Roy Morgan has become the second pollster to emerge from the summer break, maintaining its recent form in crediting Labor with a 56-44 two-party lead, out from 55.5-44.5 in the previous poll. As before, this is souped up by a much stronger flow of respondent-allocated preferences than Labor managed at the 2019 election. Both the Coalition and Labor are steady on the primary vote, at 34.5% and 37% respectively, with the Greens up half a point to 12% (strong support for the Greens being another feature of the Morgan series). One Nation is down a point to 3% and Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party is steady on all of half of a point, whereas it managed 3.4% in 2019.
The “previous poll” used for the basis of comparison here wasn’t actually published at the time, as noted by a keen-eyed observer on Twitter. Morgan’s last published poll from last year was from the last weekend in November and the first weekend in December, whereas the results tables on the website include a further result for the two weeks subsequently.
The state two-party breakdowns credit Labor with leads of 58-42 in New South Wales, a swing of around 10%; 59-41 in Victoria, a swing of around 6%; 51-49 in Western Australia, a swing of around 6.5%; 60.5-39.5 in South Australia, a swing of around 10%; and 60.5-39.5 in Tasmania, a swing of around 4.5%. However, the poll has the Coalition ahead 51.5-48.5 in Queensland, which is still a swing to Labor of around 7%. Whereas Morgan’s past polling combined results from two weekends, here we are told that polling was conducted between January 4 and 16.
And in answer to “what McGowan has been doing for the past two years” the answer is the same as most other State leaders but with a tighter castle to defend……..
Sandgropia admits to good fortune and good management in Covid….
Of course, the “what has McGowan done in the past two years” question is double-edged because if aimed at Morrison, it demonstrates rank failure on his behalf and his band of poor operators in Canberra……
Got to hand it to Liberal stooges…like chewing gum on the boot….hard to get rid of and a pain……..
Steelydan at 10:08 am
It goes without saying you did not bother to listen to what he said. If you did then a very very important point he made several times went right over your head. To fling all the doors open while it is raging over East will produce a massive seeding of the plague here by the hordes of %#@%! Plague Rats that fly in. Do you see the problem with that ? The economy has been travelling along quite nicely without covid here so to suddenly emulate the ‘let ‘er rip’ fuckers after seeing what that causes would take a Lib-Nat level of stupidity.
Chant trying to put lipstick on a pig. Trying to back up that prick of a premier.
“I think surface sniffing was a contributor to the Avalon cluste”
Hokey dokey! Please, tell us more about your social circle, Shellbell.
Taylormade
Lucky there is no liberal party state government in W.A or Victoria , the federal and NSW Lib/nats have shown what would happen if there were
No plan to help
Live with the virus , if you get sick / die from the virus just bad luck
steve davis says:
Friday, January 21, 2022 at 10:18 am
She should just lash out.
I would have done so already.
All part of Essential Morrison, it’s why nothing is ever his fault . Not making a decision ensures you never make a wrong decision. Having no plans means that your plans never fail.
Max-Vaxxed. I can say that. Max-Vaxxed. Rolls nicely. Thanks Jaeger.
Steely writes:
That fistula between Steely’s mouth and his arsehole is getting another solid workout today.
There is no “getting to work” on Omicron and Delta. There is only sickness and death if you let them in the door.
There is no glory in opening up your state to this kind of misery if it can be avoided. And it has been avoided successfully so far.
WA is a living, breathing repudiation of the “Let ‘er rip” philosophy of, first, NSW and then, by inevitable contamination, the other eastern states. I doubt whether McGowan will be too keen to bring plague into his state just to take the heat off NSW and Morrison, or to satisfy some hairy chested notion that accepting the death of your citizens and the crippling of your economy is the “adult” way of running a government. Even the Opposition in WA, which can by now literally fit into a telephone booth, has gone quiet on the subject.
Change your undies, Steely. You’re talking shit again.
The map shows a clear LNP victory on surface area. No need to look any closer.
