Essential Research and Roy Morgan polls (and Resolve Strategic too)

One pollster moves closer to the pack by recording movement to Labor, while another remains consistent in projecting a Labor landslide.

Two new polls that have come down the chute overnight:

• Essential Research’s voting intention numbers, which will now be reportedly every fortnight, have Labor up three to 38%, the Coalition down two to 35%, the Greens steady on 9%, One Nation up one to 5%, the United Australia Party up one to 3% and undecided down two to 6%. The pollster’s “2PP+” measure has Labor up two to 49%, the Coalition down one to 45% and undecided down one to 6%. The poll also features the monthly leadership ratings, which have Scott Morrison down two on approval to 44% and up three on disapproval to 49%, whereas Anthony Albanese is up three on approval to 42% and steady on 39% disapproval. Morrison leads 40-35 on preferred prime minister, in from 42-34 a month ago. These results, together with breakdowns by state, age cohort, gender and more besides, can be found on the pollster’s website. I note that One Nation’s increase to their equal highest level for the past term is driven by a six-point increase in Queensland to 10%, though I’d want to see that repeated before reading anything into it.

The report in The Guardian features results from the survey’s attitudinal questions. Several of these relate to the particularly pertinent question of Australia’s relationship with China, and like just about everything else from these polls, the results are not encouraging for the government: 37% said they had more trust in Labor to manage the relationship compared with 28% for the Coalition and 34% for unsure. Sixty-one per cent regard the relationship as “a complex dynamic to be managed”, with only 26% preferring an alternative characterisation as “a threat to be confronted”.

The Essential poll was conducted online from Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1089. Further results from the poll, including the regular series on federal and state government COVID-19 management, will presumably be along with the full report later today.

• Also out is the latest fortnightly result from Roy Morgan, which seems to have introduced a longer delay between its field work and the release of the results for whatever reason. The latest numbers are even worse for the Coalition than the last: they are steady on 33% of the primary vote, with Labor up one to 38.5%, the Greens steady on 11.5%, One Nation up half to 4%, the United Australia Party down half to 1.5% and independents steady on 8%. The respondent-allocated two-party measure, which for this pollster at least is consistenly more favourable for Labor than the previous election preferences method would be, has Labor’s lead out from 56.5-43.6 to 57-43.

State two-party breakdowns are provided, showing Labor leading 59-41 in New South Wales (out from 54-46 for a swing of about 11.5%), 57.5-42.5 in Victoria (in from 59-41, a swing of about 4.5%), 51.5-48.5 in Queensland (unchanged, a swing of about 10%), 53.5-46.5 in Western Australia (in from 55.5-44.5, a swing of about 9%), 59.5-40.5 in South Australia (in from 64-36, a swing of about 9%) and 65-35 in Tasmania (out from 61.5-38.5, a swing of about 9%). The poll was conducted online and by phone from January 31 to February 13 from a sample of 2796.

I have updated the BludgerTrack poll (though I’m going to hold off updating the state-level trends for a bit for commercial reasons), which now shows Labor’s lead exceeding 56-44 and the two leaders’ net satisfaction ratings crossing paths, putting Albanese ahead for the first time since the onset of the pandemic. If that’s still not enough fresh content for you, note my newly published South Australian election guide and the introductory blog post and thread below, if you have any thoughts you would like to share concerning a campaign now officially in its first week.

UPDATE (Resolve Strategic): Now we have the monthly Resolve Strategic poll for the Age/Herald, which records the Coalition down one to 33%, Labor steady at 35%, the Greens down one to 10% and One Nation steady on 3%, independents down one to 10% and “others” up three to 9%.

Resolve Strategic doesn’t publish two-party numbers, but this comes out at a Labor lead of about 53-47 based on previous election preferences. The state breakdowns imply about 52-48 to Labor in New South Wales, 53.5-46.5 in Victoria and 50-50 in Queensland, for respective swings to Labor of about 4%, 0.5% and 8.5%. Contra Essential Research, One Nation is down four points in Queensland to 9%.

