Morgan: 56-44 to Labor

A second pollster emerges to suggest the summer break has done little to improve the situation for the Morrison government.

Roy Morgan has become the second pollster to emerge from the summer break, maintaining its recent form in crediting Labor with a 56-44 two-party lead, out from 55.5-44.5 in the previous poll. As before, this is souped up by a much stronger flow of respondent-allocated preferences than Labor managed at the 2019 election. Both the Coalition and Labor are steady on the primary vote, at 34.5% and 37% respectively, with the Greens up half a point to 12% (strong support for the Greens being another feature of the Morgan series). One Nation is down a point to 3% and Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party is steady on all of half of a point, whereas it managed 3.4% in 2019.

The “previous poll” used for the basis of comparison here wasn’t actually published at the time, as noted by a keen-eyed observer on Twitter. Morgan’s last published poll from last year was from the last weekend in November and the first weekend in December, whereas the results tables on the website include a further result for the two weeks subsequently.

The state two-party breakdowns credit Labor with leads of 58-42 in New South Wales, a swing of around 10%; 59-41 in Victoria, a swing of around 6%; 51-49 in Western Australia, a swing of around 6.5%; 60.5-39.5 in South Australia, a swing of around 10%; and 60.5-39.5 in Tasmania, a swing of around 4.5%. However, the poll has the Coalition ahead 51.5-48.5 in Queensland, which is still a swing to Labor of around 7%. Whereas Morgan’s past polling combined results from two weekends, here we are told that polling was conducted between January 4 and 16.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,089 comments on “Morgan: 56-44 to Labor”

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  1. Just FYI another bungle at BF:

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/human-rights-commission-investigates-granting-of-visa-to-katie-hopkins-20220118-p59p6v.html

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/human-rights-commission-investigates-granting-of-visa-to-katie-hopkins-20220118-p59p6v.html
    The decision to grant a visa to British far-right commentator Katie Hopkins last year is under investigation by the Australian Human Rights Commission following a complaint by a Muslim advocacy group.

    Hopkins, 46, was granted a visa to appear on a reality TV show – reportedly Channel Seven’s Big Brother VIP – and arrived in Sydney in July while the city was in lockdown and thousands of Australians were unable to return home from overseas due to tight border restrictions.

  2. BNO Newsroom
    @BNODesk
    ·
    1h
    Austria’s parliament approves bill making COVID-19 vaccination mandatory from February 1

    BNO Newsroom
    @BNODesk
    ·
    52m
    French law requiring COVID-19 vaccination to enter public venues like restaurants, cafes, cinemas, and long-distance trains takes effect on Monday, prime minister says

  3. Labor leader Anthony Albanese has gained an edge over Prime Minister Scott Morrison on climate change policy ahead of the next election, with 37 per cent of voters backing the Labor target to cut carbon emissions while 22 per cent prefer the government goal.

    The Labor target also has stronger support on the policy in the most crucial federal electorates, with 41 per cent of voters in marginal seats backing the more ambitious cuts to greenhouse gas emission compared to 21 per cent who prefer the government stance.

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/labor-has-climate-policy-edge-over-coalition-solid-support-for-greens-20220120-p59pyc.html

  4. Thanks William. I’m curious as to how Bludgertrack deals with the Morgan respondent allocated preferences issue. Do you plug the numbers in to the mix as is, do some sort of adjustment in the process of plugging them in, to bring them closer to 2019 preference allocations, or something else?

    I’d imagine that the 13% support for “others” would introduce a fair bit of uncertainty as to the 2PP because the allocation of preferences from that group would be a sizeable input. Given that we don’t know much about this group (except that it excludes respondents who have identified as One Nation and UAP) I’d think it would be hard to know whether using 2019 preference allocations is likely to hit the mark or not. I guess that’s an issue for all the pollsters though at the moment. To the extent that they use or ask for respondent allocation of preferences, it would be interesting to know if they’re coming up with similar numbers.

