Essential Research and Roy Morgan polls (and Resolve Strategic too)

One pollster moves closer to the pack by recording movement to Labor, while another remains consistent in projecting a Labor landslide.

Two new polls that have come down the chute overnight:

• Essential Research’s voting intention numbers, which will now be reportedly every fortnight, have Labor up three to 38%, the Coalition down two to 35%, the Greens steady on 9%, One Nation up one to 5%, the United Australia Party up one to 3% and undecided down two to 6%. The pollster’s “2PP+” measure has Labor up two to 49%, the Coalition down one to 45% and undecided down one to 6%. The poll also features the monthly leadership ratings, which have Scott Morrison down two on approval to 44% and up three on disapproval to 49%, whereas Anthony Albanese is up three on approval to 42% and steady on 39% disapproval. Morrison leads 40-35 on preferred prime minister, in from 42-34 a month ago. These results, together with breakdowns by state, age cohort, gender and more besides, can be found on the pollster’s website. I note that One Nation’s increase to their equal highest level for the past term is driven by a six-point increase in Queensland to 10%, though I’d want to see that repeated before reading anything into it.

The report in The Guardian features results from the survey’s attitudinal questions. Several of these relate to the particularly pertinent question of Australia’s relationship with China, and like just about everything else from these polls, the results are not encouraging for the government: 37% said they had more trust in Labor to manage the relationship compared with 28% for the Coalition and 34% for unsure. Sixty-one per cent regard the relationship as “a complex dynamic to be managed”, with only 26% preferring an alternative characterisation as “a threat to be confronted”.

The Essential poll was conducted online from Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1089. Further results from the poll, including the regular series on federal and state government COVID-19 management, will presumably be along with the full report later today.

• Also out is the latest fortnightly result from Roy Morgan, which seems to have introduced a longer delay between its field work and the release of the results for whatever reason. The latest numbers are even worse for the Coalition than the last: they are steady on 33% of the primary vote, with Labor up one to 38.5%, the Greens steady on 11.5%, One Nation up half to 4%, the United Australia Party down half to 1.5% and independents steady on 8%. The respondent-allocated two-party measure, which for this pollster at least is consistenly more favourable for Labor than the previous election preferences method would be, has Labor’s lead out from 56.5-43.6 to 57-43.

State two-party breakdowns are provided, showing Labor leading 59-41 in New South Wales (out from 54-46 for a swing of about 11.5%), 57.5-42.5 in Victoria (in from 59-41, a swing of about 4.5%), 51.5-48.5 in Queensland (unchanged, a swing of about 10%), 53.5-46.5 in Western Australia (in from 55.5-44.5, a swing of about 9%), 59.5-40.5 in South Australia (in from 64-36, a swing of about 9%) and 65-35 in Tasmania (out from 61.5-38.5, a swing of about 9%). The poll was conducted online and by phone from January 31 to February 13 from a sample of 2796.

I have updated the BludgerTrack poll (though I’m going to hold off updating the state-level trends for a bit for commercial reasons), which now shows Labor’s lead exceeding 56-44 and the two leaders’ net satisfaction ratings crossing paths, putting Albanese ahead for the first time since the onset of the pandemic. If that’s still not enough fresh content for you, note my newly published South Australian election guide and the introductory blog post and thread below, if you have any thoughts you would like to share concerning a campaign now officially in its first week.

UPDATE (Resolve Strategic): Now we have the monthly Resolve Strategic poll for the Age/Herald, which records the Coalition down one to 33%, Labor steady at 35%, the Greens down one to 10% and One Nation steady on 3%, independents down one to 10% and “others” up three to 9%.

Resolve Strategic doesn’t publish two-party numbers, but this comes out at a Labor lead of about 53-47 based on previous election preferences. The state breakdowns imply about 52-48 to Labor in New South Wales, 53.5-46.5 in Victoria and 50-50 in Queensland, for respective swings to Labor of about 4%, 0.5% and 8.5%. Contra Essential Research, One Nation is down four points in Queensland to 9%.

