Polls: federal Liberal leadership and Mark McGowan approval

One poll offers a new take on Scott Morrison’s declining standing, while another finds Mark McGowan’s approval down from phenomenal to outstanding.

No further national voting intention polls this week after the weekend Newspoll. Presumably this means the monthly Resolve Strategic will be along next week in the Age/Herald. Roy Morgan has for some time come along fortnightly and did not report last week, but the manner of its reporting is notoriously hard to predict. Together with the ongoing New South Wales by-elections count, which is covered in the post below this one, that just leaves the following:

• Roy Morgan did have an SMS poll of 1080 respondents conducted on Monday and Tuesday which found Josh Frydenberg favoured to lead the Coalition by 38.5%, ahead of Scott Morrison on 31% and Peter Dutton on 12.5%. The question specifically asked, “if you were a Liberal or National Party voter and helping to choose the Coalition Leader for the next Federal Election, who would you prefer”.

• The West Australian had a poll by Painted Dog Research on Wednesday which found Mark McGowan’s approval rating in Western Australia had fallen from 77% to 64% since December, having peaked at 91% in September 2020, with disapproval up from 14% to 25%. The poll was conducted Friday to Tuesday from a sample of 654.

• Recommended viewing and listening: Antony Green explains the dark art of election night results projection, while pollsters Peter Lewis and John Utting discuss the even darker art of opinion polling on 2SER’s Fourth Estate program.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,870 comments on “Polls: federal Liberal leadership and Mark McGowan approval”

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  2. alfred venison @ #1419 Monday, February 21st, 2022 – 11:39 am

    The current size of Ukraine’s armed forces, which consists of 250,000 (215,000 military personnel), is the largest in Europe, and second in the region after the Russian Armed Forces.

    this number does not include private armies raised & maintained by oligarchs, like the azov brigade, armed border forces (53,000) and the ukrainian national guard (60,000). -a.v.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armed_Forces_of_Ukraine#:~:text=The%20current%20size%20of%20Ukraine's,after%20the%20Russian%20Armed%20Forces.

    And? Your point is? They’re not allowed to raise an army against a country which seeks to take their territory away from them?

    Okay. I guess. 😐

    Also, I think you’ll find that a lot of the members of the Ukraine Military are ordinary citizens who have flocked to sign up to defend their country against Russian aggression.

    Do you have a problem with that?

  5. The latest from The NYT:

    Satellite imagery collected this weekend shows an apparent shift in Russia’s military deployment around Ukraine. In contrast to the large-scale deployments visible in imagery over recent weeks, some smaller deployments are now visible. Several units or troops have been deployed outside of bases or training grounds, with some positioned along tree lines, according to an analysis by Maxar Technologies, who released the imagery.

    A small deployment of Russian troops along a tree line, approximately 20 miles from the Ukrainian border, near Belgorod.

    Russian units are also continuing to move closer to the border with Ukraine. Videos shared on social media in recent days showed military vehicles being moved. One video posted on TikTok captured a Russian military deployment less than five miles from the Ukrainian border.

    Most of these locations are in the Belgorod area in western Russia, 25 miles from the border, which has recently seen an increase in military activity. In addition to the movement of vehicles, a new helicopter landing site was established over the last two weeks.


    A new helicopter landing site in Tomarovka, Russia, 20 miles from the Ukrainian border.

    The Visual Investigations team at The Times, as well as outside researchers, have been tracking military activity in the region. However, the area has been cloudy for days, making it difficult to collect traditional satellite imagery. But there were few clouds around Belgorod on Sunday. New imagery revealed fresh tracks in the snow, leading analysts who pored over the images to focus on small deployment sites near the tree line.

    The new findings come after U.S. intelligence officials claimed that 40 to 50 percent of the more than 150,000 Russian forces surrounding Ukraine have moved out of staging and into combat formation.