  5. https://www.thedailybeast.com/oan-host-dan-ball-begs-viewers-to-dig-up-dirt-on-atandt-chair-after-directv-drops-network

    After DirecTV dropped far-right channel One America News, one of the fact-free network’s hosts urged his viewers to dig up “dirt” on the chairman of AT&T, the parent company of the satellite TV provider.

    “Whatever it is,” OAN host Dan Ball pleaded on Monday evening, listing hypothetical scandals like extramarital affairs or anti-white racism.

    DirecTV announced on Sunday that following a “routine internal review” it had decided not to renew its contract with Herring Networks, the owner of One America News. Aside from OAN, DirecTV also plans to drop the conservative channel’s sister network, a luxury-focused lifestyle channel titled A Wealth of Entertainment.

    As the majority owner of DirecTV, AT&T faced increased calls to drop OAN as the little-watched channel actively courted controversy and pushed unhinged right-wing conspiracies. In fact, OAN is currently fighting billion-dollar defamation lawsuits from voting software firms Dominion and Smartmatic for peddling false claims about widespread voter fraud.

  6. You’d think that Scott Morrison may have realised that, over Summer, less is more of him. Being in our faces all the time when we’ve all been trying to relax obviously hasn’t worked.

    Sure, let us know that he hasn’t jetted off to Hawaii, but snap Nat Cab meetings every 2 ups, which only see him routinely humiliated, isn’
    t a winning strategy for mine. For him either. 😀

  7. Labor seems to have figured out that you don’t have a small target policy, or a big target policy, but a suite of incremental targets, solidly based.

  11. max

    Based on the one sample we have (and thus obviously to be taken with a grain…) of multiple elections for a Teal/Voices candidate, it’s hard to pick a trend when it comes to their likely preference flows.

    The AEC calculates a separate 2PP result for indie held seats, which gives an idea of where the votes would have gone if the indie didn’t exist, which gives an indication of preference flows.

    In 2013, this showed no change to the Labor vote. (McGowan polled 31%).

    In 2016, there was nearly a 5% swing to Labor. (Well above the swing to Labor in Victoria and above the Federal swing). (McGowan polled 35%)

    In 2019, there was a massive swing away from Labor, of over 7%. (Haines polled 32%.

    I find it very hard to make sense of these numbers, particularly given that in 2016 and 2019 Labor had the same candidate.

    The only thing I can suggest was that, without Mirabella as the Liberal candidate, voters who had gone to the indie or ALP felt comfortable voting Liberal again. (The Libs had swing of 7%).

    (As a complete aside, it makes it all the stranger then that the Liberals don’t have a candidate here yet….)

  14. Some Covid news from Texas..

    • Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, an opponent of vaccine mandates, has tested positive for COVID, the Washington Post reported. It’s unclear whether Paxton was vaccinated or when he was infected, and his office reportedly did not reply to a request for comment. Paxton has opposed making vaccines compulsory for healthcare workers in facilities that receive Medicare and Medicaid funds, troops in the Texas National Guard and staff at Head Start programs.

    And breakthrough Omicron infections in the triple vaxxed…

    https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0140-6736%2822%2900090-3

  15. You’d think that Scott Morrison may have realised that, over Summer, less is more of him. Being in our faces all the time when we’ve all been trying to relax obviously hasn’t worked.

    Maybe he’s in that classic spiral for leaders on the nose: you feel you have to keep putting yourself out there to try to win the public over, only to repel the public even more with your constant appearances!

    Michelle Grattan wonders who the attack people will be for the coalition. There’s no more Mathias Cormann, Barnaby kicks more own goals for the govt than he does winning scores, and there’s no more JBishop to try and give the appearance the coalition understands what is important to women voters.

  19. The disunity in NATO in responding to Russia’s designs on the Ukraine was inevitable.

    There’s the SDP/Green coalition in Berlin on the one hand but there’s also a smarting Macron in Paris.

    “ This is a familiar French refrain, but if the US finds it dispiriting, it should review the wisdom of going behind France’s back to sign the Aukus nuclear submarine deal to confront China in September, leaving France humiliated. In diplomacy, loyalty has to be earned, not just demanded.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/20/biden-lays-bare-nato-divisions-over-russia-aggression-in-ukraine

  21. Birmingham is sent out to clean up Morrison’s mess again, this time re minors driving forklifts.

    (wtte) the “trucking association” [which one, certainly not the TWU] made the suggestion but it was rejected by national cabinet, including by the PM himself”.

