Morgan: 56-44 to Labor

A second pollster emerges to suggest the summer break has done little to improve the situation for the Morrison government.

Roy Morgan has become the second pollster to emerge from the summer break, maintaining its recent form in crediting Labor with a 56-44 two-party lead, out from 55.5-44.5 in the previous poll. As before, this is souped up by a much stronger flow of respondent-allocated preferences than Labor managed at the 2019 election. Both the Coalition and Labor are steady on the primary vote, at 34.5% and 37% respectively, with the Greens up half a point to 12% (strong support for the Greens being another feature of the Morgan series). One Nation is down a point to 3% and Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party is steady on all of half of a point, whereas it managed 3.4% in 2019.

The “previous poll” used for the basis of comparison here wasn’t actually published at the time, as noted by a keen-eyed observer on Twitter. Morgan’s last published poll from last year was from the last weekend in November and the first weekend in December, whereas the results tables on the website include a further result for the two weeks subsequently.

The state two-party breakdowns credit Labor with leads of 58-42 in New South Wales, a swing of around 10%; 59-41 in Victoria, a swing of around 6%; 51-49 in Western Australia, a swing of around 6.5%; 60.5-39.5 in South Australia, a swing of around 10%; and 60.5-39.5 in Tasmania, a swing of around 4.5%. However, the poll has the Coalition ahead 51.5-48.5 in Queensland, which is still a swing to Labor of around 7%. Whereas Morgan’s past polling combined results from two weekends, here we are told that polling was conducted between January 4 and 16.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,089 comments on “Morgan: 56-44 to Labor”

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  1. Jack Waterford is A grade. He writes thoughtfully, freely and uncomfortably.

    His point that his thing is not yet won, while not earth shattering, is expressed originally as a dilemma for Mr Albanese between showing too much and showing too little.

    I don’t agree but I read it with interest.

  2. Thanks C@t

    Unfortunatley, after trying to update my Bypass Paywalls Clean extension, I did my cruet and deleted all the unused chrome extensions, inclding C+

  3. ‘RP says:
    Wednesday, January 26, 2022 at 7:44 pm

    Dr Fumbles

    The boxing kangaroo goes back at least to 1941 and 21sqn in Singapore at the time, was painted on the sides of their Wirraways….’
    ———————–
    And so to the slaughter…

  4. One of the MCs at the Sydney Opera House introducing a star-studded cast “In fact I’m the only one I’ve never heard of”. I’ll pay that.

  5. It pisses me off when Australian public figures don’t acknowledge country when they speak. It’s such a simple thing to do but many public figures seem to make a point of deliberately not doing so. The ABC has been much better on this in recent times and Dylan Alcott opened his acceptance of the AotY with an acknowledgement. It’s not being woke, it’s being respectful of a 60,000 yr culture.

  6. On kangaroos and aeroplanes…

    My cousin’s former husband was in the RAAF in Vietnam for a while.

    Of course, there was significant overlap/cooperation with the US Air Force.

    The fact that USAF personnel would wake up from time to time and discover kangaroos painted on their planes may not have assisted the cooperation!

  7. One of the things about colonialists is that they make the rules and then enforce the rules up to, and including, the pain of death.
    This leaves those colonized with two immediate choices.
    Obey the rules and break themselves.
    Break the rules and get broken.
    There are always plenty of sick puppies around who are prepared to run the lines to make it all appear right and proper and god-ordained.

  8. Steve777:

    It’s a great atmosphere here. I’m across the water from the concert, but can still hear it all thanks to the speakers dotted about.

  9. “The Australian flag needs to be changed when we become a republic.”

    Agreed. Australian Republic Movement took changing the Australian flag off their platform in 1994. It was decided it was in the too hard basket. It could impede Australia’s chances of becoming a republic. The republic must come first.

  10. Bludging: “The exception is 1983. Hawke won at the low-point in a steep contraction. Howard and Fraser did their best to buy their way out defeat, but failed. However, in general, Labor has done best when the economy has been going well.”