Scott Morrison’s personal ratings have significantly deteriorated, his approval down three to 38% and disapproval up six to 56%, while Anthony Albanese is respectively up two to 36% and up one to 42%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister has nonetheless widened slightly, from 38-31 to 39-30. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Sunday from a sample of 1604.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,572 comments on “Essential Research and Roy Morgan polls (and Resolve Strategic too)”

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  1. Quasar @ #2467 Friday, February 25th, 2022 – 8:33 pm

    Are there any EV owners/ drivers on this blog? Am wanting to trade-in my hybrid for an EV but need to convince HI who thinks I’m wasting my time.

    Yes, Tesla 3 here. Amazing vehicle. Drive one for a week and every other car will immediately feel broken. Charges from solar (with house batteries to fill in any gaps, timeshft if needed, etc.), so virtually no running costs (or emissions). Virtually no maintenance costs so far either (in 2.5 years I’ve replaced the wiper blades and topped up the windscreen fluid, and will be up for a new set of tires in another few months or so, and that’s it).

    Mostly drive it around locally, but it does weekend roadtrips just fine too. Here’s my last 5,000 kms:

    Get one. The only people I ever see expressing dissatisfaction after buying an EV are of the “it doesn’t make loud noises so I don’t like it” sort. To which I can only wonder incredulously about whether they simply never figured out how the stereo works. The sound systems in these cars (or at least, the Tesla ones) are outstanding. So much better than even the best engine noise.

  2. Snappy Tom

    There was a marked shift in efforts to maintain and upgrade the Russian Navy in the past decade as Russia’s finances improved from oil revenues. They are building roughly one new SSN/SSBN per year. The older Typhoon SSBNs are almost all retired, but the remaining Delta IVs have been re-equipped with newer missiles and all Borei Class are new. So most remaining Russian SSBNs must be regarded as a threat. There is a useful summary here.

    These days satellites make it very easy to track ships, so many sources I read consider surface fleets of marginal value near an enemy with lots of planes or ground based missiles (e.g. China). So lots of navies are building subs, because they can survive.

    I have in the past always been wary of military adventurism, but I am concerned by both Xi and Putin now. Both are dangerous despots, who will not voluntarily let go of power. So while I was opposed to our sending troops to Iraq, and staying in Afghanistan after Bin Laden was gone, I think we have to defend ourselves now. In my view that means building subs, and perhaps more warships.

  3. Really sorry to hear of Lizzie’s passing.

    A true stalwart of the site and seemed just a lovely lady. I’ll miss her insights, and the familiarity of seeing her avatar and username on the site as I scroll through. I always enjoyed her contributions and will miss them, and her.

    Vale comrade.

  4. C@tmommasays:
    Friday, February 25, 2022 at 9:42 pm
    Asha @ #2471 Friday, February 25th, 2022 – 9:40 pm


    Oh, I’m under no illusions as to the “quality” of the candidates likely to replace the Liberal MPs facing preselection challenges. But it sure is amusing watching the chaos unfold.

    But you know what will really piss me off? Scott Morrison will turn up for work the day after it’s all sorted out and carry on as if it never happened.

    One of the comments from above article:
    HappyValley4 HOURS AGO
    Water off a duck’s back . It won’t even register with Scooter – he’ll just push through like with COVID.

  5. Vale lizzie,

    I have many fond memories of you here.

    This abomination to the English language was posted just before zoomster’s announcement of your passing, so I post it in your memory, as I know you took great pride in how the language was used and would have rightly condemned such an abuse as this is.

    Be free now, amongst the birds you loved.

    Astrobleme @ #2132 Friday, February 25th, 2022 – 10:14 am

    … We can’t take learnings from that time and apply it here. …

  6. Now I know Putin has become megalomaniacally deranged. He’s put out a press release saying that the radiation levels at Chernobyl aren’t as bad as the Ukrainians said they were.

  7. imacca

    So….thats what is meant by the term “Shit Sandwich” then??

    It’s an inverse shit sandwich. A slice of white bread between two layers of merde.

  8. The other thing worth highlighting, for me at least, with the Tesla, is a significant drop in driver fatigue, for all the fairly obvious reasons: heavy base with lovely road handling, beautifully efficient hardware and software design, and of course, auto-pilot and FSD.

