Polls: federal Liberal leadership and Mark McGowan approval

One poll offers a new take on Scott Morrison’s declining standing, while another finds Mark McGowan’s approval down from phenomenal to outstanding.

No further national voting intention polls this week after the weekend Newspoll. Presumably this means the monthly Resolve Strategic will be along next week in the Age/Herald. Roy Morgan has for some time come along fortnightly and did not report last week, but the manner of its reporting is notoriously hard to predict. Together with the ongoing New South Wales by-elections count, which is covered in the post below this one, that just leaves the following:

• Roy Morgan did have an SMS poll of 1080 respondents conducted on Monday and Tuesday which found Josh Frydenberg favoured to lead the Coalition by 38.5%, ahead of Scott Morrison on 31% and Peter Dutton on 12.5%. The question specifically asked, “if you were a Liberal or National Party voter and helping to choose the Coalition Leader for the next Federal Election, who would you prefer”.

• The West Australian had a poll by Painted Dog Research on Wednesday which found Mark McGowan’s approval rating in Western Australia had fallen from 77% to 64% since December, having peaked at 91% in September 2020, with disapproval up from 14% to 25%. The poll was conducted Friday to Tuesday from a sample of 654.

• Recommended viewing and listening: Antony Green explains the dark art of election night results projection, while pollsters Peter Lewis and John Utting discuss the even darker art of opinion polling on 2SER’s Fourth Estate program.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,870 comments on “Polls: federal Liberal leadership and Mark McGowan approval”

Comments Page 33 of 38
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  1. ”
    Elmer_Fuddsays:
    Monday, February 21, 2022 at 7:26 am
    maxsays:
    Monday, February 21, 2022 at 6:50 am
    More possible byelection entertainment, especially for our NSW friends, to warm us up before the main event in May:

    “Escalating turmoil in the NSW division of the Liberal Party is likely to force another byelection on Premier Dominic Perrottet, with Holsworthy MP Melanie Gibbons intending to quit politics if she is not preselected for the federal seat of Hughes.”

    Further to that, the SMH reports
    “There is also a plan to parachute former Young Liberals president Alex Dore into Hughes, currently held by Liberal turncoat Craig Kelly, despite Ms Gibbons having the backing of Mr Morrison. Mr Dore does not live in Hughes, and the push to impose him on local branches is being fiercely opposed”.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/turmoil-in-nsw-libs-could-spell-more-byelection-trouble-for-perrottet-20220220-p59y10.html

    IF Ms Gibbons won pre-selection, would she not have to quit State politics and therefore trigger a by election in Holsworthy anyway ? Holsworthy is a marginal seat on just 3.3 per cent. She’d have to quit right, Sprocket
    ”

    Melanie Gibbons is implying”Heads I win, Tails you lose “.

  3. I would like to hear Labors specific response to the AGL takeover bid and their official position on it if elected into Govt.

  4. Sharma accuses ABC’s Q+A of Climate 200 ‘set-up’

    Wentworth MP Dave Sharma pulled out of an appearance on the ABC’s Q+A on Thursday night, because he felt he was being ‘set-up’ in a debate with Climate 200 candidates.

    This bloke gives off the whiff of a total scammer.

  5. Barney – Wales.

    They don’t really have a choice.

    N Ireland has reunification as, at least in theory, a reasonable aim. A large (population 5 million) and rich southern neighbour that is likely to welcome them. A united Ireland, population 7 million, occupying an entire Island, and with established trade routes.

    Scotland thinks it can make it alone. They’re probably right. They have 5 million population, a decent economy, and existing infrastructure required for transport and logistics.

    Wales is smaller. 3 million population – 60% of Scotland’s. But their GDP is only 47% of Scotland’s.

    Wales has 1 international airport and 1 domestic one. Scotland has 5 international airports (and a bunch of tiny domestic ones to some very small islands).

