No further national voting intention polls this week after the weekend Newspoll. Presumably this means the monthly Resolve Strategic will be along next week in the Age/Herald. Roy Morgan has for some time come along fortnightly and did not report last week, but the manner of its reporting is notoriously hard to predict. Together with the ongoing New South Wales by-elections count, which is covered in the post below this one, that just leaves the following:
• Roy Morgan did have an SMS poll of 1080 respondents conducted on Monday and Tuesday which found Josh Frydenberg favoured to lead the Coalition by 38.5%, ahead of Scott Morrison on 31% and Peter Dutton on 12.5%. The question specifically asked, “if you were a Liberal or National Party voter and helping to choose the Coalition Leader for the next Federal Election, who would you prefer”.
• The West Australian had a poll by Painted Dog Research on Wednesday which found Mark McGowan’s approval rating in Western Australia had fallen from 77% to 64% since December, having peaked at 91% in September 2020, with disapproval up from 14% to 25%. The poll was conducted Friday to Tuesday from a sample of 654.
• Recommended viewing and listening: Antony Green explains the dark art of election night results projection, while pollsters Peter Lewis and John Utting discuss the even darker art of opinion polling on 2SER’s Fourth Estate program.
Josh Frydenberg ads appear on WeChat despite Liberal MPs calling for boycott:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/feb/21/josh-frydenberg-ads-appear-on-wechat-despite-liberal-mps-calling-for-boycott
Seems to be a theme here 🙂
The safety issue is Dom’s Leadership.
A 20% swing against the Government in heartland Willoughby was always going to generate internal dissension.
This is a naked grab for power by the Transport Minister. Another one that is not going to die wondering.
Does Dom make it to the Election?
Snappy Tom
A poll from 2018
Less than half of Scots support the monarchy, according to new poll
SCOTS are far less royalist than the rest of Britain, according to a new poll.
Delta Poll found that just 41 per cent of people in Scotland backed the monarchy, compared with the 55 per cent who support it in England.
The poll also found that 28 per cent, almost one in three people in Scotland, were actively opposed to the institution, while 27 per cent were ambivalent.
Only 14 per cent of people in England were found to oppose the monarchy.
The poll was taken on behalf of the centre-right think tank Policy Exchange.
https://www.thenational.scot/news/16238926.less-half-scots-support-monarchy-according-new-poll/
”
Soharsays:
Monday, February 21, 2022 at 2:11 pm
“They are striking now just before an election”
Just who is striking, comrade Ven?
”
Rail workers as per Morrison. 🙂
See, even I fall for Morrison, ABC and MSM propaganda. 🙂
Seems to be a while since ScoMo made a stupid gaffe or had a leak against him. Is this a record?
My Scottish grandfather would have been a ‘no to monarchy’ responder.
He did not appreciate being drafted and sent to France in not just one, but two world wars!
A very bad sign for the Coalition “union scare” From the rw sludge end of the markrt, Daily Mail.
Even The Daily Tellsmecrap seemed rather subdued over the issue.
Tom at 6.32pm
In recent days he’s nearly blinded himself with a welder and helpfully inserted himself into NSW railway industrial relations.
Sufficient?
Thanks to a shit fuckerry governments I have to take 4 hours worth of buses (2 hours each way)
They fuck everything up
The better half is telling me that if the Queen is indisposed, Andrew is still a Counsellor of State:
https://www.royal.uk/counsellors-state
Rewi @ #1638 Monday, February 21st, 2022 – 4:03 pm
Sorry I didn’t reply sooner, Rewi.
I guess what I’m getting at is I believe if the missiles in Poland, a NATO country, are attacked by Putin’s forces, then America would be obliged to come to the aid of its NATO partner. If that NATO partner was engaged in defending the Ukraine, then would America become more involved? I don’t know the answer to that. However, what I do know is that Putin has been making threatening noises wrt using tactical nuclear weapons and so I find it hard to believe that if he did carry through with that threat that America wouldn’t respond to that particular provocation. Not being a student of international treaties I wonder if there is one that covers attack with nuclear weapons and what that entails as a response, plus I would imagine that America is definitely a signatory to it if it exists.
“The better half is telling me that if the Queen is indisposed, Andrew is still a Counsellor of State”
With special responsibilities for youth!
