Polls: federal Liberal leadership and Mark McGowan approval

One poll offers a new take on Scott Morrison’s declining standing, while another finds Mark McGowan’s approval down from phenomenal to outstanding.

No further national voting intention polls this week after the weekend Newspoll. Presumably this means the monthly Resolve Strategic will be along next week in the Age/Herald. Roy Morgan has for some time come along fortnightly and did not report last week, but the manner of its reporting is notoriously hard to predict. Together with the ongoing New South Wales by-elections count, which is covered in the post below this one, that just leaves the following:

• Roy Morgan did have an SMS poll of 1080 respondents conducted on Monday and Tuesday which found Josh Frydenberg favoured to lead the Coalition by 38.5%, ahead of Scott Morrison on 31% and Peter Dutton on 12.5%. The question specifically asked, “if you were a Liberal or National Party voter and helping to choose the Coalition Leader for the next Federal Election, who would you prefer”.

• The West Australian had a poll by Painted Dog Research on Wednesday which found Mark McGowan’s approval rating in Western Australia had fallen from 77% to 64% since December, having peaked at 91% in September 2020, with disapproval up from 14% to 25%. The poll was conducted Friday to Tuesday from a sample of 654.

• Recommended viewing and listening: Antony Green explains the dark art of election night results projection, while pollsters Peter Lewis and John Utting discuss the even darker art of opinion polling on 2SER’s Fourth Estate program.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,870 comments on “Polls: federal Liberal leadership and Mark McGowan approval”

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  1. Zerlo @ #1852 Monday, February 21st, 2022 – 9:21 pm

    Barney in Tanjung Bungasays:
    Tuesday, February 22, 2022 at 12:02 am

    You turn off one system, or if you have leaks in the system, it stops the supply.

    The idea of an intermittent water system may seem strange to engineers from developed countries. Constantly filling and emptying pipes puts a lot of stress on the system due to fluctuations in pressure. It also opens the door to contamination: rainwater or sewage can leak into empty pipes more easily than full ones.

    But Taylor believes there may be benefits to intermittent systems as well as drawbacks. “One obvious example is that a pipe can’t leak if there is no water in it,” he says. “If you have no budget for repairs, turning off the taps at night when nobody is using them is a very effective way to stop losing water to leaks, at least in the short run.”

    I still don’t see the connection to public transport.

  2. Trains are like water pipes… rightio then. My memory of trains in Sydney is the fluid (passengers) in them doesn’t leak, it congeals. And swears.

    It also opens the door to contamination: rainwater or sewage can leak into empty pipes more easily than full ones.

    There’s probably a joke to be made about the Armadale line in there somewhere. Or Dandenong, or Ipswich, or (insert shit end-of-line suburb here…) 😛

    And by the way, this.


    Morgan: 57-43. Must be the rest of that “59-41 in NSW” thing from last week.

  3. The swings broken down by state are typically all over the place, but what the hell, I’m bored. Here’s those state swings and Lib seats with margins less than that.

    NSW: 11.3%. Reid, Robertson, Lindsay, Banks, Cowper, Bennelong, North Sydney, Page, Hughes. (9)

    Vic: 4.4%. Chisholm, Higgins. (2) (Also makes LaTrobe, Casey and Deakin scary marginal.)

    Qld: 9.9%. Longman, Leichhardt, Dickson, Brisbane, Ryan, Bonner, Herbert, Petrie, Forde, Flynn. (10)

    WA 9.1%. Swan, Hasluck, Stirling, Pearce. (4)

    SA: 8.8%. Boothby, Sturt. (2)

    Tas: 9%. Bass, Braddon. (2)

    That’s 29 seats flipping from blue to red, before the teal complication. Ouch.

  4. Oh, and…

    “Today’s Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention shows the ALP 57% (up 0.5% points since late January) increasing its lead over the L-NP 43% (down 0.5% points) on a two-party preferred basis as Federal Parliament resumed sitting.

    Last poll was 56.5 to Labor in “late January”, apparently. Morgan are doing that weird thing where they do a poll but not an article for it. Turns out it was Jan 17-30.