Scott Morrison’s personal ratings have significantly deteriorated, his approval down three to 38% and disapproval up six to 56%, while Anthony Albanese is respectively up two to 36% and up one to 42%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister has nonetheless widened slightly, from 38-31 to 39-30. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Sunday from a sample of 1604.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,572 comments on “Essential Research and Roy Morgan polls (and Resolve Strategic too)”

Comments Page 48 of 52
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  1. Red Clyde says:
    Friday, February 25, 2022 at 5:00 pm

    Zoomster,
    I too would appreciate it if you would also pass on my best wishes for a speedy recovery to Lizzie/Zoe and her family, she’s much loved on this blog
    ———————————————-
    Sadly, lizzie died this morning.

  2. Sceptic @ #2277 Friday, February 25th, 2022 – 3:27 pm

    C@tmomma says:
    Friday, February 25, 2022 at 2:33 pm
    This is an interesting development:

    C@t.. nothing counts or matters in this clusterf**k, Putin has always had resurrection of the Russian Empire (not the Soviet Union or any form of Communism) as his goal, so far he is on course.

    The only thing that will or can stop him is for the Western Capitalist system to use that system to grind the Russian economy into the ground.. total sensation of all trade & blocking the Russians out of Swift & all western monetary exchange mechanisms is required..

    Unfortunately there is likely a deal between Putin & China for China to fill the void.

    Psaki: Biden Claim That No One Expected Sanctions to Prevent Russian Invasion Was ‘Not Exactly What He Meant’

    https://www.nationalreview.com/news/psaki-biden-claim-that-no-one-expected-sanctions-to-prevent-russian-invasion-was-not-exactly-what-he-meant/#slide-1

    OH yes it WAS.. he meant every word of it… even if it blurted out.

    Next presidential elections have now taken on massive importance… especially as it looks like NY court case against Trump is going off the rails with resignation of 2 key prosecutors.

    Sceptic,
    The investigators in the Manhattan DA’s office resigned because they wanted to try the case against Trump but the new DA reviewed the evidence against Trump and decided it wasn’t enough to convict Trump due to his lifelong habit of not committing anything to a computer, instead putting it on paper and then disposing of the evidence.

    Btw, there are more serious court cases to come for the Trumps. With evidence.

    And yes, if you want to hold something that Joe Biden said against him as some sort of disqualifying incident and reason to support the Authoritarian-supporting Trump Republicans who have decided to no longer support democracy or free and fair elections, then that’s your choice. It will never be mine.

  4. To all those wishing Lizzie a speedy ,that haven’t caught up with news …
    Lizzie unfortunately passed away this morning at 9:50 am …

    Which is a very sad day for all of thE PB family here.

  5. Nolan Peterson
    @nolanwpeterson
    ·
    1h
    First light now showing in Kyiv. Long night of missile strikes, civilians seeking safety in bomb shelters. Reports of Russian tanks advancing on the city as Ukrainian forces fiercely resist. A European capital under siege in 2022. Not sure what else to say. 🙁

  6. poroti @ #2338 Friday, February 25th, 2022 – 4:44 pm

    Boerwar at 3:57 pm
    More wars. NSW and Victoria sent ships and troops to fight in the NZ Land Wars aka Maori Wars. No doubt ‘tory’ governments there. Victorians for whatever reason were the keenest to volunteer.(1860-4)

    Victoria had a mix of conservative and liberal premiers throughout that period. Not parties as such, they weren’t really a thing in Australia until the 1890s.

  8. Don’t know how tall Lizzie was, but it’s clear that so many of us looked up to her. Another infrequent poster here, who nonetheless feels they “knew” someone they had never met – my heartfelt condolences to her son and family along with my admiration for a perceptive, sensible, fair-minded, utterly reasonable, decent and beloved Bludger.

    KayJay and now Lizzie.

    Vale.

  9. I know I’ve said this before. And I’ll keep on saying it

    Labor’s most potent weapon is health care. It should be front and center every day now and in the coming election campaign.

    Mediscare worked a treat because Australia’s so-called “universal health care” system is a sick joke when compared to other comparable nations like Canada, the U.K. and many European countries.