    I couldn’t see any evidence of passenger ferries from Wales to mainland Europe. Internet’s advice was drive to Dover or ferry to Ireland and then Ireland to France. Scotland ahs a number of connections, both to Ireland and mainland uk – Wales is facing the wrong way. Apart from resources like oil/gas, shipping of goods in wales also seems pretty limited

    Wales would be reliant on England. Scotland could exist as a small independent EU national

  6. It seems a European effort at a solution, which the Yanks might participate in later once they are ready to claim victory. Presumably Boris will be allowed a bite or two of victory pie once the Yanks are done.

    –Putin and Macron agreed to resume work within the ‘Normandy format’ – which will also include German and Ukrainian leadership – and will begin discussions “in the next few hours” in order to “obtain a commitment from all the stakeholders” on a ceasefire on the line of contact.

    Meanwhile, a meeting between French and Russian ministers of foreign affairs, Jean-Yves Le Drian and Sergey Lavrov, will occur “in the coming days.”

    “This diplomatic work should make it possible to progress on the basis of the latest exchanges by involving all the stakeholders (Europeans, allies, Russians and Ukrainians) in order to achieve, if the conditions are met, a meeting at the highest level in to define a new order of peace and security in Europe.”

  7. Re Venn at 2.26 pm

    Gibbons is attracted by the apparent margin in Hughes (9.8%), three times that in Holsworthy. She is trying to remain a MP beyond 2023, notwithstanding her implied threat to quit this year. However, the margin in Hughes is inflated. There is a strong Independent running (Linda Seymour) and some of those who vote for Kelly may preference her instead of the Lib candidate. Seymour could well win.

    Fiona Kotvojs has finally conceded in Bega, saying “at the moment” she won’t run for Eden-Monaro. The Libs still lack a candidate. Palmer’s candidate was chosen a month ago, but he will be irrelevant.

  8. “Declaration:
    I attended Young Libs dos as they had the best parties with the…”

    Hehe, why the hell do you think I hung out with the libertarians?

    (Hint: it’s the same reason I found a liking for mixed netball.)

  9. [‘A former Special Air Service soldier has told the Federal Court that a comrade confided in him that he did not feel “comfortable or safe” around Ben Roberts-Smith and the decorated soldier had threatened to kill him.

    Person 21, who served in the SAS for more than a decade and was deployed to Afghanistan multiple times, gave evidence in Mr Roberts-Smith’s defamation case on Monday that a fellow soldier, Person 1, told him that he had been threatened by their comrade. The names of the men cannot be revealed for national security reasons.

    Giving evidence last week, Person 1 admitted that he received some negative performance reviews in 2006 and a warning to lift his performance. He moved out of Mr Roberts-Smith’s patrol and into Person 21’s patrol in July 2006 and his performance reviews improved after this time, the court has heard.

    “Initially, Person 1 didn’t want to speak about his experience in Ben Roberts-Smith’s patrol and I didn’t ask because I didn’t want to be clouded, my judgement to be clouded, about his performance,” Person 21 told the Federal Court in Sydney.

    “Eventually he told me he was threatened and he did not feel comfortable or safe.”

    Person 21 said he had witnessed Person 1, among other soldiers, being “left to fend for themselves” in Mr Roberts-Smith’s patrol during a mission in Afghanistan’s Chora Pass.

    “No one was really helping them with their equipment. They weren’t grouped together talking or banter[ing] like I would expect from my patrol where people are joking around or talking about the mission,” he said.

    Person 21 said Person 1 later told him that “Ben Roberts-Smith told me he was going to f–k me off out of the unit”.

    He said Person 1 also said “something along the lines of … ‘he threatened to kill me’.”]

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/soldier-told-comrade-he-didn-t-feel-safe-around-roberts-smith-court-told-20220221-p59ya2.html

    I guess an alternative explanation is that Roberts-Smith was concerned that P1’s alleged underperformance endangered his own life, Robert-Smith’s & others in the patrol, though it’s of interest to note P1’s performance reviews improved when he transferred to P21’s patrol.
    It may come down to Robert-Smith’s aggressive leadership style?