    (Commercial radio news)

  22. zoomster says:
    Friday, January 21, 2022 at 7:24 am
    max

    Based on the one sample we have (and thus obviously to be taken with a grain…) of multiple elections for a Teal/Voices candidate, it’s hard to pick a trend when it comes to their likely preference flows….
    ———
    Thanks zoomster. Yes that info does suggest that headline 2PP needs to be treated with particular caution at the moment, and you’re right, the large “other”component will presumably include a large number of Teals. It’s also complicated by the fact that there might well be many poll respondents out there who like the idea of the Teals in principle, but who won’t actually have a Teal or credible independent in their own electorate.

  23. Caught me again, William! 🙂

    Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    Michelle Grattan explains why she thinks the Morrison government is nowhere near ready to win an election.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-21/morrison-election-ministerial-problems/100771584
    More on the Resolve poll from David Crowe who tells us that Albanese has gained an edge over Morrison on climate change policy ahead of the next election, with 37 per cent of voters backing the Labor target to cut carbon emissions while 22 per cent prefer the government goal.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-has-climate-policy-edge-over-coalition-solid-support-for-greens-20220120-p59pyc.html
    Mark McGowan has delayed the WA’s reopening over fears lagging booster vaccination rates will cause the Omicron variant to run rampant in the community.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/west-australian-premier-mark-mcgowan-calls-7-30pm-press-conference-20220120-p59q0s.html
    One of the Queenslanders Prime Minister Scott Morrison relies on to pass laws in the Senate has labelled his own leader “pathetic” and accused him of caving in over his criticism of rogue LNP MP George Christensen. Of course, it was Gerard Rennick, another Senate star.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/pathetic-morrison-under-fire-from-federal-colleague-20220120-p59px2.html
    Young Australians have been disproportionately affected by the pandemic, and they are understandably angry. David Crowe wonders if they will mobilise to deliver an electoral backlash.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/furious-youthquake-may-rock-political-foundations-20220120-p59ppu.html
    Dana Daniel and Mike Foley report on yesterday’s national cabinet meeting which didn’t seem to have produced anything momentous.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/no-reduction-to-household-contact-isolation-time-as-health-experts-advise-caution-20220120-p59ps2.html
    Scott Morrison has abandoned a proposal to allow children to drive forklifts after it was rejected by states and territories and criticised as a dangerous “brain fart” by unions, writes Ben Butler.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jan/20/unpalletable-scott-morrison-hits-reverse-on-plan-to-allow-under-18s-to-drive-forklifts
    Jordan Baker and Tom Rabe report that, as the wait for NSW’s back-to-school plan continues ahead of next week’s reopening, teachers and principals worry they are not being given enough time to prepare.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/nsw-recruits-emergency-teachers-as-schools-safeguard-rats-20220120-p59pzb.html
    General practitioners are again being flooded with patients as thousands of Victorians race to book their booster shots and medical clinics struggle to find appointments for the rising wave of coronavirus patients.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/gps-hammered-as-code-brown-brings-chaotic-scenes-to-local-clinics-20220120-p59pxs.html
    Two million rapid antigen tests could be produced in Australia every week under a pitch to use existing facilities for local manufacturing while the country continues to grapple with major test shortages. The peak body representing major suppliers says accredited plants could start manufacturing tests within six months, calling for a government commitment to purchase local tests in future if such a plan was commenced.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/calls-for-local-manufacturing-of-rats-amid-pitch-to-produce-two-million-a-week-within-six-months-20220120-p59put.html
