Unless Roy Morgan is feeling ambitious, we’re unlikely to see new polling until mid-to-late January, although The Australian should have Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns immediately after Christmas. If breakdowns are your game, Essential Research now provides a mother lode of them for all its polling going back the start of 2020, with voting intention broken down by (mainland) state, gender, age cohort, work status and region (categorised as inner metro, outer metro, provincial and rural). With the availability of this data, it will become worth my while to again provide state-level polling trends in BludgerTrack, as was done before the 2019 election. So stay tuned for that. For the time being, Essential’s state and gender results are now included in my poll data archive.
A few other polling morsels to report:
• The latest EMRS poll of state voting intention in Tasmania snuck out last week without me noticing. It found little change on the last poll in August, with the Liberals steady on 49%, Labor down two to 26% and the Greens steady on 13%, which in turn differed little from the March election result of Liberal 48.7%, Labor 28.2% and Greens 12.4%. Peter Gutwein’s 59-28 lead over Rebecca White as preferred premier is likewise hardly changed from 59-29 last time. The poll was conducted November 28 to December 5 from a sample of 1000.
• JWS Research has released its latest True Issues survey on issue salience. Ratings for the government’s performance across a range of 20 issues are down across the board by zero to five points since July, with defence, security and terrorism and immigration remaining its strongest suits and cost of living and environment/climate change its weakest. Among many findings about COVID-19, the federal government is deemed to have performed well by 40% and poorly by 28%, while state and territory governments in aggregate are on 60% and 12% respectively, with both maintaining downward trends from a peak late last year. Cost of living and health are rated effectively equal as the issue the government should be most focused on, with 59% and 58% respectively including them among five choices out of a list of 20. The survey was conducted November 22 to November 24 from a sample of 1000.
• Recommended reading: Kevin Bonham on “the overrated impact of party preferencing decisions” and Alan Kohler on the Australian Electoral Commission.
“You’re mistaken about C@t”
***
Nah I’m really not hey.
I am telling you I have been abused by this person.
Bludging Bloos at 3:11 pm
It would however go down well with the ‘Freedumbers’ and their ilk. He must think it is an important demographic to virtue signal to.
The Voices candidates are campaigning on three major issues pretty well – climate change, ICAC and transparency.
Labor should say that it strongly agrees with these things and will do all it can to deal with them whether in absolute majority or not. This would represent a clear differentiation to the coalition and keep the focus on what are clearly the Coalition’s vulnerabilities.
Wat Tyler @ #1298 Tuesday, December 21st, 2021 – 3:32 pm
You’ve got a Psychiatry qualification as well that allows you to diagnose someone you’ve never met from two states away!?! What a talented individual you are.
With a Political Science degree. I bow down before your greatness.
Or, maybe you’re just another grub. Like the commenters you find common cause with, nath and Lars. Especially, it seems, when it comes to getting your jollies by agreeing with them when they criticise me.
So, you see, Wat Tyler, to ease your misery, there’s this thing called C+. Maybe you’ll finally get the blog experience you crave if you use it? 🙂
rhwombat
Although it was in news.com.au I should have noticed a very important clue as to its worth. The article came originally from the New York Post. A Mordor Media outlet that tends to hang out down the Fox News end of the swamp when it come to Covid-19 (and most other things).
R.D @3.16 pm:
I know too little about Bowman to comment on the viability or otherwise of a Voice candidate. My friends moved to the area from northern NSW a little over twelve months ago.
“You’ve got a Psychiatry qualification as well that allows you to diagnose someone you’ve never met from two states away!?! What a talented individual you are.”
***
Trump’s narcissism was obvious from the other side of the Pacific. One doesn’t need to be a psychiatrist to recognise a very disturbed individual.
Re Bennelong Lurker at 3.14 pm
The notorious Laming lost to Con Sciacca in 2001 while getting a 2% swing on his first attempt. He then got a 10.5% swing to win in 2004, but suffered an almost 9% swing in 2007 and survived by 64 votes. He may hold the record for the biggest negative swing for a sophomore member.
Laming got a big positive swing in 2010 but in 2013 was one of a handful of LNP members who went backwards (mostly in Qld, but also the member for Pearce). His primary vote in 2019 was 48.7%, only 2.5 % above his low point in 2007. Given his nastiness, there may be a legacy backlash against Pike.
Bowman is the 17th most marginal Qld seat and the 11th most marginal LNP seat in Qld. But it is much more achievable as a Labor gain than Leichhardt, which has a smaller margin of 4.2%.
