Morgan: 56-44 to Labor

A second pollster emerges to suggest the summer break has done little to improve the situation for the Morrison government.

Roy Morgan has become the second pollster to emerge from the summer break, maintaining its recent form in crediting Labor with a 56-44 two-party lead, out from 55.5-44.5 in the previous poll. As before, this is souped up by a much stronger flow of respondent-allocated preferences than Labor managed at the 2019 election. Both the Coalition and Labor are steady on the primary vote, at 34.5% and 37% respectively, with the Greens up half a point to 12% (strong support for the Greens being another feature of the Morgan series). One Nation is down a point to 3% and Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party is steady on all of half of a point, whereas it managed 3.4% in 2019.

The “previous poll” used for the basis of comparison here wasn’t actually published at the time, as noted by a keen-eyed observer on Twitter. Morgan’s last published poll from last year was from the last weekend in November and the first weekend in December, whereas the results tables on the website include a further result for the two weeks subsequently.

The state two-party breakdowns credit Labor with leads of 58-42 in New South Wales, a swing of around 10%; 59-41 in Victoria, a swing of around 6%; 51-49 in Western Australia, a swing of around 6.5%; 60.5-39.5 in South Australia, a swing of around 10%; and 60.5-39.5 in Tasmania, a swing of around 4.5%. However, the poll has the Coalition ahead 51.5-48.5 in Queensland, which is still a swing to Labor of around 7%. Whereas Morgan’s past polling combined results from two weekends, here we are told that polling was conducted between January 4 and 16.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,089 comments on “Morgan: 56-44 to Labor”

Comments Page 54 of 62
1 … 53 54 55 … 62

  7. Grant_exlibris, Parnel P McGuiness hides her leanings very thinly. Her writing style is (for mine) laboured and not worth the effort of untangling. The Apple has not fallen far from old PP’s tree in this case. I’ve ignored her SHM ramblings in recent months, will continue to do so.
    ______
    Dog’s Brunch
    For a long time now I have given up linking her articles – let alone read them. She’s a strange one.

  8. 2GB in Sydney in full on outrage mode this morning, Ben Fordham calling on Grace Tame to give back her Australian of the Year 2021 honours, how dare she insult our PM and Jenny, along with the predictable orchestrated talkback callers all agreeing with Ben”I’m a Liberal” Fordham.
    Turned it off after 5 minutes.

  9. BK @ #2654 Wednesday, January 26th, 2022 – 9:46 am

    scmaltzy = schmaltzy (I think!)
    And William, is the edit function gone forever?

    If I’m unsure of spelling I just highlight the word and check it on google. The spelling is always the first thing that comes up. 🙂

    Also, as Bert explained to me, you can still edit but you have to get out of C+, edit in the old format, then go back into C+.

  12. Evan Parsons @ #2590 Wednesday, January 26th, 2022 – 9:52 am

    2GB in Sydney in full on outrage mode this morning, Ben Fordham calling on Grace Tame to give back her Australian of the Year 2021 honours, how dare she insult our PM and Jenny, along with the predictable orchestrated talkback callers all agreeing with Ben”I’m a Liberal” Fordham.
    Turned it off after 5 minutes.

    Faux outrage to gin up the rubes on Australia Day, when nothing else they tried before the day, worked.

    Did anyone happen to ring up and explain how poorly our first female PM was treated by Alan Jones and members of the Liberal Party? Thought not.

    Now THAT was disrespectful.

  17. Yep, still works for me. However, I did just note that I had to go into C+ to ‘override HTML comments’ and uncheck that box, then refresh the page to send it back to vanilla mode with the edit function. So maybe you need to install C+ to get it? In a roundabout way. 🙂

  20. Morrison “f—ed” Australia Day Eve by being a “big shot” with photographers at the Lodge.
    Let’s see what an Australia Day can add to Morrison’s litany of notable”f— ups”.
    A parody of “Kingswood Country” and “Sylvania Waters” no less.
    Imagine, no it’s all too much!!!!!!

  21. Who knows what’s going to happen in Ukraine. Maybe it’s a matter of expect the unexpected. I don’t know whether General Winter is still a major factor in that part of the world, which would make the coming Spring “interesting”.

    If things really go pear-shaped there or in other flashpoints, I hope the Coalition is out of office when they do.

