Essential Research and Roy Morgan polls (and Resolve Strategic too)

One pollster moves closer to the pack by recording movement to Labor, while another remains consistent in projecting a Labor landslide.

Two new polls that have come down the chute overnight:

• Essential Research’s voting intention numbers, which will now be reportedly every fortnight, have Labor up three to 38%, the Coalition down two to 35%, the Greens steady on 9%, One Nation up one to 5%, the United Australia Party up one to 3% and undecided down two to 6%. The pollster’s “2PP+” measure has Labor up two to 49%, the Coalition down one to 45% and undecided down one to 6%. The poll also features the monthly leadership ratings, which have Scott Morrison down two on approval to 44% and up three on disapproval to 49%, whereas Anthony Albanese is up three on approval to 42% and steady on 39% disapproval. Morrison leads 40-35 on preferred prime minister, in from 42-34 a month ago. These results, together with breakdowns by state, age cohort, gender and more besides, can be found on the pollster’s website. I note that One Nation’s increase to their equal highest level for the past term is driven by a six-point increase in Queensland to 10%, though I’d want to see that repeated before reading anything into it.

The report in The Guardian features results from the survey’s attitudinal questions. Several of these relate to the particularly pertinent question of Australia’s relationship with China, and like just about everything else from these polls, the results are not encouraging for the government: 37% said they had more trust in Labor to manage the relationship compared with 28% for the Coalition and 34% for unsure. Sixty-one per cent regard the relationship as “a complex dynamic to be managed”, with only 26% preferring an alternative characterisation as “a threat to be confronted”.

The Essential poll was conducted online from Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1089. Further results from the poll, including the regular series on federal and state government COVID-19 management, will presumably be along with the full report later today.

• Also out is the latest fortnightly result from Roy Morgan, which seems to have introduced a longer delay between its field work and the release of the results for whatever reason. The latest numbers are even worse for the Coalition than the last: they are steady on 33% of the primary vote, with Labor up one to 38.5%, the Greens steady on 11.5%, One Nation up half to 4%, the United Australia Party down half to 1.5% and independents steady on 8%. The respondent-allocated two-party measure, which for this pollster at least is consistenly more favourable for Labor than the previous election preferences method would be, has Labor’s lead out from 56.5-43.6 to 57-43.

State two-party breakdowns are provided, showing Labor leading 59-41 in New South Wales (out from 54-46 for a swing of about 11.5%), 57.5-42.5 in Victoria (in from 59-41, a swing of about 4.5%), 51.5-48.5 in Queensland (unchanged, a swing of about 10%), 53.5-46.5 in Western Australia (in from 55.5-44.5, a swing of about 9%), 59.5-40.5 in South Australia (in from 64-36, a swing of about 9%) and 65-35 in Tasmania (out from 61.5-38.5, a swing of about 9%). The poll was conducted online and by phone from January 31 to February 13 from a sample of 2796.

I have updated the BludgerTrack poll (though I’m going to hold off updating the state-level trends for a bit for commercial reasons), which now shows Labor’s lead exceeding 56-44 and the two leaders’ net satisfaction ratings crossing paths, putting Albanese ahead for the first time since the onset of the pandemic. If that’s still not enough fresh content for you, note my newly published South Australian election guide and the introductory blog post and thread below, if you have any thoughts you would like to share concerning a campaign now officially in its first week.

UPDATE (Resolve Strategic): Now we have the monthly Resolve Strategic poll for the Age/Herald, which records the Coalition down one to 33%, Labor steady at 35%, the Greens down one to 10% and One Nation steady on 3%, independents down one to 10% and “others” up three to 9%.

Resolve Strategic doesn’t publish two-party numbers, but this comes out at a Labor lead of about 53-47 based on previous election preferences. The state breakdowns imply about 52-48 to Labor in New South Wales, 53.5-46.5 in Victoria and 50-50 in Queensland, for respective swings to Labor of about 4%, 0.5% and 8.5%. Contra Essential Research, One Nation is down four points in Queensland to 9%.