    Labor has to keep reminding everyone, who it was who introduced Medicare, who privatized it, who resuscitated it, and who will keep working to emasculate it.

    This two-tier public-private American-style system is the most byzantine process that could have been devised.

    In many cases, it requires YOU to deal financially with GP’s, specialists, radiologists, laboratories, anaesthetists, hospitals, health funds, Medicare, the MBS, the PBS, most of whom are unable to tell you clearly what your treatment will cost. Or you have to beg for bulk billing.

    Many physicians provide prompt service to those who are prepared to pay private health insurance premiums or gaps rather than operate in the public system with its waiting lists. This creates two classes of patients and makes a mockery of the Hippocratic oath.

    Specialists laugh all the way to the bank because they operate outside of the system, charge what they like and most refuse to have anything to do with bulk billing.

    Canadians, for example, have NEVER seen a medical or hospital bill for more than 50 years since its universal, single payer Medicare system was established. Except for “extras” there is no primary health or hospital insurance industry. And the country hasn’t gone broke in the process, neither have the medicos who are still the most highly paid Canadians.

    If he were really smart, Albo should announce that one of the first acts of a Labor government would be to send a Medicare task force to Canada and other countries to see how a similar system could be implemented in Australia.

    He would promise that ALL medical, diagnostic and hospital costs would be brought into Medicare, not just Bill Shorten’s cancer treatment proposal that apparently went over like a lead balloon in the last election.

    Specialists would also be included. This would require a constitutional amendment to remove the “civil conscription” clause that was forced on the Chifley government by opposition from Liberal leader Menzies and the British Medical Association in the 1940’s who wanted to prevent an Australian version of the National Health Scheme.

    In order to get the Commonwealth into “maternity allowances, widows’ pensions, child endowment, unemployment, pharmaceutical, sickness and hospital benefits…. benefits to students and family allowances,” Chifley had to give in and insert “medical and dental services (but not so as to authorize any form of civil conscription)”

    Unfortunately that clause effectively limits the powers of the Commonwealth to regulate private medical practice and establish a truly universal, single-payer system.

    You can eliminate gaps, co-payments and out-of-pockets by stipulating that physicians would not be able to bill more than the Medical Benefits Schedule. If they do, their patients would not be able to claim the Medicare rebate. They didn’t like that when it was introduced in Canada, but they have gone along with it now for more than half a century.

    It’s unlikely that such a referendum, reforming the current dog’s breakfast Medicare, would fail. What’s not to like?

    But don’t get me started.

    Maybe the medicos on PB can tell us if I’ve got this wrong and why this is not a good idea.

  10. ‘BK says:
    Friday, February 25, 2022 at 5:13 pm

    UAP dumps Jefferson Earl from Victoria for declaring he is a Putin supporter.
    ______
    So the ragtag mob DOES have standards!’
    ===================================
    ‘Don’t get caught!’

  11. beguiledagain @ #1246 Friday, February 25th, 2022 – 5:15 pm

    I know I’ve said this before. And I’ll keep on saying it

    Labor’s most potent weapon is health care. It should be front and center every day now and in the coming election campaign.

    Mediscare worked a treat because Australia’s so-called “universal health care” system is a sick joke when compared to other comparable nations like Canada, the U.K. and many European countries.

    Labor has to keep reminding everyone, who it was who introduced Medicare, who privatized it, who resuscitated it, and who will keep working to emasculate it.

    This two-tier public-private American-style system is the most byzantine process that could have been devised.

    In many cases, it requires YOU to deal financially with GP’s, specialists, radiologists, laboratories, anaesthetists, hospitals, health funds, Medicare, the MBS, the PBS, most of whom are unable to tell you clearly what your treatment will cost. Or you have to beg for bulk billing.

    Many physicians provide prompt service to those who are prepared to pay private health insurance premiums or gaps rather than operate in the public system with its waiting lists. This creates two classes of patients and makes a mockery of the Hippocratic oath.