  11. Even if Melanie Gibbons makes good on her threat to leave, she wouldn’t leave so early as to trigger a by-election until after the federal election in May or September.

    I suspect as a Coalition MP she would have the brains to avoid being used as a litmus test of the federal government.

  12. Dr Doolittle @ #1606 Monday, February 21st, 2022 – 2:48 pm

    Re Venn at 2.26 pm

    Gibbons is attracted by the apparent margin in Hughes (9.8%), three times that in Holsworthy. She is trying to remain a MP beyond 2023, notwithstanding her implied threat to quit this year. However, the margin in Hughes is inflated. There is a strong Independent running (Linda Seymour) and some of those who vote for Kelly may preference her instead of the Lib candidate. Seymour could well win.

    Fiona Kotvojs has finally conceded in Bega, saying “at the moment” she won’t run for Eden-Monaro. The Libs still lack a candidate. Palmer’s candidate was chosen a month ago, but he will be irrelevant.

    Fiona Kotvojs is worse than Georgina Downer!

  13. byron
    The Normandy group are Germany, Russia, Ukraine and France. .Joe+BoJo will be served the crumbs. After AUKUS Macron will hardly be wanting to given then much. Then there is the election coming up.
    The Germans may be pissed as well . The holding up of Nord Stream 2 , largely at the behest of the US, is costing them a fortune. Their manufacturing industries will not be happy at the high energy prices.

  14. bryon @ #1605 Monday, February 21st, 2022 – 2:45 pm

    It seems a European effort at a solution, which the Yanks might participate in later once they are ready to claim victory. Presumably Boris will be allowed a bite or two of victory pie once the Yanks are done.

    –Putin and Macron agreed to resume work within the ‘Normandy format’ – which will also include German and Ukrainian leadership – and will begin discussions “in the next few hours” in order to “obtain a commitment from all the stakeholders” on a ceasefire on the line of contact.

    Meanwhile, a meeting between French and Russian ministers of foreign affairs, Jean-Yves Le Drian and Sergey Lavrov, will occur “in the coming days.”

    “This diplomatic work should make it possible to progress on the basis of the latest exchanges by involving all the stakeholders (Europeans, allies, Russians and Ukrainians) in order to achieve, if the conditions are met, a meeting at the highest level in to define a new order of peace and security in Europe.”

    There’s been a lot of shuttle diplomacy going on, appropriately so by the Europeans and the Ukrainians, it’s their backyard. VP Kamala Harris has been there as well, representing America.

  15. ItzaDream @ #1570 Monday, February 21st, 2022 – 1:30 pm

    C@tmomma @ #1560 Monday, February 21st, 2022 – 1:18 pm

    ItzaDream @ #1528 Monday, February 21st, 2022 – 12:41 pm

    C@tmomma @ #1502 Monday, February 21st, 2022 – 11:45 am

    There may be ‘no upside for Russia’ in invading Ukraine but there is plenty of upside for Putin.

    Also plenty of upside for Joe Midterms Biden to say they are certain he will.

    They d0 – told y’all; they don’t – USA! USA!

    And what sort of thing do you believe it is? A good thing or a bad thing? Would you rather Trump were in power and abandoning the Ukrainians to their fate? That way would lie a lot of spilt Ukrainian blood on the snow. But we’d all be safe in our homes here in Australia as we watched on, in horror or bemusement. If we bother to watch on at all. Except maybe for 5 minutes a night on the 6pm News. 😐

    C@t, I’m ignoring your third sentence; you know me better than that. I can raise the thought that Biden has politics to consider without that as the only alternative. (Oh, I just didn’t ignore it!)

    Putin is playing at keeping NATO at bay. It’s a dangerous game, both sides. Bleedin’ obvious.

    I wasn’t meaning the 3rd sentence to be a direct ‘jaccuse, but rather a generic statement of the alternative. 🙂

  17. Not sure why they bother with the all stars. It is nice to watch Curry drop them from way back but… well…. yawn. I guess it’s a nice break from the intensity of the season.

