Roy Morgan has become the second pollster to emerge from the summer break, maintaining its recent form in crediting Labor with a 56-44 two-party lead, out from 55.5-44.5 in the previous poll. As before, this is souped up by a much stronger flow of respondent-allocated preferences than Labor managed at the 2019 election. Both the Coalition and Labor are steady on the primary vote, at 34.5% and 37% respectively, with the Greens up half a point to 12% (strong support for the Greens being another feature of the Morgan series). One Nation is down a point to 3% and Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party is steady on all of half of a point, whereas it managed 3.4% in 2019.
The “previous poll” used for the basis of comparison here wasn’t actually published at the time, as noted by a keen-eyed observer on Twitter. Morgan’s last published poll from last year was from the last weekend in November and the first weekend in December, whereas the results tables on the website include a further result for the two weeks subsequently.
The state two-party breakdowns credit Labor with leads of 58-42 in New South Wales, a swing of around 10%; 59-41 in Victoria, a swing of around 6%; 51-49 in Western Australia, a swing of around 6.5%; 60.5-39.5 in South Australia, a swing of around 10%; and 60.5-39.5 in Tasmania, a swing of around 4.5%. However, the poll has the Coalition ahead 51.5-48.5 in Queensland, which is still a swing to Labor of around 7%. Whereas Morgan’s past polling combined results from two weekends, here we are told that polling was conducted between January 4 and 16.
I thought the protocol is for a state governor to step in if the GG is indisposed. Definitely not for the PM to undertake vice-regal duties.
‘Lizzie says:
Wednesday, January 26, 2022 at 6:44 pm
We do need a flag to identify us in sport.’
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I can think of few things that are more destructive than international sports.
Jaeger @ #2947 Wednesday, January 26th, 2022 – 6:19 pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xRvCwtLLV6I
Never stand between Scotty and a photo opportunity.
The Eureka flag is nice and simple.
We need to bring back the good old green and gold boxing kangaroo flag, just right in the 80s, and after a republic change the name to Straya, as thats how everyone in Hicksville says it
Oh and on the pomp and military show for Straya day, just get on with it and do it properly, North Korean style, I am sure a nice parade down George St with the new Mk2 super dooper billion dollar tanks would impress, some missiles and maybe a flotilla of warships and subs in the harbour
Straya day got the jingoist boost under Howard and ended up with idiot boguns cruising round pissed in cars covered in flags
@zoomster
This idea that indigenous people should not claim the term ” first nation” because they used 150+ languages is ridiculous. These people shared common values, customs, religious beliefs and many other cultural items.
Current linguistic thought today is that indigenous peoples shared a language form so that they were a nation in language rather than by geographical boundaries such a rivers or ranges.
In SE Qld,inhabiting Brisbane,for instance, we have two groups, the Turrbal People and the Yuggera People. The Turrbal , for ease of understanding, lived in what we would call North Brisbane up to about the Pine River while the Yuggera lived in the Southern Brisbane region. In effect, they shared much of what we would now call the Greater Brisbane Area. And much of their languages shared commonality, so much in fact, that both groups are considered today as part of the Yuggera Language Nation.
Add to that, having fluid borders ( to use a Western concept), trade, ceremony and other interactions resulted in a commonality of language. During the Bunya Season, both peoples would move into the Blackall Ranges and mix with the Gabi Gabi people to share the feast.Yes, there were linguistic differences, but often they would come down to differences in pronunciation of words. For instance, across a fair swathe of SE Qld, the one word for ” carpet snake” was , and still is, “kabul”. They must have been prevalent north of Brisbane, where we find the Caboolture LGA today.
Early explorers took with them guides/interpreters from settled areas to help interaction with peoples they encountered. Frequently, there was enough commonality between the languages for early explorers to find food and water, for instance. And peoples from different language groups shared their country with visitors- yet another example of commonality of culture.
Of course there is the famous example of Cooks team encountering “kangaroo” in the Eora People around Sydney, but finding no response to the word up north while beached near Cooktown.
Obviously, the huge distances affected this shared language, so there were terms and names quite different. That is to be expected.
So let’s not get into a debate over terroriality or borders as to defining a nation or nations. Here, there is clear cut evidence that indeed there were First Nations in this country.
The least we can do is to acknowledge this up front. Let’s move onto working out how we incorporate this incredible history and shared culture into this One Nation of ours.