    Hawke was able to run a very convincing and reassuring line to the voters that he would be able to keep a lid on union-led wage increases and their potential inflationary impacts. That was something unique to him: Albo would have no more ability to run this argument than he would be able to represent himself as a “fiscal conservative.”

    “For some reason, voters think the reactionaries are less likely than Labor to fuck up the economy. There is no serious foundation for this belief.”

    By the early 1990s, Federal Labor had been able to establish itself as the more trusted economic manager. Then Keating blew it by losing what should have been an unloseable election in 1996 through a combination of hubris, disengagement (partly the result of his marriage problems at the time) and policy inertia, before switching far too late to a Fraser-like spend-a-thon which proved futile. And then Beazley failed to put up a fight when Howard proceeded to trash Labor’s economic record.

    As I’ve posted before, if the geniuses of the NSW Right and the other opportunists who worked together in 1991 to tear down Australia’s greatest-ever Prime Minister could somehow have been stopped, Hawke would have reigned on into the 2000s and seen off Howard before handing over to Beazley (who was a so-so opposition leader, but who would have been an awesome PM), it’s actually hard to imagine who would have been able to lead the Libs out of the wilderness.

    A great lost opportunity IMO.

  11. ‘Rossmore says:
    Wednesday, January 26, 2022 at 7:59 pm

    It pisses me off when Australian public figures don’t acknowledge country when they speak. It’s such a simple thing to do but many public figures seem to make a point of deliberately not doing so. The ABC has been much better on this in recent times and Dylan Alcott opened his acceptance of the AotY with an acknowledgement. It’s not being woke, it’s being respectful of a 60,000 yr culture.’
    ———————
    Yep. Respect.

  12. If we must have a flag thing, why not leap into the future?

    We could have a flag that is a screen not a bit of tawdry cloth cobbled together by prisoners in Xinjiang in between having their organs harvested.

    What is represented on the screen could be driven by randomizers or by algorithms that are voted on electronically on a daily basis.

    The flag could be the living representation of the randomness of life or it could reflect the wishes of the majority du jour.

  13. It would be ironic if Morrison turned out to be a super spreader with all his close up and personal maskless interactions with people last night and today. I’m fairly sure our daughter wouldn’t allow her 8 month old anywhere near the fellow.

  14. mb
    I recently had a go at reading ‘The Red Chief’ and found it to be such a comprehensive concatenation of claptrap that I could not make myself persist. Yet we could probably hold the view that at the time it was ‘sympathetic’.

  15. I believe I could come at a flag that had nothing on it but, say, a beige ground representing nothing. I would support making flags a maximum size to save on the flag pole, rope and cloth resources.
    Say about 2cm by 2cm.

  16. BW: “I recently had a go at reading ‘The Red Chief’ and found it to be such a comprehensive concatenation of claptrap that I could not make myself persist. Yet we could probably hold the view that at the time it was ‘sympathetic’.”

    I was able to buy a first edition copy which I read and found rather entertaining. Idriess was trying his best by the standards of the time to be sympathetic and culturally-aware, and he made a pretty strong statement against the past practice of digging up and stealing Indigenous remains by supposed scientific researchers.

    I think he can be strongly criticised for representing the marriage and sexual practices of the pre-colonial Kamilaroi in a sensationalised and highly salacious way – including pictures of naked Aboriginal women – which no doubt helped to boost his sales back in the prudish 1950s, when many books were banned, including Ulysses, Brave New World, Fanny Hill and some of the works of our own Norman Lindsay.

  17. Boerwar
    “And so to the slaughter ”

    Yep at Sungei Patani with Buffaloes, little flak and no early warning when they were bombed a few hours before Pearl Harbour. One of my grandfathers was a fitter armourer with them. One of the lucky ones that ended up getting home.

