Morgan: 56-44 to Labor

A second pollster emerges to suggest the summer break has done little to improve the situation for the Morrison government.

Roy Morgan has become the second pollster to emerge from the summer break, maintaining its recent form in crediting Labor with a 56-44 two-party lead, out from 55.5-44.5 in the previous poll. As before, this is souped up by a much stronger flow of respondent-allocated preferences than Labor managed at the 2019 election. Both the Coalition and Labor are steady on the primary vote, at 34.5% and 37% respectively, with the Greens up half a point to 12% (strong support for the Greens being another feature of the Morgan series). One Nation is down a point to 3% and Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party is steady on all of half of a point, whereas it managed 3.4% in 2019.

The “previous poll” used for the basis of comparison here wasn’t actually published at the time, as noted by a keen-eyed observer on Twitter. Morgan’s last published poll from last year was from the last weekend in November and the first weekend in December, whereas the results tables on the website include a further result for the two weeks subsequently.

The state two-party breakdowns credit Labor with leads of 58-42 in New South Wales, a swing of around 10%; 59-41 in Victoria, a swing of around 6%; 51-49 in Western Australia, a swing of around 6.5%; 60.5-39.5 in South Australia, a swing of around 10%; and 60.5-39.5 in Tasmania, a swing of around 4.5%. However, the poll has the Coalition ahead 51.5-48.5 in Queensland, which is still a swing to Labor of around 7%. Whereas Morgan’s past polling combined results from two weekends, here we are told that polling was conducted between January 4 and 16.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,089 comments on “Morgan: 56-44 to Labor”

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  3. sprocket_
    Daily Tellmecrap’s only ‘covid headline’ is in the Sport section . Record deaths ? Must be fake news.

    Tennis star allowed into Australia despite having Covid

  6. Morning all. Thanks William for the poll analysis, which must make uncomfortable reading in LNP dungeons.

    Thanks BK for the roundup. I would highlight this story if Labor is looking for how to pay for new policies. Though at this point I don’t think Albor should do anything other than point out how corrupt their opponents are, and how unlikely Morrison election promises are to be enacted.

    “LNG producers insist they bankroll crucial government services — but the royalties they pay are paltry and the jobs they create are relatively few, explains Michael Mazengarb.”
    https://johnmenadue.com/token-taxes-the-gas-industrys-great-royalties-ripoff/

  9. Victoria’s COVID-19 hospitalisations are sitting at 1,096, down from 1,206 reported on Thursday, and a further 20 deaths have been reported.

    Of the patients in hospital, there are 121 in intensive care, 34 of whom are on ventilators.

    There are now at least 252,399 active cases in the state.

    The state has officially recorded 18,167 new COVID-19 infections, but the true number of new cases in the community is much higher.

    The new cases were reported from 10,023 PCR results and 8,144 at-home rapid antigen tests (RATs).

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-21/victoria-covid-case-numbers-hospitalisations-deaths-omicron/100771774

  11. Sprocket

    “ Poroti, the Herald Scum will go to town on Dan Andrews Covid failure…”

    I doubt the Herald Sun will ever forgive Andrews for stuffing up both the Afghan evacuation and the Vaccine supply contract.

    And they don’t want to hear excuses that they are not State responsibilities.

  13. Socrates @ #56 Friday, January 21st, 2022 – 9:10 am

    Morning all. Thanks William for the poll analysis, which must make uncomfortable reading in LNP dungeons.

    Thanks BK for the roundup. I would highlight this story if Labor is looking for how to pay for new policies. Though at this point I don’t think Albor should do anything other than point out how corrupt their opponents are, and how unlikely Morrison election promises are to be enacted.

    “LNG producers insist they bankroll crucial government services — but the royalties they pay are paltry and the jobs they create are relatively few, explains Michael Mazengarb.”
    https://johnmenadue.com/token-taxes-the-gas-industrys-great-royalties-ripoff/

    I’m thinking that will be a ‘No’ from Labor…Remembers the campaign against the Resource Rent Tax.

  18. C/- The Guardian.

    Chance to renew Riverdancing

    “Nightclubs will reopen again in Northern Ireland next week, as the province’s regional assembly ends a ban on dancing that has lasted a month.

    The Stormont executive agreed that nightclubs will be permitted to open from noon on Wednesday, 26 January. They were closed on 26 December, the same date a general ban on dancing and indoor standing events was imposed.

    Under the new regime, Covid certifications will still be needed to get into nightclubs and larger indoor unseated or partially seated events. For other settings the certification will no longer be required but its use encouraged.

    The remaining Covid restrictions in Northern Ireland will be reviewed by the Stormont executive on 10 February, according to the PA Media news agency.”

  19. Morning all,

    Tomorrow is going to be the last day of UK Cartoons for about a week – I’ll be on a beach somewhere – how good is that? If anybody wants to put them up over that period, they can be found at https://twitter.com/Cartoon4sale
    I hope you all appreciate this daily dose of fine art.