    As Australians struggle to access RATs tests, Greg Hunt and Scott Morrison have publicly denied allegations of stockpiling. Michelle Pini and David Donovan report.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/exclusive-no-rats-left-to-give,15957
    The Independent Australia has detailed mounting evidence suggesting that the Morrison Government – caught out without an adequate plan to supply the community with RATs kits as promised – is stockpiling tests ordered by pharmacies and others in the community who did plan in advance.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/we-smell-a-rat,15959
    Meanwhile, Melissa Coburn tells us why she is giving up her daily RAT-hunt.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/why-i-m-giving-up-my-daily-rat-hunt-20220120-p59pqe.html
    Rents have reached record highs in our biggest cities and many regional areas, leaving lower income earners and essential workers – many of whom are keeping the country going amid surging coronavirus case numbers – struggling to find affordable rental properties, explains Kate Burke.
    https://www.smh.com.au/property/news/rental-tragedy-pricing-out-essential-workers-keeping-cities-running-20220119-p59pd6.html
    Michael Pascoe writes that the grants corruption rolls on, with bias in bowls too.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/2022/01/21/michael-pascoe-grants-corruption-bowls/
    Jenny Noyes reports that the decision to grant a visa to British far-right commentator Katie Hopkins last year is under investigation by the Australian Human Rights Commission following a complaint by a Muslim advocacy group.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/human-rights-commission-investigates-granting-of-visa-to-katie-hopkins-20220118-p59p6v.html
    Angela Macdonald-Smith reports that history will be made next week when Australia ships the world’s first cargo of liquid hydrogen, an event that will mark a milestone in a looming transformation of exports with one of the country’s most important partners amid the energy transition.
    https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/this-ship-is-carrying-australia-s-energy-future-at-minus-253c-20220119-p59pfp
    LNG producers insist they bankroll crucial government services — but the royalties they pay are paltry and the jobs they create are relatively few, explains Michael Mazengarb.
    https://johnmenadue.com/token-taxes-the-gas-industrys-great-royalties-ripoff/
    Elizabeth Knight tells us why Alan Joyce has declared war on his cabin crew.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/risky-business-why-joyce-has-declared-war-on-his-cabin-crew-20220120-p59pvz.html
    The SMH editorial says that, while Australian politics can often seem absurd, the “partygate” scandal now threatening to drag down British Prime Minister Boris Johnson raises the bar a notch for hypocrisy and arrogance by senior members of a government.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/britain-s-partygate-scandal-raises-the-bar-for-political-hypocrisy-20220120-p59pyi.html
    A damning report has found the former pope, Benedict XVI, failed to take action against clerics in four cases of alleged sexual abuse when he was archbishop of Munich.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/damning-report-finds-former-pope-benedict-failed-to-act-over-munich-sex-abuse-20220121-p59q1v.html
    The US president’s first year has disappointed progressive supporters and generated little in the way of positive developments on the world stage, writes Mack Williams who rhinks 2022 looks daunting for Biden.
    https://johnmenadue.com/bidens-honeymoon-is-over-and-2022-looks-daunting/
    Eryk Bagshaw informs us that the Beijing Olympic Committee has warned that dedicated departments will be able to punish athletes who protest at the Winter Olympics, escalating concerns about the safety of international competitors two weeks out from the start of the Games.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/certain-punishment-beijing-warns-olympians-against-protesting-20220120-p59puj.html