  23. poroti says:
    Wednesday, January 26, 2022 at 9:55 am

    USA sending billions of dollars of military hardware to ukraine, so why are they calm?

    https://www.militarytimes.com/flashpoints/2022/01/24/nato-sends-ships-jets-east-ireland-rejects-russia-drills-over-ukraine-threat/

    BRUSSELS — NATO said Monday that it’s putting extra forces on standby and sending more ships and fighter jets to eastern Europe, as Ireland warned that new Russian war games off its coast are not welcome given tensions over whether President Vladimir Putin intends to attack Ukraine.

    The U.S.-led military organization said that it is beefing up its “deterrence” presence in the Baltic Sea area. Denmark is sending a frigate and deploying F-16 war planes to Lithuania; Spain will also send warships and could send fighter jets to Bulgaria; and France stands ready to send troops to Bulgaria.

  24. Happy Right Wing Triggered Day.

    The day when old and young white conservatives and bogans squeal at the hint of an indigenous Australian speaking up on history.

    Bonus today as well as they can also squeal at the temerity of a strong woman not bowing to power.

  25. I’d like to know more about Grace’s ring (stone), but MSM are losing their shit because it isn’t a diamond etc.

    Maybe it’s her birth month stone?

    Nah, the MSM are shitty because a “celebrity” didn’t give them the a press release in advance.

    And it is only the engagement ring. The wedding ring hasn’t appeared yet.

    And might I just add, the kulcha warriors are pathetic pos.

    Stones on the wedding band?! Hold me back! 😀

  26. From what I have read the Ukraine people despise the Russians. So, on the face of it they will fight to defend their sovereignty and independence. The US has already indicated they will supply arms to the Ukraine people in a long drawn out war of attrition that would face the invading Russians.

    At the end of the day, the US are asking the Russians how much pain they are prepared to bear to feed their Imperialistic intentions.

  27. BK,
    Dog’s Brunch
    For a long time now I have given up linking her articles – let alone read them. She’s a strange one.
    ******
    I subscribe to the SMH online but rarely read more than 5% each day…at least in that format the headlines of the articles give a better indication of the content of the article than the ‘click-bait’ news sites.

  28. Remember Parnell was editor of a short lived political website which was supposed to be the Liberal version of Get Up.

    ‘The task for McGuinness was to make ideas accessible, to reach out to undecided and swinging voters confronted with a flood of social media sites competing for their attention.’

    Lasted about three months (if that).

  29. Reading the conclusion to Waterford’s essay confirmed that he is just another cowed apologist for the Coalition.

    Week after week we have seen Waterford condemn Morrison, his tactics, his insincerity, his deceitfulness, his disloyalty and his government.

    Yet he writes Albanese and Labor off on the basis of Morrison’s incumbency: that we can forget the many sins of Morrison because he’s there, and so therefore Albo must still prove he’s better. Albo isn’t all that televisual, and he’s not out there whingeing at every turn like a child throwing a tantrum, wearing hi-viz and a hard hat, making curries and cubby houses. He doesn’t even spend billions of public money advertising himself, or hundreds of thousands employing and carting a photographer around on VIP jets to follow him everywhere he goes, snapping “à propos de ScoMo” pics. So how can he possibly manage to win an election? QED. Nice try, Albo.

    Waterford is careful not to overtly express an opinion on Albanese, as in “This is what I think about Albo”. He takes the coward’s way out of suggesting that it is the public – far less sophisticated, interested and collectively intelligent than he (often referred to as “the Common Herd”) – who will be fooled by Morrison, without reference to Albanese’s many qualities (reasonably listed by Waterford, to show he isn’t biased, then peremptorily dismissed as irrelevant).

    I love the way that the MSM political commentators, who fancy themselves and are touted as expert analysts and influential thinkers, do a Pontius Pilate when faced with the inevitable conclusion of their character and performance analysis of Scott Morrison (or any Liberal PM, in fact). Forced out of shame to admit that their man is a scheming, lying, fake, disloyal, incompetent, venal, fraudulent, bullying, thief and plunderer of public monies for partisan gain, they ignore this Barabbas right in front of them, and then proceed to instead sacrifice his Labor opponent to the screaming mob and its shock jock Pharisees.