  9. Are there sufficient charging places for electric vehicles? Last time I looked, it was a bit like mobile phone coverage in the 90s. We’ll get there eventually I suppose but we don’t seem to be there yet. It would help if we had a Government that supported fossil fuel replacement.

    I briefly drove a hybrid vehicle a few years ago – a replacement while mine was in for repairs. I found the different controls and lack of engine sound a bit disconcerting at first. There’s a bit of a learning curve

  10. I refuse to admit that I had anything to do with Shirley Finn* albeit, in my innocence, I once awoke beside her, nor did I once frequent Saffron’s “Venus Room”, nor have I ever heard of the “Taxi Club”, Darlo. Gawd, I’m glad I’ve got that off my chest, a vid I’ve just viewed bringing back chaste memories, not to mention the early openers in Woolloomooloo. I must have good genes?


  11. porotisays:
    Friday, February 25, 2022 at 9:24 pm
    Big SA newspoll in the Oz tomorrow…
    Give that slacker Bluey a tweak on the tentacle to see if we can get a forecast out of him.
    I thought Bluey had retired after his total misread of the 2019 election campaign. He had a shocker.
    Pretty sure I have his final scorecard stored on my phone. I will try to locate it if he starts forecasting again in 2022.

  12. thank you quasar for that fair dot org article on ukraine. it is a lucid examination of what is indeed a complex subject.

    there have been two (2) articles in BK’s dawn patrol this week about how media have degenerated into propaganda arms of the state. fair dot org contributes to this debate by examining, with exhaustive referencing, recent (since 2014) media reports on various aspects of current events in ukraine, and how media reporting of these aspects fail their “duty” to report all the facts.

    in return may i offer you this piece from geohistory dot today discussing ukraine’s neo-nazi problem :-

  13. Steve

    We have few chargers by international standards, but also low EV sales by comparison to almost all countries.

    However its a bit of a non-issue. EV range is getting longer; a Tesla 3 comfortablyn does 400km between charges. Victorian surveys show that over 80% of EVs get charged at home each night any way.

    I think charging and range anxiety are issues raised by people who have no intention of buying an EV.

  14. Touching tributes to Lizzie …hope she and KayJay will continue to join us , albeit from another dimension. Some of you brought a tear to my eye.

  15. Venus room – is/was that a planetarium? Or maybe you got it mixed up with a “venous room” where you get treated for vascular problems…

  16. Chrisken:

    Friday, February 25, 2022 at 11:40 pm

    [‘Touching tributes to Lizzie …hope she and KayJay will continue to join us , albeit from another dimension. Some of you brought a tear to my eye.’]

    Well said.

  17. ParkySPsays:
    Friday, February 25, 2022 at 9:06 pm
    What did you think of the population growth and out of control development down this way? Not much countryside between Geelong and Torquay these days.
    All started with Coker when she was Mayor of the Surf Coast Shire Council.

  18. Socrates @1140. Thank you.

    ” I think charging and range anxiety are issues raised by people who have no intention of buying an EV.”

    I’m thinking of replacing my Holden Commodore, bought new back when Labor was still in power. I’m looking at the options.

  19. Steve777:

    Friday, February 25, 2022 at 11:42 pm

    [‘Venus room – is/was that a planetarium? Or maybe you got it mixed up with a “venous room” where you get treated for vascular problems…’]

    You’re not showing your age. It was a grotty bar in the Cross, where one’s desires could be satisfied for a cost. I’m sure I saw you there once?

  20. I am a lurker; I almost never speak , but read the comments on here with interest. But I want to add my voice to the people who have said, “Vale Lizzie”.

  21. Steve777 @ #2513 Friday, February 25th, 2022 – 10:26 pm

    Are there sufficient charging places for electric vehicles?

    Yes, it’s fine.

    The vast majority of charging occurs at home. Third-party chargers are only really needed for road-trips. And while there aren’t tons of them around, there are enough to get you where you’re going. At least if you’re sticking to the coastal areas. Wouldn’t necessarily recommend taking an EV trekking through the outback at the moment. Anything short of that, however, and you’ll find charging options.