Had a look at Bludgertrack. Too early to tell, but I hope we’re not starting to see the first signs of herding.
Fully sick vaxxed
McGowan would be stupid while all resources available are being used to deal with the disaster back east.
The right time is when all in WA are triple vaxed and things have calmed down in the east ( which they will).
Perrottet competing with Morrison for the Bullshitter in Chief title.
The ALP has never got a TPP of 54% the highest was the result was the 1983 election with 53.2% the highest ever result. The Libs have got over 54% 5 times the last two against Gough.
There is not that feeling in the electorate yet to get anywhere near 54% your well in front but not 54%
“ The map shows a clear LNP victory on surface area. No need to look any closer.”
Yeah, but neither cows or kangaroos get to vote.
Steam Phallus:
“ The ALP has never got a TPP of 54% the highest was the result was the 1983 election with 53.2% the highest ever result.”
Ahem:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1946_Australian_federal_election
Late Riser @ #92 Friday, January 21st, 2022 – 10:05 am
That would be my guess too, but will the power dynamics in the coalition change after they have been punished by the electorate? It’s only a fool that tries the same experiment several times expecting a different result each time and I think, currently, that’s in the coalition DNA.
We got our boosters (Moderna) yesterday.
I’d also booked the grandson in (three weeks ago), on the bet that even though he’s only at 3 months and 1 week since his 2nd shot, by the time yesterday’s appointment came up the “3 month” limit would have been introduced.
I was patting myself on the back that, with Perrotet’s Wednesday announcement, I had judged it so well, until the lady doing the jabs (at a local Priceline pharmacy) told me that an announcement by Dom Perrotet is not “official notification”. She had been stung too many times believing “Health management by press release” PR stunts from Premiers, Prime Ministers and various Health ministries.
So, unfortunately, the grandson remains un-boosted, for the sake of one day, and a missing official notification.
Maddening.
The electoral map of WA appears to be out of date…to still include Stirling, which has been abolished.
Spent the morning defending Albo to a Labor voting-Morrison-hater who thinks Albanese is to dull and weak to overcome the Bullshitter in Chief.
1943 was better than 1946
Did you wipe the mirror afterward?
Peter Dutton has as much charisma as a potato!
And he knows it. It’s why last time he tried for the leadership of the Liberals he made a point in his press conference of saying, see I can smile! 😆
Mundo has been standing on street corners talking to himself again.
You should see someone about that Mundo. There are tablets you can take nowadays, therapies, treatments. They don’t just lock you up anymore.
Wat Tyler recently called for polling for SA. It’s ironical then that this week we mourned the loss of political scientist Dean Jaensch, whose Flinders University polls used to inform us so well in the lead-up to a state election.
Back to my hobby horse. Morgan indicates that Sturt may be just about lineball, but sluggardly Labor does not yet have a candidate. You’d think they might give it a try, if only to boost the Senate vote..
Smart move, WA. 🙂
Bushfire BIll
“There is no “getting to work” on Omicron and Delta. There is only sickness and death if you let them in the door.”
This comment says it all. There is a tremendous amount of work to do and the more a State does the less sickness and death.
“I doubt whether McGowan will be too keen to bring plague into his state just to take the heat off NSW and Morrison” really!!! I mean wow
I must always remember the mind of Bushfire Bill your comments about Morrison fake crying over the death of a child says everything about you, being capable of this type of thinking, your mind is next level warped hatred you are incapable of sensible thought about politics when you hate like you do.
Of course the next LOTO, IF it’s the Coalition and that’s a very big IF because the Coalition do election campaigns very well (though I think Labor have been able to figure out their secret sauce to a very great extent), will be Josh Frydenburg.
It just makes sense that, if you have a Centre Left government, then your LOTO needs to be able to encourage swingers in the middle back to your column and a Moderate Liberal like Frydenburg, especially as he is from Victoria, and boy do the Liberals need someone to shore up their vote in Victoria, would be the best they could do as far as this goes.