  5. Perrottet’s misadventures today are straight from Thatcher’s union-smashing playbook in the 1980s. Orchestrate mayhem with the trains, blame the unions, get the public to turn against them.
    Am hoping that social media , reflecting public outrage in the main , will counteract the msm misinformation .

  6. Put down your glasses. The NSW Coalition government has caved:

    * Limited train services will run on Tuesday after a last-minute agreement between Transport Minister David Elliott and the rail union
    * As well as replacement buses, two pop-up car parks at Moore Park and Rosehill Gardens will provide “park and walk” options for people to reach the CBD
    * Senior ministers are convinced Mr Elliott should have had better control of the situation


    Scotty from Crushing Unions will not be pleased. 😐

  7. The weird thing; the coalition is putting a lot of effort into conforming their view. You control CCP influence for sure, but you don’t start a war with your main trading partner and you don’t start a war you will lose.

    Buzzing a war ship and dropping sonar buoys, right thing to do if it is in your area, expecting the war ship to turn off their defense systems, come on guys tone down the bullshit.


  8. What a shame the Clinton White House was full of C@ts and Boerwars so the likes of George Keenan were ignored. What he predicted came to pass.

    George who ?

    George Kennan stands second only to Henry Kissinger as one of the most influential and respected American geo-political thinkers of the mid-20th century.

    His greatest achievement was providing the historical and conceptual underpinning of the US resistance to Soviet expansionism during the Cold War. That posture became known as the “Containment Doctrine” and Kennan himself became known as “the Father of Containment”,

    What he said

    NATO Expansion Would Be an Epic ‘Fateful Error’
    JULY 7, 1997

    …………….. Diplomat-historian George F. Kennan perhaps said it most clearly when he wrote earlier this year in a newspaper commentary: “Expanding NATO would be the most fateful error of American policy in the post cold-war era. Such a decision may be expected . . . to impel Russian foreign policy in directions decidedly not to our liking.”


    Foreign Affairs; Now a Word From X
    Thomas L. Friedman
    May 2, 1998

    ‘I think it is the beginning of a new cold war,” said Mr. Kennan from his Princeton home. ”I think the Russians will gradually react quite adversely and it will affect their policies. ……….Of course there is going to be a bad reaction from Russia, and then [the NATO expanders] will say that we always told you that is how the Russians are — but this is just wrong.”………….As he said goodbye to me on the phone, Mr. Kennan added just one more thing: ”This has been my life, and it pains me to see it so screwed up in the end.”


  9. A reminder of the argument at the time re Nato expansion, for and against.. Interesting as both sides argue about a future that is for us the past.
    New York Review published an article by Strobe Talbot arguing for expansion. Their next issue published a reply signed by a number of former State Dept,Diplomats,Military etc etc . Looks to be paywall free. Super short titles for articles must have been the fashion back then

    In response to:
    Why NATO Should Grow from the August 10, 1995 issue
    To the Editors:

    The article they were responding to.

    Why NATO Should Grow
    Strobe Talbott
    August 10, 1995 issue


  10. the libs should be very worried about queensland. they’re already looking at a beating. Queensland is the State which has a sizeable portion of Coalition seats, and where their majority comes from. If the Queensland seats split down the middle with the rest of the States looking as they do at election time, they’re toast.

  11. This at the bottom of the Australian front page today –

    Is Palmer going after Labor exclusively again instead of campaigning against both the major parties as Kelly claimed they would this time around ? This anti-Albo ad suggests otherwise. The fine print bleats about the Coalition, Labor and the Greens but the mast head of the ad. screams about Albo.

    BTW, page 2 tells a story about a UAP candidate backing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

  12. Scotty from Crushing Unions will not be pleased.

    This is the twat that goes round workplaces pretending to be the workers best friend.Makes me sick.

  13. Can someone who knows what is happening explain why Russian army is on the outskirts of Kyiv? Was there no real Ukrainian Army or did they capitulate to save lives as a Russian win was inevitable.

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