    UK Cartoons:








  20. The West Australian may be switching a bit from its general support for McGowan
    The front page heading is “658 DAYS AND HE’S STILL NOT READY” . The capitals are theirs.
    Inside there’s some analysis under the heading “Dithering shows two years wasted.”
    I guess in response McGowan might say “46 deaths in NSW yesterday.”

  21. Asha @ #65 Friday, January 21st, 2022 – 9:21 am

    C@t:

    Pretty sure Robertson is red on that image. The blue one at the bottom looks like Berowra.

    Phew! Yeah. Mackellar, actually (Northern Beaches of Sydney). I was misled when it said ‘Central Coast/Newcastle’ and just assumed my electorate was on the bottom of the coast, but it seems that the Northern Beaches have been included. They will not be amused. 😀

  22. Rossmcg @ #70 Friday, January 21st, 2022 – 9:25 am

    The West Australian may be switching a bit from its general support for McGowan
    The front page heading is “658 DAYS AND HE’S STILL NOT READY” . The capitals are theirs.
    Inside there’s some analysis under the heading “Dithering shows two years wasted.”
    I guess in response McGowan might say “46 deaths in NSW yesterday.”

    Or, okay, so tell me how many deaths you want before we get everyone fully vaccinated?

    Maybe The West just wants ScoMo to be able to visit?

  24. The January 6 committee are doing a great job
    owning the news cycle, day after day with some new snippet of information.

    Team Treason are having lots of trouble trying to counter it.

    Its great to see.

  25. States such as Victoria, NSW and Qld, really dont have the luxury of having borders closed indefinitely.

    Morrison’s job as leader of the country was to ensure that the national plan was supported by RATS, effective quarantine, ensuring transport logistics was going to be maintained.

    But he is more interested in shifting responsiblity to anyone but him.

  26. [‘WA Premier Mark McGowan has been lashed for delaying his promise to reopen borders…’]

    Not by most of his constituents, I’d hazard a guess. In the east, it’s been said that Omicron has likely peaked. Tell this to the families who’ve lost loved ones & the thousands who are in hospital:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/21/australias-omicron-wave-has-likely-peaked-in-nsw-and-victoria-some-experts-say

    And it’s a crying shame that the WA restrictions will inhibit Morrison’s travel to the west.

  27. This would be wonderful to see – 94 seats to the ALP. However, I still don’t have faith in Australian’s to make the right choice come the election.

    At this stage, I would be happy with a majority of 4 on election night.

    C@tmomma @ #60 Friday, January 21st, 2022 – 9:14 am

    sprocket_ @ #51 Friday, January 21st, 2022 – 9:06 am

    Joshua Clarke from Wollongong Uni has plugged the Morgan numbers into the electorate map..

    WTH!?! 56-44 and we still don’t snag Robertson!?! And we have a fantastic candidate! Oh well, hopefully it will be a surprise addition on the night. 🙁

  28. laughtong @ #35 Friday, January 21st, 2022 – 8:27 am

    Grant_ExLibris @ #32 Friday, January 21st, 2022 – 8:22 am

    From the letters section of today’s SMH. Surely written in jest… or not?

    “Scott Morrison is a statesman and an articulate leader on the world stage (Letters January 20). He can deal with our troubled world affairs, and Australia can be proud of him. Unfortunately Albanese lacks verbal acuteness. Who wants a boring speaker trying to verbalise through clenched teeth. My vote is for the PM – Catherine Connolly, Manly”

    Catherine – is your real name Karen perchance?

    Letter of the year … to date.

    I have a 2nd cousin(?) with that name and possibly in that part of Sydney. Her mother was a bit of a RWNJ in later years

    Because you’ve got to be able to articulate your mistakes clearly and minimise them away to a singularity? 😆

  29. Mavis

    The exemptions for travel to WA include politicians.
    Morrison can come any time he wants.
    Plenty of business as usual here. He could visit workplaces for phot ops and drive forklifts even.

  31. Mavis

    And it’s a crying shame that the WA restrictions will inhibit Morrison’s travel to the west.

    Sadly pollies get ‘pass’, so Bullshit Man will be able to cross the border 🙁

    Who will be allowed to enter WA?
    ………………….Commonwealth and state officials, members of parliament, diplomats and people with court proceedings will be allowed to enter.

  33. A pleasure to hear McGowan’s speech with no mention of “pushing through”, resilience, or “this phase of the pandemic”.

  34. More Roman Paedophile Protection Society news for GG, from his favourite bigot.
    ___________________
    Sydney Morning Herald.
    Damning report finds former pope Benedict failed to act over Munich sex abuse By Madeline Chambers January 21, 2022 — 1.42am

    Berlin: A damning report has found the former pope, Benedict XVI, failed to take action against clerics in four cases of alleged sexual abuse when he was archbishop of Munich.

