Morgan: 56-44 to Labor

A second pollster emerges to suggest the summer break has done little to improve the situation for the Morrison government.

Roy Morgan has become the second pollster to emerge from the summer break, maintaining its recent form in crediting Labor with a 56-44 two-party lead, out from 55.5-44.5 in the previous poll. As before, this is souped up by a much stronger flow of respondent-allocated preferences than Labor managed at the 2019 election. Both the Coalition and Labor are steady on the primary vote, at 34.5% and 37% respectively, with the Greens up half a point to 12% (strong support for the Greens being another feature of the Morgan series). One Nation is down a point to 3% and Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party is steady on all of half of a point, whereas it managed 3.4% in 2019.

The “previous poll” used for the basis of comparison here wasn’t actually published at the time, as noted by a keen-eyed observer on Twitter. Morgan’s last published poll from last year was from the last weekend in November and the first weekend in December, whereas the results tables on the website include a further result for the two weeks subsequently.

The state two-party breakdowns credit Labor with leads of 58-42 in New South Wales, a swing of around 10%; 59-41 in Victoria, a swing of around 6%; 51-49 in Western Australia, a swing of around 6.5%; 60.5-39.5 in South Australia, a swing of around 10%; and 60.5-39.5 in Tasmania, a swing of around 4.5%. However, the poll has the Coalition ahead 51.5-48.5 in Queensland, which is still a swing to Labor of around 7%. Whereas Morgan’s past polling combined results from two weekends, here we are told that polling was conducted between January 4 and 16.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,089 comments on “Morgan: 56-44 to Labor”

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  1. Steelydansays:
    Wednesday, January 26, 2022 at 9:51 pm

    Perhaps it’s because I am correct.

    And nobody replies to yours because your posts are quite insane.

    Supporting a sociopath.

  2. Vic, this toxic masculinity vibe at the AO this year starting with the “siuuuu” movement and somewhat facilitated by Kyrgios-Kokkinakis… really quite distasteful stuff.

    That it extends so far as harassing staff is really appalling

    The AO organisers this year have really a lot to answer for – not stamping this out, peng shuai tshirt stupidity, novak exemption… time to clear the decks

  3. A couple of observations after the last 24 hours news cycle.

    I find it interesting that is so far to the left of all the rest of the Murdoch stable. I base this on the number of pro Grace Tame and Change the Date opinion articles today. I presume the demographic that go on there skew younger and less male and less white (I’ll confess I’m not that on 2 of those attributes if that’s what they’re targeting ie older and male but white).

    Any time from now when a male commentator (bless you Albo for that description) blasts someone younger and less male i’m going to look up their schooling. When he didn’t come from a white, male, Christian single sex school in a very rich area I may be be more inclined to listen. Has PVO ever engaged with someone like Grace Tame? From his performance yesterday in print and on t.v the answer seems pretty apparent.

  4. Ex Pat follower

    The toxic masculinity is not the fault of the AO.
    It is reflected in exactly the discourse that has taken place with respect to Grace Tame.

  5. Vic – its definitely a feature of this AO as several commentators have observed. I’m sure fueled by much alcohol consumption

    Scheduling 80% of the women’s matches during the peak heat whilst not toxic is also just another feature of why the current group running it needs a refresh

    But i was on board this train just with the Novak exemption, rest just seals the deal. The Peng Shuai t-shirt debacle shows how badly their instincts are out of touch

    The players for the most part have nonetheless made it great viewing as always

  6. I find these discussions about Roman history like an amuse-bouche. But how many of you have gone for the full Degustation Menu and read the history in the Latin? 😉

  7. Steve777says:
    Wednesday, January 26, 2022 at 6:13 pm
    I like the Aboriginal flag with the Southern Cross. I agree that we can ditch the Federal Star. We’d need the permission of the First Peoples (through their Voice if we ever get that set up) to use their flag in this way.

    I respectfully disagree, I don’t think you should change one flag that is divisive and change it with another one that is also divisive, you shouldn’t have one section of a flag dedicated to one set of people, we should all be equal

  8. Expat follower

    It has been very hot weather including the nights and drinking more as a result hasnt helped.
    The security have attempted a light touch in handling these situations. The key is apparently de escalation. Unfortunately these toxic idiots deserve no quarter.

  9. Yes right idea Steve, like I said politically you don’t want something that’s too dramatic or controversial of a change, something that can be sold as an “Updated version of the flag” rather than “new flag”.
    Hopefully if Albanese wins he will change it to this (you don’t need a referendum to change the flag) maybe early in a second term Labor government would be a safe time to change it

  10. Steelydan says:
    Wednesday, January 26, 2022 at 7:55 pm

    The Commonwealth bought the Aboriginal flag. Has it been ‘freed’ or colonised?- You can not win against professional whingers, piss and moan is who they are. Change the date I really don’t care but I tell you the same people will just move onto the next whinge.

    Very clearly, reconciliation has not yet reached the Ideological Reactionary Right. Australia is a country divided as to its origins and its fundamental nature. The Reactionaries have us by the throat, gasping. They like it that way. Our eyes might bulge and our arteries burst. They like that even more. Contempt is their pleasure.

  11. Steve777 and PoorCameron,

    I think they are very logical, non-controversial choices. I don’t think they would upset too many people. But I also think they look a bit dull.

    Edit: I can remember discussing a similar design with people back in the 1990s. I don’t see a flag change happening within the net 20 years.