Anyway, he’s obviously been groomed to lead the Liberals as he is the Treasurer.
Steelydan says:
Friday, January 21, 2022 at 10:08 am
How much time does McGowan need to get ready. Massive royalty checks, one road in and a 1000km desert have saved him so far but he may have to finally get to work.
Of course, MacGowan has kept covid out of WA til now. He’s made it possible for us to have a largely normal existence without widespread illness or revolving lockdowns. He has the overwhelming support of the community in this.
SA had been doing even better…until they succumbed to the ideological pressure from Morrison.
Morrison has absolutely failed to mount a rational and organised response to covid. He and the LNP will likely be severely penalised for it.
mundo defending Albo? 😆
Of course Liberal supporters want McGowan to open up so Morrison and Perrottet do not look as bad.
As soon as Dan opened up, members on here (who shall remain unnamed but one who rhymes with pan, can and tan), jumped at the opportunity of saying VIC was in a worse position than NSW.
It’s all politics.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #117 Friday, January 21st, 2022 – 10:34 am
I see your 1946 and raise you a 1943 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1943_Australian_federal_election
Over the back half of last year, polling seemed to firm for Labor, with the 2PP edging out from something like 51-49 to something like 53-47, with primaries of Coalition 36/37, ALP 36/37, Greens 10 and others about 15. In normal circumstances, you’d expect those figures to tighten a bit over the summer, but as we know, this hasn’t been your normal summer, and from the sketchy polling evidence so far in 2022, it looks like the Coalition has gone backwards by a few points, while Labor has firmed up. The new normal for the 2PP is probably now closer to 54-46.
That doesn’t make Labor a sure thing by any means, but you’d certainly prefer to be in Albanese’s polling position than you would Morrison’s. The problem for the Coalition is that they are running out of time. For a long time I thought we’d get an election in March, but I think we can all agree that’s now off the table, and I’d now be shocked if election day was any time before the last possible date of 21st May.
This gives the government probably two openings, and they’d really need everything to go right for them (and even then it might be too little too late). First of all, the current Covid surge will need to deflate reasonably quickly. There is some evidence that the curve is starting to flatten and decline over recent days, though of course case numbers are still at a much higher level than anything we’ve experienced before. Public perceptions of the course of the summer surge will likely be greatly influenced by how the return to school goes next month: if this doesn’t lead to a huge resurgence of cases, the government will probably breath a big sigh of relief, but if it triggers another surge, then public perceptions of the government’s incompetence will get a bit too baked in to be ignored.
The other opportunity they have is of course the Budget. There’s no doubt that the government has some billions squirrelled away for election announcements, though I’m not so sure how big an effect these will have, as the scope for anything groundbreaking is probably limited, and of course, we need to remember that this is a government will very limited imagination. The Coalition’s best bet is, like last time, to demonise the alternative, but Albanese has spent much of this term scraping the barnacles off the good ship Labor, and they won’t have anything like the opportunities of 2019.
In short, the Coalition’s election chances are poor, and declining. I’ve been a Labor voting Rabbitohs fan for long enough to expect disappointment, but it’s hard to see how the government can turn it around in time, especially given the margin for error is razor thin anyway. Labor can probably expect to pick up a couple of seats in WA (Swan and Hasluck), one in Victoria (Chisholm), and one in Tassie (Bass), while Longman in Queensland is also likely. That’s five of the required seven, and so the election result will rest, as usual, on the rugby league states of NSW and Queensland.
My guess at this stage is a solid majority for Labor, around 80/81 seats.
Maybe one of the peak health bodies should step in to stop the AMA acting in this way:
”
AMA President
@amapresident
·
9h
Gutted…. Seems WA Premier
@MarkMcGowanMP
is a one trick pony when it comes to #COVID19. Hard border with the rest of the country and world remains despite almost 90% vacced. Many of us both shocked/disappointed and relieved at the same time.”