    The archdiocese in 2020 asked Munich law firm Westpfahl Spilker Wastl (WSW) to investigate allegations of sexual abuse in its ranks between 1945 and 2019.

    The report, released on Thursday (local time), said there were at least 497 victims of abuse, mainly young males. Many other cases had probably not been reported, it said.

    It also found fault with the current Archbishop of Munich, Cardinal Reinhard Marx, 68, in two suspected cases. Marx is not under any suspicion of having actually participated in abuse.

    Cardinal Marx’s offer of resignation last year was rejected by Pope Francis.
    _______________

    The current pope continues the protection tradition. A wonderful thing, tradition. Not so good for the victims, but we mustn’t interfere with the Cardinals’ protection of the RPPS’s wealth.

  35. Why is there no corresponding drop in ICU numbers when we get such a high death rate, are they in some sort of palliative care or non-resuscitation aged care facility.

  36. sprocket_ @ #14 Friday, January 21st, 2022 – 6:33 am

    And breakthrough Omicron infections in the triple vaxxed…

    https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0140-6736%2822%2900090-3

    Ultimately, I think we’re going to have to move on from double- and triple-vaxxed as concepts. Even now it’s only moderately useful. Vaccine effectiveness decays with time. New virus strains appear. How many times you were vaxxed 12 months ago won’t be relevant. What will stay relevant is how long ago you were vaxxed with an approved vaccine against the current “outbreak”.

    My limited language/marketing skills haven’t dug up a simple term for this. The best I’ve got atm is “staying vaxxed-up”. I’m “still vaxxed-up”. My “vaxx-tank is full”. (Yeah. I’m struggling a bit.)

  39. So much of the reporting this morning is on the WA Health system simply not being up to scratch .
    You really have to wonder what McGowan has been doing for the last 2 years.

  40. C@tmomma: “I don’t think The Herald Sun and 3AW will ever forgive Dan Andrews for being born!”

    That just about sums it up. Murdoch has met his match.

  42. Tom @ #31 Friday, January 21st, 2022 – 7:20 am

    So, for a little interest. Scenario: ALP wins next Fed Election at say a uniform 53/47 2pp. Who out of the flotsam becomes Opposition Leader? My money is on Dutton. But I could see there being a huge battle by Morrison to retain the leadership – it’s not like him to take responsibility…

    Dutton, assuming he retains his seat. He’s got a cushion.
    https://www.pollbludger.net/fed2022/HR.htm?s=Dickson

  44. Two reactions to McGowan in WA…One is a grumpy one from the West newspaper (which fewer and fewer read) and incandescent rage (mostly phoney) from Liam Bartlett on 6PR radio who sees himself as someone McGowan should be answerable to……….Half of the 8% of listen to radio 6PR from 9 am until 12 will fling abuse at McGowan, led by warrior Bartlett, while others will continue to think McGowan has done the right thing…..

  45. My limited language/marketing skills haven’t dug up a simple term for this. The best I’ve got atm is “staying vaxxed-up”. I’m “still vaxxed-up”. My “vaxx-tank is full”. (Yeah. I’m struggling a bit.)

    Max-vaxxed.

  46. How much time does McGowan need to get ready. Massive royalty checks, one road in and a 1000km desert have saved him so far but he may have to finally get to work.

  48. Scott writes:

    Morison and his cronies still have no plan/s to get Australia out of this mess…

    Part of the problem of being Scott Morrison is that he views admitting error as a weakness. You might squeeze an admission on a minor point out of him on a “We all make mistakes” basis, but never on the national scale issues.

    Therefore, having a plan “to get Australia out of this mess”, in that it involves conceding there is a mess, will never happen, because it is an admission of error, not just in the moment, but over the past two years, tacitly accepting responsibility for every death, illness failed business and vocational burnout due to Covid. Just not going to happen.

    Morrison never saw a clusterfuck that he reckoned he couldn’t talk his way out of. But he’s met his match trying to talk his way out of being Scott Morrison.

    It always ends this way for him. And it’s happening again.

  49. C@tmomma @ #60 Friday, January 21st, 2022 – 9:14 am

    sprocket_ @ #51 Friday, January 21st, 2022 – 9:06 am

    Joshua Clarke from Wollongong Uni has plugged the Morgan numbers into the electorate map..

    WTH!?! 56-44 and we still don’t snag Robertson!?! And we have a fantastic candidate! Oh well, hopefully it will be a surprise addition on the night. 🙁

    Hi C@t. The map shows Robertson to Labor. The blue bit on ‘Central Coast and Newcastle is Hornsby etc. Look at the shape of the lakes and inlets. Brisbane Water is right there, in the middle of Robertson. Broken Bay is between red Robertson and the blue bit.

  50. Taylormade says:
    Friday, January 21, 2022 at 10:03 am

    Fuck off Taylor

    What the actual duck you are talking about? You either got the wrong Government or your ducking head is so up your ass.

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