    Experts who have been watching Russia’s recent military movements have paid special attention to the Belgorod region. Rochan Consulting, which tracks Russian deployments, stated in its Feb. 19 newsletter that “if Russia decides to attack, the Belgorod-Valuyki line will be one of the major staging areas for operations against Ukraine.”

    The Maxar analysis noted that most of the combat units and equipment at Soloti, a military garrison outside the city of Valuyki, have left and that “extensive vehicle tracks and some convoys of armored equipment” have been seen in the area.

    Peek a boo! I see you! 😀

  6. Russia is already menacing Ukraine. Whether forces invade or not, Putin is using military weight to strong arm a neighbouring population. He’s a despot. He’s a war-maker.???

    One day the world will wake up and realise that the only way to deal with “Despots” is to “Take them OUT”
    They have the means and the technology to do this !.
    Nobody should be “near” him if they want to live !.

  7. Granny Anny says:
    Monday, February 21, 2022 at 11:38 am
    TPOF, the point is that they have lied about their intelligence before so will very likely do it again

    ________________________________________

    EVERY COUNTRY lies about its intelligence – or just gets it wrong – or creates false flag operations – or misrepresents minor incidents as major ones.

    The obsession with singling out the USA in these matters borders on the absurd.

  9. The current size of Ukraine’s armed forces, which consists of 250,000….

    I may being pedantic; you said 150ooo is half the Ukraine army. Their army would be barely 150000. The military includes navy, airforce etc. And you cant include police or irregulars in a number for the Ukrainian Army. Otherwise comparisons become apples and bananas.

  10. I was listening to LaTrioli on the radio while walking the dog before 11.

    She interviewed a former judge, now head of the Centre for Public Integrity. Antony Wheeler(sp?)

    Palmer has already spent 31 million to distort this election. The former Judge was saying there should be caps on donations but also caps on the amount of money that can spent on campaigns.

    My take – where is the money coming from and will people turn off his message being pushed so heavily.

  11. Sohar @ #1427 Monday, February 21st, 2022 – 11:56 am

    Chomsky sums up the American-Russian game pretty well. Great little distraction for the unpopular Biden (and Johnson), as well.
    https://twitter.com/zei_squirrel/status/1495330478722850817?s=20&t=BMIvkeW6DyB_yWotOdKUgQ

    Because they started it. 🙄

    Honestly, the people who hew to the Far Left Pacifists in the West, at all costs at times like this are exactly the gullible ones that Mass Manipulator Despots silently thank.

  12. There was an article today about the 3 great global megatrends. One of them was the global move away from Fossil Fuels. I’m sure Putin realises this as well, which is why he is making his move now. As one of the other great global megatrends, to my mind, is the acquisition of land, as in Bunnings sees itself as more of a property owner than a hardware business, to the extent that I’m sure Putin would love to increase his land holdings and the human capital that comes with it, before the door shuts on his income from Russia’s fossil fuels.

  13. 1. Putin did not expect the scale of resistance he’s getting.
    2. The Russian Army has good hardware, but the manpower is deeply lacking in terms of morale and experience… there’s reports of the Army in Belarus being beligerent to locals and selling off their fuel supplies to locals.
    3. The Ukrainian Army is well-equipped and much better trained than it was in 2014.
    4. Ukraine is really big…
    5. The false-flags in the East are LAUGHABLY poorly executed.

    Could Putin invade? Sure he could, but I’ll say, I’m more confused than I’ve been in this entire spectacle so far.

  15. 1934pc

    One day the world will wake up and realise that the only way to deal with “Despots” is to “Take them OUT”

    Funnily enough that’s just what they told us we were doing with Saddam,Assad and Gaddafi and FMD didn’t that work a treat. 10s of millions displaced, millions of refugees , millions of dead and wounded ,$Trillions pissed up against the wall, proliferation of ‘head choppers’ but hey , we meant well.

