Polls: federal Liberal leadership and Mark McGowan approval

One poll offers a new take on Scott Morrison’s declining standing, while another finds Mark McGowan’s approval down from phenomenal to outstanding.

No further national voting intention polls this week after the weekend Newspoll. Presumably this means the monthly Resolve Strategic will be along next week in the Age/Herald. Roy Morgan has for some time come along fortnightly and did not report last week, but the manner of its reporting is notoriously hard to predict. Together with the ongoing New South Wales by-elections count, which is covered in the post below this one, that just leaves the following:

• Roy Morgan did have an SMS poll of 1080 respondents conducted on Monday and Tuesday which found Josh Frydenberg favoured to lead the Coalition by 38.5%, ahead of Scott Morrison on 31% and Peter Dutton on 12.5%. The question specifically asked, “if you were a Liberal or National Party voter and helping to choose the Coalition Leader for the next Federal Election, who would you prefer”.

• The West Australian had a poll by Painted Dog Research on Wednesday which found Mark McGowan’s approval rating in Western Australia had fallen from 77% to 64% since December, having peaked at 91% in September 2020, with disapproval up from 14% to 25%. The poll was conducted Friday to Tuesday from a sample of 654.

• Recommended viewing and listening: Antony Green explains the dark art of election night results projection, while pollsters Peter Lewis and John Utting discuss the even darker art of opinion polling on 2SER’s Fourth Estate program.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,870 comments on “Polls: federal Liberal leadership and Mark McGowan approval”

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  1. If this railway shutdown was indeed a deliberately stunt by the NSW and Federal government, it may be one of the worst unforced errors I’ve ever seen by any government. It boggles the mind that anybody could have thought it could be a good idea. At best, they come out of this looking like total incompetents.

  2. Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #1693 Monday, February 21st, 2022 – 6:03 pm

    rhwombat @ #1671 Monday, February 21st, 2022 – 2:05 pm

    E. G. Theodore @ #1545 Monday, February 21st, 2022 – 1:07 pm

    ItzaDream:

    1) Nuclear power plants as potential dirty bombs

    Fun (not fun) fact – only dirty bomb in history was in Australia – guess where and when!

    Dirty bombs aren’t what people think them to be (cf. Chernobyl)

    Maralinga, 1957. I was one year old and in Adelaide – but still carry the cobalt signature. It’s one of the reasons I have been a member of MAPW for more than 40 years.

    But that was an atomic bomb.

    A dirty bomb is a conventional bomb containing radioactive elements that are spread by the blast.

    Um – no. A dirty bomb is one designed to spread lethal long-lived radioisotopes (like plutonium or U238) widely. This can, theoretically, be a (very large) conventional charge spreading radioactive isotopes which was one of the fallback shibboleths of the War on Terror when biological WMDs fell flat (because it could theoretically be put together by Axis of Evil Jihadis), but that was not the original meaning. The original idea (by Leo Szilard) of a Cobalt bomb was of a thermonuclear device with a jacket of Co59, which generated long-lived and very dangerous Co60 on detonation, rendering large areas uninhabitable for years-decades. It was a doomsday device – hence it’s use in Strangelove.

    The British Antler 1 test (Tadje) at Maralinga in September 1957 (conducted after the Suez fiasco) was a small “conventional” thermonuclear device “salted” with Co59 pellets, designed to produce Co60 on detonation – theoretically to track the fallout plume in the SA desert. Typical of our colonial overlords, this was not revealed to any of the Australians involved (except Titterton), and was only discovered by those cleaning up some of the mess – who were exposed to C060. It was a dirty bomb, but not a doomsday weapon. I think it corresponds to Red Ted’s hint.

  3. I would have been surprised if David Elliot was going to walk away from a ministry in NSW to contest a Federal seat when there’s no guarantee he would win it.

    If he loses his job as Transport Minister (one he is understood to have not wanted because he’d rather just be a tough guy in Police than do policy work ) his chances of going Federal would be even slimmer.

  6. With so many kiwis with Scotish heritage I used to find it odd when kiwi rugby fans would support England when they played the Wallabies. Then I found out that the Scots who moved to New Zealand werent refugees from the Clearances but reasonably well off lowlander Scots looking for greener fields.

  8. The problem for Perrotter, Elliot and Morrison is that Sydney’s rail system is a critical part of the city’s transport network. By shutting it down today, while blaming the rail union and Labor, they have pissed off an awful lot of voters.