    Cartoon Corner

    Peter Broelman


    Cathy Wilcox

    Alan Moir

    Matt Golding



    John Shakespeare

    Mark David

    Simon Letch

    Andrew Dyson

    Leak

    From the US












  24. Herald Sun21/01
    The Premier also ruled out a return to remote learning, and said Victorian school settings would align closely with those in NSW.
    _____________________
    Align closely Zoomster !
    Let’s have none of this NSW is letting it rip whilst Victoria is taking a more conservative approach crap.

  25. I have to say that if there is one tell that the Government is in big trouble politically, it’s this forklift stuff. That was the kind of brainfart that someone who is on the political back foot and desperate would produce. A more politically comfortable leader would take the time to form a detailed policy and maybe do a bit of testing of their messaging so they don’t accidentally sound like they’re proposing child labour.

  30. After the calamitous last four weeks of government Morgan registers a miserly half percentage point tick to Labor? I was expecting more to be honest but I guess it’s a positive sign when you can be dissatisfied with a 56-44 TPP.

    Can William confirm that the poll was entirely conducted in January?

  31. So, for a little interest. Scenario: ALP wins next Fed Election at say a uniform 53/47 2pp. Who out of the flotsam becomes Opposition Leader? My money is on Dutton. But I could see there being a huge battle by Morrison to retain the leadership – it’s not like him to take responsibility…

  32. From the letters section of today’s SMH. Surely written in jest… or not?

    “Scott Morrison is a statesman and an articulate leader on the world stage (Letters January 20). He can deal with our troubled world affairs, and Australia can be proud of him. Unfortunately Albanese lacks verbal acuteness. Who wants a boring speaker trying to verbalise through clenched teeth. My vote is for the PM – Catherine Connolly, Manly”

    Catherine – is your real name Karen perchance?

    Letter of the year … to date.

  35. Grant_ExLibris @ #32 Friday, January 21st, 2022 – 8:22 am

    From the letters section of today’s SMH. Surely written in jest… or not?

    “Scott Morrison is a statesman and an articulate leader on the world stage (Letters January 20). He can deal with our troubled world affairs, and Australia can be proud of him. Unfortunately Albanese lacks verbal acuteness. Who wants a boring speaker trying to verbalise through clenched teeth. My vote is for the PM – Catherine Connolly, Manly”

    Catherine – is your real name Karen perchance?

    Letter of the year … to date.

    I have a 2nd cousin(?) with that name and possibly in that part of Sydney. Her mother was a bit of a RWNJ in later years

  36. And now we have HoJo with a welcome intervention….


    Former coalition treasurer Joe Hockey has slammed as “absurd” the Morrison government’s failure to take up an offer by Brisbane-based company Ellume to supply rapid antigen tests.

    Hockey told 2GB’s Ben Fordham this morning:

    It’s very frustrating for Australia because Ellume are now are exporting 100,000 tests every day to the United States because the US government backed them and the Australian government didn’t.

    Hockey, who was appointed Australia’s ambassador to the US and has lately become a business consultant, said Ellume first approached him in August 2020 saying they had a rapid test for the flu that could send results to the digital cloud within 15 minutes.

    He said they should test for Covid, knowing that, for instance, the US navy wouldn’t send a ship to sea if there was a case on board and so there would be demand for such a quick resulting test.

    “The US government gave emergency approval to Ellume … and then backed it up with more than $US260m (A$360m),” Hockey said, with a plant built in the US state of Maryland producing 500,000 tests a day.

    “I felt it was absurd. It was the Department of Industry, not the Department of Health or TGA, but the Department of Industry that wasn’t prepared to back Ellume at that time but the United States government did.

    “When you have an incredible technology in an emergency situation, you’ve got to do what is in the best interest of the country and that there was a process and the Department of Industry basically walked away.”

  40. Morison and his cronies still have no plan/s to get Australia out of this mess , Morrison will eventually have to go to the governor general within 4 months to set the date of the federal election.

  43. One would think that the only people who put the Coalition ahead on climate policy would be the “climate change is crap” crowd. A lot of voters seem to have been fooled.

  45. Re Scott @8:43. ”[Morrison] and his cronies still have no plan/s to get Australia out of this mess…”

    The plan is to plow on regardless, look after mates and selected voter cohorts. Further, with the help of media allies, lie about the mess, hide it or distract the punters from it.

  48. Grant_ExLibris says:
    Friday, January 21, 2022 at 8:22 am
    From the letters sectionof today’s SMH. Surely written in jest… or not?

    ******

    Might be an associate of George Fishman who usually can come up with a. supporting letter to balance the nasty people who write such awful things about our PM. He’s from Vaucluse so he has his finger on the pulse of ordinary Australians.

    Good on WA, they are geographically able to do what they are doing and it’s obviously popular with sand gropers. They obviously have enough fork lifts to see them through.

  50. Steve777 says:
    Friday, January 21, 2022 at 8:49 am

    One would think that the only people who put the Coalition ahead on climate policy would be the “climate change is crap” crowd. A lot of voters seem to have been fooled.

    Then there are Labor-phobic ideologues and reactionaries, such as our own P1.

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