Resolve Strategic: Labor 41, Coalition 31, Greens 11 in Victoria

A new poll finds Labor in Victoria steaming to another commanding victory, albeit that it mixes signals from November and last week.

The Age has published the latest state voting intention result for Victoria, which as usual combines results for the latest poll and the previous, a little awkwardly in this case since there was no monthly poll in December. It’s a strong result for the Andrews government, with Labor up three on the primary vote to 41%, the Coalition down three to 31% and the Greens up one to 11%. Resolve Strategic does not publish two-party results, but based on a typical preference flow this would come out at around 56.5-43.5 to Labor, a swing of barely 1% compared with Labor’s landslide win of 2018. Daniel Andrews’ lead over Matthew Guy as preferred premier has widened from 45-32 to 47-30.

The poll also features some incomplete detail on the various leaders’ handling of pandemic management. I’m unclear if this combines the results of multiple polls, but I believe the question was posed for Scott Morrison and the premiers of the three largest states and not limited to respondents from the relevant jurisdictions. Unfortunately, the report does not provide the negative result on this occasion, which makes it hard to say exactly how bad the positive results are for Dominic Perrottet in particular, who as a newcomer presumably has a high undecided rating. For what it’s worth, Daniel Andrews had a positive rating of 46%, down from 57% in August; Annastacia Palaszczuk had 45%, down from 51%; Scott Morrison had 35%, down from 38%; and Dominic Perrottet had 31%, which compares with Gladys Berejiklian’s 26%.

The Victorian results come from a sample of 1039 combined from polling in November and January, the latter of which was conducted Tuesday to Sunday.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

12 comments on “Resolve Strategic: Labor 41, Coalition 31, Greens 11 in Victoria”

  1. Wait, so those leader ratings… are those from a poll of the whole country, or of the relevant states, or just Victoria?

    I have to say that I don’t really see the point of polling people’s opinions on the premiers of states they don’t live in, especially if the results are then combined with those from respondents living in that state.

  2. I drove down Power Street Hawthorn the other day past Tim Smith’s drunkard parking spot. The house has still not been fixed but on the plywood covering the damage someone has written “Chappaquiddick” (although I suspect it is misspelled). There must be some smart wits in the inner east.

  3. Wait, so those leader ratingsā€¦ are those from a poll of the whole country, or of the relevant states, or just Victoria?

    Based on the report the last time they conducted this exercise in August, it’s pretty clear that they ask the entire country about each Premier. Note how the report breaks out a Queensland-only result for Palaszczuk that’s a lot more favourable than her national numbers.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/voters-back-labor-premiers-over-berejiklian-and-pm-on-outbreak-response-20210826-p58ma0.html?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1630011499-1

  4. Premier Mark McGowan announces delay to WA border opening amid fears Omicron will ‘cripple’ state

    McGowan has a very deft political touch.

    The planned reopening of Western Australia’s border to the rest of the country on February 5 will be delayed indefinitely, Premier Mark McGowan has announced.

    Mr McGowan called a late night press conference to announce the delay, which he said was due to the changing health risks posed by the Omicron COVID-19 variant.

    He said a new date would be considered over the next month.

    Some travel conditions were still set to change on February 5 including expanding the list of people exempt from the hard border, with a focus on those travelling into WA for compassionate reasons.

    But those people will still be required to isolate for 14 days.

    Mr McGowan said the former opening plan had been based on the previous Delta variant.

    “Unfortunately, the world changed in December, Omicron arrived,” he said.

    “Omicron is a whole new ball game.”

    “We can’t just shut our eyes and hope that it is different.”

    The Premier said there was insufficient information available on what the full impact of Omicron could be.

    “Except that we know because of case numbers it is a very bad situation,” he said.

    But Mr McGowan said it had become clear that a third dose of the COVID-19 vaccine was important to deal with Omicron.

    Exemptions to be expanded

    Approved travellers permitted to enter WA under the new expanded exemption from February 5 will include:

    Returning West Australians with strong recent connections with WA
    Returning West Australians with family connections in WA
    Compassionate grounds including funerals and palliative care or terminally ill visitation
    People entering for urgent or essential medical treatment
    People entering WA for national or state security reasons
    People with specialist skills
    Commonwealth and state officials, members of parliament, and diplomats
    Other extraordinary circumstances approved by the Chief Health Officer or Police Commissioner

  5. Man. Omicron really is a convenient catch-all excuse for pretty much everything this year regardless of your political persuasion, isn’t it.

    “Sorry mum, forgot your birthday. Omicron!”

    Can’t wait for Pi and Rho, CCOVID really is the gift that keeps on giving.

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