    Specialists laugh all the way to the bank because they operate outside of the system, charge what they like and most refuse to have anything to do with bulk billing.

    Canadians, for example, have NEVER seen a medical or hospital bill for more than 50 years since its universal, single payer Medicare system was established. Except for “extras” there is no primary health or hospital insurance industry. And the country hasn’t gone broke in the process, neither have the medicos who are still the most highly paid Canadians.

    If he were really smart, Albo should announce that one of the first acts of a Labor government would be to send a Medicare task force to Canada and other countries to see how a similar system could be implemented in Australia.

    He would promise that ALL medical, diagnostic and hospital costs would be brought into Medicare, not just Bill Shorten’s cancer treatment proposal that apparently went over like a lead balloon in the last election.

    Specialists would also be included. This would require a constitutional amendment to remove the “civil conscription” clause that was forced on the Chifley government by opposition from Liberal leader Menzies and the British Medical Association in the 1940’s who wanted to prevent an Australian version of the National Health Scheme.

    In order to get the Commonwealth into “maternity allowances, widows’ pensions, child endowment, unemployment, pharmaceutical, sickness and hospital benefits…. benefits to students and family allowances,” Chifley had to give in and insert “medical and dental services (but not so as to authorize any form of civil conscription)”

    Unfortunately that clause effectively limits the powers of the Commonwealth to regulate private medical practice and establish a truly universal, single-payer system.

    You can eliminate gaps, co-payments and out-of-pockets by stipulating that physicians would not be able to bill more than the Medical Benefits Schedule. If they do, their patients would not be able to claim the Medicare rebate. They didn’t like that when it was introduced in Canada, but they have gone along with it now for more than half a century.

    It’s unlikely that such a referendum, reforming the current dog’s breakfast Medicare, would fail. What’s not to like?

    But don’t get me started.

    Maybe the medicos on PB can tell us if I’ve got this wrong and why this is not a good idea.

    ‘Labor has to keep reminding everyone, who it was who introduced Medicare, who privatized it, who resuscitated it, and who will keep working to emasculate it.’

    Why stop there…..who opposed its introduction, who had its abolition as a platform policy until 1996…the PBS, who introduced it, which party opposed its introduction….compulsory super…..etc its a long list
    Labor needs to constantly remind some and inform still others just what they have to thank successive Labor governments for…..I’ve said it over and over again…..

  14. CSMonitor is carrying some interesting reporting from its Moscow correspondent:

    https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2022/0224/War-has-begun-in-Ukraine.-What-s-Putin-s-plan-and-do-Russians-back-him

    Russian military objectives seem clear, but longer-term political goals are murkier. Analysts say Russia has learned a lot watching U.S. wars of regime change over the past two decades, including how to use swift and overwhelming force, in the form of missiles and air power, to overcome the enemy’s capacity to resist with minimal direct contact between opposing armies.

    “We’ve already demonstrated our capabilities,” says Viktor Baranets, a former defense ministry spokesman who writes a column for the Moscow daily Komsomolskaya Pravda. “We are not attacking civilian objects, only military ones. We are pulling out the wolf’s teeth. It only depends on how long it takes the Ukrainian army to surrender.”

    As for the political endgame, Mr. Evseev says he expects “the Ukrainian leadership to be overthrown by the Ukrainians themselves,” which seems to be code for installation of a puppet regime. Others argue that Moscow doesn’t care who leads Ukraine, as long as the country renounces its goals to integrate with the West, particularly NATO, and accepts its place within a Russian sphere of influence.

    Andrey Suzdaltsev, a political scientist at Moscow’s Higher School of Economics, says the precedent to consider is Moscow’s 2008 war with Georgia.

    In that case, Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili was lured into attacking the Russian-protected separatist statelet of South Ossetia, and the Georgian army was subsequently defeated when Russia’s 58th Army smashed its way into the country. Russian troops penetrated into Georgia proper, did considerable damage, but declined to march on Tbilisi and withdrew, leaving Mr. Saakashvili still in power.

  15. #UkraineUnderAttack

    Twitter tag that shows an attempt at mapping Russian controlled areas of Ukraine as of last night.