  18. Meher “if the geniuses of the NSW Right and the other opportunists who worked together in 1991 to tear down Australia’s greatest-ever Prime Minister could somehow have been stopped, Hawke would have reigned on into the 2000s and seen off Howard before handing over to Beazley (who was a so-so opposition leader, but who would have been an awesome PM), it’s actually hard to imagine who would have been able to lead the Libs out of the wilderness”

    well you certainly have a conviction on this, but this is utter wishful revisionism. If Hawke was such a dead cert to see off Hewson then he wouldnt have been replaced. The “unloseable election of 1996” is also a massive stretch… yes it was a poor term with baseball bats mostly locked in after Dawkins first budget (which created a lot of the foundations for the economic strength that ensued) – but you discount any kind of “its time” to a 13 year old government? Sheesh, this current one is 9 years and that is arguably the single biggest reason to think ALP will win this time

    ALP longer term interests would have debatably been better served if Keating had narrowly lost to Hewson in 1993, or better still Peacock had won a tiny majority in 1990. And i wont even touch 2010!

  19. citizen @ #3018 Wednesday, January 26th, 2022 – 7:19 pm

    Howls of RW outrage when Morrison is snubbed. How about the NZ PM?

    New Zealand’s prime minister Jacinda Ardern has said “at no point was I worried about my safety” after her van was chased and forced on to a curb by anti-vaccination protesters.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/26/jacinda-ardern-shrugs-off-car-chase-by-anti-vaccination-protesters

    A similar thing happened in Texas with a Biden campaign bus and a mob of addled Trump supporters. Nobody cared.

    The culture warriors are very selective about what slights outrage them. Recklessness and intimidation bordering on violence is okay, but you’d damn well better smile when the PM wants you to smile.

  20. ‘RP says:
    Wednesday, January 26, 2022 at 8:36 pm

    Boerwar
    “And so to the slaughter ”

    Yep at Sungei Patani with Buffaloes, little flak and no early warning when they were bombed a few hours before Pearl Harbour. One of my grandfathers was a fitter armourer with them. One of the lucky ones that ended up getting home.’
    ———————————
    Indeed.

  21. Boerwarsays:
    Wednesday, January 26, 2022 at 7:56 pm
    mb
    I have seen first hand the terror that the Walpiri were capable of inspiring. This was half a century ago

    Inspiring, bullshit. Terror yes, but violence does that.

  22. Expat Follower: ” If Hawke was such a dead cert to see off Hewson then he wouldnt have been replaced.”

    Hawke was forced to accede to the so-called Kirribilli Agreement in 1988, long before Hewson became leader of the Libs.

    It wasn’t about who was best placed to lead Labor to an election victory, it was all about the ambition of Keating and, in particular, Richardson and the others who backed him.

    Hawke’s leadership was a mess by the end of 1991, but this was after six months of concerted pressure from the Keating side. If he’d just been allowed to keep doing what he’d been doing for eight years, Hawke would have seen off Hewson in 1993 without any difficulty.

  23. Although platitudinous, the GG’s speech today included a nice example of him spa-boxing with a Koori youth, but that’s as good as it got. Granted, he’s encumbered by convention not to enter the political fray, but someone has to! It won’t come from
    the likes of Howard, Abbott, Morrison. That said, it was pleasing to note that many Australians seem to have come to the conclusion that today’s celebration is not shared by them.

    ______________________________________

    Out & about today on the Goldie today, incidences of jingoism
    were not observed – could’ve been the weather?

    _____________________________________

    Re. the AO, go young Felix!

  24. meher baba says:

    It wasn’t about who was best placed to lead Labor to an election victory, it was all about the ambition of Keating and, in particular, Richardson and the others who backed him.
    _______
    I couldn’t disagree more. I think it was all about who was best to tackle Hewson. Hawke by this stage was not up to the job and renewal was fully justified. Ironically, it was the Left who were the last to stand with Hawke, and another irony was that Keating implemented the Left agenda far more than Hawke was willing or able to.

  25. Meher, “Hawke would have seen off Hewson in 1993 without any difficulty”… i recall Hawke alleging this in his autobiography as well (plus handing off to Beazley prior to 1996), but this is easy stuff to say. Much conventional wisdom that Howard would have won comfortably in 1990 but for Peacock’s coup… the scorn you would pour on that is exactly what you invite in turn

    You seem to be reciting chapter and verse from the Hawke side of the Labor in Power narrative… its a point of view, not the victor’s one, and certainly far from anything resembling fact!