Scott Morrison’s personal ratings have significantly deteriorated, his approval down three to 38% and disapproval up six to 56%, while Anthony Albanese is respectively up two to 36% and up one to 42%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister has nonetheless widened slightly, from 38-31 to 39-30. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Sunday from a sample of 1604.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,572 comments on “Essential Research and Roy Morgan polls (and Resolve Strategic too)”

Comments Page 46 of 52
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  1. Morrison’s main target audience will be people such as myself – first or second gen Euro Reffos and DPs. There are an awful lot of us.
    The second group will be Clem’s faves: Groupers and the like.
    The third group will be the gunnies. They like tough talk.

  2. “WeWantPaul,
    Algiers, Norway and Qatar, going by that EU article I just linked to seem capable of filling the Russia gap, as well as Australia. America is also gearing up its export capabilities. I would add that setting off from NW WA it’s not so far away either.”

    From memory Gorgon on Barrow Is with all three trains producing ships a tanker of LNG pretty much everyday. Then you have North West Shelf, Wheatstone and Pluto before you factor in Icthys which comes from WA but goes to Darwin.

    One of the plagues states has a train or two as well!

  4. The Trump-loving/Lib-loyal will be very confused by the war in Ukraine. What should they feel? Vindicated in some perverse way? Or conflicted by Morrison’s call against Putin?

    The reactionaries won’t know which way to turn.

  5. Morrison is always late to react on things ,

    lib/nats probably had the best chance to retain government in late 2021

    their chances would not have been good in march/april federal election this year but would be better then in may this year

    Very slim chance to retain government

  6. It is reported that the Ukrainian army has recaptured an international airport near Kyiv that had been under Russian control.

    Global: MilitaryInfo
    @Global_Mil_Info
    · 4h
    Gostomel airfield was reportedly retaken by Ukraine’s National Guard & the Ukrianian 45th Spetsnaz Brigade. Surviving VDV units scattered.

  7. WeWantPaul at 2:50 pm
    There may not be too much LNG gas to “spare” in Australia. Many of the projects have been for specific customers. They take all of the production. For instance the Darwin facility sends all its production to Tokyo Electric and to Tokyo Gas. The main expansion would likely be with the fracker feckers 🙁
    The EU has to spend $billions to build facilities to take the LNG deliveries. So it will be a while. In the meanwhile ? When they build it it will be win for the US . They get to sell their not so cheap gas to the EU . The EU get the honor of paying for it.

  10. alfred venison @ #2247 Friday, February 25th, 2022 – 2:55 pm

    JimmyD : ta, i saw it. they will swap dependence on russian gas for dependence on american lpg, which economists say will cost 15% more. this will be a hit to european economies and a gain to the americans. once again the allies bear the cost. -a.v.

    No they’re not!

    Where does the EU get its gas from and how much of it is LNG?

    Less than half of the EU’s gas needs are currently met by domestic production. The rest is imported, mainly from Norway (30%), Russia (39%) and Algeria (13%). In recent years LNG has accounted for around 10% of imports, with most of that coming from Qatar, Algeria and Nigeria.

    Which countries are the main world producers of LNG?

    Qatar is currently by far the world’s largest supplier of LNG, at around 100 bcm. Other large (>20 bcm) suppliers include Nigeria, Malaysia, Indonesia and Australia. However, global liquefaction is set to increase dramatically as new plants in the US and Australia come on stream over the next few years.

    In order to improve the access of all Member States to LNG and storage as an alternative source of gas, the EU needs to:

    * build the necessary infrastructure to complete the internal market, allowing all Member States to access international LNG markets, either directly or via other Member States. While in the North-West of Europe markets are competitive and well-connected, with access to several sources of gas – including a number of terminals with substantial capacity to import LNG – gas markets in the Baltic, central-eastern, south-eastern and south-western regions are less developed
    complete the internal gas market so that it sends the right price signals — to attract LNG to where it is needed and to facilitate necessary infrastructure investments;

    * use storage facilities more efficiently. The Commission will improve the operational rules on the cross-border use of storage. It is also important that Member States optimise the use of gas storage across borders by creating regional preventive action and emergency plans.