Wat:
What about that loser John Curtin, who never managed to win from opposition?
citizen @ #2951 Wednesday, January 26th, 2022 – 6:50 pm
The NSW Governor was at the smoking ceremony and welcome to country at Barangaroo this morning.
‘Mexicanbeemer says:
Wednesday, January 26, 2022 at 6:53 pm
The Eureka flag is nice and simple.’
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Really? A bunch of whitefellas squabbling squalidly among one another about who was going to do best out of stolen Indigenous resources?
And she’s far preferable to SfM for speech giving!
Boerwar
The Eureka flag has no negative relationship with indigenous Australians.
C+ edit test
No luck
You cant have wheat on the flag BW!
Barley and hops maybe.
It is contenstable that there never was an Indigenous nation but that there were many Indigenous nations.
Gettysberg has put one side of the case.
The other side is that a shared language, a shared identity, a shared history, shared values and a readiness to defend the nation are pre-requisites for the existence of a nation.
Little or none of this of this obtained between Indigenous Australians living in what is now Victoria and Indigenous Australians living in what is now Western Australia.
I am not aware that anyone argues that there were not wars between Indigenous nations. I am not aware that anyone argues that some Indigenous nations were expanding and that others were contracting.
This does not stop those nations from forging a national identify over the last two centuries.
Bushfire Bill @ #2678 Wednesday, January 26th, 2022 – 10:15 am
+1
‘Simon Katich says:
Wednesday, January 26, 2022 at 7:03 pm
You cant have wheat on the flag BW!
Barley and hops maybe.’
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I insist on wheat being the national flower. A point in its favour is that it is self-fertilizing.
BK @ #2960 Wednesday, January 26th, 2022 – 7:02 pm
I will try it.
“First nations” is a borrowed American term which appears lately to have become fashionable in the media, particularly the ABC and SBS. I’d greatly prefer it if the Indigenous people of Australia could devise their own term. Traditional Aboriginal forms of governance are about as far removed from the Western concept of a “nation” as they could possibly be. I liked “Indigenous peoples” (the use of the plural being significant).
However, of course it should ultimately be up to these people to determine the terms that are used to describe them and their societies.
SK,
A can of VB?
I have often observed that colonialism corrupts just about everything it touches.
One of the issues that confronts both non-Indigenous and Indigenous people in Australia is that many of the Indigenous massacres in Australia were carried out by Indigenous people organized, armed, and led by non-Indigenous people.
It is arguable that the willingness of Indigenous mercenaries to behave in this fashion was that they felt no loyalty all to the (foreign Indigenous) nations they were helping non-Indigenous people subjugate.
Bindii is self fertilizing.
SK
In the spirit of inclusiveness I am willing to countenance a discussion on wheat being the flag flower and the bindii being the flag seed.
“Where do the Liberals find these people?”
Under rocks downstream from toxic waste dumps. 🙁
The Liberals are self-propagating.
GG, so long as it isnt West End.
Or that awful sludge the locals call “pale ale”. I dont care if the company is family owned and run for decades. The beer is rank.
BK,
Okay.
1. See mistake.
2. Click on C+
3. Untick the box ‘Override HTML comments’
4. Click on box in bottom left corner ‘Save’
5. Message appears ‘Changes saved’
6. Refresh page
7. Search for your comment. It is usually at the bottom of the page somewhere.
8. You will see the option at the bottom of your comment to ‘Edit Comment’.
9. Click on this.
10. Box with your comment inside will open and allow editing.
11. Press ‘Save’
12. Click on C+ again.
13. Re-tick box ‘Override HTML comments’
14. Click on ‘Save’ again.
15. Message appears ‘Changes saved!’
16. Refresh page again.
17. Your comment with edits appears.
18. Job done. It’s not that hard once you get used to doing it.
19. Thank you, Bert
20. Thank you, ball boys. 🙂
ps Get back to me if this doesn’t still work for you. 🙂
Boerwar
Tribal wars were common just as city state wars were common in Europe. I read a leading Melbourne Indigenous elder talk about the Westernport tribe didn’t like the Gippsland tribe and there was a story told by Buckley about a war like tribe along what is today called the Surf Coast.
SK
In the spirit of inclusiveness I am willing to countenance a discussion on wheat being the flag flower and the bindii being the flag seed.
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We may need two flags.
In fact…. why stop at two?
There’s only two things I hate in this world. People who are intolerant of other people’s cultures and the Dutch.
