Polls: federal Liberal leadership and Mark McGowan approval

One poll offers a new take on Scott Morrison’s declining standing, while another finds Mark McGowan’s approval down from phenomenal to outstanding.

No further national voting intention polls this week after the weekend Newspoll. Presumably this means the monthly Resolve Strategic will be along next week in the Age/Herald. Roy Morgan has for some time come along fortnightly and did not report last week, but the manner of its reporting is notoriously hard to predict. Together with the ongoing New South Wales by-elections count, which is covered in the post below this one, that just leaves the following:

• Roy Morgan did have an SMS poll of 1080 respondents conducted on Monday and Tuesday which found Josh Frydenberg favoured to lead the Coalition by 38.5%, ahead of Scott Morrison on 31% and Peter Dutton on 12.5%. The question specifically asked, “if you were a Liberal or National Party voter and helping to choose the Coalition Leader for the next Federal Election, who would you prefer”.

• The West Australian had a poll by Painted Dog Research on Wednesday which found Mark McGowan’s approval rating in Western Australia had fallen from 77% to 64% since December, having peaked at 91% in September 2020, with disapproval up from 14% to 25%. The poll was conducted Friday to Tuesday from a sample of 654.

• Recommended viewing and listening: Antony Green explains the dark art of election night results projection, while pollsters Peter Lewis and John Utting discuss the even darker art of opinion polling on 2SER’s Fourth Estate program.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,870 comments on “Polls: federal Liberal leadership and Mark McGowan approval”

Comments Page 36 of 38
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  1. poroti says:
    Monday, February 21, 2022 at 5:48 pm
    Oh noes. Josh the ‘real’ Manchurian Candidate ?
    .
    See new TweetsConversatio
    Oz@redrabbleroz
    Even Frydenberg is ignoring the calls from his fellow Coalition MPs to boycott WeChat. He has two new paid ads on WeChat, including a paid positive article about why he is positioned to be Liberal leader after Morrison
    https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/ymVROPEdgcjMv7WR9nZQPw #auspol
    mp.weixin.qq.com

    A politics watcher from academia was on commercial radio this afternoon. He reckons that Frydenberg has been spreading the word that he would take a much softer line on China if he were the Liberal leader. Similarly, he would seek to accommodate the concerns of the Teals.

    Something is afoot.

  4. Frydenberg can’t challenge the week HE hands down a pre-election Budget.

    It’s also a little premature to start post-election planning.

  5. ”
    B.S. Fairmansays:
    Monday, February 21, 2022 at 7:26 pm
    The Americans and British didn’t really screw France on the subs deal. Australia was the one with the agreement.
    And France doesn’t want Russia moving into Ukraine any more than the UK or USA.
    ”

    B.S.
    Australia would not have screwed France with out the backing of US and UK. Simple as that. If you believe otherwise then I have nothing to add. 🙂

  6. That’s not my arguement at all TPOF. Some here reckon people like me “hate the west”. That’s not so, as I have written many times, the Russian leadership are bastards, but they are not alone. There are bastards and despots everywhere, including some of our closest allies, and even here at home.

  7. On the potential AGL sale: I imagine it’s possible that if a case could be made that the sale would substantially compromise energy security that there may be some ministerial powers of intervention.

    And if not I’m sure the coalition would be happy to legislate to get their fingers in the deal and/or running of the company post-sale.

    Basically, if this deal is going ahead it probably is largely reliant on the Libs losing power at the coming Federal election or else things could get messy.

  9. ”
    Rakalisays:
    Monday, February 21, 2022 at 7:30 pm
    On the news tonight the US has said, according to their sources, the Russians have a list of Ukrainians to be killed or sent to the “camps”. It’s more and more like mid last century.

    Sorry Rakali
    I know it is a serious matter but I am ROFL. 🙂

  11. Andrew Bolt is on board with the Coalition’s latest tactics. Reckons that Morrison might yet pull off another miracle with his ‘Foreign Affairs” election.

    It will be very interesting to see how the polls respond in the next few weeks.

  12. Rewi

    the so-called ‘Indo-Pacific’ region
    ———-
    Such a meaningless ‘region’….. why not the ‘indo-Atlantic’ they are oceans much more joined or the Atlanto-Pacific or the ‘Indo-Atlanto-Pacific’ (also known as ‘The World’). 🙂

  13. sprocket_ says:

    Monday, February 21, 2022 at 8:00 pm

    [‘BB, we have election night set for Robertson in the Southern Highlands with some well-connected relatives -hope it’s not a Don’s Party redux.’]