Questions may be asked as to whether Khorshid is qualified to express this and the associated views which follow (I don’t think he is), who he is purporting to represent and whether what is ostensibly a professional association is acting professionally in operating a hide profile media strategy which just bashes away at any and all decision makers.
“Smart move, WA. ”
WEll…yes.
Postponing opening up and removing all restrictions on travel (which is what Morriscum wants) is something that probably would have had implications for the resource industry and exports.
FIFO has settled down to operating in a covid threatened environment and is working for now. There is some serious money in W.A. that wants that to continue.
And, whatever you think of McGowans reasons, at least he is leading a Govt that seems to have been open and honest on the reasons for their decisions and is treating the people who elected it as adults.
Bit of a difference from what the Feds are doing. 🙁
Steelydan says:
Friday, January 21, 2022 at 10:08 am
How much time does McGowan need to get ready
For Omicron ? Thanks to your useless mates in NSW and Canberra just a few weeks. First case in Aus 8th December and the rest is history.
Tricot @ #95 Friday, January 21st, 2022 – 10:06 am
Because they’re at work, not retirees listening to Liam Bartlett. 😀
Shellbell
McGowan explained why 3 vaxxes are needed. AMA doesn’t like being sidelined?
C@tmomma @ #29 Friday, January 21st, 2022 – 10:50 am
Wherever and whenever without hesitation.
Just so you know.
C@tmomma @ #26 Friday, January 21st, 2022 – 10:46 am
Albo’ll do him slowly.
Shellbell at 10:54 am
The local AMA chap was recently quoted as hoping McGowan did not go ahead with the plan for the Feb. 5th leaping out from under the doona . So another East-West divide.
Lizzie
If there is a worse professional organisation in Oz, I would be surprised.
Steelydan @ #86 Friday, January 21st, 2022 – 9:55 am
New patients coming into ICU, obviously. 😐
My wife has chosen to return to school this year despite being eligible to retire. We have daily conversations about the dangers posed by the ‘babysitter’ approach to education management.
She is a teacher-librarian who teaches all 300+ students in the school and although returning for 3 days per week she is worried about it.
When schools in our rural town returned for the last week of term 3 in 2021, it took one day for Covid to shut them down again…what will happen this time?
She has one kidney , having donated one to her brother and this saw her sent home during the lockdown in early 2021.
Why can’t the politicians wait…why can’t they see what their policies have done. The best I can come up with is that they are like the generals in WWI who just kept sending the troops ‘over the top’.
poroti
Isn’t Khorshid a proud WAer?
I know he is – he is an expert in one of my dodgy hip replacement claims!
porotisays:
Friday, January 21, 2022 at 10:17 am
Steelydan at 10:08 am
It goes without saying you did not bother to listen to what he said. If you did then a very very important point he made several times went right over your head. To fling all the doors open while it is raging over East will produce a massive seeding of the plague here by the hordes of %#@%! Plague Rats that fly in. Do you see the problem with that ? The economy has been travelling along quite nicely without covid here so to suddenly emulate the ‘let ‘er rip’ fuckers after seeing what that causes would take a Lib-Nat level of stupidity.
What are you on about. I said he should have been working harder in the last two years to get the State ready, if he has not got the State ready to open then don’t open. He obviously believes WA is not ready so he has opted to keep the place shut. Your comments have fuck all to do with my comment.
Why can’t the politicians wait…
Mark McGowan has.
Sad to hear about how your wife’s noble sacrifice for her brother has incapacitated her during Covid, Dog’s Brunch. Hopefully she can work in a well-ventilated classroom and the school enforces all the physical Covid minimisation measures possible. Though, as someone observed yesterday, it’s pretty hard to get little kids to socially distance.
Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
Friday, January 21, 2022 at 10:34 am
Steam Phallus:
“ The ALP has never got a TPP of 54% the highest was the result was the 1983 election with 53.2% the highest ever result.”
Ahem:
Sorry you are correct. I was working from Anthony Greens table which starts from 1949 https://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2004/guide/prefhistory.htm