No further national voting intention polls this week after the weekend Newspoll. Presumably this means the monthly Resolve Strategic will be along next week in the Age/Herald. Roy Morgan has for some time come along fortnightly and did not report last week, but the manner of its reporting is notoriously hard to predict. Together with the ongoing New South Wales by-elections count, which is covered in the post below this one, that just leaves the following:
• Roy Morgan did have an SMS poll of 1080 respondents conducted on Monday and Tuesday which found Josh Frydenberg favoured to lead the Coalition by 38.5%, ahead of Scott Morrison on 31% and Peter Dutton on 12.5%. The question specifically asked, “if you were a Liberal or National Party voter and helping to choose the Coalition Leader for the next Federal Election, who would you prefer”.
• The West Australian had a poll by Painted Dog Research on Wednesday which found Mark McGowan’s approval rating in Western Australia had fallen from 77% to 64% since December, having peaked at 91% in September 2020, with disapproval up from 14% to 25%. The poll was conducted Friday to Tuesday from a sample of 654.
• Recommended viewing and listening: Antony Green explains the dark art of election night results projection, while pollsters Peter Lewis and John Utting discuss the even darker art of opinion polling on 2SER’s Fourth Estate program.
Sprocket at 12.48pm
I’ve told you once, I’ve told you a million times: do not exaggerate!
They only went back 32 years for their Commie Albo story, not 40!
alfred venison at 4:14 pm
Scotty must have just checked his xmas mail. He ‘announced’ a similar lack of action on Saturday.
Rex Douglas @ #1604 Monday, February 21st, 2022 – 2:42 pm
Vacuous blow-in.
The chance of Spain or others rejecting Scotland is 0%.
Scotland IS an independent country. Scotland leaving the United Kingdom is comparable to the UK leaving the EU. It is not remotely comparable to Catalonia seeking independence from Spain.
This weird myth that Spain would want to stop Scotland joining the EU has been dispelled by the Spanish foreign Minister – I’m not sure why it persists.
https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-spain-politics-scotland-idUKKCN1NP25P
Just from a practical perspective, Spain don’t need to care. Catalonia can’t legally secede without permission Permission from the Executive Branch of the Spanish national government
https://miuc.org/catalan-independence-can-catalonia-declare-independence-from-spain-under-international-law/
Whereas Scotland almost certainly CAN legal secede without permission from the Head of State or Head of Government of England. It will need to go through the Supreme Court of the UK, but they can only go based off legal arguments, and will almost certainly grant Scotland’s referendum legal basis
https://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/columnists/could-scotland-stage-independence-referendum-without-uk-approval-what-law-says-3111687
That’s why Spain’s Foreign Minister used that phrasing – they would support Scotland’s EU membership, assuming they either received permission from the UK PM to hold a referendum, or permission from the Supreme Court of the UK to bypass the PM. Scotland almost certainly can meet those conditions.
Catalonia is trapped, because they can’t rely on the courts – they need the permission of the Government. The Spanish constitution explicitly forbids secession, and unlike Scotland, Catalonia is not a country.
Whenever I hear people talk about NATO being a defence pact, I can’t help but think about Norm MacDonald’s take;
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=uXdtafGdIVM
And now we have Europe, through Macron, saying they should be shouldering more of the load. NATO isn’t a defence pact; it’s a “don’t militarise Germany” pact. A United States of Europe should make everyone ponder for a little bit. Not every leader is going to be like Merkel. The EU is a nuclear power and an industrial giant. They don’t need protecting.
C@t
Sanctions would be cold comfort to Ukrainians in event of an invasion., especially an attack on Kyev and the whole country as predicted by western sources. The Russians have already shown Ukraine that the west will not come to their aid militarily, except after the fact where they will supply enough materiel to maintain a running sore, proxy conflict and civil war. Simon Tisdall has an article on the topic in today’s Guardian. I see him as some kind of mouthpiece of a section of the spook establishment but can’t fault his argument here – that proxy wars are good for noone, and can easily blow up in their authors’ face (Taliban!)
For Putin, maintaining the climate of fear and the threat of invasion is more effective than actually invading, in my opinion anyway.
Boris Johnson can’t be taken seriously, hes just shouting whatever he thinks will save his sorry hide a few more days. His party is a laundry for Russian money
Reading the Russian side of that conversation:
1. There is a live war now along the LOC between the Donbass rebels and Ukraine.
2. Russia blames the Ukraine side for this.
3. The West is continuing to arm Ukraine.
4.This is causing civilian suffering.
5. Ukraine is the party which is in breach of the Minsk Agreements and the add-on Normandy Format Agreements. (My understanding is that both sides were in breach before the ink on the signatures dried).
6. Ukraine is not negotiating in good faith.
7. Russia is linking progress on its other more general demands to progress with shutting down the current escalation along the LOC.