‘Mexicanbeemer says:
Wednesday, January 26, 2022 at 7:14 pm
Boerwar
Tribal wars were common just as city state wars were common in Europe. I once read a leading Melbourne Indigenous elder talk about how the Westernport tribe didn’t like the Gippsland tribe and there was a story told by Buckley about a war like tribe along what is today called the Surf Coast.’
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I should point out that this is contested territory. There are historians who hold that as the Frontier rolled through the continent it created such an economic, social, health and environmental disturbance that the disturbance itself created unusual behaviours on the part of the Indigenous inhabitants. The other issue is that non-Indigenous observers very often did not have a clue about what was motivating Indigenous people and routinely misinterpreted what they ‘saw’.
Boerwar
Buckley was taken in after they found him holding a spear of a recently died warrior and they thought he had come back from the dead.
Wat Tyler says:
Wednesday, January 26, 2022 at 6:49 pm
Asha @ #2946 Wednesday, January 26th, 2022 – 6:16 pm
I’m glad Briefly is here to explain how many times Labor has managed to win from opposition. Due to my retrograde amnesia I had already forgotten all the previous times he has enlightened us about that.
Fun fact: Despite being the party’s most successful leader, Hawke only once managed to lead Labor to a win from opposition.
The greatest PM we have ever had, John Curtin, was unable to win from Opposition.
Frank Tudor 1917
Frank Tudor 1919
Matthew Charlton 1922
Matthew Charlton 1925
James Scullin 1928
James Scullin 1929
James Scullin 1931
James Scullin 1934
John Curtin 1937
John Curtin 1940
Herbert Evatt 1951
Herbert Evatt 1954
Herbert Evatt 1955
Herbert Evatt 1958
Arthur Calwell 1961
Arthur Calwell 1963
Arthur Calwell 1966
Gough Whitlam 1969
Gough Whitlam 1972
Gough Whitlam 1977
Bill Hayden 1980
Bob Hawke 1983
Kim Beazley 1998
Kim Beazley 2001
Mark Latham 2004
Kevin Rudd 2007
Bill Shorten 2016
Bill Shorten 2019
Labor Opposition leaders/contested elections. 28 elections. 24/4 lose/win ratio.
Scullin won in 1929. Gough in 1972. Hawke in 1983. Rudd in 2007. Curtin never won from Opposition. Scullin and Rudd won once each. Gough won 2 elections from 4 contested. Hawke won 4 from 4.
Anyone from Labor who thinks we’re good things for 2022 should reflect on the form guide. We can win. But history is against us winning at all, let alone running strong multi-term, successfully re-elected Governments. We run uphill at all times.
If Albo wins, it will be a truly remarkable and historic achievement.
Insane?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-26/bollywood-star-shilpa-shetty-cleared-of-2007-obscenity-charges/100783880
BB: I can’t be bothered reading Jack Waterford’s latest effort because, having once lived in Canberra where I read the local rag regularly, I’m familiar with his work and it’s never been any good IMO.
However, if he’s arguing that the slight mystery around what Albo might really be on about is going to be a plus for ScoMo, he’s spot on IMO.
You have actually identified the important issues in your post:
“Inflation is rampaging. Interest rates are about to rise. No-one who isn’t a millionaire can afford to buy a house. ”
One thing that we have seen over the years is that the electorate won’t vote Labor in from opposition when they are greatly concerned about the economy. (They clearly did vote for an incumbent Labor Government in 1990 and 1993 for this reason, but that’s a different situation.)
Albo is a potential target for a scare campaign that he will preside over double digit inflation fuelled by a wages breakout and a spend-a-thon financed by tax increases . He won’t be able to do a Rudd and convincingly describe himself as a “fiscal conservative,” because he definitely isn’t one. Nor will lots of rhetoric about “fairness” and “helping your mates” do the job.
Perhaps the electorate’s anger about how COVID-19 has been managed will sweep all these economic concerns to one side. If it lasts.
Labor certainly has a very good chance of forming the next government, but it isn’t going to be a walk in the park. Lots of unhatched chickens being counted on PB these days.
M
I know the Buckley story reasonably well.
Speaking of culture nath – I was once on a small bus in the north west of Sichuan and a wild looking Tibetan chap was staring at me with what looked like a smile. I smiled back but started to realise he wasnt smiling – he was baring his teeth!