  16. eyes on the prize guys. this is all about getting the americans to the table to negotiate a new security framework for europe, the old one is no longer fit for purpose. “war is diplomacy by other means” (clausewitz).

    since december’s tabling of the russian draft treaties, and blinken & stoltenberg’s initial declaration that there will be “no written response”, there has in fact been a written response, numerous video summits between biden & putin (with another on the books), between blinken & lavrov, between wallace & shoygu, a plethora of nato leader shuttle diplomacy (macron, scholz, baerbock, truss) and proposals from the americans for weapons inspections of the abm sites (like the one in poland) & measures aimed at confidence building around war games in europe.

    putin is not going to invade ukraine. ukraine is an economic basket case even the eu doesn’t want, populated by people who worship the memory of stepan bandera & have a pathological hatred of russians. putin will however vigorously defend ethnic russians in donetsk against ethnic cleansing. -a.v.

  20. And so it begins

    Revealed: left-field bombshell from Albo’s past
    A young Anthony Albanese participated in a forum with the official magazine of the Communist Party of Australia nearly 18 months after the Berlin Wall fell and the horrors of the Marxist political system were exposed.

    https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=DTWEB_WRE170_a&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailytelegraph.com.au%2Fnews%2Fnational%2Frevealed-albos-sitdown-with-communist-party-paper%2Fnews-story%2Fdc65dda6379f06d7b03679a514be6f54&memtype=anonymous&mode=premium&v21=dynamic-cold-control-score&V21spcbehaviour=append

  21. C@t 12.59
    “Mass Manipulator Despots silently thank”.

    I believe we have our own version of the above.
    We have a very unpopular LNP Government ( by Australian standards) and a PM with despotic tendencies.
    Making comments concerning the NSW train strike this morning exemplifies a PM looking to be given the tag as the most incompetent fool even allowed to call himself PM.
    Have enough Australian voters rung the bell?

  23. I was refering to the “Despot” not the whole Russian Nation !.

    Katfucious say; cut off rotting head, you still have a dead fish.

  25. C@tmomma @ #1511 Monday, February 21st, 2022 – 8:59 am

    Sohar @ #1427 Monday, February 21st, 2022 – 11:56 am

    Chomsky sums up the American-Russian game pretty well. Great little distraction for the unpopular Biden (and Johnson), as well.
    https://twitter.com/zei_squirrel/status/1495330478722850817?s=20&t=BMIvkeW6DyB_yWotOdKUgQ

    Because they started it. 🙄

    Honestly, the people who hew to the Far Left Pacifists in the West, at all costs at times like this are exactly the gullible ones that Mass Manipulator Despots silently thank.

    Well, if you push the boundaries, is it surprising when those on the other side start pushing back?

  26. “Honestly, the people who hew to the Far Left Pacifists in the West, at all costs at times like this are exactly the gullible ones that Mass Manipulator Despots silently thank.”

    It’s times like this the world needs pacifists the most. Perhaps you’d like to use the phrase, apparently incorrectly attributed to Lenin, “useful idiots”.

    If anything, I’d suggest that the viewpoints you’re criticising are anything but gullible, rather they are entirely skeptical.

    Anyone watching affairs such as this over the course of their lifetime can, as has been pointed out here many times in recent days, replay occurrence after occurrence of states of many flavours cherrypicking information and using misinformation to justify military action. Yes, Russia and Belorussia have been massive dissemblers in the past few weeks. But that doesn’t mean observers should suspend disbelief and unquestioningly accept what is put to us by our own government and those of our friends and allies. We (other than some notable exceptions) wouldn’t do it regarding anything Dutton might say about China, and we shouldn’t do it in this instance.

    The West has sought to contain Russia. Russia has on many occasions said stop creeping eastward to our boundaries. Eastern European countries have told Russia on an equal number of occasions, if not more, that they don’t trust Russia under Putin and that’s why they turn to the West for protection. Trump tears up a disarmament treaty. And so it goes.