  18. Rex Douglassays:
    Monday, February 21, 2022 at 2:37 pm
    I would like to hear Labors specific response to the AGL takeover bid and their official position on it if elected into Govt.

    Wisely they would most likely let the market decide.

    New owners committed to action on climate change would be welcome.

  19. Themunz @ #1618 Monday, February 21st, 2022 – 3:07 pm

    Rex Douglassays:
    Monday, February 21, 2022 at 2:37 pm
    I would like to hear Labors specific response to the AGL takeover bid and their official position on it if elected into Govt.

    Wisely they would most likely let the market decide.

    New owners committed to action on climate change would be welcome.

    Given Labor is clearly in a very good position to win the election, I think it’s proper they make a clear statement on what is a big development.

  20. ”
    C@tmommasays:
    Monday, February 21, 2022 at 9:42 am
    Victoria @ #1350 Monday, February 21st, 2022 – 9:35 am

    Boerwar

    The Putin apologists are quite pathetic.

    Putin is playing peaceniks off a break. Getting them to think that it’s the West that wants war.

    How many times I’ve heard from Putin Apologists Inc. that the Ukraine situation has been created by the Military Industrial Complex of the West so as to sell more munitions. Completely ignoring the Military Industrial Complex of Russia (and China, for that matter).
    ”

    You yourself posted that you supported Iraq war 2.0.
    You and BW (although we didn’t have PB at that time but I remember you posting blogging for some other website) must have silenced people, who asked for evidence, with this kind of rhetoric.
    I remember Scott Ritter being severely criticised by many people for opposing Iraq war 2 because of lack of evidence. He turned out to be right regarding Iraq war 2.
    Even NYT and WP, the beacons liberal publishing, supported Iraq war 2.0.
    Because of Iraq war 2 and continuation of that destructive policy by the West in Middle East, the Middle East is/was now up in flames. And Biden was a central figure in that.

  24. Are we all looking forward to ScoMo going to the following for photo ops:
    1. Sawmill.

    2. Mine site:

    3. Train Station:

    4. Airport:

    I mean what could go wrong???

  26. Given Labor is clearly in a very good position to win the election, I think it’s proper they make a clear statement on what is a big development.

    AGL rejected the offer so far, so no point commenting on something that isn’t happening right now.

  30. sprocket_says:
    Monday, February 21, 2022 at 1:08 pm
    GG

    71% of mortgage lending professionals are voting Coalition
    ______________________
    I got a chuckle out of it too Sprocket. Call me surprised.

    Mind you Maggie Thatcher’s “well you tell me who and where and when” came immediately to my mind for the other 29%. They’re either not party to the rules of the Australian financial ponzi scheme or they need some good ‘ol ‘LNP re-educating’

  33. Q: Scotland could exist as a small independent EU national

    From what I have read, the EU will never let Scotland join. Countries like Spain and Belgium, with regions strongly advocating separation, will not reward a renegade part of Britain with EU entry. Rather they would like Scotland to whither as a warning.

  35. Ven,
    Every global incident is different. In this instance you have 3 alternatives:

    1. Diplomacy between the EU, Russia, Ukraine, NATO and America to resolve the issue peacefully.
    2. Russia invades Ukraine and America does nothing
    3. America comes to the aid of Ukraine and NATO if Russia invades Ukraine.

    Which alternative would you prefer?

    Also, I agreed with Scott Ritter about WMD because I closely followed the evidence. Doesn’t mean I have to agree with him every time. I advise you to closely study the evidence as well. I have been putting it up, from objective 3rd parties, all day. I can repost it if you like?

  36. I guess if the CLP is not registered they will just have to run their candidates as Liberals, or Nationals, or even Liberal Nationals.
    Are there any other groups run in for the senate in the NT? Any breakaway group?

  38. C@t

    Yes I recall lizzie stating she was 79 years old recently. Same age as my mum who is due to turn 80 in July.