  22. Steve777says:
    Friday, February 25, 2022 at 11:26 pm

    Most charge at home and only ever need a charging station when on a trip.
    The Tesla will even tell you where to nearest charger is.
    The driving experience in a Tesla is unbelievable.

  23. Steve

    Fair enough. We have a Prius but our next car will be an EV. I would not buy a new petrol car now. They are sure to lose value as more EV models come on the Australian market.

  24. Quasar:

    Are there any EV owners/ drivers on this blog? Am wanting to trade-in my hybrid for an EV but need to convince HI who thinks I’m wasting my time.

    We converted to an EV a little over 2 years ago. In short, there’s zero chance I’d ever go back to an ICE vehicle.

  25. Have just watched a video clip of a tearful young Ukranian father saying goodbye to his young children as he stays behind to fight.
    Why aren’t parents of young children exempt and those either past childbearing age or those without , including women , the ones in the army?
    Or am I just an idealist?

  26. Steve777: is a good resource to see how many chargers are about.

    As others have said, as long as you have off-street parking with power then you’ll charge at home almost all the time.

    Multiple people have done the “big lap” in EVs already.

  27. Quasar says Saturday, February 26, 2022 at 1:07 am

    Have just watched a video clip of a tearful young Ukranian father saying goodbye to his young children as he stays behind to fight.
    Why aren’t parents of young children exempt and those either past childbearing age or those without , including women , the ones in the army?
    Or am I just an idealist?

    There are reports that this video is of a Russian 4 days earlier. See

    There are reports the Russians were busing people out of the occupied areas of Ukraine prior to the invasion.

  28. Re the Russian invasion of the Ukraine. I believe that the best possible response (acknowledging in advance that no response will be perfect) would be something similar to this:

    1. Immediately open military supply chains to the Ukrainian armed forces, ensuring that they are as well-equipped as possible for this conflict – this gives Kyiv the best possible chance for surviving this conflict in something like fighting shape. Combine with financial support to improve the post-conflict chances of Ukraine doing well.

    2. Identify assets owned by Putin’s cronies outside of Russia – freeze most of those assets, outright confiscate the remainder. This sends the message to Putin & his cronies of, “We can hurt you. We will hurt you more unless you get him to pull his head in.”

    3. Organize short-notice NATO joint exercises in the Baltic, and on land in the Baltic states. This would send the message to Putin of, “There is a hard line – do NOT cross it, or else.”

    4. Start securing medium-term access to non-Russian gas for Europe – then shut off the Gazprom flow without notice. It may be 20-30% more expensive, but it sends Putin the message of, “We don’t need you – not as much as you need us.”

    Between these moves, I believe that they (a) minimize the likelihood of Putin benefiting from his current aggression, (b) act as a deterrent to future aggression, and (c) pressure his key supporters to pull him into line.

  29. I know it’s winter in Europe at present, but geeze it must be frosty up on the Space Station right now.

    Awkward, certainly.

    Pyotr Dubrov (software engineer) arrived on the ISS in April 2021; Anton Shkaplerov (the current ISS Commander) arrived in October 2021.

    The tweets from Dmitry Rogozin, the head of Roscosmos – and former Deputy Prime Minister of Russia – were “unhelpful”.

    Eric Berger @SciGuySpace

    Earlier today Russia’s space chief, Dmitry Rogozin, tweeted a thread in response to President Biden’s sanctions on Russia. Here, via Rob Mitchell, is a full translation of what he said:


    Rules and law or jungle and might.

    Aggression/ settlement/ colonisation, … calls to come to the aid of, false flag ops, fermenting grievances, supporting a cause across a line on a map, covert or overt aren’t exactly new.

    Neuremberg/ Tokyo Tribunals or not.

    Let’s see if social/ direct/ even liberal democracies (bottom up) still have the allies, partners and friends networks to contain/ rout authoritarians (top down) such as commies, theocrazies, fascists.

    Sigh, instead of more dough going to advance humanity it is going to things that blow up humanity.