  12. Thats true Cooper, but when you look at most flags of the world most of them are dull/bland when you think of it, look at the flags of the countries of Europe, most are just 3 stripes of colours

  13. 2 sets all – this is a great match. I think Medvedev is going to do this

    Boris really trying to rally the troops… a bit of the wind seems to be coming out of the parliamentary sails without anything new coming to light, but that should be imminent

  14. I think sometimes though you need a government that takes the lead.
    If you put this up against the current flag at a plebiscite I doubt it would get up!
    However if Albanese changed it at the start of a term, People would then get used to it, and after a few years if you put this flag up against the old one the new one would romp it in.
    There would be outrage from conservatives at the start but once things settle down people would get used to it

  15. Scott Morrison
    Flag of AustraliaFlag of India enjoy a wonderful friendship. While we celebrate #AustraliaDay today, I also extend my very best wishes to my good friend
    and all Indians on #RepublicDayIndia
    गणतंत्र दिवस की शुभकामनाएँ| #dosti

  16. In the early 2000’s, the Howard Government passed legislation to require that any change to the Flag required a plebiscite. That was about the same time they legislated the definition of Marriage. Both probably intended wedges, both let through to the keeper by Kim Beazley.

    What has been legislated can be repealed. However, the Flag and the Monarchy won’t be replaced, they’ll eventually die of irrelevance.

  17. Expat Followersays:
    Wednesday, January 26, 2022 at 10:31 pm
    Vic, this toxic masculinity vibe at the AO this year starting with the “siuuuu” movement and somewhat facilitated by Kyrgios-Kokkinakis… really quite distasteful stuff.

    That it extends so far as harassing staff is really appalling

    The AO organisers this year have really a lot to answer for – not stamping this out, peng shuai tshirt stupidity, novak exemption… time to clear the decks

    Should we move AO to another country to clear the decks?

  18. Maybe put a red kangaroo where the Federation star is….I could live with that. The kangaroo is the symbol of Australia. The Southern Cross the symbol of the Southern Hemisphere (it is on a dozen flags)…the Federation star is meaningless.

  19. highly intelligent question Ven…

    should we all move to Taiwan to clear the decks of this federal government?

    Felix has cracked now i think sadly, Medvedev up a break in the 5th

  20. What the next Federal Labor Government should do is pass legislation to protect the ABC and much more importantly Medicare, assuming that both still exist by that time. Require a plebiscite to privatise or abolish either institution. No plebiscite would have any hope of being passed. Of course a future right wing Government might repeal such a law, but it’s still worth a try.

  21. One of the most recognisable flags in the world is Canada’s.

    Something similar for Australia would involve a sprig of wattle. Maybe not as striking as the maple leaf, but a good, non-controversial choice.

  22. I think we need to learn from the Former NZ PM Keys when he held the referendum over there, the new flag lost narrowly, in 2019 he said:
    John Key would not hold a flag referendum if he could have his time as Prime Minister again.

    Instead, the country’s former leader would simply change New Zealand’s national flag and let the public love it or lump it.

    “I think it’s one of those things that all hell would have broken loose for a couple of months, then we would have worn it, gotten used to it and been proud of it,” he told 66 Magazine’s latest edition.

  23. Poor Cameron,

    That’s a very dictatorial approach. It doesn’t gel with me to impose a national symbol on people without giving them a choice about it.

  24. Steve777 and PoorCameron

    I like that flag design and while it isn’t the Eureka flag it would be a good alternative in that it could be supported by both sides of politics without there being any negatives to Indigenous peoples.

  25. Thats fair enough DB, However the flag would never change if it was put to a referendum/plebiscite just like it failed in NZ.
    We elect our politicians to make decisions for us, and if we don’t like them we always have the option of kicking them out in 3 years time.
    We never got a say when Morrison “tweaked” the national anthem last year, its up for judgement if we need a direct say to “tweak” the flag to remove the union jack off it

  26. Victoria says:
    Wednesday, January 26, 2022 at 9:58 pm

    And interestingly enough my daughter who has been working at the AO this year has experienced what one can say is a prevailing attitude amongst males ranging from say 18 years to 50.
    There is something seriously amiss that we still have this behaviour towards females in particular in 2022.
    It’s shameful and disgraceful.
    This comment is not backed up by any research but i get the sense that we are seeing a widening gap between what i will call the teals and progressives that want action on gender and climate then there is another group of reactionaries fueled by anger about the pandemic and this is why the political climate around this year’s federal election reminds me a bit of the 1996.

  27. ah felix, had so many chances just couldnt make the leap when needed. this could be the making of him though. what a great game of tennis – have to give it to the Med. If he gets thru Tsitsipas and (i assume) Rafa then will be one hell of a worthy winner

  28. What idiot(s) did away with the Australia Day long weekend?
    ADay is the most boring day of the year after Good Friday.
    The rot set in when they took away the traditional Adelaide Test, replacing it with meangless 50 over format matches.


    Three Coalition senators have joined growing calls from the crossbench and Labor to hold a royal commission or similar inquiry into Australia’s Covid pandemic response.

    Nationals Matt Canavan and Sam McMahon and Liberal Gerard Rennick – three of the five Coalition senators who crossed the floor to vote against vaccination mandates – have backed the idea, which also received in-principle support from the Labor leader, Anthony Albanese.

    Last week the independent senator Rex Patrick wrote to the prime minister asking him to consider establishing a commission before he calls the 2022 election and to set aside money for it in the budget. The independent MP Zali Steggall is already working on draft terms of reference.

    Canavan told Guardian Australia “we need a full and comprehensive inquiry but I think that needs to wait until the pandemic is over”.

    Canavan said he was “not fussed” about the form of inquiry “providing it has the appropriate power to take evidence from all levels of government, not just the commonwealth, given how involved the states have been with the coronavirus response”.

    Rennick, who has vowed to continue to withhold support for government legislation over the pandemic response, told Guardian Australia there “definitely needs to be a review into the way everything happened”.

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