    * work closely with international partners, to promote free, liquid and transparent global LNG markets. This means engaging with current and future suppliers and with other major consuming countries to ensure that LNG can be traded freely on global markets, both under normal market conditions and in the event of external shocks.

    https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/sl/MEMO_16_310

    Why do you try so hard to mislead, av?

  11. The only movement reports I would give any credence to at all are satellite shots of russian equipment such as tanks. Even those I would take with a huge grain of salt.
    These were, incidentally, the best information we plebs got in the run up the invasion.
    Other than that the guys who nipped across the Belarus border and cornered the Chernobyl staff appear to represent a real advance.

  12. Greensborough Growler says Friday, February 25, 2022 at 2:52 pm

    War is not just pyrotechnics and a jape.

    Peter Yang
    @petergyang
    Video of Ukrainian father saying goodbye to his kids while he stays behind to fight.

    Fuck war.

    https://twitter.com/i/status/1496877608373424131

    There’s a claim that the video is of a Russian:

    This video was also posted to Telegram 4 days ago, noting him as a father staying in Gorlovka, fighting for Russia.
    (in the background is also an ad for ‘Premium Taxi 331’ a Gorlovka business)
    A reminder to check what you share, and that not all you see shared is as it appears.

    https://twitter.com/danbarker/status/1497014924467392518

    I have no idea which claim is true.

  13. “WeWantPaul at 2:50 pm
    There may not be too much LNG gas to “spare” in Australia. Many of the projects have been for specific customers. They take all of the production. For instance the Darwin facility sends all its production to Tokyo Electric and to Tokyo Gas. The main expansion would likely be with the fracker feckers
    The EU has to spend $billions to build facilities to take the LNG deliveries. So it will be a while. In the meanwhile ? When they build it it will be win for the US . They get to sell their not so cheap gas to the EU . The EU get the honor of paying for it.”

    You are right, I think the EU has quite a few regas facilities, but they can’t take over their capacity.

    In terms of committed long term buyers that is definitely the way the market used to work. For example Gorgon wouldn’t have got a positive FID without (I can’t remember exactly) 75 – 80% capacity presold over long terms.

    But the buyers and producers have been moving to create a spot market, and a lot of the upside in LNG revenue comes from these sales. The pricing mechanism for the long term sales is much less responsive (is or at least was largely linked to oil price).and lags by at least 3 months.

  14. The US has been the guarantor of Euro peace for 75 years.
    For much of those 75 years Germany has been the main economic and security beneficiary.
    The Germans spend 1.4% of GDP on defence.
    The US spends more than double that.
    I don’t have any difficulty with the free rider effect being cancelled out a bit.
    But I am 100% certain that av and his White Ants have figured all that out a long time ago.
    It is sure to have been in a Bloomberg article somewhere or other.

  16. Boerwar : are you talking marcy wheeler or something else. btw, wheeler moved her family from michigan to ireland a year or so ago after the militia’s plot to kidnap & assassinate the governor was exposed and the ringleaders rounded up. she felt it was no longer safe in the usa for bloggers like her. the comments are always worth a read too, very intelligent people with a wide range of experience in government & law & military and they give trolls short shrift. very high caliber commentary. i think she runs the best blog on matters trump. -a.v.

  17. Really sad to hear about Lizzie. A Bludger who could express definitive political views without compromising values of civility and respect for others. One of our best. Zoomster, thanks for keeping us updated.

  19. poroti @ #2255 Friday, February 25th, 2022 – 3:02 pm

    WeWantPaul at 2:50 pm
    There may not be too much LNG gas to “spare” in Australia. Many of the projects have been for specific customers. They take all of the production. For instance the Darwin facility sends all its production to Tokyo Electric and to Tokyo Gas. The main expansion would likely be with the fracker feckers 🙁
    The EU has to spend $billions to build facilities to take the LNG deliveries. So it will be a while. In the meanwhile ? When they build it it will be win for the US . They get to sell their not so cheap gas to the EU . The EU get the honor of paying for it.

