Essential Research and Roy Morgan polls (and Resolve Strategic too)

One pollster moves closer to the pack by recording movement to Labor, while another remains consistent in projecting a Labor landslide.

Two new polls that have come down the chute overnight:

• Essential Research’s voting intention numbers, which will now be reportedly every fortnight, have Labor up three to 38%, the Coalition down two to 35%, the Greens steady on 9%, One Nation up one to 5%, the United Australia Party up one to 3% and undecided down two to 6%. The pollster’s “2PP+” measure has Labor up two to 49%, the Coalition down one to 45% and undecided down one to 6%. The poll also features the monthly leadership ratings, which have Scott Morrison down two on approval to 44% and up three on disapproval to 49%, whereas Anthony Albanese is up three on approval to 42% and steady on 39% disapproval. Morrison leads 40-35 on preferred prime minister, in from 42-34 a month ago. These results, together with breakdowns by state, age cohort, gender and more besides, can be found on the pollster’s website. I note that One Nation’s increase to their equal highest level for the past term is driven by a six-point increase in Queensland to 10%, though I’d want to see that repeated before reading anything into it.

The report in The Guardian features results from the survey’s attitudinal questions. Several of these relate to the particularly pertinent question of Australia’s relationship with China, and like just about everything else from these polls, the results are not encouraging for the government: 37% said they had more trust in Labor to manage the relationship compared with 28% for the Coalition and 34% for unsure. Sixty-one per cent regard the relationship as “a complex dynamic to be managed”, with only 26% preferring an alternative characterisation as “a threat to be confronted”.

The Essential poll was conducted online from Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1089. Further results from the poll, including the regular series on federal and state government COVID-19 management, will presumably be along with the full report later today.

• Also out is the latest fortnightly result from Roy Morgan, which seems to have introduced a longer delay between its field work and the release of the results for whatever reason. The latest numbers are even worse for the Coalition than the last: they are steady on 33% of the primary vote, with Labor up one to 38.5%, the Greens steady on 11.5%, One Nation up half to 4%, the United Australia Party down half to 1.5% and independents steady on 8%. The respondent-allocated two-party measure, which for this pollster at least is consistenly more favourable for Labor than the previous election preferences method would be, has Labor’s lead out from 56.5-43.6 to 57-43.

State two-party breakdowns are provided, showing Labor leading 59-41 in New South Wales (out from 54-46 for a swing of about 11.5%), 57.5-42.5 in Victoria (in from 59-41, a swing of about 4.5%), 51.5-48.5 in Queensland (unchanged, a swing of about 10%), 53.5-46.5 in Western Australia (in from 55.5-44.5, a swing of about 9%), 59.5-40.5 in South Australia (in from 64-36, a swing of about 9%) and 65-35 in Tasmania (out from 61.5-38.5, a swing of about 9%). The poll was conducted online and by phone from January 31 to February 13 from a sample of 2796.

I have updated the BludgerTrack poll (though I’m going to hold off updating the state-level trends for a bit for commercial reasons), which now shows Labor’s lead exceeding 56-44 and the two leaders’ net satisfaction ratings crossing paths, putting Albanese ahead for the first time since the onset of the pandemic. If that’s still not enough fresh content for you, note my newly published South Australian election guide and the introductory blog post and thread below, if you have any thoughts you would like to share concerning a campaign now officially in its first week.

UPDATE (Resolve Strategic): Now we have the monthly Resolve Strategic poll for the Age/Herald, which records the Coalition down one to 33%, Labor steady at 35%, the Greens down one to 10% and One Nation steady on 3%, independents down one to 10% and “others” up three to 9%.

Resolve Strategic doesn’t publish two-party numbers, but this comes out at a Labor lead of about 53-47 based on previous election preferences. The state breakdowns imply about 52-48 to Labor in New South Wales, 53.5-46.5 in Victoria and 50-50 in Queensland, for respective swings to Labor of about 4%, 0.5% and 8.5%. Contra Essential Research, One Nation is down four points in Queensland to 9%.

Scott Morrison’s personal ratings have significantly deteriorated, his approval down three to 38% and disapproval up six to 56%, while Anthony Albanese is respectively up two to 36% and up one to 42%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister has nonetheless widened slightly, from 38-31 to 39-30. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Sunday from a sample of 1604.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,572 comments on “Essential Research and Roy Morgan polls (and Resolve Strategic too)”

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  1. I’ve driven from Corangamite to Riverina* today so just caught up on the news of Lizzie. Very sad and I’ll keep her in mind whilst I’m helping with the up and coming campaign in Riverina.

    tldr go to bottom…

    So in the spirit of Lizzie here’s some of my thoughts after a 6 hour drive. She may not have agreed with them but I feel that’s ok as I would have liked to hear her point of view in return:

    1. I drove down to see my parents. Dad was 3 when his Dad was killed in WW2 defending Australia. He hates war as much as any person could. He thinks the time for sanctions is done and not let the current Russian actions take hold. I said to him if this was Darwin being bombed again we’d be screaming out for help. Yep, he said you need to defend yourself or when time comes help out your mates.