A drop by 5% in the LNP primary, to less than 44%, combined with a reduction in the extreme right wing nutters’ vote (which was 13% in 2019) to well under 10%, likely because this electorate probably has a much greater than average proportion of retirees worried about Covid, will see Mr Pike reduced to a podium finish.
Firefox says:
Tuesday, December 21, 2021 at 3:33 pm
“You’re mistaken about C@t”
***
Nah I’m really not hey.
I am telling you I have been abused by this person.
If this is an allusion to off-bludger social postings and erroneous attributions (a la zoomster) then maybe you should desist.
Frankly, I’ve not seen anything directed towards you by any bludger that could be described as abuse.
On the very limited history we have for Voices candidates, they are best suited to rusted on Liberal seats where the current incumbent is on the nose. Voices is for voters who can’t bring themselves to vote Labor but can’t stand their current Liberal MP.
The other criteria seems to be that the current MP is also very well known (and not in a good way).
The rest is largely window dressing.
When are the media going to start asking about the number of elderly locked into their rooms in residential facilities because of the growing case numbers. How many families will spend Christmas without a cherished Elderly parent or grandparent. Working in aged care I know that for many residents the only time they see some members of their family is during the holiday season. This year they get to sit isolated and alone so that others can have their personal freedoms. Why are the elderly being denied their rights. The government has had almost two years to deal with the problems in aged care that result in the spread within a facility. Our parliamentarians are meant to rule for all and they have instead foisted draconian prison like measures on the innocent elderly, to satisfy the noisy minority who can’t get past their own personal importance to acknowledge that we live in a society that can only work if we consider others.
A portion of the mosaic I was talking about yesterday:
C@t is the leader of the largest faction on PB: the Labor Stooge faction. But we should all be a bit nicer at this time of year.
zoomster says:
Tuesday, December 21, 2021 at 3:54 pm
On the very limited history we have for Voices candidates, they are best suited to rusted on Liberal seats where the current incumbent is on the nose. Voices is for voters who can’t bring themselves to vote Labor but can’t stand their current Liberal MP.
Yes. Fratricidal electoral posturing between reactionaries.
“If this is an allusion to off-bludger social postings and erroneous attributions (a la zoomster) then maybe you should desist.
Frankly, I’ve not seen anything directed towards you by any bludger that could be described as abuse.”
***
Yes, like I said, you have missed what has been going on. Some have, some haven’t.
I was wrong about Zoomster’s involvement but right about everything else in relation to that issue and stand by the rest of my comments 100%.
Dr Doolittle @3.50 pm:
Thank you.
If enthusiasm counts for anything, then Pyke is in for a battle, as well the apparently unpleasant individual deserves. Here’s hoping.
The problem with Briefly is that he has no respect for the Great Middle Class of Australia. He calls these people Reactionaries. Growing up, we just referred to them as Protestants.
There has Shirley never been a worse individual politician let alone PM then #Scottyfrommarketing.
I cannot believe that there is a gap the size of the Grand Canyon between him and Abbott.
Although Abbott must be getting worried about losing the mantle as he keeps popping his head above the parapet.
z –
This doesn’t seem right to me.
Dave Sharma, eg, I don’t think has a particularly negative reputation in Wentworth – I don’t think many people have particularly strong feelings about him one way or the other. But Morrison and Joyce and Christensen and Canavan etc would be tough to swallow for those voters, and hence Sharma as their representative will probably suffer by association.
Falinski, Frydenberg, Zimmerman, etc … I don’t think there’s a lot of hate for these MPs out there, but there is a mismatch between what their electorates expect and what they have delivered/can deliver.
Perhaps the local liberal MP needs to be particularly offensive for these candidates to be successful – we’ll see soon enough – but the Voices are not just popping up against the Abbotts and Mirabellas.
Bludging Bloos @ #1309 Tuesday, December 21st, 2021 – 3:51 pm
Yet it was Firefox that abused zoomster continuously and aggressively, so much that it got him thrown off the blog. For a while. I see no recognition of that fact.
Firefox @ #1307 Tuesday, December 21st, 2021 – 2:48 pm
At least he’s out as vaccinated and boosted now.
That first bout of covid must have come damn close to killing him; instilled some real fear. Can’t see him getting vaccinated/boosted any other way.
ar
BINGO !
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/11/us/politics/trump-coronavirus.html
Aqualung @ #1318 Tuesday, December 21st, 2021 – 4:08 pm
The thing I can’t stand is that he behaves like a spokesmodel for whatever cause of the day he’s spruiking. Today it was skin cancer prevention methodologies. Complete with Cancer Council badge and matching Greg Hunt.