I think Scotty and Omicron Don trying to pin point and blame Labor.
https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/agl-takeover-faces-government-roadblock-20220221-p59y85
The dolt Bowen isn’t being completely honest.
Chalmers as Treasurer would have veto powers to block the takeover bid.
I have to say that, sitting up here in Snoozeville, reading about new and expensive toll roads in Sydney, train strikes, traffic, and everyone shouting at everyone else, there is a certain tranquility in walking along the rainforest boardwalk, going onto Cellito beach this morning, 2.5 kilometres long, with water as clear as a swimming pool, warm and calm, dolphins out the back behind the breakers, a couple of desultory seagulls dagging about, and only 8 other swimmers there to see the spectacle of my once magnificent, but alas, now ageing body.
Never made a better decision in my life than to move up here.
”
Rewisays:
Monday, February 21, 2022 at 4:03 pm
C@tmomma
1, obviously.
But of your remaining options:
“2. Russia invades Ukraine and America does nothing
3. America comes to the aid of Ukraine and NATO if Russia invades Ukraine.”
What do ‘does nothing’ and ‘comes to the aid’ mean to you here?
At this stage, so far as I know, no state, or NATO (of which America is a member) has said that they would go to war over a Russian invasion of Ukraine. They have certainly said that there would be very heavy sanctions. The most that has been said regarding a military response is that one or more states may provide assistance to a Ukrainian resistance.
So I’m not sure anyone’s suggesting that America and its allies should do ‘nothing’ in response.
But if ‘coming to the aid’ means more than sanctions, to direct confrontation between US uniformed troops and Russia, with or without NATO allies, I’m not sure anyone’s suggesting that either (standing to be corrected where anyone’s got a link to the contrary).
”
Rewi and C@tmomma
2nd option is not going to happen.
I concur with Rewi 3rd option. If US is foolish enough to go to war with Russia when to come to the aid of Ukraine, then God help Europe.
IMO, Macron will proceed with Normandy group negotiations keeping US on sidelines.
As poroti pointed France, which has EU Presidency, will not trust US and UK after AUKUS deal.
Nice work BB.
And there’s no going back.
Rex Douglas @ #1716 Monday, February 21st, 2022 – 4:10 pm
Would he?
Cannon-Brookes is an Australian citizen, so it would come down to the amount of foreign capital involved.
BB,
How did your life go so wrong?
Don Key @ #1692 Monday, February 21st, 2022 – 6:02 pm
The Millennials in my son’s circle aren’t buying what Morrison and Perrottet are peddling. They’ve been circulating RTBU posts from social media amongst themselves all day.
Rex ‘The Dolt’ Douglas doesn’t know what he’s talking about as usual. Barney does.
poroti says:
Monday, February 21, 2022 at 6:34 pm
A very bad sign for the Coalition “union scare” From the rw sludge end of the markrt, Daily Mail.
Dominic Perrottet makes extraordinary claim train union is colluding with Labor to cause chaos ahead of the election with crippling Sydney train strike – when HE was the one who shut it all down
A little known fun fact is that the Daily Mail – Australian Edition – is the highest ranking news website, by a long way.
So the shit they print gets more eyeballs than any of Rupert’s, 9fax or ABC…
BB, hope to get up there later this year..
Macron will proceed with Normandy group negotiations keeping US on sidelines.
VP Kamala Harris is in Europe contributing to the diplomacy. As is Secretary Antony Blinken. If no invasion has occurred this week he will meet with Russia’s Foreign Minister Lavrov.
As poroti pointed France, which has EU Presidency, will not trust US and UK after AUKUS deal.
This is just a facile interpretation when it comes to such a serious matter.
”
Matt31says:
Monday, February 21, 2022 at 4:03 pm
VE
A united Ireland is still little more than a nationalist fantasy. Most polls on the matter continue to show a comfortable win for remaining in the UK were a border poll to take place, and that’s even before an actual campaign which would point out some of the practical realities of a united Ireland, including exiting the NHS for the Irish health system. Even in Ireland, while a yes vote would start favourite were there to be a border poll, it is not a certainty. There was some interesting poling on this not long ago, where naturally there was majority support for a united Ireland, however, when pressed on some of the practical economic realities, as well as possible compromises to win over Unionists in Northern Ireland, things were far less simple. All this before we even consider the likely violence that would be stirred up.