    This is done on on the basis that nobody knows who the Labor leader is… as if it isn’t their job (at least their job as they advertise it) to give their readers exactly that information. If they don’t, who will? Which brings us back to the plundering of public money for partisan political purposes, and the commentariat’s role in acknowledging it (sometimes) before dismissing it as one of the benefits of incumbency.

    If you read Waterford’s column today you’ll find a few facts here and there, but nothing that he unearthed for himself, nothing, in other words that wasn’t on last night’s commercial TV news. The Commentariat believe they are above reporting. It’s their thinking that’s worth the big bucks. Funny how they all think the same, isn’t it?

    If their thinking goes little further than to suggest that, despite his egregious character and lying ways, Scott Morrison is the man to beat simply because he’s there and pretty good at skimming cream for his and his cronies’ benefit, and anyway, the other bloke hasn’t been Prime Minister before, then what is the point of them?

    The country’s gone to shit. It is ridden with plague. The government has officially announced it is against government. The Prime Minister is a phoney and a backstabber. Billions have been wasted on crony capitalists and self-promotion. Inflation is rampaging. Interest rates are about to rise. No-one who isn’t a millionaire can afford to buy a house. People have died in their thousands. We have seen failure after failure in both the generation and execution of policy, from Health, to Defence, to Womens’ Equality. Waterford admits all this, tut-tutting into his scotch and water.

    And then he tells us his readers don’t know enough about Anthony Albanese to justify booting the bastards out. Pontius Pilate will be cheering from Hell.

  31. citizensays:
    Wednesday, January 26, 2022 at 8:44 am
    “OK, you keep smiling or I’ll shove you and your wheelchair down the ramp.”

    No just a more mature person that understands that his responsibilities are more important than any personal bias he might have.

  32. Kevin Rudd:
    Morrison bungled Omicron. But in Murdoch’s parallel universe of ‘resets’, he went from strength to strength. Now the election strategy is to claim it’s all behind us—just trust us. Why would Australians ever trust Morrison with the next crisis, given his mishandling of the last one? Murdoch Media Royal Commission

  33. Covid Test positivity rates (PCR) are declining steadily in NSW, now down to 16% after peaking over 30% between the 6th – 13th of the month. New cases seem to be bumping along at about 20,000 a day.

  34. Bushfire Bill @ #2679 Wednesday, January 26th, 2022 – 10:15 am

    Reading the conclusion to Waterford’s essay confirmed that he is just another cowed apologist for the Coalition.

    Week after week we have seen Waterford condemn Morrison, his tactics, his insincerity, his deceitfulness, his disloyalty and his government.

    Yet he writes Albanese and Labor off on the basis of Morrison’s incumbency: that we can forget the many sins of Morrison because he’s there, and so therefore Albo must still prove he’s better. Albo isn’t all that televisual, and he’s not out there whingeing at every turn like a child throwing a tantrum, wearing hi-viz and a hard hat, making curries and cubby houses. He doesn’t even spend billions of public money advertising himself, or hundreds of thousands employing and carting a photographer around on VIP jets to follow him everywhere he goes, snapping “à propos de ScoMo” pics. So how can he possibly manage to win an election? QED. Nice try, Albo.

    Waterford is careful not to overtly express an opinion on Albanese, as in “This is what I think about Albo”. He takes the coward’s way out of suggesting that it is the public – far less sophisticated, interested and collectively intelligent than he (often referred to as “the Common Herd”) – who will be fooled by Morrison, without reference to Albanese’s many qualities (reasonably listed by Waterford, to show he isn’t biased, then peremptorily dismissed as irrelevant).

    I love the way that the MSM political commentators, who fancy themselves and are touted as expert analysts and influential thinkers, do a Pontius Pilate when faced with the inevitable conclusion of their character and performance analysis of Scott Morrison (or any Liberal PM, in fact). Forced out of shame to admit that their man is a scheming, lying, fake, disloyal, incompetent, venal, fraudulent, bullying, thief and plunderer of public monies for partisan gain, they ignore this Barabbas right in front of them, and then proceed to instead sacrifice his Labor opponent to the screaming mob and its shock jock Pharisees.

    This is done on on the basis that nobody knows who the Labor leader is… as if it isn’t their job (at least their job as they advertise it) to give their readers exactly that information. If they don’t, who will? Which brings us back to the plundering of public money for partisan political purposes, and the commentariat’s role in acknowledging it (sometimes) before dismissing it as one of the benefits of incumbency.