    There is actually some quite disturbing video and images here. 🙁

  17. Rewi, it appears both a Ukrainian plane and a Russian plane (or missile) were shot down over Kyiv.

    Ukrainian forces downed an enemy aircraft over Kyiv in the early hours of Friday, which then crashed into a residential building and set it on fire, said Anton Herashchenko, an adviser to the interior minister.

    It was unclear whether the aircraft was manned or whether it could be a missile. Kyiv municipal authorities said at least eight people were injured when the object crashed into an apartment block.

    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-russia-what-you-need-know-right-now-2022-02-24/

  18. Replying to Socrates @ 3:56pm (replying to my earlier long submarines post).

    1. I agree that we are not far apart.

    2. We need SSKs as well as SSNs for simple logistical reasons: our SSK capability can hold the northern approaches thereby alloying our fledgling SSN capability to initially focus on blue water operations in the deep pacific and Indian oceans. It is worth noticing that none of the following nations – US, UK or France decommissioned their last SSK for about 30 years after they first commissioned a nuclear sub. It is unrealistic nto think that we coul manage this transition any quicker (and frankly we are probably looking at longer than that IF we are to ensure there is no capability gap).

    3. The Attack class – as opposed to anything else – is the obvious choice to ensure our SSK capability until the 2060s because it is effectively ready to go for us to build (probably in two year intervals from 2025 because Morrison and Dutton have fucked up last year). This will make for an easy transition on a ‘one for one’ boat basis when we have to retire the Collins class between about 2038-40. So that is a tick. While the Type 212CD looks awesome, we would be effectively starting agin if we went down that path. That can only mean more delay. Even a ‘son of Collins’ class would take another 5 years to go through the design and development phases before we could start cutting steel. Only the Attack class can be put into production quickly enough.

    3. Responding to this point:

    “ My concerns re Darwin were based on past Defence documents I read. They suggested the approach water was too shallow for too far and so a sub would be too easily tracked. If that is false then of course Darwin makes sense. Perhaps Labor should get a second opinion on that from external experts? (Or the sub sailors in the RAN and not the DSTO establishment?). I doubt Darwin can maintain SSNs or SSKs, but if it works for sustainment, great.”

    The shallows of the Arafura is more a problem for the ‘away team’ than the ‘home team’ if ever we got into a submarine tracking duel. If the ChiComms – or anyone else for that matter wanted to use surface assets to track our SSKs in the Arafura, then they would have to penetrate all the strategic pinch points BEFORE then. Good luck. They’d need it, given the proximity of Tindal Airbase outside Katherine.

    However, if that became a possibility, then our subs could always beetle back to home base at HMAS sterling before the foreign armada got into position. That’s the advantage of FOBs – there is always a home base to the rear to fall back on.

  20. So what is everyone preferred news service for keeping up with Ukraine? I am currently using France 24, but have tried DW for a bit and found the American services a bit too local at times.

  22. And now for something different.

    My sister lives in the Sunshine Coast hinterland, they just emptied out their rain gauge 1800 mm since 4.00pm yesterday.

  24. Thanks JimmyD.

    I’ve only seen reports of one plane being shot down over Kiev, but I have seen different reports at to whose it was. CNN’s report is that Ukraine is reporting its own plane being destroyed, which seems pretty conclusive.

    That Reuters report you’ve linked to says, of the reports of shooting a Russian aircraft, “It was unclear whether the aircraft was manned or whether it could be a missile.” Other reports seem to suggest that Ukraine has intercepted missiles over Kiev, which seems consistent.

  26. bakunin
    The short answer to the possibilities and probabilities raised in that post is that we don’t know what Plan A is and we don’t know what Plan B might yet turn out to be.
    Knocking out the Ukraine regular army might yet turn out to be the easy part.

  27. C@t from yesterday:
    “Upon seeing the interviews with many Ukrainians now, I am convinced that the West is on the side of the angels and anyone who sides with Putin, or bleeding Julian Assange against the West, fcs! seeks to attack America, Biden, NATO or any country who supports action against Putin, is on the side of the evil ones.”