    One thing that can be said without doubt: it takes a massive effort of cognitive dissonance to accept, let alone argue, that the people to blame for war are those who spend their lives campaigning for peace.

  27. It is high risk poker. If Putin messes this up and causes the economy of Russia to tank, there will be a move against him. Although he looks like a dictator in absolute control, it more a case of those people around him allow him to act that way. But if their lives, livelihoods and lifestyles are threatened then things start coming apart and they come apart very quickly sometimes. The KGB officers are not going to being dying on mass for Putin; it is not North Korea.

  28. SfM going for some Coalition ‘comfort food’. Johannes Leak will be overjoyed. He’ll be able to plumb new depths of wit free political cartooning
    .
    .
    PM warns over energy, strikes under Labor

    Scott Morrison says the Coalition would achieve net zero targets through ‘technology not taxation’ and warned voters not to turn the country over to the unions.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/politicsnow-coronavirus-live-news-morrison-wants-answers-over-china-bully-tactics/live-coverage/a2a667645948ce6bc29b822d81c5f076

  31. The NSW government have told Transport NSW to go on strike because the NSW government and Perrotet are not letting Fair Work Australia and the commie Unionist have their way.
    Everyone is jumping into the dispute without the facts.
    Morrison has lost control of any signs of leadership and has declared the ship rudderless unless the voters re-elect him.
    The NSW liberals have him in court in an attempt to have Morrison follow the rules.
    Perrotet, with the big shoes hardly out of the box has decided to be the hard man.
    This will all end badly for the NSW and Federal LNP.

  34. “Are you, or were you ever, involved with the Communist Party of America”

    Cf Senator Eugene MCarthy..

    The Liberal Party Dirt Unit going back 40 years to dump stuff to Murdoch’s goons.

  36. I think Putin is to be commended for his self sacrifice,,,,he has mobilized his army and causing all this fuss just to stop the incessant Labor Greens spats on Pollbludger…..what a guy.

  38. Rewi @ #1524 Monday, February 21st, 2022 – 11:34 am

    It’s times like this the world needs pacifists the most.

    On Russia’s side of the fence, maybe. But nowhere else.

    The West has sought to contain Russia.

    By invading and annexing its territory? No? Didn’t think so.

    Or maybe you mean by sending agents onto Russian soil to assassinate people with Po-210 and Novichok? No? Don’t think they’ve been doing that, either.

    So in whatever context you mean “contain”, it doesn’t seem to involve anything that violates the integrity of Russia’s borders. Putin may not like it, but he’s in no position to complain. He’s done worse already, and is poised to do so again.

    Russia has on many occasions said stop creeping eastward to our boundaries.

    Problem is that everything west of Russia’s boundaries doesn’t belong to Russia. That’s literally how borders work. Russia doesn’t get to say one word about anything that happens there. Let alone invade if their sayings aren’t listened to. Russia controls what happens in Russia. Everywhere else is none of their business.

  39. Jo Haylen MP
    @johaylen
    Here’s an idea. Instead of hurling insults at rail workers, how about the Minister sits down with the union and negotiates now so we can get the afternoon peak service rolling?

    Negotiate! There’s a new wordle for Elliott and Perrottet.

    (shadow minister for transport; via guardian live stream)

  40. Q: It has been called the bread basket of Europe.

    Ukraine is a basket case- one of the poorest ex-Soviet states, and one of the poorest in Europe. It has a GDP per capita around $3500, compared to Russia’s $10,000. Neighbouring Poland is $17,000.
    More than 10 percent of GDP goes to cleaning up and stabilising Chernobyl.

  42. There are two potential nuclear dimensions to a war in Ukraine, which could create a massive humanitarian disaster and have profound global implications.

