Nothing on voting intention, but there’s a bunch of polls around the place, the most useful from my perspective being the first fortnightly Essential Research survey of the year, as it includes the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings. Scott Morrison is at 46% on both approval and disapproval, respectively steady and up two since last month, which is the first time he has failed to record a net positive result since immediately before the onset of the pandemic in March 2020. Anthony Albanese is likewise equal on approval and disapproval, in his case at 39%, with approval down one and disapproval up three. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is at 42-34, in from 42-31 last month and likewise his weakest result since March 2020.
There’s more bad news for Morrison on COVID-19 management, with the federal government recording a net negative result for the first time, its positive rating down six to 35% and negative up six to 38%. There has also been a sharp decline in the positive ratings for every state government except Victoria, most noticeably in the case of Western Australia, where the positive rating is down twelve to a new low of 66%. This remains nineteen points higher than nearest rival Victoria, up four points to 47%. New South Wales is down seventeen to 37%, now the lowest of the five, with Queensland down eleven to 46% and South Australia down fourteen to 43%. The results for the smaller states especially should, as always, be treated with caution here, but the near-uniformity of the sharp downward turn is impressive.
Respondents were also asked if various matters related to COVID-19 were likely to influence their chances of voting Coalition, an exercise I’m dubious about since it’s clear that many party loyalists respond without regard to the fact that their vote choice isn’t in doubt. For what it’s worth, 37% rated themselves less likely on account of Scott Morrison’s recent performance and 19% more likely; 30% and 15% ditto because of recent case numbers; 38% and 12% because of the shortage of rapid antigen tests (note the perversity of being more likely to vote Coalition on this basis); 22% and 19% because of reduced border restrictions; and, in the one net positive result, 23% and 27% for the Novak Djokovic affair.
The poll also finds 37% believe the choices of those who wish not to be vaccinated should be respected versus 63% who don’t, of whom 41% consider the unvaccinated ill-informed and 22% selfish. It was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1062.
Various other polling around the place:
• A poll by Painted Dog Research for The West Australian recorded a 71-29 split in favour of the McGowan government’s indefinite postponement of the reopening of the state’s border. Respondents were also offered a poorly framed question as to whether they “agree the McGowan government could have done more to prepare to open up on February 5”, to which 51% agreed and 29% at least purported to disagree, notwithstanding the obvious absurdity of such a position. The poll had a sample of 637 Western Australian respondents; no field work date was provided, though obviously it was done after Thursday’s announcement.
• YouGov has conducted a poll for the News Corp tabloids that covers an extensive range of issues, but not voting intention, results for which are seemingly being published bit by bit (the full questionnaire is here). There have been two reports from this that I’m aware of, one dealing with state government COVID-19 management. Thirty-five per cent of New South Wales respondents rated their government’s performance positively, 28% neutrally and 34% negatively; Victorians, 42%, 21% and 36%; Queenslanders, 61%, 20% and 19%; Western Australians, 85% positively, 6% neutrally and 8% negatively; South Australians, 48%, 29% and 21%; and Tasmanians, 65%, 21% and 11%. Another report related results on election issue salience, in which respondents were asked to pick two issues out of eight, with 58% choosing cost of living, ahead of 37% for health care, 34% for the economy and 32% for climate change. The poll was conducted December 27 to January 10 from an overall sample of 2297, with state sub-samples ranging from 257 in Tasmania to 507 in New South Wales.
• The Conversation reports on a Deakin Contemporary History Survey of “a representative, random sample of more than 5,000 Australians” finding that 60% overall believe the current date of Australia Day should be maintained, but with a clear age effect in which 53% of those born 1986 or later felt otherwise, with 46% favouring no change.
• According to an AAP report, a CoreData survey of 1292 respondents finds more than 80% of those under 26 and more than 70% of those aged 27 to 41 “support moving the date for the sake of improving relations with the Indigenous population” – a formulation that presumably elicits a more favourable response – which plummeted to “just over 30%” among the 56 to 75 cohort and 25% of those over 75. All that’s revealed of those of in the middle is that “the majority still supported keeping the holiday on its current date”.
• A Roy Morgan SMS poll of 1372 respondents posed the not-all-that-useful-to-my-mind question as to whether as to whether January 26 should be identified as Australia Day or Invasion Day, breaking 65-35 in favour of the former. Cross-tabs here if you’re interested.
At LAST they have woken up to the disgraceful flake.
Re Dr Dolittle a 8.32pm
The assessment that glyphosate is a probable carcinogen is a “hazard analysis” and is based on subjecting test animals to levels of exposure generally way in excess of what would be the operational dose use level for a chemical.
The next step is to conduct a “safety analysis” which develops an operational dose that balances the effectiveness and safety of the chemical under assessment.