  26. Oh goodie: in a break from Rudd-Gillard-Rudd we welcome that golden oldie: Hawke-Keating!

    Wake me up when we finally get to my favourite bit of historical revisionism: Marius-Sulla.

  27. Andrew_Earlwood
    “Wake me up when we finally get to my favourite bit of historical revisionism: Marius-Sulla.”

    And don’t get me started on Caesar-Pompey. In my opinion, if Pompey had defeated Caesar in 48 BC at Pharsalus, Pompey’s version of autocracy might have spared the Roman state further civil wars. Pompey was far more palatable to conservative Senators than Caesar. Plus, many of Pompey’s policies were adopted by Augustus Caesar when he eventually became supreme leader.

  28. https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/auditor-general-signs-off-on-nsw-accounts-after-concerns-with-controversial-40b-rail-entity-20220121-p59qa1.html#comments

    Ms Crawford last year delayed the audit, citing “significant accounting issues” with TAHE, recently the subject of a parliamentary inquiry and two separate probes by the Auditor-General.

    The cover-up of a ‘financial mirage’ that has inflated the NSW budget and may put rail safety at risk
    “We are not in a position to sign the audit,” Ms Crawford said in November. “The matters are very complex and there are a lot of discussions going on around these matters.“

    At the centre of the Auditor-General’s concerns was whether TAHE would ever earn a real profit as well as the writedown of the assets. Under accounting rules, TAHE has to show it is truly independent and will turn a profit.

    The state government in December was forced to inject an extra $1.1 billion over the next three years into the state’s rail operators to help fund a massive rise in access fees, in an attempt to get the Auditor-General to sign off on NSW’s finances.

  29. Before we get back to Sulla we’ve got Hawke vs Hayden, Whitlam vs Calwall. On the Dark Side Turnbull-Abbott, Howard-Costello, Howard-Peacock, Fraser-Sneddon…

    Then we have the Jacobites, the War of Spanish Succession, the Wars of the Roses…

  30. “ In my opinion, if Pompey had defeated Caesar in 48 BC at Pharsalus, Pompey’s version of autocracy might have spared the Roman state further civil wars.”

    Pompey was not a natural Optimate (despite being one of Sulla’s Lieutenants. So was Crassus).

    Well before Pharsalus – before the civil war in fact – Pompey had been utterly compromised when he accepted the Boni’s unconstitutional deal to become a single Consul. In truth he had no ‘version’ of autocracy: he’d been manipulated against his best interests against his natural ally. He was a political dupe by 48. His command tent was divided as a consequence. IF he won Pharsalus, he would have been showered with glory (and above all he loved public adulation and glory) and then soon ‘managed out’ by the Boni who would have continued on with their blinkered downward spiral. Pharsalus – no matter who won, was merely prelude for what happened next.

  31. Zerlo have you noticed how few replies you get to your comments. It is akin to talking to yourself. There must be a loon conspiracy theorist type group out there who may take your comments seriously.

  32. Another hot day in Melbourne town.

    Quite a bit of rain about tonight.
    Been a month without any rain in my part of the world.
    Would like some to fall my way. Fingers crossed.

    And hopefully in not the too distant future, we as a country could choose a less offensive date to celebrate this nation

    Surely it’s not too much to ask.

  33. Huge crowds in Sydney today at Circular Quay and the invasion day protest. Tonight the crowd swelled around 8pm when people came in to watch the fireworks.

    There’ll be a Covid surge for sure after this.

  34. And interestingly enough my daughter who has been working at the AO this year has experienced what one can say is a prevailing attitude amongst males ranging from say 18 years to 50.
    There is something seriously amiss that we still have this behaviour towards females in particular in 2022.
    It’s shameful and disgraceful.

  35. The Age 26/01
    The climate activist who claimed Josh Frydenberg was a Hungarian citizen in an attempt to unseat the Treasurer from Federal Parliament is facing bankruptcy proceedings because of the costs of his failed legal case against the MP.
    _____________________
    Has no one to blame but himself.

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