That BRS defamation trial is … a clear indication of how ridiculous our defamation laws are. Journalists/journalism should be automatically exempt from defamation proceedings provided they can show some level of doing their job properly – that the reporting is in the public interest; getting multiple independent sources to verify claims; reporting factually based on evidence/sources; genuinely trying to get responses from all parties concerned, etc.
This notion that the press may be subject to defamation proceedings if they say anything negative about anyone unless they are prepared to have all of their sources ready to thrash it out in court to prove to a court’s standards that what was printed was “the truth” is ridiculous.
I assume that the EU would like Scotland to join because it is a wonderful country. Can’t ask for more than that, really.
TPOF at 11:55 says that obsessian with the US is absurd following critisism of the Gulf of Tonkin and Iraq WMD intelligence lies and that all countries bullshit about intelligence.
Can you provide more examples like the Vietnam War where about 1 million combatents died plus more than half a million civilians following the Gulf of Tonkin lies, or the Iraq War justified by false WMD claims where deaths estimates range either side of the 1 million mark, and then add to that the resultant instability in the Middle East.
News bulletins trumpeting big announcement of Australia finally opening up to tourists after two years
Haven’t we had a number of these “finally opening up our borders” days in the last 12 months? Is my memory faulty or is it more propaganda from the Ministry of Truth?
scottie has been stricken from biden & macron’s xmas card list this year, but now that australia has spoken the chancelleries of europe breathlessly await further developments.
here’s scott ritter on the current state of the u.s. army after 20 years fighting “ragheads” while running down their peer to peer capabilities, and why they won’t be going “toe to toe with the rooskies” (major kong) in this season’s blockbuster finale. -a.v.
UKRAINE CRISIS: US ‘Toolboxes’ Are Empty – 2022-01-22
The toolbox is empty. Russia knows this. Biden knows this. Blinken knows this. CNN knows this. The only ones who aren’t aware of this are the American people.
https://consortiumnews.com/2022/01/22/ukraine-crisis-us-toolboxes-are-empty/
Boerwars at 4:34 pm
There is a far better reason for the EU to welcome the Hoots Mon. A big up yours to the Inselaffes / Rosbifs .
There are five premises in the toolbox is empty kit:
1. That if US land forces took part USAF would not take part.
2. That if US land forces took part the USN would not take part.
3. That if the US took part no NATO member would take part.
4. That the Russians would be home by Christmas.
5. That the US would not engage the far eastern flank of the Russians.
‘poroti says:
Monday, February 21, 2022 at 4:49 pm
Boerwars at 4:34 pm
I assume that the EU would like Scotland to join because it is a wonderful country. Can’t ask for more than that, really.
There is a far better reason for the EU to welcome the Hoots Mon. A big up yours to the Inselaffes / Rosbifs’
——————————-
Mais oui!
There are other options for the US.
Re-ignite Russia’s various frozen conflicts.
Get Turkey to join in…
Arm dissident groups in Belarus and Kazakhstan.
Most of the Russian fleet would be sunk within the first week or so of a serious war with the US.
They would not know what hit them.
This would rather bring on the nuclear war option…
Then of course there is the question of whether the war should be limited to earthly passions.
It seems that the premise that the tool box is empty rather disregards space.
Strange, that.
Not indefinitely. It gives time for Europe and the West to ween itself off any co-dependencies they have with Russia (if they have the political will to do that). It gives time for Ukraine to increase its military infrastructure. It gives time for all the parties of the West to come up with a good policy and allegiances for how to react to an invasion (be it militarily in some way, sanctions, complete isolation of Russia or other pressures).
Right now, the negatives for Putin of an invasion appear to outweigh the benefits. Maybe. We dont have all the information, we dont know the domestic situation. It may well be in his interests. And after this grandstanding, give it a year, and the negatives might be a heck of a lot higher. Putin may see this as the last chance.
So it depends if you believe Putin has all the cards, has a mixed hand or is about to lose the house. I think he is stressed. And that makes this a little scary. Because if Putin jumps and the West all of a sudden realise there are Russian troops on the border of Hungary etc, I start to wish I had an electric car.
The US would be silly to allow Putin to constrain his war to land based fighting.
‘Simon Katich says:
Monday, February 21, 2022 at 5:01 pm
Maintaining the climate of fear and the threat of invasion is more effective than actually invading, in my opinion anyway.
Not indefinitely. …’
———————-
Indeed.
E. G. Theodore @ #1545 Monday, February 21st, 2022 – 1:07 pm
Maralinga, 1957. I was one year old and in Adelaide – but still carry the cobalt signature. It’s one of the reasons I have been a member of MAPW for more than 40 years.
Scotland IS an independent country.