    2. The U.S has lost so much skin over the past 20 years but I wonder if this is the time for them to give a reminder of why the world looked to them. A democratic country under attack for no other reason than a fascist (sorry democratically elected) leader wanting to etch his name in a Russian mythology. The U.S could be a shining light if they do the right thing in the next week.

    3. I didn’t know whether to laugh or cry at Stephanie Asher’s office in Ocean Grove. They’ve got it looking to all the world like she is the member for Corangamite. Hint Stephanie, Libby Coker is still the member for Corangamite until your leader scurries to see the GG and then everything crossed will be again after and you can pull down your deceptive office. Meanwhile I think here in Riverina it will be kitchen tables worn out for the ALP. Not sure democracy is enhanced by such disparity.

    4. Khaki election worries for the ALP needs a line. This is my start to workshop. “If you can’t run aged care successfully how can you possibly look after Australia’s national security in these times?” The answer to every journalist every single time.

    eg “What is your response to the PM when he says we need a ‘safe pair of hands at this worrying time….?”….”If you can’t run aged care successfully how can you possibly be given the responsibility for Australia’s national security ?”

    anyway lots of time to think and ruminate on a long drive.

    * just to give people a geographical sense

    Vale Lizzie

  2. Quasar: “This article re Ukraine is complex.
    https://fair.org/home/what-you-should-really-know-about-ukraine/

    Not complex, just crap. More of the endless self-hating Chomsky-esque nonsense trying to show that no matter what terrible things Putin/Xi/ISIS/etc. might do, the responsibility still 100% rests with the US.

    Americans are so solipsistic that even their radical left can’t accept the idea that there are significant actors in world politics other than the US.

  3. Meher

    Americans are so solipsistic that even their radical left can’t accept the idea that there are significant actors in world politics other than the US.

    ________________________________

    I love that. So true.

  4. Dr Bonham

    Again I am paywalled out but accompanying info includes that Malinauskas is “trouncing” Marshall as preferred Premier. I would assume from this the voting intentions for SA Libs are not too hot either.

  5. The argument that “We can’t turn off SWIFT to the Russians because they will develop a new system outside of it and they have already developed a system so we need to hold back until they have completely developed it, so that we can no longer use SWIFT as a threat” makes absolutely no sense.

    SWIFT needs to be turned off before they come up with a way of getting around so it at least hurts them for a little while.

  6. Big SA newspoll in the Oz tomorrow theaustralian.com.au/nation/south-a…

    Give that slacker Bluey a tweak on the tentacle to see if we can get a forecast out of him.

  7. The argument that “We can’t turn off SWIFT to the Russians because they will develop a new system

    ABC News interviewed a NY “expert”.. Russia & China already have their version Swift.. small but there, he said the west may be loathe to throw the Swift switch because it would increase competition from SPFS

    SPFS is a Russian equivalent of the SWIFT financial transfer system, developed by the Central Bank of Russia. The system has been in development since 2014, after the United States government threatened to disconnect Russia from the SWIFT system. Wikipedia

    They should do it anyway… show some intent & hang the consequences

  8. Asha @ #2417 Friday, February 25th, 2022 – 7:58 pm

    Very interesting developments re the NSW Liberals. We might see a few sitting MPs rolled by a very pissed off rank-and-file soon.

    Only to be replaced by the Ultra Conservative Catholics that are seeking to replace them. Be careful what you wish for I guess. I think it just shows us that the Liberal Party at the moment are between the devil and the deep blue sea. On the one hand, Opus Dei Catholics want to take it over, on the other hand Pentecostals want to take it over. In the middle of the sandwich are the Moderates.

  9. #saparli #Newspoll 53-47 to ALP. Malinauskas leads 46-39 as Better Premier. Dissatisfaction scores Marshall 47 Malinauskas 31.

  10. Are there any EV owners/ drivers on this blog? Am wanting to trade-in my hybrid for an EV but need to convince HI who thinks I’m wasting my time.

  11. I just had a big cry over the phone to my son about lizzie. I feel better but I don’t, if you get what I mean. 🙁

    I imagined her to be like a little pixie with a twinkle in her eye and still loving life after all she had been through. What a great example to us all.

  12. It’s a cold winter. The commentator on France 24 was suggesting that if they turn off SWIFT, then the gas gets turned off. On the other hand, Putin turning the gas off would none too slowly see SWIFT turned off.

  13. C@t:

    Oh, I’m under no illusions as to the “quality” of the candidates likely to replace the Liberal MPs facing preselection challenges. But it sure is amusing watching the chaos unfold.