  31. in return may i offer you this piece from geohistory dot today discussing ukraine’s neo-nazi problem :-

    And let me see your Ukrainian ‘nazi problem’ and raise you Russia’s much, much larger Neo Nazi problem:

    Good to know you continue to push the Russian line, alfred venison:

    Promoting the notion of “Russia for Russians and compatriots”, members of the party (sometimes called Barkashovites) endorse policies including the expulsion of minorities that “have their homeland outside Russia”, especially Jews and migrants from the South Caucasus such as Azeri, Georgians and Armenians as well Central Asian nationalities such as Kazakhs, Uzbeks, Tajiks, and others. Their vision of Russia is divided into privileged ethnic Russians and “compatriots”, i.e. non-Russians who live in Russia and have their national homeland there, including indigenous populations of Russian Far East, North, Turkic and some other minorities. While they consider these “compatriots” to be entitled to live in Russia, the RNU nonetheless condemns any inter-ethnic and inter-racial marriages, claiming that “they create psychological troubles of self-identification for children from such marriages”

    Really good to know that you are supporting the government of White Russian Supremacy and Anti Semitism.

    Also, parrotting the Russian government line:

    MOSCOW, February 25. /TASS/. The current Kiev authorities are being controlled by Western states led by the US, and by proponents of neo-Nazism, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said at a press conference Friday.

    You do it subtly, alfred venison, but you do it nonetheless.

  32. I to would like to pay my respects to Lizzie for the thorough effort she put into her contribution to this blog. She certainly lifted the standard in so many ways. I used this blog in my Politics classes and her contribution was frequently remarked upon. Sadly some of the other contributions turned some of the group off Politics.

  33. Can highly recommend EVs….tho we dont have a Tesla, we have had a Nissan Leaf for 3 years,,,,Its the perfect town car. Drive to work, drive back, drive to the shops, charge it overnight ….ready to go again in the morning. We have spent literally nothing on fuel as we have teamed the EV with 8kw rooftop solar and a 10kw battery. No fuel costs, little servicing costs (there is nothing to breakdown or any fluids to replace. Plus no electricity costs for home. Only regrets are we should have done it sooner and should have packed the roof with even more panels……Next project……change the other car over to an EV. Cant afford a Tesla, but shopping around at the moment.

  34. The headline

    Greens target Queensland as new battleground in balance of power bid

    The content

    But Bandt himself also went out of his way to rule out any ‘coalition’ in an opinion piece in The Australian this month. That came after the Greens suffered their biggest drop in Newspoll figures in a decade, recording just an 8% primary in mid-February.

    It is interesting that Bandt is backing away from the Greens standard bullshit, perhaps it is sinking in that people are fed up with the damage they do, or is it they are looking at the poll success of the teals.

  35. Taylormadesays:
    Friday, February 25, 2022 at 11:51 pm
    Friday, February 25, 2022 at 9:06 pm
    What did you think of the population growth and out of control development down this way? Not much countryside between Geelong and Torquay these days.
    All started with Coker when she was Mayor of the Surf Coast Shire Council
    My parents moved to ‘old’ Ocean Grove 20 years ago and yes it’s been massive going from the Bellarine Hwy into Ocean Grove over that time. The one thing I would say is that at least infrastructure has being built to support the housing estates as they’ve been built. eg The Kingston shopping centre precinct is there to support those people moving there.
    By comparison in Wagga Wagga there are two very large suburbs that in that time have expanded similarly and it is only just now that shopping centres are being built in them. The other thing is potholes. Noticeable lack of them compared to Wagga!
    As I keep saying the government money in Corangamite is so stark compared to the Riverina electorate. On that one both major parties have played their part so I’m attempting to point it out as even handedly as I can.
    One last thing, it was bloody nice to get out in the surf! My puppy loves it too which is great so I got a fill to sustain me for a bit 🙂

  36. alfred venison

    …..ukraine’s neo-nazi problem.

    You are just sprouting Putinist propaganda.

    It’s funny in a state supposedly quasi Nazi that the popular and democratically elected President and Prime Minister are both Jews.

    And note the recent plea from Putin (things not going so smoothly for him):

    “Russian dictator Vladimir Putin made another televised address, this time calling on the Ukrainian military to “take power in your own hands” and overthrow the country’s leadership, whom he claimed were “terrorists” and “a gang of drug addicts and neo-Nazis.”

    I think the fascist in this situation sits in Moscow not Kyiv.

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