    Patronage in 2018-19 was 377 million (Wikipedia) or more than one million per day pre-Covid. That is an awful lot of unhappy voters if the trains don’t run.

  9. Re Ven at 5.45 pm and the seat of Hughes (around Sutherland, once held, 1984-96, by Robert Tickner)

    The seat of Hughes is not the 6th most affluent seat in Australia, though on one indicator it is close. The 6th most affluent seat is Cook. The 7th most affluent seat, and richest Victorian seat, is Goldstein.

    That is using average net wealth per capita. However, I presume you mean median net wealth. See:

    http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/8391-roy-morgan-wealth-report-federal-electorates-may-2020-202005010002

    Hughes is the 12th most affluent seat in NSW (and 22nd nationally), according to average per capita wealth. But using median net wealth, which is probably politically more significant, Hughes is the 7th most affluent seat, ahead of Goldstein at 8th, using figures from 2020. On that indicator Goldstein is the second most affluent Victorian seat, behind Menzies.

    This is only one average indicator, which shows it is worthwhile comparing Hughes and Goldstein.

    Then look at the Liberal vote in both seats after preferences since 2001, which is quite similar:

    2001 Hughes 60.4% Goldstein 57.8%
    2004 H 61% G 60.5%
    2007 H 52.2% G 56%
    2010 H 55.2% G 56.5%
    2013 H 60.7% G 61%
    2016 H 59.3% G 62.7%
    2019 H 59.8% G 57.8%

    Goldstein is considered one of the most likely Teal wins, because of a high profile Independent (Zoe Daniel) and because the Labor primary vote has not been competitive (highest was 33.7% in 2007).

    While the Labor vote in Hughes was 42% in 2007, it has not been above 32% in the past 3 elections, so it is broadly similar to Goldstein.

    If a Teal can win in Goldstein, why not in Hughes? Hughes is broadly comparable to Willoughby, with the big difference federally being full preferential voting.

    There are two factors specific to Hughes. One is that two Independent candidates are running. Simon Holmes-a-Court’s money is behind Georgia Steele, who uses orange rather than teal, but the other Independent, Linda Seymour, may have more local support. The existence of two Independents reduces the chance that one of them will get ahead of Labor on preferences, and beat the Liberals.

    But the other factor is the odious outgoing member, Craig Kelly, standing for Palmer. The Palmer vote was 5.9% in 2013 but less than 2.5% in 2019. Kelly probably has no personal vote. He may struggle to get to 2.5%. What happens to the preferences of his voters may be significant early in the count, but his main influence will be in dragging down the Liberal primary vote. It could drop a lot because of how loudly Kelly has spouted anti-vax nonsense. The lowest Liberal primary vote was 28% in 1983, when the seat included parts of northern Wollongong.

    Relative affluence is no obstacle to the Liberal vote dropping that low, because of the Independents.

  10. “ With so many kiwis with Scotish heritage I used to find it odd when kiwi rugby fans would support England when they played the Wallabies. ”

    Maybe it’s a case of “the enemy of my enemy is my friend”?

  11. Something for Bludgers to chew on:

    ‘
    ….As recently as Wednesday, Belarus’s foreign minister, Vladimir Makei, said “not a single” Russian soldier would remain in the country after the massive joint drills – a promise echoed by Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov.

    Vladimir Putin’s spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, repeated his claim on Sunday that Russia had no plans to launch a military offensive. “We urge you to ask yourself the question: what is the point of Russia attacking anyone?” Peskov told the state-run Russia-1 TV.

    Peskov added that Russia had “never attacked anyone throughout its history”. But he warned that “any spark, unplanned incident or minor planned provocation” in the Donbas region might lead to what he called “irreparable consequences”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/20/russian-troops-will-remain-indefinitely-says-belarus-as-fears-rise-of-ukraine-invasion

  14. At the heart of Scott Morrison’s National Security and Dominic Perrotet’s Union Bashing shenanigans is the element of Trust: if the punters don’t trust them, then they won’t trust their scare campaigns.

    My prediction is that some paint may flake off Albanese, but not not enough so you could tell from more than six feet away.

  16. Which gives rise to the question “where were you when Trevor Chappell bowled underarm to Brian McKechnie?”

    I was at Cottesloe beach being fried by a glorious February sun, listening to it all on my old transistor radio.