  14. ItzaDream @ #2468 Friday, February 25th, 2022 – 9:35 pm

    It’s a cold winter. The commentator on France 24 was suggesting that if they turn off SWIFT, then the gas gets turned off. On the other hand, Putin turning the gas off would none too slowly see SWIFT turned off.

    That’s the one thought that has been turning over in my mind. It should and could be done because the Northern Hemisphere is coming into Spring soon. Maybe don’t turn off the Russian gas supply immediately but plan to do it once alternative supplies can be sourced and the weather warms up. Putin can’t be allowed to take Ukraine with impunity.

    I also keep thinking that something similar to SWIFT should be engineered that excludes Russia and its satellite states. If they built SWIFT then they could build another similar platform and then transfer countries over to it. Putin makes long term plans, why can’t the West?

  15. Ven @ #2405 Friday, February 25th, 2022 – 5:58 pm

    This to say: And combined might of Europe and US could not stop it.

    That may be taking it too far. They were too cowardly to even try. Too meek even to threaten putting their might into stopping Putin, let alone actually do it. Too uninspired to do anything other than telegraph their weak-ass sanctions so that Putin understood he’d face no real resistance or consequences whatsoever. Too internally divided and too used to being comfortable to even do slightly better sanctions like cutting Russia off from SWIFT.

    Doesn’t matter how much might anyone has if they’ve forgotten how to use it.

  16. Asha @ #2471 Friday, February 25th, 2022 – 9:40 pm

    C@t:

    Oh, I’m under no illusions as to the “quality” of the candidates likely to replace the Liberal MPs facing preselection challenges. But it sure is amusing watching the chaos unfold.

    But you know what will really piss me off? Scott Morrison will turn up for work the day after it’s all sorted out and carry on as if it never happened.

  17. Australian LNG to help Europe ..

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-27/why-australia-is-offering-natural-gas-to-europe-ukraine-tensions/100784520

    The program director of energy at the Grattan Institute, Tony Wood, says the US is trying to coordinate the diversification, with Australian gas already used to supplement supplies.

    “I’m sure the conversations are being had (but) it doesn’t mean that Australia actually supplies its gas to Europe — Australia is a long way from Europe,” he told the ABC.

    “It could mean that gas that otherwise might go to Asia is diverted to Europe and then Australian gas replaces that gas in Asia.”

    Transfer substitution?

    Just a short while till the US takes what they called “the nuclear option”.. negotiated SWIFT blockade of Russia.

  18. Quasar @ #2466 Friday, February 25th, 2022 – 9:33 pm

    Are there any EV owners/ drivers on this blog? Am wanting to trade-in my hybrid for an EV but need to convince HI who thinks I’m wasting my time.

    Only because you asked nicely – I drive a Tesla 3. I’m sure I’m not the only one on the board, judging by other’s past comments. I needed a new car. I was quite attached to my old Merc wagon, but it was nudging 500,000 kms, and OH was saying things like: you’ll be the old bald guy who breaks down in the M5 Tunnel. Makes you think. And it was getting a bit pricey to maintain. So … new car, and pretty certainly my last car. So … definitely had to be electric. There is only one electric car to consider imo, and that’s Tesla, especially as its the only one making any solid progress on Full Self Drive, and at the moment, the only one with reliable strategically placed charging stations. Driving it is driving tomorrow’s car. I absolutely love it.

    (We sold the old Merc privately, for a song. They were fighting over it. Happy to talk off board if ever you want. OH is more techy about it all, but, fair warning, an extreme fan.)


  19. Quasarsays:
    Friday, February 25, 2022 at 8:07 pm
    Tony Windsor-
    ‘ Does anyone know the status of the John Howard uranium export agreement with Russia in 2007? Does it still exist?’

    Yeah what happened to that. It was signed on September 8th, 2007.

  20. Sceptic,
    That’s what I heard earlier today. Because it isn’t cost effective to send Aus LNG to Europe, our gas could go to Asia and America’s LNG just needs to go across the Atlantic. However, in time, I believe that a pipeline will be built from Africa, as well as Qatar in the Persian Gulf, to Europe.

    It’s interesting to contemplate who in Asia will be buying our gas? China perhaps? 🙂

  21. “Following Russia’s intervention in Ukraine and purported annexation of Crimea, Australia introduced autonomous sanctions and travel bans against designated persons and entities in relation to Russia. On 3 September 2014, Prime Minister Abbott announced the suspension of Australian uranium sales to Russia until further notice.”

    https://www.dfat.gov.au/geo/russia/Pages/australia-russia-nuclear-cooperation-agreement-frequently-asked-questions-faq

  22. I’ve mentioned this before, but my understanding of the German submarine bid was that it included us getting the bazillions back from selling them gas.