”
My point was that people in England will realise Brexit is a complete disaster only when Scotland insists on seperating from UK because of Brexit hardship because Scotland voted against Brexit. I didn’t say that North Ireland will join Ireland. North Ireland may prefer to remain a separate country as as compromise. Hence my quip breaks into 3 countries.
”
Ven @ #1599 Monday, February 21st, 2022 – 11:20 am
”
“How much longer do we have to pretend that Brexit might work?”, asks William Keegan.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/feb/20/how-much-longer-do-we-have-to-pretend-that-brexit-might-work
”
Till UK splinters into 3 countries?
“
sprocket_ at 7:19 pm
Wow ,did not know that. Not good news for SfM’s Labor-Union scare attempt. How sad.
The Americans and British didn’t really screw France on the subs deal. Australia was the one with the agreement.
And France doesn’t want Russia moving into Ukraine any more than the UK or USA.
C@t, responding to this observation:
As poroti pointed France, which has EU Presidency, will not trust US and UK after AUKUS deal.
“This is just a facile interpretation when it comes to such a serious matter.”
Except that it isn’t facile in the slightest.
Your trust in the Americans leaves you ‘Dutton adjacent” more often than not. This is an odd place for a comrade to be …
On the news tonight the US has said, according to their sources, the Russians have a list of Ukrainians to be killed or sent to the “camps”. It’s more and more like mid last century.
Scotland is not going to get independence if 52% want independence, the figure has got to be above 55% for there to be any real action. They won’t get away scot free either, they will be forced to take a chunk of the British national debt* and then they will be the asset split up too. Divorces are rarely clean and easy.
*part of the reason the Scots agreed to join the Union of 1707 was they couldn’t service their debt.
Scotland competes in a few sports separately, but not many, and not the Olympics.
Your trust in the Americans leaves you ‘Dutton adjacent” more often than not. This is an odd place for a comrade to be …
Facile seems to be the flavour of the day. 🙄
“Scotland competes in a few sports separately, but not many, and not the Olympics.”
Hmmm.
I think that Scotland competes in many sports separately – probably most sports outside core olympic sports (ie. athletics, swimming, cycling etc – except for the commonwealth games).
No worries C@tmomma!
I think the two ‘ifs’ in that paragraph are doing a lot of work 🙂
Yes, of course, the entire dynamic changes if Russia attacks a member of NATO. But that’s not in the three options you set out.
Also, re: the ‘facile’ reflections regarding the Aukus arrangement, we should remember that this deal is done in the context of UK withdrawal from the EU and an increasing discussion over the past five to ten years among Five Eyes states of what they refer to as ‘the Anglosphere’.
Tony Abbott’s a big fan of that nomenclature. It emerged at around the same time as people invented the so-called ‘Indo-Pacific’ region in an effort to draw together states that might be interested in containing (there’s that word again, a r) China.
So the relationship between the UK and US and continental Europe has been increasingly rocky lately. The potential for a significant realignment as a longer term consequence of what’s happening today, as subgeologic (?) mentioned earlier, is real.
B. S. Fairman
part of the reason the Scots agreed to join the Union of 1707 was they couldn’t service their debt.
————
It was the debts of the aristocrats/lairds who just happen to be the only ones who had a say on signing the treaty. It was not Scotland’s debt. When they signed they got lots of English gold to pay their debts and seats in the House of Lords. Bribery and corruption…
As Rabbie Burns said…
What force or guile could not subdue
Through many warlike ages
Is wrought now by a coward few
For hireling traitor’s wages
The English steel we could disdain
Secure in valour’s station
But English gold has been our bane –
Sic a parcel o rogues in a nation!
Barney in Tanjung Bungasays:
Monday, February 21, 2022 at 7:17 pm
Would he?
Cannon-Brookes is an Australian citizen, so it would come down to the amount of foreign capital involved.
—
The only basis for ministerial intervention (in any way) are on concerns of reducing competitiveness in a market. This wouldn’t do that, so Rex has no idea what he’s banging on about.
Granny Anny says:
Monday, February 21, 2022 at 4:35 pm
TPOF at 11:55 says that obsessian with the US is absurd following critisism of the Gulf of Tonkin and Iraq WMD intelligence lies and that all countries bullshit about intelligence.