The relationship warmed when engine caught on fire and we jumped out of the window together. I still wear his woollen hat.
It would be nice if the commentariat actually looked at what is happening in Australian politics.
Morrison needs to make Albanese the issue and vice versa.
I put Albanese streets ahead on that particular issue, ATM.
Morrison needs ‘angles’ to spread fear campaigns against Labor.
Labor is streets ahead on having defused fear campaigns, ATM.
Morrison and Albanese both want to be seen, above all, as a safe pair of hands.
Albanese is streets ahead on that issue as well, ATM.
WA’s changed border rules from February 5. Also looks like MPs will be able to travel to WA on “official business” which presumably means election campaigning, even though I reckon that’s a stretch.
https://thewest.com.au/news/coronavirus/covid-19-who-can-enter-wa-under-expanded-travel-criteria-from-february-5–c-5456114
Don’t count me in your chicken counters, meher baba! Once bitten in 2019, twice shy in 2022.
Someone was whining about somebody refusing to shake the PM’s hand. He does set the example.
MB
One thing that we have seen over the years is that the electorate won’t vote Labor in from opposition when they are greatly concerned about the economy.
The exception is 1983. Hawke won at the low-point in a steep contraction. Howard and Fraser did their best to buy their way out defeat, but failed. However, in general, Labor has done best when the economy has been going well.
For some reason, voters think the reactionaries are less likely than Labor to fuck up the economy. There is no serious foundation for this belief.
More William Barton, less weird graphics please.
The Australian flag needs to be changed when we become a republic.
The Australian symbol on all our airforce,navy and army machines is a Red Kangarro.
This is internationally recognised as Australias symbol and should simply replace the union jack on our flag.Perhaps the star of federation could be elevated as well and have the kangaroo inside the star.
Covid changes the political landscape only because Morrison hasn’t done a good enough job of managing it and he was facing an uphill battle to win because he has to repeat his 2019 win by scoring a swing to him and that becomes harder for older governments and the Liberals usually win because of support amongst women and that is the one group Morrison is struggling.
”Labor certainly has a very good chance of forming the next government, but it isn’t going to be a walk in the park. Lots of unhatched chickens being counted on PB these days.”
Not counting any chickens. Maybe a bit over 50% of the people say they want to change now but 95% of the money doesn’t want change and the bad guys hold all the big megaphones.
BW: “I should point out that this is contested territory. There are historians who hold that as the Frontier rolled through the continent it created such an economic, social, health and environmental disturbance that the disturbance itself created unusual behaviours on the part of the Indigenous inhabitants. The other issue is that non-Indigenous observers very often did not have a clue about what was motivating Indigenous people and routinely misinterpreted what they ‘saw’.”
To the extent that we can accept the accounts of the first colonists to arrive in various parts of the continent, we can conclude that there were certainly religious and cultural protocols that helped to prevent conflict between communities, as well as a propensity to conduct mock battles in which Aboriginal warriors demonstrated great skill in managing their weapons to avoid inflicting injuries. And it also seems certain that early colonists would have misinterpreted some of these mock battles as being real warfare.
However, pre-colonial Aboriginal societies gave every appearance of being warrior socities, in which males were trained in the arts of war. It’s difficult to believe that they were never required to practice these arts. We do have a collected story from the Gunnedah area about the 18th century Kamilaroi (or, if you like, Gamilaraay) warrior and leader Combo Gunnerah, who is said to have led his people to a great victory over an invading group (you can read a highly embellished, at times rather silly, and undoubtedly unwoke version of this story in Ion Idriess’s book The Red Chief).
There are also stories of the Warlpiri people of Central Australia – who retain a reputation to this day among surrounding of being extremely fierce – committing significant violence against neighbouring groups before the arrival of White people.
And, as I’m sure you’d be well aware BW, there are undoubtedly inter-tribal conflicts today in quite a few Indigenous settlements and suburbs of our towns and cities (I’ve personally witnessed a pretty scary one in Dubbo, NSW). But I guess the historians to whom you refer would argue that these are to some extent a manifestation of the effects of colonialism.
There are two people standing on the tip of the tallest sail on the Opera House.
Dr Fumbles
The boxing kangaroo goes back at least to 1941 and 21sqn in Singapore at the time, was painted on the sides of their Wirraways. In sacello est, later Secutor In Reti, to mean in the bag.
Was probably used in WW1 as well I imagine