    1) Nuclear power plants as potential dirty bombs
    2) Stumbled into war turns nuclear.

    https://johnmenadue.com/the-ukraine-crisis-could-trigger-a-nuclear-catastrophe-nobody-wants/

    (Tilman Ruff AO is Co-President of International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War (Nobel Peace Prize 1985); and co-founder and founding international and Australian Chair of the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN), awarded the 2017 Nobel Peace Prize, the first to an entity born in Australia.)

  43. Steelydan:

    Hawke/Keating were also lower than those under Fraser/Howard.

    Are you sure about this one?

    Fraser around 8 to 11 % under Hawk/Keating 11 to 17 %

    https://www.infochoice.com.au/rate-watch/history-of-interest-rate-movements/

    I am absolutely sure – home loan interest rates under Fraser/However peaked above 20%.

    To explain what was going on – the Fraser/Howard government had a centrally planned price cap at 13% for home loans. However, the amount of money available under that scheme was capped, at below the level required to purchase almost any home. So out to the market one had to go, and 20%+ one had to pay. For certain (smallish) loans of course the average of the two components was less than 17%, but 20%+ was the market determined rate. Likewise the home loan rates under Hawke/Keating (after the flotation of the dollar and certain other changes) and thereafter, have been market determined. The comparison to that Fraser/Howard market is as close to an apples to apples comparison as one can; the chart in that link (which actually peaks at the 13% cap for Fraser/Howard) combines centrally planned rates with market rates and is consequently invalid.

    As someone said, it is all a bit silly – interest rates are almost entirely determined by global conditions, with the most major contribution from the US. Since the US currently has both very strong nominal growth and serious supply constraints it will of course have significant inflation and tend to have increases in market interest rates; and will export both.

    One final thing – the central bank discount rate has very little influence on the real economy. It operates on the reserve account side, not the commercial (i.e. real) side and (as was hilariously illustrated by the actions of the early 80s FED) the discount window can be slammed down at any time, forcing the official rate to infinity, but actually just forcing banks to use the interbank offered rate instead

  45. A poll, and one with surprising results..

    New research conducted by Momentum Intelligence outlines who Australian legal professionals are planning to cast their votes for in the looming federal election, and the issues they care about.

    In December 2021, the Momentum Intelligence Insight Survey was conducted, exploring the political leanings of sector participants in legal services, mortgage lending, financial advice and wealth management, real estate, aviation, defence and national security.

    A total of 360 lawyers, spanning all voting age demographics, responded to the survey, as part of a total 3,257 responses.

    Lawyer voters going for Labor and Albo

    Of the more than 3,000 professionals surveyed, nearly three in five (58 per cent) are planning to vote for a return Coalition Government, compared to one in three (34 per cent), who will vote for the Labor Party. 8 per cent said they are undecided.

    Six out of seven sectors say they are planning to vote LNP, with mortgage lending professionals heavily favouring the Coalition at 71 per cent, down to the aviation sector at 55 per cent.

    The one sector that is bucking the trend is Australia’s legal profession.

    Three out of five (61 per cent) of lawyers who responded to the survey are planning to vote for the ALP, compared to just one in three (34 per cent) voting LNP. Only five per cent of lawyers say they don’t know who they are voting for.

    When asked who their preferred prime minister is, 58 per cent of lawyers said Anthony Albanese, while just 28 per cent said Scott Morrison. 14 per cent said they do not know.

    https://www.lawyersweekly.com.au/biglaw/33685-revealed-who-lawyers-are-voting-for-in-the-federal-election

  46. ItzaDream:

    1) Nuclear power plants as potential dirty bombs

    Fun (not fun) fact – only dirty bomb in history was in Australia – guess where and when!

    Dirty bombs aren’t what people think them to be (cf. Chernobyl)

  47. a r

    It’s neat how you pull out those parts of my comment that deal with Russian interests/concerns and argue about those bits in isolation.

    Being anti-war doesn’t mean being pro-Russian, or pro-Chinese, however much you or anyone else might find it convenient to conflate the two.

    And no, it’s not just Russia that needs pacifists, the whole world does.

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