Can you provide more examples like the Vietnam War where about 1 million combatents died plus more than half a million civilians following the Gulf of Tonkin lies, or the Iraq War justified by false WMD claims where deaths estimates range either side of the 1 million mark, and then add to that the resultant instability in the Middle East
____________________________________-
If this is your argument, then sadly it appears that you are happy for any war, crimes against humanity or outright genocide is okay as long as the USA was not involved in some way. Because only the USA has ever engaged in disinformation. (I will allow extension of your position to ‘friends’ of the USA like Israel or Saudi Arabia.)
Andrew_Earlwood @ #1736 Monday, February 21st, 2022 – 4:36 pm
The Olympics is based UN recognition, so the UK is forced to have a united team, when normally they would represent their home country. In the Commonwealth games competitors represent their home country.
All welcome, especially youse, Sprocket and Lady Sprocket.
I am hoping to have an election barbeque this year somewhat more cheerful than the last, in 2019, where we saw the women outside talking pilates, gardens and food while, inside, the blokes were looking for ashtrays to hurl at the screen and muttering dark mutters regarding the purchase of weapons and explosives.
Also, we’ve fixed the downstairs dunny after the fire. It now has hot and cold running water, and you don’t have to work the pump to flush. Progress, Snoozeville style!
Can’t vouch for the Huntsmen and Huntsladies, though. They’re still down there, doing what spiders do. How do I know? I can hear them talking.
FMD. Marshall’s election ads, the fed governments not-election ads and Palmers everywhere ads. The place is coated thick with BS. Serenity now!
BS Fairman,
WRONG! It wasn’t Scotland that couldn’t repay their debts but the aristocratic & moneyed class that lost their money on their Darien adventure & negotiated the 1707 union in secret to waive them. When the populace found out it sparked weeks of riots & the perpetrators had to make a run for it to their London townhouses.
If talkback on Aunty and posts on the SMH site are a guide I’m not sure the “Commie” threat is going down all that well for Morrison and Dutts.
__________________________________________
By the way, GG, I trust you’re now well, given your overdose of nasty tabs the other night. As youngsters, we used to call it shit on the liver.
__________________________________________
I do hope Lizzie’s okay.
__________________________________________
alfred, I appreciate your posts, absent rancor, quite instructive.
The longer this laughingly-called “standoff” goes on, the more I am convinced that Putin is bluffing. You just don’t launch a war in Europe these days. It’s all too interconnected. NATO won’t have gas, for example, but Russia won’t be selling gas, either. The Comrade Oligarchs won’t be in favour of that. Russia is not the Russia it used to be. We all get along nowadays, rather than killing each other by the millions.
Zerlo @ #1715 Monday, February 21st, 2022 – 7:02 pm
‘Omicron Don’
Domicron
Rewi @ #1735 Monday, February 21st, 2022 – 7:37 pm
Thanks for your reply. It’s refreshing to converse with someone who doesn’t treat me like a fool. 🙂
I think ‘ifs’ are appropriate because I’m only considering potential scenarios that experts have canvassed. However, they are in the realm of educated guesses and so I included them. I may not have included them in the first instance but I knew what I was talking about! 😆
As far as the ‘Anglosphere’ is concerned, I think it’s fast being replaced by the ‘Democracysphere’, those countries who wish to preserve it. Many not Anglo countries per se, like India, Japan and Korea.
There will thus be an expansion of the Quad to include these countries. I think that they don’t only want to contain China but any and all countries led by anti-democratic Authoritarian leaders with expansionist designs.
I do think that the Post Brexit relationship between the UK and Europe is a second order issue at the moment. Boris Johnson has been in Europe as much as any other world leader lately.
BB, we have election night set for Robertson in the Southern Highlands with some well-connected relatives -hope it’s not a Don’s Party redux.
Although I did watch Don’s Party on YouTube recently – producer was Phillip Adams. More nudity and rooting than political angst in my observation.
Later this year to enjoy the delights of The Great Lakes.
I hope lizzie is okay as well. 🙁
“Scotland competes in a few sports separately, but not many, and not the Olympics.”
Sure they do. It was the Scottish men’s curling team wot won gold.