    It sucks needing to find a way around Russia’s attempt to exert an iron grip on Europe, huh?

    Nevertheless, here is some relevant info:

    Europe’s Existing Regasification Capacity
    There are currently 29 large-scale LNG import terminals in Europe.23 Aug 2021

    Also, it appears that America will be easily supplanted by Qatar:

    US LNG in Europe
    The US was Europe’s top supplier of LNG in Q1 2021, beating Qatar and Russia into second and third place, respectively. US global exports have surged by 42% in H1 2021 in comparison to 2020, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), with Europe accounting for 37% of exports in the period. Continued outages amongst key LNG producers mean that the US is likely to retain its market share in Europe in the short-term. This will be driven by sufficiently high TTF spot prices in the period to give US exporters an acceptable margin.

    The medium and long-term picture for US exports into Europe is less clear. A key challenge for US LNG exporters in the coming years will be the increased supply from Qatar to Europe following its FID on the North Field Expansion project. The USD 28 billion project will increase Qatar Petroleum’s (QP) production capacity from 77 MTPA to 110 MTPA, with an increase to its LNG exporting capacity of approximately 43%. The project poses a particular threat to US exporters who export spot cargoes to Europe and Asia due to the level of uncontracted volumes from the project (as well as the potential to drive down prices generally due to increased supply). QP is currently running a tender process for IOCs to take equity in the project, with its eventual partners lifting some “equity volumes”, and is running a similar process with key Asian buyers to secure long-term off-takers. However, on completion of the project QP is expected to have approximately 70% of its capacity uncontracted. Whilst many of the cargoes will be sold into the Asian spot market, a large number will be sold into Europe, posing a challenge to US exporters.

    https://www.natlawreview.com/article/lng-europe-2021-current-trends-european-lng-landscape-and-country-focus#:~:text=Europe's%20Existing%20Regasification%20Capacity&text=There%20are%20currently%2029%20large%2Dscale%20LNG%20import%20terminals%20in%20Europe.

  21. alfred venison – European efforts to switch gas supplies to nations not led by revanchist dictators making open threats of nuclear strikes is strategically preferable.

  23. Looks like Putin is becoming increasingly isolated, internationally and domestically, and getting desperate.

    Hard to see how he wins from here, even if he is in nominal control of Ukraine.

    I think he has made a terrible and unforced blunder, that could well see him dead within weeks.

    Hopefully before he lets nukes loose on the world.

  24. I am firmly of the belief that someone will move on Putin before he gets to push the button. The alternative is unthinkable.

  25. bc says:
    Friday, February 25, 2022 at 3:07 pm
    Greensborough Growler says Friday, February 25, 2022 at 2:52 pm

    War is not just pyrotechnics and a jape.

    Peter Yang
    @petergyang
    Video of Ukrainian father saying goodbye to his kids while he stays behind to fight.

    Fuck war.

    https://twitter.com/i/status/1496877608373424131
    There’s a claim that the video is of a Russian:

    This video was also posted to Telegram 4 days ago, noting him as a father staying in Gorlovka, fighting for Russia.
    (in the background is also an ad for ‘Premium Taxi 331’ a Gorlovka business)
    A reminder to check what you share, and that not all you see shared is as it appears.
    https://twitter.com/danbarker/status/1497014924467392518

    I have no idea which claim is true.
    __________________________________

    And it doesn’t really matter.Children may never see their father again because of the mad megalomania of a fascist.

  27. Apart from the White Ant brigade and their little helpers, the Greens, it must be something of a relief in the US that they are not the bad guys.

  29. C@tmomma says:
    Friday, February 25, 2022 at 2:33 pm
    This is an interesting development:

    C@t.. nothing counts or matters in this clusterf**k, Putin has always had resurrection of the Russian Empire (not the Soviet Union or any form of Communism) as his goal, so far he is on course.