    This is the kind of thinking which got us into the current mess, and completely ignores the long list crimes and mistakes of our own side, which Australia took part in far too often.

    @Andrew_Earlwood

    I sure hope you’re right re: the ALP.

  30. Ukraine envoy to India quotes Mahabharat, seeks PM Modi’s intervention after Russia attacks military facilities

    https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/trends/current-affairs-trends/ukraine-quotes-mahabharat-seeks-indias-intervention-after-russia-attacks-military-facilities-8159071.html/amp?gaa_at=g&gaa_n=AYc4ystCwd01yeIVtFpmZsOpPolzVNcK70EcY7KDUe5e1rhSDZJLM7MgnYysOhP2Mww%3D&utm_source=newsshowcase&utm_medium=discover&utm_campaign=nonpanel&gaa_ts=6218855a&gaa_sig=NOxGw200SyI9bhWCSZieJt6PsBIHoXLXBiwQKEpTwdbFx3NU8ozFL3gmpZZXnfNSsS9wXvKyrnpGtgZ14of0Eg%3D%3D
    ”

    From the article:
    I don’t know how many world leaders Putin would pay heed to, but due to the rapport Modi ji shares, I am hopeful that the Russian President would at least consider his words. We are expecting for much more favourable attitude from the Indian government,” Polikha said.

    Ukraine has reportedly witnessed its first civilian casualties even at the outskirts of the capital. There has been fighting in some areas and according to the information shared by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence, five Russian fighter planes, two helicopters, two tanks, and several trucks have been destroyed.”

  31. I feel immense sadness with the news of Lizzie’s death.

    Perhaps WB could consider setting up a separate post in which we can all record our best thoughts about Lizzie and express our condolences to her family. Just a thought.

  33. B.S.F

    I agree with you about the US coverage, CNN seems to have the most on the ground, MSNBC less so – but not that connected; remarkably, the little bit of FoxNews I watched wasn’t bad for factual reporting – though I avoided the ‘celebrity commentators’. All on

    https://www.livenewsnow.com – look under the American tab

    Also Al Jazeera has a free stream on YouTube – seems pretty even handed

    https://www.aljazeera.com/live/

    Will try France24

  34. Vale, Lizzie/Zoe Wilson.

    We are losing our progressives, our moderates, our Left Wing women (and men) who have lived through the hard times and good, and through the wins with each hard-earned change towards a fairer kinder society. They lived through the disappointment and fury of defeat, or the steady undermining and dismantling of social and humanitarian progress We are losing these women and many of their stories. I hope we never allow ourselves to lose their legacy of a better world, nor give it up lightly.

    I am very saddened to lose from my life a person for whom I never knew her real name, what she looked like nor what she or sounded like. We connected by words alone and I will miss that connection. I will miss Zoe Wilson’s thoughts, ideas, and connection to us on the site.

    Go gently on whatever journey awaits you and us all, Zoe, and thank you for helping make this challenging world a better place.

    My condolences to Zoe’s son, and her family and friends.

    Puffy, the Magic Dragon/Sandra.

  35. Boerwar
    It overflowed into the outer container and then they measured it. Don’t worry I questioned it too but that her claim. Anyway they are stuck at home for a while, she has spoken to locals that have lived in the area for 60 years who’ve said that they haven’t seen anything like it. The images out of the Lockyer Valley are pretty scary.

  37. Outsider,
    I second that suggestion. Perhaps it would be good to have a permanent page where we can leave our thoughts referring to Bludgers who have died. Of course that sets up another thread for William to look after, so it may not be suitable. However, it is a blog where people stick around for years and years. To just drift out of memory over time seems so sad.

    I sometimes think of a Bludger whose name escapes me, but ‘Cows With Guns’ was her theme song. Another was Frank, also Schnappi.

  39. Puff, I always think of Ctar1 – who had been a senior officer in Attorney Generals.

    Frank Calabrese is still going strong on Twitter

  40. Puff, the Magic Dragon @ #2384 Friday, February 25th, 2022 – 6:10 pm

    Vale, Lizzie/Zoe Wilson.