Oestrogen (a key component of birth control pills) is a classified as a KNOWN carcinogen (by the International Agency for Research on Cancer of the World Health Organization).
zoomster @ #1839 Sunday, January 30th, 2022 – 9:41 pm
I have a great mate who had 4,000 acrres in feral goat territory. He culled the coloured goats but left the white ones. He is the only farmer in the area that can access his creek (6 kilometres) and River (14 kilometres). He will however cull the white ones in times of drought. The goats actually prefer thistles etc to grass. Over 70 years it has worked out very well for him.
Brand Morrison is definitely toxic, no need to change, just keep up the photo ops
zoomster says:
Sunday, January 30, 2022 at 9:41 pm
frednk
As I regard goats as one of the great environmental pests, I won’t have one on the property.
Well, it is your choice, good fences, goats and you end up with clover rich pasture, no blackberries, no gorse and frogs. I’ll take the goats and give the glyphosate away. Oh and by the way the price for farmed goats is a lot better than for sheep and a hell of a lot easier to manage ( we have both).
Tom, cashmere, mohair or meat.
zoomster,
Exactly! I’m not here to praise a US multinational that indulges in dubious business practices, but they do sell a good product and the so-called deleterious health effects are overstated in this humble peasant’s opinion. I do wear a spray mask, but my agister is more than happy that I spray glyphosate on the grass that his cows munch on. So it’s already in the food chain! That’s not exactly a ‘let-it-rip’ attitude, more an admission that we have lived with glyphosate for a generation or more. Is it the cause of male infertility, testicular shrinkage or manboob growth? I dunno. Leave it to the sexperts. My ‘reproduction’ days are long gone. Anyway 56:44! Go Albo.
zoomster,
Exactly! I’m not here to praise a US multinational that indulges in dubious business practices, but they do sell a good product and the so-called deleterious health effects are overstated in this humble peasant’s opinion. I do wear a spray mask, but my agister is more than happy that I spray glyphosate on the grass that his cows munch on. So it’s already in the food chain! That’s not exactly a ‘let-it-rip’ attitude, more an admission that we have lived with glyphosate for a generation or more. Is it the cause of male infertility, testicular shrinkage or manboob growth? I dunno. Leave it to the sexperts. My ‘reproduction’ days are long gone. Anyway 56:44! Go Albo.
Ven says:
Sunday, January 30, 2022 at 8:20 pm
Canadian PM, Family Moved To Secret Location Amid Protests: Reports.
beguiled
This is ridiculous for a PM, who just won an election.
———————————————————————
My very second-hand information is that one of the Trudeau children tested positive a few days ago and Trudeau decided to go into isolation at his temporary residence, Rideau Cottage, which is a house within the grounds of the Governor-General’s residence Rideau Hall.
(The Prime Minister’s official residence across the street at 24 Sussex Drive has been under interminable refurbishment for several years) (My wife when a young girl used to go to the Cottage to play with the children of the Governor-General’s Private Secretary (CEO) who normally occupies the Cottage).
Then there were fears that the vaccination protesters might use drones to overfly Rideau Cottage.
I suspect the Prime Minister’s security detail thought it prudent to remove the Trudeau family until those crazies leave town. They might have taken them to the Prime Minister’s summer cottage at Harrington Lake in Quebec, about a 30-minute drive across the Ottawa River in Gatineau National Park.
There may have been a few thousands of these anti-vaccers, mainly truckers opposed to a vaccination mandate when crossing the U.S. border, but as in other countries they are a small minority. Fortunately the weather is not on their side:
The overnight low is 26 below zero Celsius, with a wind chill of minus 34.
Not exactly good weather for an outdoor protest.
The king’s almost dead; long live the king – the Russkie in three.
”
sprocket_says:
Sunday, January 30, 2022 at 6:36 pm
The sub-plot is the factional battle in NSW between Kean’s Moderates and Morrison – who wants to put his stooges into the seats and dud the rank and file, let alone the deal Kean has with Perrotet’s Religious Right to share spoils.
So Kean has no qualms in smacking ScoMo’s backside… but will it wipe the smirk off his face?
The NSW Treasurer has slammed Scott Morrison for being ‘nowhere to be found’ as a $1billion financial support package is announced for struggling businesses hard-hit by the latest Omicron outbreak.
Matt Kean criticised the prime minister for refusing to ‘step up’ as the new variant impacted the lives of millions during a Covid press conference on Sunday.
‘I’m very disappointed, I was hoping to make this announcement today standing beside the prime minister and treasurer Frydenberg but they’re not to be found,’ the treasurer told reporters.
‘These are not just NSW businesses, they’re Australian businesses, businesses that pay their taxes to the Commonwealth government, businesses that are doing it so tough at this time.
‘What we want to see, is rather than the Commonwealth government stepping aside, we want to see the government stepping in, like the NSW government is doing to support small businesses and in doing so supporting our national economy.
‘I hope the Commonwealth government steps up to help NSW small businesses and small businesses across the country, because it’s in our national economic interest.’
The extraordinary attack – from a member of Morrison’s own party – came as it was announced NSW small businesses would be reimbursed for losses over summer.