No its not, thats like saying New South Wales or Tasmania are countries
the present spanish gov’t said spain would veto independent scotland’s accession to the eu because of the example it would send re catalonia & other “restive” eu regions (wallonia?, bavaria?, corsica?). it takes only one country to veto a membership application, or a free trade agreement, vid. canada’s last minute difficulties with belgian (wallonian) minor party objections.
likewise nato, last year hungary vetoed ukraine’s application for observer status in the nato cyber command. any member state could veto a future ukrainian application for membership. -a.v.
It is not that they dont have the toolbox. They dont want to open up all the good tools (and the secret ones) for a small job out of town when a big job might come up closer to home.
Oh shit oh dear!
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-02-21/ben-roberts-smith-trial-hears-from-army-officer/100848750
It’s kind of amusing the only pathway considered is military.
Again – the Russian military has decent hardware, but soliders in a way worse state than the US Army. They’re mostly conscripts. Putin’s actions reflect he’s got numbers and can certainly do a LOT of damage in the initial stage of whatever may or may not happen.
The idea the US’ toolbox is empty is kind of ridiculous, but I don’t think committing troops is the answer.
The Chaser
@chaser
Scott Morrison sues train drivers for plagiarism after hearing they’ve stopped turning up to work
If we accept Putin has been losing soft power in the region (I would argue due to his own incompetency, but I accept you could angle it in a way that the US and Europe are partly to blame) and this is why he is doing what he is doing, then one way to de-escalate the situation is to give Putin a better hand. Seems cray cray. He has a dud hand because he lost his good cards through dumb actions. But hey, cray cray stuff happens in international relations when there is a dictator who isnt good at his day job but has nuclear warheads and the means to land them.
The real lesson is; dont let your business relations with a crackpot grow to the point you cant live without them. No matter how much it enriches your mates.
No troops but Scotty has promised “practical assistance” . Winging its way to Kyiv will be what Scotty calls ‘practical assistance’ during bushfires, pandemics , whatever.
Voice Endeavour
Catalonia is trapped, because they can’t rely on the courts – they need the permission of the Government. The Spanish constitution explicitly forbids secession, and unlike Scotland, Catalonia is not a country.
————
I very much doubt that that view is in accordance with the International Charter of Human Rights. Self determination is a right under that Charter.
Your view would insist that a people can only gain their freedom with the approval of their colonial masters (or equivalent).
Your view also creates the national state as effectively a prison from which a people can never have a right to escape.
The current Spanish Constitution only came into force with the overthrow of the Francost regime.
oh, poroti, you’re such a wag 😉 -a.v.
poroti,
Somehow, I can’t see a fundie Pentecostalist using a prie-dieu.
“The Chaser@chaser
Scott Morrison sues train drivers for plagiarism after hearing they’ve stopped turning up to work”
The problem with that quip is that the train drivers did turn up for work: it was the NSW government and railway management that did a runner.
Losing Tech War To China? After Hypersonic Missiles, Ex-Google CEO Says US Far Behind In Another Critical Technology
https://eurasiantimes-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/eurasiantimes.com/google-ceo-says-us-far-behind-in-another-critical-technology/?amp_gsa=1&_js_v=a8&usqp=mq331AQIKAGwASCAAgM%3D#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=16454175220812&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&share=https%3A%2F%2Feurasiantimes.com%2Fgoogle-ceo-says-us-far-behind-in-another-critical-technology%2F
https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/Chinese-reds-under-bed-hysteria-will-not-scare-Australian-vote
A Chris Wallace article. Years ago she did a Dawn Patrol online.
BK has admirably filled her shoes on that.
I’ve read several articles about the train dispute and apart from oceans of waffle from pollies I have yet to read what the actual dispute is about. It looks like I am not Robinson Crusoe.
.
RTBU secretary: we still don’t know the safety issues
Claassens said it was still not clear what safety concerns the state government and Sydney Trains actually had that sparked the halt of the train system.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2022/feb/21/australia-news-live-updates-international-border-re-opens-coronavirus-covid-omicron-sydney-nsw-victoria-weather-scott-m?filterKeyEvents=false&page=with:block-62132c918f08fc958652bc6a#:~:text=Claassens%2C%20the%20RTBU-,NSW,-secretary%2C%20was%20on
”
Dr Doolittlesays:
Monday, February 21, 2022 at 2:48 pm
Re Venn at 2.26 pm
Gibbons is attracted by the apparent margin in Hughes (9.8%), three times that in Holsworthy. She is trying to remain a MP beyond 2023, notwithstanding her implied threat to quit this year. However, the margin in Hughes is inflated. There is a strong Independent running (Linda Seymour) and some of those who vote for Kelly may preference her instead of the Lib candidate. Seymour could well win.