    So in effect, you’re informing the board that you’re well connected. Please get your hand off it, cobber. If so, I’m very happy for you?

  14. Barney in TJ

    They may be from Scotland , but they are representing Great Britain.
    —————
    When Andy Murray wins the London press laud another British victory…. When he loses, it’s a Scottish loss 🙂

  16. Frydenberg will do and say anything to save his arse.

    The idea that he is heir apparent to Morrison shows how shallow the Liberal talent pool is.

    I don’t think he has ever shown the competence or political skill to be a Minister much less Prime Minister.

    Right back when he was working for Downer there were questions about his involvement in leaking classified information.

    As environment minister there were things going on in his office that might well be investigated by an integrity commission.

    As Treasurer he fancies himself as the class clown but none of the rubbish he shouts in QT is even half funny. No policy? Crack a joke. Or sneer and smear. For somebody who had ambitions as a tennis player his serve is pretty weak.

    His attacks on Dan Andrews in the bad Covid times showed he is a man who simply cannot read the tea leaves and know when to shut up.

    And who could ever forget when he was struck dumb by Jay Weatherill. He showed then he had nothing to say and lacked courage to tell Weatherill to shut up.

  18. The Victorian Liberals reckoned they were on a sure thing with their African Gang rubbish as well. The flyers in the letter box were oh so dark and menacing. The Herald sun was fully on board. We had posters on Poll Bludger assuring us it was a serious issue. The average Victorian’s response was “bullshit”.

  20. I too really hope Lizzie is okay. She’s one of the most likeable contributors here, somehow able to constantly remain friendly and good-natured amidst all the daily lunacy.

  21. “The NSW transport minister is battling to save his job after Sydney’s shock train shutdown plunged the city’s transport system into disarray.”

    Gotta love it.

  22. Poroti at 8.25pm

    A Welsh friend of mine offered a very simple criterion for a successful rugby season: did we (in his case, Wales) beat England?

  23. The NSW transport minister is battling to save his job after Sydney’s shock train shutdown plunged the city’s transport system into disarray.

    Not just the Transport Minister, also Dom was claiming it was a Union and Labor conspiracy, they both should step down for this stunt.

  24. Nickosays:
    Monday, February 21, 2022 at 8:31 pm

    And Scott Morrison.

    Morrison will continue to link opposition to industrial disputes

  26. sprocket_ says:

    Monday, February 21, 2022 at 8:24 pm

    [‘Mavis, a former Premier of you good State will be there… hand off.’]

    That may be so but I still think you’re big-noting yourself, us plebs having no such connections? If one did, one would not refer to same. That’s the crux of the issue, in my strong view. I don’t think you get it?

  27. Oh dear. Dom would have been pleased.
    A senior government source confirmed that Mr Perrottet had no idea about the shutdown and believed on Sunday night that trains would still be running in the morning.

  28. I didn’t say the US and UK didn’t help us do the dirty on the French. But we were the ones lying to them and breaking the contract.

  29. A senior government source confirmed that Mr Perrottet had no idea about the shutdown and believed on Sunday night that trains would still be running in the morning.

    Yeah right, there he was having a rant blaming the Unions and Labor for it, now he is trying to wash his hand of this complete fuck up.
    I bet Scottys hands aren’t clean either on this.

  30. Golf clap
    —–
    so a full 12 hours later, Sydney Trains CEO Matt Longland announces that he is taking full responsibility for his decision to shut the Sydney rail network down today. Slow clap Bevan.

  33. Nicko @ #1775 Monday, February 21st, 2022 – 5:31 pm

    The NSW transport minister is battling to save his job after Sydney’s shock train shutdown plunged the city’s transport system into disarray.

    Not just the Transport Minister, also Dom was claiming it was a Union and Labor conspiracy, they both should step down for this stunt.

    This is weird.

    I’ve seen no reason given for why the network had to be completely shut down.

  37. Truth.

    TOOL TIME

    The PM insists he is all about “showcasing” workers, but how about he “showcase” some respect for those calling for fairer conditions?