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/nsw-treasurer-blasts-scott-morrison-for-refusing-to-step-up/ar-AAThG9x?ocid=st
”
You would think ” The extraordinary attack” is from a Labor government Treasurer. 🙂
McEnroe is, by a country mile, the best technical commentator of tennis, yet we get Courier – sigh!
”
Scepticsays:
Sunday, January 30, 2022 at 6:37 pm
David Rowe… why the “Hot” Leppington Triangles reference?
Prime Minister Scott Morrison has expressed his disappointment with a deal that saw taxpayers hand over $33 million for a piece of land near the western Sydney airport later valued at just $3 million.
The Auditor-General last week found Infrastructure Department officers acted unethically in setting up the 2018 deal and concealed information from their superiors and minister, including that the Commonwealth would be paying 22 times more per hectare than the NSW government paid for its portion of the same land.
”
It could be because Matt Kean attacked Morrison.
Nath
The Victorian government was running an investigation into glysophate exposure before the covid shit hit the fan. Perhaps you could spend some time lobbying them to get on with it. I wouldn’t mind some compensation for the shit loads of it that I was exposed to with zero ppe 30 years ago.
”
citizensays:
Sunday, January 30, 2022 at 7:21 pm
Morrison’s next photo opportunity – is he game?
”
You probably noticed there are 5 participants. 2 outside the fence, one sitting on a platform outside the gate, 1 leaning against the gate inside the arena, 1 riding the Bull. I am not sure will ride the Bull or lean against the gate. 🙂
I certainly will not do those 2 things.
”
davidwhsays:
Sunday, January 30, 2022 at 7:59 pm
The pay for RAT has a price sticker on its tail.
”
LOL DW
nath @ #1791 Sunday, January 30th, 2022 – 6:13 pm
And you had your first drink at 18? 😆
”
nathsays:
Sunday, January 30, 2022 at 9:13 pm
We have no idea of the effects of Glysophate on current generations of children who have been constantly exposed to it from birth in their foods. Decades from now the full impact will be known.
At 18 they can drink alcohol. Fortunately they are not being dosed with it every day from birth.
”
Seriously though nath
Why are you trying to die on Organic food hill as sprocket pointed earlier?
”
C@tmommasays:
Sunday, January 30, 2022 at 9:25 pm
Rossmcg @ #1787 Sunday, January 30th, 2022 – 8:58 pm
Now he’s “saved koalas” and “saved the reef” perhaps Morrison could do something for little penguins
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-30/time-running-out-for-rockingham-s-little-penguins/100786312?utm_campaign=abc_news_web&utm_content=link&utm_medium=content_shared&utm_source=abc_news_web
Rising sea temperatures might have to be addressed though
Howard tried to save the Orangutans. He still lost.
”
Nostradumass
If you want a sign there you go. 🙂
”
frednksays:
Sunday, January 30, 2022 at 9:33 pm
Firefox
So are the Greens not going to oppose Labors High speed rail plan because they have chosen a practical starting point, Newcastle and Sydney, and not a pie in the sky proposal that has no hope of getting up, Melbourne to Sydney
”
But Bandt lives in Melbourne. So they will oppose, Newcastle- Sydney route. 🙂
”
sprocket_says:
Sunday, January 30, 2022 at 9:34 pm
#Newspoll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 44 (-3) ALP 56 (+3) #auspol
”
Still not as bad as what Howard government got in September 2007, when it was 58-42 to ALP and when Howard was tapped on Shoulder to which he implied GFY.
”
Ashasays:
Sunday, January 30, 2022 at 9:35 pm
Welp. Looks like it’s going to be a May election.
GhostWhoVotes
@GhostWhoVotes
·
1m
#Newspoll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 44 (-3) ALP 56 (+3) #auspol
”
More likely September. 🙂
”
sprocket_says:
Sunday, January 30, 2022 at 9:36 pm
”
Seriously though 16% are still unsure. Baffling to put it mildly.
”
Boerwarsays:
Sunday, January 30, 2022 at 9:38 pm
Memo to the PM: feed MORE crocodiles
”
I saw a photo on PB recently where the man was swimming with crocs.
What I’d like to know: why didn’t my neurologist not tell me about the therapeutics of pickle juice?
Nadal in 5.
I’m not sure I even understand that question about McGowan doing more to prepare for Feb 5? It’s a loaded question in any case, assuming support for reopening the borders. The 71% support for keeping them closed doesn’t surprise me, nor the support for his handling overall, but dropping because the Omicron outbreak hasn’t been contained. I would like to see poll options which ask about support for keeping the borders closed permanently to anywhere that has Covid spread, rather than just support for delaying the reopening – because delaying still assumes support for reopening at some point. We’ve been getting loaded poll questions for months now about the reopening, starting with the ones asking about what vaccine rate reopening should be tied to with no option to keep the borders closed irrespective of vaccination rate. My guess from what I’m hearing here in WA is that there is still support to just keep the borders closed and only do travel bubbles with places that are Covid-free (when we get back to zero anyway).
Mavis,
Because you are a pickle?
PVO claiming he has another major polling coup for tomorrow.