Is that really what a Prime Minister should be campaigning for re-election on?
The extra information that night sweats is a particular characteristic of Omicron is interesting, as it is also one of the strong reactions that some people have from the Pfizer vaxx. Just a thought.
Jackol
I’m talking criteria for success.
I’ve met a lot of independent candidates in my time. They all believed – and their supporters believed – that they were wonderful people and that they were a shoe in against the current incumbent, whom they also believed everyone else hated, even if only secretly.
I doubt that any Voices candidate will get up in a seat where the government might be on the nose but the local MP is only by association.
I’m probably going to be proven wrong, but once again, that’ll be because the present date is insufficient to base sound predictions on!
(Phelps wasn’t part of Voices).
…Phelps won on the traditional grounds indies tended to win on in the past, where the profile of the independent was higher than the profile of the major party candidate.
and in which the AMA call Perrottet “reckless”:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/dec/21/doctors-warn-nsw-premier-icu-covid-patient-numbers-not-only-metric-in-battling-omicron
There’s a lot going on. The article focuses on health worker fatigue and job walk-away. From where I sit, I see testing and the getting of results a major choke point. Fools like Abbott (et al, et al) talking about a nice normal Christmas without nasty interventional lockdowns ignore all the GPs and staff, the Chemists and staff, the Labs and staff, the Clinics and staff, the Hospitals and staff, who would normally, and with blessed relief, move on to more limited services at this time of year. But can’t, and instead face increasing pressures. Because reckless.
By the way (well, anything but actually) I see theatres and shows now being cancelled. Broadway is shutting down left right and centre. Omicron is now 75% dominant in the USA apparently.
“Yet it was Firefox that abused zoomster continuously and aggressively, so much that it got him thrown off the blog. For a while. I see no recognition of that fact.”
***
Which is something I have apologised for and deeply regret.
That doesn’t let you or Cud off the hook though.
You’re the ones who allowed Zoomster to take the blame for what you had done. You could have owned up to it and saved her from being blamed for your wrongdoings but being the cowards you are you let her take all the heat from me while you kept on stalking and abusing me. That’s what really happened.
One again, Zoomster, I am sorry. You didn’t deserve it.
C@tmomma @ #1323 Tuesday, December 21st, 2021 – 4:12 pm
He seems to be crowding out the relevant minister at these outings. A bit like 2019 when the entire cabinet disappeared from sight for the duration of the campaign.
Will it work twice?
His stat’s would suggest no.
I think that Scotty’s greatest achievement today was to demand that everyone takes responsibility for their own behaviour. Personal responsibility, repeated over and over.
When has he ever taken responsibility for himself?
You must admire his flair for self delusion.
”
The Toorak Toffsays:
Tuesday, December 21, 2021 at 2:43 pm
As a rusted-on ALP person, I welcome verbal intercourse with the enthusiastic Greens at the polling booth and usually given them my preferences.
I’m not so happy with the ALP, which fails to see opportunities in Sturt, where I live, and has not yet found a candidate. Perhaps more surprising, there is no candidate for the state seat of Hartley, within Sturt. Once the bailiwick of the late, great Terry Groom, and later held by his protege Grace Portolesi, Hartley needs only a 4 percent swing to return to Labor in March but is totally off the radar of the powers that be.
”
TTT
Sturt could be in play depending on the response of Marshall to Omicron.
Otherwise IMO, it is a safe Lib seat irrespective of ALP candidate.
Opening up for discussion
https://twitter.com/andrewlilley_au/status/1473124844485160960
nath says:
Tuesday, December 21, 2021 at 4:03 pm
The problem with Briefly is that he has no respect for …
Sock puppets or pimps….
Shellbell @ #1332 Tuesday, December 21st, 2021 – 4:19 pm
Shellbell @ #1332 Tuesday, December 21st, 2021 – 4:19 pm
What’s that all about shellbell? Case Fatality rate? I’m not very good at twitter, but is he saying CFR for Omicron is looking like half that for Delta?
Night sweats.
Summer in Sydney with high humidity. Might be hard to differentiate.
There were recent headlines about Bullshitman coming over to enlighten the Sandgroper peasantry and do a bit of election campaigning soon after the scheduled WA opening up in Feb. Thanks to he and Domicrom he might find the door being slammed in his face. Which would be so sad.
.
Coronavirus pandemic
WA ‘highly likely to be reviewing reopening decision’, AMA warns.