    Do transistor radios still exist?

  19. Re Fulvio Sammut at 9.32

    Yes, trannies were in great demand in NSW during the wildfires of 2019-20 for updates via local radio.

  20. “that is a dramatic flourish I don’t believe Frydenberg is capable of”

    Just once in my life I’d like to see an Australian politician do something that publicly audacious.

  22. The ‘under arm’ game was watched quietly at home. Their next game however was memorable , I was there being ‘boisterous’ 😆 It was like being at the Colosseum watching the Christians and lions .

    The following year, the Australians went on tour to New Zealand. There was a boisterous crowd of 43,000 at Eden Park, Auckland, for the first One Day International of the tour

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Underarm_bowling_incident_of_1981#:~:text=game%22.%5B8%5D%5B17%5D-,The,-following%20year%2C%20the

  23. David Elliott’s lack of judgement is legendary. Unsurprising that he would be up for a stunt like this. But I suspect that Dom, while taking the same advice as Scott ‘I’m not responsible for that’ Morrisson both knew, and also may find that shtick isn’t as effective as he thinks.

    (I mean, seriously, how could you shut down Sydney’s train system and not tell the Premier? And the Premier is OK with this?)

  25. Watched the underarm from the top deck of the old Olympic stand. The Snedden catch (not paid) had as much influence on the outcome, GC scored 30 or 40 more after that. Shellbell that’s 176 came on the back end of Chappell’s duck season

  26. Dr Doolittle
    Roy Morgan doesn’t look right about Goldstein being Victoria’s wealthiest electorate when Higgins contains Toorak but William’s figures for family income has Goldstein (2,681) just in front of Higgins (2,674) and behind Kooyong (2,686).

  27. frednksays:
    Monday, February 21, 2022 at 8:24 pm
    The Victorian Liberals reckoned they were on a sure thing with their African Gang rubbish as well. The flyers in the letter box were oh so dark and menacing. The Herald sun was fully on board. We had posters on Poll Bludger assuring us it was a serious issue. The average Victorian’s response was “bullshit”.
    __________________
    As someone living in the Melbourne CBD at that time the blatant racism still irks me to this day. Angry white blokes in their 20’s to 30’s I’d cross the road to avoid way more than the Sudanese kids when I was walking back to my apartment late at night.

  28. So thinking about Sydney being the economic center of Australia. A self assigned title, but probably pretty accurate. I wonder how much money was lost today.

    I really hope SfM was somehow involved in this train fiasco because it shatters the better economic managers myth. Dom is swinging in the breeze on this. And the conspiracy angle is just off the wall lunacy.
    ABC news had a nurse in uniform almost in tears unable to get to work.
    What a clusterf–k!

    Labor’s interim slogan in NSW should be “We’ll keep the trains running, but not stopping them in the first place”

    Super own goal. It’s only monday…..

  29. Liberal politicians treat workers like dirt. They pretend to like them, as Scott Morrison is doing daily, but when push comes to shove they abuse them.

    Unions are just bodies that represent the everyday worker. They aren’t thugs. And, at the end of the day all a poor worker has to fight against the bosses with, is their labour, and so the only thing they can do, in order to make a point when they aren’t being listened to respectfully, is to take it away.

  30. south,
    Of course Scott Morrison would be up to his neck in this dispute in NSW. He thinks he’s running Waterfront Dispute 2.0

    He was on radio first thing this morning to run his lines on redneck radio. I honestly don’t think David Elliott, NSW Transport Minister, came to the conclusion that the thing to do was to shut the rail system down, all on his own.

  31. Since it’s apparent that the NSW Government – or at least, a faction within it – decided to shut down the Sydney trains, the questions I’d like to see asked of that Government is: When did you make the decision to shut down the train network? and Why didn’t you warn the public of your plan as soon as you’d made the decision?.

    Given that ProMo seemed to be fully briefed to go on Sydney radio this morning to lead the 5 minutes hate against the unions, that is rather suggestive that it was decided sometime late on Sunday night.

  32. C@t,

    Yeah I only caught the low lights of it during the day.

    What a stunning miscalculation.

    I did note that even to me the RTBU spokesman on the news was a likeable chap. He doesn’t come across like a John Setka union villan archetype, rather a friendly bus/train driver.

    So again, whoops on picking a hard enemy to hate LNP.