Fiona Kotvojs has finally conceded in Bega, saying “at the moment” she won’t run for Eden-Monaro. The Libs still lack a candidate. Palmer’s candidate was chosen a month ago, but he will be irrelevant.
”
Dr. D
Hughes is the 6th affluent electorate in Australia. Till 1996 it was represented by ALP Minister Tinkler, who lost it with a swing of over 11.5% in 1996. ALP could not regain afterwards, whereas NSW Labor held Holsworthy till 2011, when it lost it in LNP landslide and didn’t regain afterwards.
It is mortgage belt seat.
It was once reported in SMH that Craig Kelly supporters allegedly threatened Gibbons in a public meeting. They were allegedly from ex-Yugoslavia background.
Well spotted Sohar at 5.34pm
Even the Chaser partly swallowing LNP propaganda…?
“Scotland IS an independent country.
No its not, thats like saying New South Wales or Tasmania are countries”
NSW has its own prime minister, Scotty, and its own government broadcaster, the ABC. Surely that qualifies.
Oh noes. Josh the ‘real’ Manchurian Candidate ? 🙂
.
See new TweetsConversatio
Oz@redrabbleroz
Even Frydenberg is ignoring the calls from his fellow Coalition MPs to boycott WeChat. He has two new paid ads on WeChat, including a paid positive article about why he is positioned to be Liberal leader after Morrison
https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/ymVROPEdgcjMv7WR9nZQPw #auspol
mp.weixin.qq.com
下个澳洲总理，要定了？
一面带着经济沙皇的冠冕，一面朝着未来总理的大位迈进， 他优雅的独舞仍将继续…..
Poor Cameron
You obviously haven’t a clue about Scotland or its history
not sure about ritter ? maybe try nightingale :-
The US is not Ready for a Peer to Peer Fight in Europe – By Keith Nightingale (*) – 2022-01-15
As we all have, I have been watching the impressive Russian ground forces arrayed to invade Ukraine from three sides. Some comments after consultation with a good friend in the Marines:
Upon due consideration, it might have been unthoughtfully wise to not place our military in harm’s way simply because it would have its clock handed to it. Our military, particularly the Army, is tailored for the 20-year war in the Sandboxes-not a Peer conflict.
https://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/us-not-ready-peer-peer-fight-europe
(*) COL Nightingale is a retired Army Colonel who served two tours in Vietnam with Airborne and Ranger (American and Vietnamese) units. He commanded airborne battalions in both the 509th Parachute Infantry Regiment and the 82nd Airborne Division. He later commanded both the 1/75th Rangers and the 1st Ranger Training Brigade.
”
imaccasays:
Monday, February 21, 2022 at 10:09 am
Piss everyone off, blame the Unions and then move on to the next disaster.
They will be coming thick and fast people. Get the punters worn out and confused so that they disengage and stick with the incumbents.
Minister on the teev at the moment lying by calling this a snap strike instead of a snap lockdown.
”
Reminds me of Trump tactics of dishing out atleast one outrage a day, sometimes more than one, so that people will forget the previous outrages.
poroti @ #1686 Monday, February 21st, 2022 – 5:42 pm
https://rtbuexpress.com.au/rail-workers-push-ahead-with-protected-industrial-action-tomorrow-but-worker-actions-wont-impact-commuters/
rhwombat @ #1671 Monday, February 21st, 2022 – 2:05 pm
But that was an atomic bomb.
A dirty bomb is a conventional bomb containing radioactive elements that are spread by the blast.
a v
the present spanish gov’t said spain would veto independent scotland’s accession to the eu because of the example it would send re catalonia & other “restive” eu regions (wallonia?, bavaria?, corsica?). it takes only one country to veto a membership application, or a free trade agreement, vid. canada’s last minute difficulties with belgian (wallonian) minor party objections.
———-
True, but the constitutional position is different.
The Treaty of Union of 1707 was signed by two sovereign nations. Scotland is not a “region” of England nor of the United Kingdom. It is a nation in a voluntary union with another nation. Under the Treaty the Scottish nation retains its own Law, Religion and Education, amongst other things.
If Scotland withdrew from the 1707 Treaty and became independent, it would be very odd for the EU to make Scotland the only nation in Europe to be forbidden entry.
Anyway, in accordance with the Auld Alliance, France would insist that Scotland be allowed to join 🙂
Don Key at 6:02 pm
Thank you.
Poor Cameron @ #1672 Monday, February 21st, 2022 – 2:05 pm
Scotland, England, Northern Ireland and Wales are all countries.
They compete independently in international sports, and Scotland and Northern Ireland issue their own currency.
Rakali at 6.04pm
A betting market I’d like to see…
Which nation will become a republic first, Australia or Scotland?
poroti @ #1679 Monday, February 21st, 2022 – 2:26 pm
That’s what he needs to stop destroying the carpet.