  23. Australian Constitution reads

    6. Definitions
    The Commonwealth shall mean the Commonwealth of Australia as established under this Act.

    The States shall mean such of the colonies of New South Wales, New Zealand, Queensland, Tasmania, Victoria, Western Australia, and South Australia, including the northern territory of South Australia, as for the time being are parts of the Commonwealth, and such colonies or territories as may be admitted into or established by the Commonwealth as States; and each of such parts of the Commonwealth shall be called a State.

    Original States shall mean such States as are parts of the Commonwealth at its establishment.

    Question . Does this mean that Australia can use the Russian convention and invade New Zealand ?

    I know its stupid but so is Ukraine

  24. Yes, Mavis (from the previous page,) I am a man of the cloth.

    I have no expertise on military technology.

    I am also no longer a devotee of non-violent activism (which I think works in a society that accurately believes itself to have a sense of justice, so not today’s Russia.)

    I guess I’ve read a variety of commentary about Russia struggling to maintain its military forces following the dissolution of the Soviet Union.

    For example, Wikipedia indicates that 6 of Russia’s 11 missile subs are from the Soviet era. While America’s missile subs are also not new, it’s pretty clear they enjoy a qualitative superiority over their Russian equivalents.

    Also, I have not been able to determine whether the older Russian subs are still armed with liquid-fueled missiles. Why is this important? Liquid fuels for ballistic missiles are usually highly corrosive and toxic – much worse than, say, kerosene. So corrosive, in fact, that the fuel could not be stored in the missile for any significant period of time. Russian liquid-fueled missiles had to be fueled from tanks within the submarine before they could be launched, which meant pumping toxic, highly corrosive liquids into missiles, at sea, potentially under combat stress.

    Russian subs in general, and their missile subs in particular, have always had a much higher accident/fatality rate than Western submarines.

    Why would a man of the cloth be interested in this stuff? My father lived through World War 2 in Britain. That was a ‘just war’ (such a much-abused term) if ever there was one. Putin is inflicting deadly injustice on the people of Ukraine. How is he to be stopped? What policy decisions could be taken? What might be a realistic assessment of his capacities vs his possible opponents?

    I am not a pacifist.

  25. Quasar

    I don’t yet own an EV but Xanthippe and I have some money set aside and wait to see what happens to policy and range on sale in Australia.

    I have done a fair bit of analysis of them through work. I am strongly pro-EV:
    1. Climate wise, an EV + home solar panels is an unbeatable low impact transport solution. It is the future of a habitable planet. Claims to the contrary are noise.
    2. Tech wise Tesla is the clear leader and the Tesla 3 is great value.
    3. EVs are now reliable, well developed technology. Runnig costs are low – both maintenance and power. Other good examples are the Nissan Leaf, Hyundai Kona or Ioniq 5.
    4. As your state’s electricity grid gets greener, EVs become better and better for the environment, but they are already better than all alternatives.

    The Good Car Company is importing second hand EVs at reasonable prices.

  26. Greece, Israel and Cyprus today (edit. 2 years ago?0signed an agreement to build an undersea pipeline to ferry natural gas from offshore fields in the eastern Mediterranean to Europe, a project that would ease the European Union’s energy dependence on Russia.

    The 1,300-mile “EastMed pipeline” will connect recently discovered gas fields beneath the sea floor of the southeastern Mediterranean to Greece, and from Greece to a nexus of energy pipelines in Italy that feeds Europe

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottcarpenter/2020/01/02/new-gas-pipeline-deal-gives-europe-access-to-eastern-mediterranean-reserves-angering-turkey/?sh=7edb7a9a1c69

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottcarpenter/2020/01/02/new-gas-pipeline-deal-gives-europe-access-to-eastern-mediterranean-reserves-angering-turkey/?sh=7edb7a9a1c69

  27. For me, what would be really ironic is if the Russian population hose this time to stage a revolution, given the preoccupation of the army elsewhere. Indeed, at the time of the Russian Revolution, the army was fighting in other parts of Europe against the Germans during the First World War.

  28. Harking back to last night’s ruminations on Ukraine, and music, and matters of the heart and soul – Briefly brought to attention the great great pianist Sviatoslav Teofilovich Richter, born in 1915 in Zhytomyr in what is now Ukraine.

    Richter’s repertoire ranged from Handel to Gershwin (see hyperlink). Briefly was listening to his Handel. I immediately associate him with Rachmaninoff, and then most of all with his Preludes, and concerti, but especially the Preludes, and especially the No 5 (Opus 23, number 5).

    As I hear it, the opening march is aggressively assertive and insistent, before devolving (01:10) into a lovely reflective lyrical middle section, bookended by a return to the march motif, which finally resolves if not into uncertainty, at least into a more gentle considered relief, perhaps optimism.

    https://youtu.be/8tgz3NvtTfw

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