    If you read Waterford’s column today you’ll find a few facts here and there, but nothing that he unearthed for himself, nothing, in other words that wasn’t on last night’s commercial TV news. The Commentariat believe they are above reporting. It’s their thinking that’s worth the big bucks. Funny how they all think the same, isn’t it?

    If their thinking goes little further than to suggest that, despite his egregious character and lying ways, Scott Morrison is the man to beat simply because he’s there and pretty good at skimming cream for his and his cronies’ benefit, and anyway, the other bloke hasn’t been Prime Minister before, then what is the point of them?

    The country’s gone to shit. The government has officially announced it is against government. The Prime Minister is a phoney and a backstabber. Billions have been wasted on crony capitalists andxself-promotion. Inflation is rampaging. Interest rates are about to rise. No-one who isn’t a millionaire can afford to buy a house. People have died in their thousands. We have seen failure after failure in both the generation and execution of policy, from Health, to Defence, to Womens’ Equality. Waterford admits all this, tut-tutting into his scotch and water.

    And then he tells us his readers don’t know enough about Anthony Albanese to justify booting the bastards out. Pontius Pilate’s job is done.

    +1

  35. The game’s up for Morrison. The daggy bloke act just ain’t working any more. He’s a lazy, lying, smug, ideological, reactionary, cynical, do-nothing, know-nothing dumb-fuck hoax of a PM. If the Liberals don’t dispose of him first the voters certainly will.

  39. Bludging @ #2685 Wednesday, January 26th, 2022 – 10:03 am

    The game’s up for Morrison. The daggy bloke act just ain’t working any more. He’s a lazy, lying, smug, ideological, reactionary, cynical, do-nothing, know-nothing dumb-fuck hoax of a PM. If the Liberals don’t dispose of him first the voters certainly will.

    As I’ve said before, he thinks he presents himself as a down-to-earth Aussie bloke who’s daggy but still true blue but he actually just comes across as how a bunch of Sydney ad executives imagine someone like that is. He’s also an example of how the true test of a good captain is rough, not calm waters.

  40. And William, is the edit function gone forever?

    Seems to be working on my end.

    Do you happen to be using AR’s plug-in? That always disables editing for me.

  45. 2GB defending political correctness?

    They would have been livid no doubt about the then Opposition leader standing in front of a sign proclaiming Gillard a witch. And imagine their outrage at a commentator suggesting Gillard be thrown out to sea in a chaff bag….. oh, wait…

    Tame isn’t political at all. She has a cause. A cause that saw her selected into that role. commentators on the far right that see this an affront to the PM are correct. But they are the ones who then make this political rather than recognising she is merely fulfilling her role – defending and promoting her cause with strength and dignity. The people that she represents would be proud. We should all be proud.

    Well done that woman.

  47. Wat:

    Another big problem for Scomo is that as the public have gotten to know him better, the traits that originally made him the endearing “daggy dad” (at least to people who don’t obsessively follow politics like us losers) increasingly make him look like an insufferable wanker instead.

  49. Confessions says:
    Wednesday, January 26, 2022 at 9:32 am
    I haven’t read it, but I understand PvO wrote an article yesterday expressing similar sentiments as McGuinness.
    I understand where they’re coming from, but personally I think they miss the point with their preferred option of Tame staying away and thus being unseen and unheard. Isn’t that the point of her using her position to make a statement for the many women who are silenced by the patriarchy and institutional misogyny?
    —————-
    I thought I read that the purpose of the event was to acknowledge/celebrate the 2022 nominees for Australian of the Year. If so, I imagine Grace Tame would not want to stay away because doing that could be perceived as disrespecting them. The fact that she does not respect Morrison -a position that’s apparently shared with a hefty swag of the Australian population- does not mean she would not want to be present to show her support and appreciation for the other nominees.

  50. Re the Australian of the Year thing last night…

    Good on Dylan Alcott for advocating for better NDIS funding.

    Also, the Governor General was present. It is a State occasion. I’d love to see it de-politicised (Morrison couldn’t help himself in his faux-empathetic speech) by having the Governor General speak and present awards instead of the PM (regardless of the PM’s party.)

Comments Page 54 of 62
1 … 53 54 55 … 62

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *