentation demonstrating its effectiveness and value for money. Hardly surprising, given the form this mob has.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7625766/infrastructure-gets-wrist-slap-for-misleading-ads-in-32m-govt-campaign/?cs=14350
    Investors have shunned cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin as tensions between Russia and Ukraine have escalated, and are instead seeking refuge in the more traditional safe haven of gold, explains Karen Maley.
    https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-services/gold-regains-safe-haven-lustre-while-bitcoin-struggles-20220221-p59y9b
    A West Australian independent MP and former Nationals state president accused of sexually abusing an eight-year-old girl has indicated he will fight the charges. James Hayward briefly faced Perth magistrates court on Monday charged with multiple offences, including persistent sexual conduct. Hmmm.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/feb/21/west-australian-mp-james-hayward-to-fight-charges-relating-to-alleged-sexual-abuse-of-girl-8-court-told
    Two new reports have shed more light on why women continue to be murdered by their male partners. Now we need a serious national plan to prevent future killings, declares Anne Summers.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/lethal-lovers-national-strategy-needed-to-end-domestic-homicides-20220221-p59yao.html
    The reputation of Swiss banking has taken a battering for years and the hits keep coming, with a fresh slew of stories about Credit Suisse’s links with unsavoury clients, explains Bloomberg’s Paul Davies.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/credit-suisse-s-dirty-money-leak-shines-light-on-murky-world-of-swiss-banking-20220222-p59ygo.html

    Cartoon Corner

    David Pope – ouch!

    David Rowe

    Andrew Dyson

    John Shakespeare


    Matt Golding





    Alan Moir

    Mark Knight

    Dionne Gain

    Leak in full News Ltd flight

    From the US





  31. “ Come in spinner! I knew Earlwood would be positively salivating at The Daily Toilet Paper’s story about Chris Minns. Comrade, the Liberal Party love turncoats like you. They need a candidate for Paramatta you know. ”

    Still rejoicing that Bob Who and the numptys behind his ascension thought it a genius move to obliterate party democracy and install a bloke whose only talent was disloyalty and without doing any basic due diligence, despite Minns being joined at the hip to Jamie Clements.

    Tis’ best that it all comes out now and either it ‘blows over’ or we can remove the problem while there is still a chance to chose an alternative leader. Imagine if the hit jobs on Minns were all kept up the sleeve off the LNP dirt units and MSM lackey until the beginning of March 2023?

    Blind loyalty to the party leadership will only get you so far. Unfortunately, in case it has escaped your attention C@t, the party leadership in NSW has been dysfunctional since the time that Della left Head Office to go to Macquarie St. Over twenty years ago.

  32. A privately commissioned Essential Poll….

    Health and the handling of the Covid-19 pandemic are a significant drag on the Coalition vote, with one in three Australians less likely to vote for the Morrison government due to the level of public hospital funding, according to new polling.

    An Essential poll, commissioned by the Australian Medical Association, found voters who had traditionally supported the Coalition on health and hospital funding were now deserting them. Support in this key area had dropped, with 34% now questioning the government’s record.

    Only the Morrison government’s handling of the climate crisis and cost of living pressures registered greater levels of disapproval. Of those polled, 37% were less likely to vote for the government on climate, while 38% were not supportive of Morrison on cost of living.

    The poll of 1,069 voters was conducted from 3 to 6 February, before a torrid parliamentary fortnight in which the Morrison government dropped its religious discrimination bill and pivoted to national security to recover its poor standing in the polls.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/feb/22/poll-shows-hit-to-coalition-vote-over-covid-handling-and-health-funding

  33. John Della Bosca. Lol. The husband of Belinda ‘Don’t you know who I am!?! Neal. ROFL. Nice guy, shame about the poor performance when it counted. Fyi, I’m proud of doing my bit to expunge Belinda Neal from the NSW ALP.

  35. Last Wednesday Belarus and Lavrov were assuring suckers in the West that every single Russian soldier would leave Belarus the minute the drills were over. Now they are there indefinitely. Why didn’t Biden give the Western Suckers the raw data on those 30,000 Russian troops in Belarus?

    Western suckers would also have niftily forgotten about the people of Belarus. They certainly have NOT been wringing their hands about those poor bastards. They were trying the equivalent of a Hong Kong style pro democracy revolt but were squashed viciously with the assistance of Putin.

    Although everyone on Bludger knows that tanks are useless and a waste of money it turns out that the Russian main battle tanks can reach Kyiv from Belarus without refueling. With good going they can be there in a couple of days.

    In his last discussion with Macron Putin was whinging about Ukraine breaking the Minsk Agreements and the follow-up Quad Agreements. Suckers would possibly not have realized that Putin himself has broken these Agreements serially as have his Donbas puppets.

    Suckers would possibly be astonished that Putin is untrustworthy his Ukraine territory grab No 2 by recognizing two statelets.

    Suckers in the West would now no doubt be surprised that Russian tanks can move into the Donbas ‘republics’ without actually invading Ukraine. A nice move would be for Putin to ensure that the tanks are grainy and are, in fact, the tanks that were previously withdrawn from Crimea.

    Anyhoo, it is high time for the Western Intelligentsia getting back to what this is all really about: Ukraine negotiating in bad faith, Ukraine breaking various Agreements, Biden lying about Putin’s intentions, Biden lying to the American people, Biden witholding raw data, Biden splitting NATO, Biden holding European states hostage, Biden having a completely empty toolkit, Biden providing grainy images, the US providing fake data in the Gulf of Tonkin 58 years ago, and the complete uselessness of Western Sanctions. We get the point.

  36. Resolve poll is out – no 2PP…

    The findings are part of a new survey that shows the Coalition’s primary vote has slipped from 34 to 33 per cent over the past month while Labor’s core support held at 35 per cent.

    The Resolve Political Monitor, conducted for The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age by research company Resolve Strategic, finds the Greens have held their primary vote at 10 per cent while smaller parties and independents have the remaining 22 per cent.

    The Coalition gained 41 per cent of the primary vote at the last election but is now at its lowest level since the Resolve surveys began last April, leading Resolve director Jim Reed to say the Coalition was close to “rock bottom” with its base support.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/voters-cut-support-for-scott-morrison-following-debate-about-national-security-leadership-20220221-p59yc8.html

  37. “ China’s PLAN had 100% right to be where it was and it had 100% right to try and run subs under the noise shadow of surface units. All navies with subs try it.”

    And the RAAF has a right to drop sonar bouys and do close surveillance, BUT there are consequences of those sorts of actions.

    It is not credible to think that if china sent an offensive weapons platform to conduct close surveillance of RAN warships doing Freedumbs of Navigation in the South China Sea, that the Phoenix CIWS of our ships would be simply deactivated. …

    Putting aside the bellicose idiocy of the likes of Dutton for one moment, the greatest chance there is of an escalating to out of control kinetic war we face is, someone making a mistake. These sorts of brinkmanship on the high seas are exactly the sort of scenarios that give rise to likely mistakes being made.

  38. ScoMo support evaporating..

    Voters have cut their support for Prime Minister Scott Morrison during a fierce political argument over leadership and national security, with 56 per cent saying he is doing a poor job compared to 50 per cent one month ago.

    Only 38 per cent of voters believe Mr Morrison is doing a good job, down from 41 per cent last month, in a setback for the government as it struggles to win back Australians before the election due by May

  39. I must admit that I am enjoying the consternation at the disproportionate power of someone who owns $20 billion when that $20 billion is on the wRONg side.

    These same corrupt whackers suck up Palmer’s preferences without blinking.

  41. “ John Della Bosca. Lol. The husband of Belinda ‘Don’t you know who I am!?! Neal. ROFL. Nice guy, shame about the poor performance when it counted. Fyi, I’m proud of doing my bit to expunge Belinda Neal from the NSW ALP.”

    Point missed. C@t running off at a tangent, like a cat chasing a ball of wool.

    Regardless of his personal flaws, there is no doubt Della ran an effective machine as Gen. Sec. The rot really set in after he left head office. It’s been generally shit since then. The installation of Minns – especially the way it happened – is the latest iteration of merde.

  42. Actually both regiments of the Rum Corps need to get their act together but the Minns Brigade looks positively professional compared with the other shower which is taking itself to court to try and settle vicious power hunger disputes.

  43. “51.5-48.5 in Queensland (unchanged, a swing of about 10%)”…

    That alone, if repeated on election night, would Win the Election for the ALP (10 new seats added in Qld, according to A. Green’s electoral pendulum)… In addition, expected good results in other states would deliver a Catastrophe for the Coalition. But wait, there is more, good results for Progressive Independents in solid Liberal seats (especially in NSW and VIC) would deliver virtual Annihilation for the Coalition.

    Hey, Scomo, what’s your “pathway to victory”?…. Ha, ha, ha

  45. Resolve is always hard to make sense of – especially with the huge “other” vote, which means something different from Independent apparently. The way the results are presented and reported also serves to obscure more than clarify. (It’s almost as if they don’t want to be caught out expressing anything resembling a view on the probability of electoral outcomes even at a point of time, which is kinda the point of polling I’d have thought.)

    However this data point, and the commentary, is informative:

    “The Coalition gained 41 per cent of the primary vote at the last election but is now at its lowest level since the Resolve surveys began last April, leading Resolve director Jim Reed to say the Coalition was close to “rock bottom” with its base support.

    “History tells us that the Coalition does not drop below one-third of the primary vote. That’s their base level of support regardless of circumstances, and they’re bouncing along at that level now,” he said.”

  46. They create the dysfunction, and then use it as an excuse to get what they want. We need to stand up to those seeking to pull strings in the background.

    Concetta Fierravanti-Wells

    The Liberal senator pointed the finger at Immigration Minister Alex Hawke (who represents the prime minister) for the preselection drama raging in NSW at the moment, saying he created a sense of crisis to make sure the federal Coalition could get involved.

  48. Alpo

    ‘Hey, Scomo, what’s your “pathway to victory”?…. Ha, ha, ha’
    ——————————-
    I wish you wouldn’t say that.

  49. Morgans NSW state numbers seems significant, but considering the context of the Liberal Party taking itself to the high court over who should be in charge, its understandable people are less supportive of them.

  50. The weird thing; the coalition is putting a lot of effort into conforming the voters view. You control CCP influence for sure, but you don’t start a war with your main trading partner and you don’t start a war you will lose.

    Buzzing a war ship and dropping sonar buoys, right thing to do if it is in your area, expecting the war ship to turn off their defense systems, come on guys tone down the bullshit.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/feb/22/more-voters-trust-labor-than-coalition-to-manage-australia-china-relationship-poll-suggests

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