  33. There is a lot of hate on social media because of this, not aimed at the staff or the union but rather the upper management and the ministers / prime minister involved.

    Of course, after their failed china-labor linking failed, they now trying Union/Industrial Action linking to Labor.

    This will backfire badly for Scomo/Omidon.

    Especially when senior ministers involved in the shutdown.

  34. ”[Scott Morrison] was on radio first thing this morning to run his lines on redneck radio. I honestly don’t think David Elliott, NSW Transport Minister, came to the conclusion that the thing to do was to shut the rail system down, all on his own.”

    Scott Morrison is in full cornered-rat mode. He is malevolent and dangerous.

  35. A lot of very literal-minded people on the internet tonight.

    On the trains, what a complete and utter fwark up by the Libs in NSW, and kudos for the workers and the union for getting their message out through social media. Nothing says “not my doing” than a photo from your workplace with your colleagues, all ready to go.

  36. ”
    B.S. Fairmansays:
    Monday, February 21, 2022 at 8:36 pm
    I didn’t say the US and UK didn’t help us do the dirty on the French. But we were the ones lying to them and breaking the contract.
    ”

    Then why did French pulled their Ambassador from US for the first time in their Republic history? IMO, It is because they thought US betrayed them on sub deal.
    I never seen a US President like Biden did courting and cajoling a foreign leader ( in this case Macron) by so openly castigating an ally (Australia).

  37. ”
    Barney in Tanjung Bungasays:
    Monday, February 21, 2022 at 8:44 pm
    Nicko @ #1775 Monday, February 21st, 2022 – 5:31 pm

    The NSW transport minister is battling to save his job after Sydney’s shock train shutdown plunged the city’s transport system into disarray.

    Not just the Transport Minister, also Dom was claiming it was a Union and Labor conspiracy, they both should step down for this stunt.

    This is weird.

    I’ve seen no reason given for why the network had to be completely shut down
    ”

    Lucky this Train lockout happened after Super Saturday by-elections. Otherwise, Libs would have lost Willoughby for sure.
    David Elliott eyes may already be Federal seat of ‘Parramatta’. So he may no longer be caring about his ministry. 🙂

  38. Ven,
    People who live in parramatta use trains.
    I feel like tomorrow will be when the blame starts hitting the NSW gov hard. It won’t be easy to campaign on “Remember that time I fucked a whole week of summer up by turning off the trains, vote me into fed parliament!”

  44. Barney,
    Trains take so much traffic off the road, they are the only thing making Sydney the slightly livable hell hole it currently is.
    If everyone decides to drive in tomorrow, things will only get worse.
    The trains must function for Sydney to function.

    It’s actually staggering they tried a lockout like this. It’s like locking the doors on a hospital.

  45. Barney in Tanjung Bungasays:
    Monday, February 21, 2022 at 11:51 pm
    Zerlo @ #1842 Monday, February 21st, 2022 – 8:45 pm

    Because it fucks so many people’s lives up, and then it clogs other transport systems & thus the city crumbles.

  47. Barney,
    Well, there’s one way to find out, don’t use or drink water this week, get back to us next Monday with an update on how it went.

    😛

  49. Covid update:

    Delta has just about disappeared now and Omicron is 99% of cases genetically sequenced in Australia. The majority is BA.1. Less than 1o% BA.1.1 or BA.2

    With borders down and masks off, international experience tells us we should expect BA.2 to take over in the coming weeks.

    Some more discussion on this twitter thread:

    For those interested, Omicron BA.1 still accounts for 93% of cases in Australia, BA.2 6%, and Delta 1%.— Professor Adrian Esterman (@profesterman) February 20, 2022

  50. Barney in Tanjung Bungasays:
    Tuesday, February 22, 2022 at 12:02 am

    You turn off one system, or if you have leaks in the system, it stops the supply.

    https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/07/190702152753.htm
    The idea of an intermittent water system may seem strange to engineers from developed countries. Constantly filling and emptying pipes puts a lot of stress on the system due to fluctuations in pressure. It also opens the door to contamination: rainwater or sewage can leak into empty pipes more easily than full ones.

    But Taylor believes there may be benefits to intermittent systems as well as drawbacks. “One obvious example is that a pipe can’t leak if there is no water in it,” he says. “If you have no budget for repairs, turning off the taps at night when nobody is using them is a very effective way to stop losing water to leaks, at least in the short run.”

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