WA authorities are “highly likely” to be reviewing the state’s reopening date as concerns around the Omicron variant grow, according to Australia’s leading doctors’ lobby.
https://www.watoday.com.au/national/western-australia/wa-very-likely-reviewing-border-reopening-decision-ama-warns-20211221-p59jce.html
Sorry about the stutter.
poroti @ #1337 Tuesday, December 21st, 2021 – 4:28 pm
I’m sure Mark McGowan will be happy to deputise for Albo.
Any takers for Scotty?
ItzaDream
He means CHR which he corrects downthread – it is more the comments which are interesting at this early stage
Aqualung says:
Tuesday, December 21, 2021 at 4:30 pm
WA ‘highly likely to be reviewing reopening decision’, AMA warns.
WA authorities are “highly likely” to be reviewing the state’s reopening date as concerns around the Omicron variant grow, according to Australia’s leading doctors’ lobby.
https://www.watoday.com.au/national/western-australia/wa-very-likely-reviewing-border-reopening-decision-ama-warns-20211221-p59jce.html
I’m sure Mark McGowan will be happy to deputise for Albo.
Any takers for Scotty?
If the election is fought on covid in WA, the Liberals could well lose most of their seats. MacGowan v Morrison….the federal Lib PV could fall into the 20s.
Not to be contrary, but not really.
(mayo)
Drenching is as drenching does. I remember them as a child, the real thing, and Mum would come in, and change your pyjamas and bed linen. All that feeling cold when you’re hot viraemia stuff.
‘I’m sure Mark McGowan will be happy to deputise for Albo.
Any takers for Scotty?’
Don’t the Libs have all of two to choose from in WA?
Job fatigue and walk aways are a major problem in our health system
As I have said, these people are in PPE for 12 hour shifts tending who they tend for, attempting to keep them alive
It is a fierce working environment
The PPE aligned to the responsibility of the position means they cannot just take off their PPE and go for a sit down outside to chill
They get no breaks across their shifts
And there is the risk of becoming infected which means your shifts have to be filled by someone
And the nut job we have as a pm talks about sun screen
Send the Pentecostal back to his God makes babies pulpit
He is a very real and present danger to each and every Australian
Margie Court could fill in for Scotty in WA, she even has a candidate running
ItzaDream @ #1327 Tuesday, December 21st, 2021 – 4:15 pm
What expertise in Epidemiology and Pandemics does Tony Abbott have anyhow? All he is an expert in is mouthing off and gaslighting any situation.
What is the value of ‘a nice normal Christmas’, if your New Year present is COVID-19?
I can only add that Zali Steggall must be thanking her lucky stars that Tony Abbott has popped up again.
It’s also another example that Morrison has lost the Midas Touch if he thinks allowing Abbott to campaign for the Liberal Party is an electoral plus.
More:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/dec/21/covid-update-victoria-flags-reintroducing-common-sense-masks-after-act-mandates-them-indoors
Western NSW Health District Nurse Managers walked off the job for 2 hours today. They cited having to work 22 hour shifts because there was no one else available to do the job.
Sohar at 4:39 pm
An easy coin toss to decide. Here they all are……………….both of the ‘all’ .
Dr David Honey MLA
Libby Mettam MLA
Hurrah for the Liberal Party. They have achieved male female parliamentary parity 😆
https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/12/19/yuletide-polling-detritus/comment-page-27/#comment-3779263
To me the Fibs/ Nats had no further credibility after the whole 2014 Budget Emergency stunt (not that I ever forgot the 2010 there will be no carbon tax etc), when Tonicchio was still around, Fizza didn’t improve that with his 300 word slogans (or Nbnco), and then they went for Spinocchio.
Governance doesn’t seem to be an area of interest for him (and surprised the dereliction of duty, rorts, #metoo still means, if declining, PPM).
Wuflu deaths might be lowish, the whole quarantine, vax and app thing, well …
Climate, fail. (There was the early on tone setting of snoozing, skiving off and bumbling and stumbling, even with flooding, fires, weather extremes.)
Social support after corporate welfare, seriously, after Robodebt.
Powershift, no further comment necessary.
…
They don’t seem to be progressive on anything social, or conservative with taxpayer resources.
Either Libs lite or a progressive alliance of Greens/ Libs lite/ independents is what I’d like to see after the upcoming federal election. [Though I would cross vote between house and senate.]
And any party that goes for a mandatory and binding referendum on removing the colonial Union Jack off the flag will get a 1, provided they leave the royals.