    Hence why I have been worried over the past three or four days.

  39. Torchbearer at 3:46 pm
    The Scots can hook up with the Scandies in the Nordic Council. They are ‘in the area’ and it would probably be a good cultural fit as well..

  40. C@tmomma

    1, obviously.

    But of your remaining options:

    “2. Russia invades Ukraine and America does nothing
    3. America comes to the aid of Ukraine and NATO if Russia invades Ukraine.”

    What do ‘does nothing’ and ‘comes to the aid’ mean to you here?

    At this stage, so far as I know, no state, or NATO (of which America is a member) has said that they would go to war over a Russian invasion of Ukraine. They have certainly said that there would be very heavy sanctions. The most that has been said regarding a military response is that one or more states may provide assistance to a Ukrainian resistance.

    So I’m not sure anyone’s suggesting that America and its allies should do ‘nothing’ in response.

    But if ‘coming to the aid’ means more than sanctions, to direct confrontation between US uniformed troops and Russia, with or without NATO allies, I’m not sure anyone’s suggesting that either (standing to be corrected where anyone’s got a link to the contrary).

  41. Putin has a lot of problems to consider. The regimes in Belarus and Kazakhstan are aging and unstable, losing much of their support, especially among those born post-1990 and urban middle class(at least it seems so to me from my distant chair. Much of the apparent ‘invasion force’ are in Belarus on exercises, and Russian troops were “invited to quash disturbances” only a month or 2 ago in Kazakhstan. His tactical position for now is strong, but strategically less so.

    Invading Ukraine would only weaken his position, it’s weird to see Blinken et al practically imploring him to do so, and thinking they know the date and hour. Gaming and having a laugh at US intelligence is a bonus I guess. But in reality I think he has to now cut a deal, and crystalise some gains and security guarantees that satisfy Russian concerns, if Macron can present a credible route to one.

    For Macron etc this may be a (step on the) way to make the EU preeminent over NATO in Europe, including in defense

  42. VE

    A united Ireland is still little more than a nationalist fantasy. Most polls on the matter continue to show a comfortable win for remaining in the UK were a border poll to take place, and that’s even before an actual campaign which would point out some of the practical realities of a united Ireland, including exiting the NHS for the Irish health system. Even in Ireland, while a yes vote would start favourite were there to be a border poll, it is not a certainty. There was some interesting poling on this not long ago, where naturally there was majority support for a united Ireland, however, when pressed on some of the practical economic realities, as well as possible compromises to win over Unionists in Northern Ireland, things were far less simple. All this before we even consider the likely violence that would be stirred up.

  44. Good point

    —-

    As we watch what’s happening between Russia and Ukraine, it seems we’re missing a significant subplot: the increasing fusion or Belarus and Russia, and the subordination of the former to the latter.

    https://t.co/aEDddjbKJk

  46. I’m hoping that Lizzie is having a temporary breather from PB. As a consistently reasoned contributor who doesn’t get down into the gutter, she is a positive for the blog.
    The Greens/ALP wars are wearing but the current sabre rattling by people who should know better may also be extending her absence.
    Hope you return soon Lizzie.

  47. Sorry to ‘off the air for a while’ – traveling today.

    Really, Steely at 10.37am, talking up the economy under Fraser/Howard compared to Hawke/Keating?

    Any day of the week, comrade!

    Fraser/Howard bequeathed to Hawke/Keating an economy in the grip of the trifecta of ‘stagflation’: unemployment AND inflation in double digits AND low economic growth.

    When was the next time Australia endured true ‘stagflation’?

  50. alfred venison @ #1649 Monday, February 21st, 2022 – 3:44 pm

    england, france, and the usa quickly ruled out sending troops to ukraine back in december, this has not changed. this is why they send plane loads of arms & talk sanctions. -a.v.

    It wasnt until a couple of days ago when Morrison confirmed ADF troops wouldnt be sent that Putin felt it was safe to invade.

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