    Scott Morrison today came armed with another galling defence to the mockery being rained down upon him for Friday’s gaffe, in which he lifted his protective mask to get a better look at the welder he was pretending to use. Addressing the ridicule on 2GB, the PM hit back at the “narks … in the bubble” for having a “crack” at him, insisting that his occupational cosplay was actually all about “showcasing” what workers do. “They’re hard jobs and you’ve got a lot to learn, as I showed everybody.” Morrison implied, as he often does, that those criticising him were actually undermining everyday working-class Australians – never mind that this is exactly what he does every time he treats their jobs like a prime ministerial photo op.
    The “narks” can judge away, he said. “But what I’m doing is showcasing the great work of our apprentices and small businesses.” Putting aside the fact that’s not his job either, the PM’s effort to align himself with workers here is insulting. If Morrison is so intent on showcasing workers, perhaps he could start by showing some respect to those calling for fairer pay and conditions – not least the rail workers of NSW, whom the PM was more than happy to throw under the bus in order to engage in some time-honoured union-bashing.

    https://www.themonthly.com.au/the-politics/rachel-withers/2022/21/2022/1645418437/tool-time

  38. Of course it was the rich who were running the show in 1707 and looking after their own interests by having their debt dealt with. But on a government to government level which is where the treaty was signed, it was a factor.
    But there was also the Act of Security 1704 that would have broken the union of the crowns upon Queen Anne’s death because the Scots weren’t happy with England’s Unilateral Act of Settlement choosing her successor. The English then enacted the Alien Act 1705 that would have barred Scottish trade with England and made the Scots foreigners in England which would have messed with the inheritance of those same Lairds and Nobles. So there were a few things going on besides the debt.

    As for Scotland Competing in Sports as an independent nation; it is Soccer, Rugby Union, Rugby League and Cricket…. basically Commonwealth team sports. They don’t compete at the Olympics as a nation as the lack a National Olympic Committee. Sections of FIFA have wanted the UK to combine in the round ball game but the IFAB control the rules and actually has a veto over who is and isn’t allowed to play.

  39. At a performance of “Norma” in the ’80s, I was seated next to Gough’s dear sister, Freda. We chated incidentally, which was interrupted by the appearance of Domingo. I knew both of them well? Some might draw conclusions?

  41. This morning the media was full of train “strike” stories pushed hard by the NSW Government. Unionists were terrorists even.

    Tonight we have a transport minister under the pump and a Premier asking questions and trying to deflect blame. Nobody told him is the official line.

    Pity the journalists didn’t ask questions before they drank from the Liberal cup of poison.

  42. jt1983

    “Frydenberg can’t challenge the week HE hands down a pre-election Budget.”

    Plot twist:

    “And Mr Speaker, the challenges that I have spoken of tonight, and how this Budget that I deliver tonight will meet them, are the reasons why it is incumbent that Australia has a new Prime Minister, and why I will call for an urgent Party Room meeting tomorrow to consider the spill motion I now move.”

  43. Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #1783 Monday, February 21st, 2022 – 8:44 pm

    Nicko @ #1775 Monday, February 21st, 2022 – 5:31 pm

    The NSW transport minister is battling to save his job after Sydney’s shock train shutdown plunged the city’s transport system into disarray.

    Not just the Transport Minister, also Dom was claiming it was a Union and Labor conspiracy, they both should step down for this stunt.

    This is weird.

    I’ve seen no reason given for why the network had to be completely shut down.

    My bet is that Morrison took over and ordered a stunt he thought he could win. In cahoots with David Elliott who was probably auditioning for the role of federal Liberal candidate for Parramatta.

  44. Andrew_Earlwood @ #1736 Monday, February 21st, 2022 – 7:36 pm

    “Scotland competes in a few sports separately, but not many, and not the Olympics.”

    Hmmm.

    I think that Scotland competes in many sports separately – probably most sports outside core olympic sports (ie. athletics, swimming, cycling etc – except for the commonwealth games).

    The sports that get the biggest crowds and TV/online viewership are Rugby and Football, by far. The Calcutta Cup (Rugby v England) had a crowd of 65,000 at Murrayfield a couple of weeks ago.

  45. Rewi @ #1794 Monday, February 21st, 2022 – 5:54 pm

    jt1983

    “Frydenberg can’t challenge the week HE hands down a pre-election Budget.”

    Plot twist:

    “And Mr Speaker, the challenges that I have spoken of tonight, and how this Budget that I deliver tonight will meet them, are the reasons why it is incumbent that Australia has a new Prime Minister, and why I will call for an urgent Party Room meeting tomorrow to consider the spill motion I now move.”

    And if it failed? 😆 😆 😆

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