    We are losing our progressives, our moderates, our Left Wing women (and men) who have lived through the hard times and good, and through the wins with each hard-earned change towards a fairer kinder society. They lived through the disappointment and fury of defeat, or the steady undermining and dismantling of social and humanitarian progress We are losing these women and many of their stories. I hope we never allow ourselves to lose their legacy of a better world, nor give it up lightly.

    I am very saddened to lose from my life a person for whom I never knew her real name, what she looked like nor what she or sounded like. We connected by words alone and I will miss that connection. I will miss Zoe Wilson’s thoughts, ideas, and connection to us on the site.

    Go gently on whatever journey awaits you and us all, Zoe, and thank you for helping make this challenging world a better place.

    My condolences to Zoe’s son, and her family and friends.

    Puffy, the Magic Dragon/Sandra.

    Plus many Thanks Puffy
    From Laughtong/ Gillian

  41. bw,

    The article is not suggesting these are “the plan”.
    It is reporting the views of Russian analysts on how *they* think it will play out.

  43. A bit more on the NSW Liberal Circus -reminds me of the good old Wran days when they changed leaders more often than when they changed underpants…

    At Thursday’s hearing, the court heard the NSW Liberal Party had an AGM booking on hold at the International Convention Centre, but the ICC cancelled it as the Liberals would not confirm the booking due to the uncertainty of when state byelections would be held.

    During the hearing, a member of the Liberal Party state executive, country representative Mark Croxford, was seen shirtless on the Supreme Court live stream, wrongly believing his camera was turned off. It is understood the Kiama-based official was preparing for a surf.

    Mr Camenzuli was represented by Scott Robertson, the barrister who acted as counsel assisting the Independent Commission Against Corruption in its inquiry into former NSW premier Gladys Berejiklian, which is yet to make findings.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/supreme-court-derails-morrison-s-bid-to-take-over-nsw-liberal-party-20220225-p59zrx.html

  44. JimmyD at 6:30 pm
    Michael Weiss does warn with the usual caveats but check out “the plan” the Russians are supposed to have. Sounds Hollywood epic material.
    .
    Michael Weiss @michaeldweiss A Ukrainian intelligence source has passed along the following, which has already begun to trickle out in some form in the Ukrainian media.

    *All the usual caveats apply.* I cannot verify. But it is apparently based on human intelligence and concerns Russia’s play for Kyiv.
    https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1497095863864205312?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

    https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1497095863864205312?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

  46. ”
    Holdenhillbillysays:
    Friday, February 25, 2022 at 4:49 pm
    UAP dumps Jefferson Earl from Victoria for declaring he is a Putin supporter.

    Jefferson Earl @JeffersonEarl1
    ·
    Feb 20
    Russia is actually being incredible patient. With missiles on their border and now billions in military hardware being brought by the west into Ukrainian, are we really going to fall for this show? Russia and Putin are not our enemies
    ”

    Where as support for Putin in Republican party is sure bet for the selection of Presidential candidate. 🙂

  47. poroti – I did see that, and it aligns with what Secretary Blinken said he believed Russia’s end game to be (i.e. regime change). I wonder if/how the Ukrainians will respond.

  49. JimmyD at 6:42 pm
    It was the whole taking of the airport plan that seemed OMG! Not saying they won’t try that but it seems quite an ambitious plan. The scale of the airborne ‘invasion’ a bit ‘Hollywood epic ‘ .

  50. ”
    Boerwarsays:
    Friday, February 25, 2022 at 4:56 pm
    ‘Themunz says:
    Friday, February 25, 2022 at 4:50 pm

    Boerwarsays:
    Friday, February 25, 2022 at 3:10 pm

    “The Germans spend 1.4% of GDP on defence.
    The US spends more than double that.”

    In the US Defence is an export industry.’
    ———————————-
    The essential point is that Germany has been a free rider on US defence spending
    ”

    I heard American citizens say Substitute Germany with Australia in above BW sentence.

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