    The only thing that will or can stop him is for the Western Capitalist system to use that system to grind the Russian economy into the ground.. total sensation of all trade & blocking the Russians out of Swift & all western monetary exchange mechanisms is required..

    Unfortunately there is likely a deal between Putin & China for China to fill the void.

    Psaki: Biden Claim That No One Expected Sanctions to Prevent Russian Invasion Was ‘Not Exactly What He Meant’

    https://www.nationalreview.com/news/psaki-biden-claim-that-no-one-expected-sanctions-to-prevent-russian-invasion-was-not-exactly-what-he-meant/#slide-1

    OH yes it WAS.. he meant every word of it… even if it blurted out.

    Next presidential elections have now taken on massive importance… especially as it looks like NY court case against Trump is going off the rails with resignation of 2 key prosecutors.

  31. Boerwar at 3:18 pm

    I’m all for world events that increase the price of gas.

    Well there ya go.Maybe Vlad did listen to John Kerry’s appeal re this conflict and Climate Change.
    John Kerry urges Putin to not let Ukraine invasion distract from combating climate change

  32. Can ScoMo apply his trademark incompetence to the Ukraine invasion eg

    – Wednesday, criticise China for siding with Russia
    – Thursday, reach out to China saying they should work together with Australia
    – Friday, criticise China for siding with Russia
    – Saturday, who the fuck knows?

    Maybe The Liar is playing 3-dimensional chess with the ChiComs?

  33. BW,

    We used to a have poster with the moniker “The Truth Matters”. But, WB banned him for telling too many porkies, I believe.

  36. I missed the news about Lizzie but from other posts it must have been bad news 🙁
    Vale Lizzie, a kind soul and dear friend who I will miss from these pages 🙁

  38. Vale Lizzie/Zoe.

    Although an atheist, there is part of me that imagines KayJay welcoming her to Stovokor and pouring her a cup of afternoon tea or Pims right about now.

  41. C@t

    Yep. Whether or not America makes a bloody profit from it!

    Yes, an irrelevant point when the probability of conflict between NATO and Russia is above zero.

  42. Regarding the day to day events and claims and counter claims from Ukraine and Russia, nothing surer than the only truism of war, that being ‘Truth is the first casualty of war’.

    More so in this digital age, where an Aleppo, Syria explosion from 2019 can appear on social media as one happening today in Kharkiv, Ukraine. Share and retweet enough, and even the MSM will pick it up.

  43. Come on Lizzie(Zoe) hang in there. Best wishes from one of the original bludgers. We have already lost a few bludgers over the years.
    Good luck and I hope you get better soon.

  44. Boerwar

    “Apart from the White Ant brigade and their little helpers, the Greens, it must be something of a relief in the US that they are not the bad guys.”

    What is wrong with you? You and Bludger are seriously deluded.
    EVERY opportunity you take to attack the Greens… It’s vile and idiotic.
    And you really think this is a sensible time to attack?
    For fucks sake, grow up

  45. LNG couldn’t come close to competing with natural gas in a sensible market, up to 30% of the feed natural gas gets burned to make the LNG, before you add in the massive capital costs.

  46. Samantha Maiden
    @samanthamaiden
    · 1h
    Remember those AWU raids and @SenatorCash whiteboard? Four years later and – millions $ ? – the investigation into the AWU is getting dropped.

  47. Ouch Australia’s richest man Twiggy Forrest takes aim at fed Energy Min Angus Taylor over his defence of fossil fuels. “What’s the difference between Angus Taylor and God? And I answer it: God doesn’t think he’s Angus Taylor”.

  49. It looks like some journo(s)/someone at the SMH wants Friendly Jordies to know about Bevan Shields’ ‘strike’ order. Jordies has more subscribers than the SMH. Wonder why? The rag is leaking like the Liberal Party.

    “friendlyjordies@friendlyjordies· 58m
    Here is Sydney Morning Herald editor @BevanShields instructing his journalists to deliberately mislead their readers about the train shutdown.
    If the @smh has even a modicum of integrity left, they will fire Bevan, as he has fired others for much less.”

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